Alberta politics, election thread

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Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture
Alberta politics, election thread

There is an increasing chance of an Alberta election this fall.  I think it's time for a thread about that.

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Regions: 
Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

A couple of links to get the thread started.

First, from the Edmonton Journal...

Quote:

Though Alberta New Democrats only have two MLAs - Notley and party leader Brian Mason - they have proven themselves two of the smartest politicians in the province.

 

And here is a link to the website for Shannon Phillips, who is running for office in Lethbridge West. The NDP did surprisingly well in Lethbridge in the federal election, and I'm told our federal results in Lethbridge West were near 40%.

 

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

And finally, the most recent polling from Environics:

PC: 54 (up from 47% in 2008)
Wildrose: 16 (up from 7%)
Lib: 13.5 (down from 26%)
NDP: 13.5 (up from 8.5%)
Alberta Party: 2.5 (did not exist in 2008)

 

Krago

May 2011 federal election results transposed onto the new Lethbridge provincial boundaries:

Lethbridge East - CONS 52%, NDP 30%, LIB 11%, GRN 4%, OTH 2%

Lethbridge West - CONS 46%, NDP 38%, LIB 9%, GRN 4%, OTH 2%

voice of the damned

Krago wrote:

May 2011 federal election results transposed onto the new Lethbridge provincial boundaries:

Lethbridge East - CONS 52%, NDP 30%, LIB 11%, GRN 4%, OTH 2%

Lethbridge West - CONS 46%, NDP 38%, LIB 9%, GRN 4%, OTH 2%

I know almost nothing about Lethbridge. Going by those results, it would seem that the federal Conservatives are less popular in the western parts of Lethbridge than in the eastern parts. What would you think accounts for this difference in voting habits?  

Stockholm

There is a big university in Lethbridge it might be situated on the west side?

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

Yes, I believe the U of L is in Lethbridge West.

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

Quote:
Hilda Noskey was a grandmother from a remote Alberta first nation, and passed away some five years ago. James is a cat. Rahim Jaffer is a former Conservative MP.

All are among the so-called "supporters" signed up this year by the Alberta Liberals.

A cat, a dead woman and a rival politician walk into the Liberal leadership race...

Sine Ziegler

I'm excited about Shannon Phillips as a candidate in Lethbridge for the prov election.

Aristotleded24

Lou Arab wrote:

And finally, the most recent polling from Environics:

PC: 54 (up from 47% in 2008)
Wildrose: 16 (up from 7%)
Lib: 13.5 (down from 26%)
NDP: 13.5 (up from 8.5%)

Alberta Party: 2.5 (did not exist in 2008)

Only the Alberta NDP appears to have its act together going into the next contest.

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

At the risk of being mocked for celebrating the fact we are in third place, well, WE'RE #3! Tongue out

The Liberal slide continues:

Quote:

Of decided voters, 39 per cent favoured the Conservatives, 30 per cent supported the Wildrose, New Democrats got 14 per cent and the Liberals 11. The Alberta Party was at four per cent.

Source

Aristotleded24

Lou Arab wrote:
At the risk of being mocked for celebrating the fact we are in third place, well, WE'RE #3! Tongue out

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IcGuHnw1sw]Cue the Alberta NDP theme song![/url]

Policywonk

Lou Arab wrote:

At the risk of being mocked for celebrating the fact we are in third place, well, WE'RE #3! Tongue out

The Liberal slide continues:

Quote:

Of decided voters, 39 per cent favoured the Conservatives, 30 per cent supported the Wildrose, New Democrats got 14 per cent and the Liberals 11. The Alberta Party was at four per cent.

Source

Not clear whether these polls were taken at the same time or not, only that they were in July. I think the Alberta Liberals are fast turning into a joke in any case. The Environics poll would suggest a massive Conservative majority with, depending on vote concentrations, the possibility of an NDP official opposition. The other poll would suggest, depending on vote concentrations, a much more modest Conservative majority or perhaps a minority (which would be fascinating) with a WR opposition.

Sine Ziegler

Is there going to be a Prov election in AB in November? 

Howard

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Lou Arab wrote:
At the risk of being mocked for celebrating the fact we are in third place, well, WE'RE #3! Tongue out

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IcGuHnw1sw]Cue the Alberta NDP theme song![/url]

If only Shania wasn't well known to be from Ontario, that song would work Wink

bagkitty bagkitty's picture

I see the Alberta Liberals have a new leader... former Conservative MLA Raj Sherman. Cue certain posters to come in and inform of us all the importance of merging the NDP with those same Liberals. Yell

 

 

West Coast Greeny

Conservative-turned-Independent Maverick-turned-Liberal Raj Sherman is now leader of the opposition. That is ... different.

Raj Sherman, for all his insanity, clearly has some kind of strange raw political talent. Even before he won the Liberal leadership, he was arguably the second most prominent opposition figure in Alberta. He has charisma, and a Layton-esque level of energy. In 5 months, he essentially staged a hostile takeover of what is still technically the largest opposition party in Alberta. He might be able to tap into what is a very large populist base in the province. So, I don't think I can rule out him leading the party back to the official opposition again.

The problem is Sherman is a Conservative. And inexperinced. And possibly insane. Leading a party that up to this point has identified itself as centrist and pragmatic and a government-in-waiting. Even if Sherman were to (very theoretically) pick up support the Liberal Party isn't lead by a liberal. This is a horrible, horrible day for small-l centrist Alberta liberals. However innumerous they are.

With the NDP having closed the gap with the Alberta Liberals in voter intent, and the Alberta Party serving as a second viable centrist vehicle, we'll be seeing anything from a small leak in supporters and organizers, to a complete implosion and realignment of the Opposition. So I don't think I can rule out him sinking the party to 5th before the election is even called either.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

He (Sherman) was on P&P tonight - Solomon said he was kicked out of the PC's because he dared to criticize the PC plan to totally privatize health care delivery in Alberta. He said he's going to run as Alberta Liberal leader on a platform of defending medicare. He's also running against PC mismanagement of the Alberta economy - running up a deficit while oil is $100 a barrel.

voice of the damned

Conservative-turned-Independent Maverick-turned-Liberal Raj Sherman is now leader of the opposition. That is ... different.

 

Well, the Tory-to-Liberal aspect isn't all THAT different. Nancy Betkowski was a very high-profile Tory(ran against Klein for the leadership) who left the ruling party, changed her surname to Macbeth, and then got elected Liberal leader.

Under her stewardship, the party went down to their usual defeat. They lost over half their seats in the one election she fought as leader.

I'm predicting the same fate for the Liberals under Raj, but I guess we'll wait and see.

 

 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Is Alberta the "Texas Of The North"?

Howard

Boom Boom wrote:

Is Alberta the "Texas Of The North"?

With Ted Morton as Rick Perry and Danielle Steele as Ron Paul Laughing

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

Former Alberta NDP Leader Ray Martin announced today he will run in Edmonton Glenora.  Ray had previously said he wouldn't run again, but was inspired by all the recent focus on the life of Jack Layton.

The riding is currently held by the Conservatives, but it's traditionally gone back and forth between the Liberals and Tories.  Based on the very hostile reaction on Twitter of the President of the Edmonton Glenora Liberals - Ray may just be a threat in the riding.

Stockholm

Why is Martin running there rather than in the riding he held and lost in the last election?

lil.Tommy

Because Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview already has a provincial NDP candidate in place, Deron Bilous

Edmonton-Manning would have made more sense... but there is a candidate in place there too, Cindy Olsen

Frankly, i think he had nowhere else to run, and Glenora was the best riding for the NDP to have a shot at electing a member. in 2004 NDP was 30% and 15% in 2008 (big Liberal/Tory battle) The Liberals are bitter/mad cause the NDP now has a) a big name candidate, b) they have NONE in place and are not gaining traction while the NDP is.

Anonymouse

I'm glad Ray Martin is throwing his hat back in the ring, he still has a lot to contribute. Edmonton-Glenora is an interesting riding. Does it not include Liberal leaning areas of Edmonton Centre? In other words, if the NDP won it provincially, or made inroads into those Liberal areas, it could help Lewis Cardinal if he ran there federally again? Also, how is a progressive supposed to have much sympathy for the Alberta Liberals anymore after they just elected Raj Sherman as leader? Laurie Blakeman, arguably the more progressive choice, finished third.

The ground is shifting in Alberta politics and I feel like the Liberals are getting increasingly squeezed. With progressive-leaning leaders like David Swan and Laurie Blakeman getting marginalised, centrist (and some progressive) Liberals drifting to the Alberta Party, and ex-Red Tories like Kevin Taft riding into the sunset, the NDP both provincially and federal could be on its way up.

lil.Tommy

Here is a good map of how the 2008 Votes were distributed: credit to Daveberta

 http://daveberta.ca/2010/06/new-electoral-boundaries-transposed-with-2008-results/

 Edmonton-Glenora is in the middle, looks like a backwards L (left of the square looking Edmonton Centre which is right in the middle). The centre/centre-right is now very cluttered up, Raj is populist for sure but will only attract soft conservatives, while the Liberals will lose their soft left flank to the NDP, the greens are gone and would be attracted more to the NDP than anyone else i would assume. The last poll gave the major momentum to the NDP who were tied with the Liberals.  

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/48012.html - is the poll-by-poll map from May... unfortunately it looks like most of the provincial area voted more Tory then anything while Edmonton Centre (prov) went more to the NDP

Anonymouse

lil.Tommy wrote:

Here is a good map of how the 2008 Votes were distributed: credit to Daveberta

 http://daveberta.ca/2010/06/new-electoral-boundaries-transposed-with-2008-results/

 Edmonton-Glenora is in the middle, looks like a backwards L (left of the square looking Edmonton Centre which is right in the middle). The centre/centre-right is now very cluttered up, Raj is populist for sure but will only attract soft conservatives, while the Liberals will lose their soft left flank to the NDP, the greens are gone and would be attracted more to the NDP than anyone else i would assume. The last poll gave the major momentum to the NDP who were tied with the Liberals.  

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/48012.html - is the poll-by-poll map from May... unfortunately it looks like most of the provincial area voted more Tory then anything while Edmonton Centre (prov) went more to the NDP

Thanks lil.Tommy, a few notes:

1) If you look in Edmonton Glenora near the river (e.g. in Glenora) the Federal Liberal vote is still very robust, as I would have guessed. This is where provincial NDP inroads would help the federal NDP. It will not be an easy task as these are better off voters.

2) There is some clear spillover of support from Edmonton Calder. That gives me hope for an NDP breakthrough in Edmonton.

3) I hope you are correct about the Greens. In the 2008 federal election, they outpolled the NDP in many areas, particularly in Calgary. Things seem to be looking up for the NDP in Edmonton, but what about Calgary? What about the core urban polls there where Nenshi came through, where the Liberals can compete? What about the NDP in the North and what about the NDP on reserve(s)? Is the NDP on the map in any of the obvious cultural rural/farming communities (e.g. Ukrainian, Polish, etc.)? What is the face of the NDP in a lot of the growing small towns (e.g. Red Deer and those within a half hours [no traffic] drive of Calgary)?

ETA: Where can one find out what ridings have nominated Alberta NDP candidates?

lil.Tommy

i find Daveberta a really good resource, i know hes a Liberal but i still find hes more about delivering the political news rather then taking a very partisan stand

http://daveberta.ca/alberta-election/ - list of nominated Candidates for all partites

The Greens were dissolved in 2009 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_of_Alberta

Edmonton seems to be the place where the NDP can be almost assured of some gains (Calder, Beverly-Clareview, now Glenora is in the fray too) They did really well in Lethbridge in May and there is buzz around Shannon Phillips Lethbridge West

Marc

Howard wrote:

With Ted Morton as Rick Perry and Danielle Steele as Ron Paul Laughing

Laughing

I normally try to avoid joking about someone's typos but Danielle Steele made me laugh. Danielle Smith's platform is more Stephen King than Danielle Steele. Tongue out

outwest

Quote: "The riding is currently held by the Conservatives, but it's traditionally gone back and forth between the Liberals and Tories.  Based on the very hostile reaction on Twitter of the President of the Edmonton Glenora Liberals - Ray may just be a threat in the riding."

.... or the president of the Liberals might just be shaking his head at the potential vote split that will no doubt occur, allowing the Tories, to surprise surprise! walk up the middle to win.

ghoris

Anybody have any intel on the Tory leadership race? I was discussing it with a friend who hails from Calgary, and he expected that the top two finishers would be Mar and Morton, in that order, and likely Mar would not have 50% on the first ballot to win. It seems that whoever finishes third will be key. If it's someone like Horner, we could have a repeat of the Stelmach scenario where the third-place candidate picks up the support of the candidates who drop off the ballot, and becomes the compromise candidate. If it's Redford, that probably guarantees a Mar win, as she will not likely pick up enough support from the dropped candidates to vault over Morton into second, and when she is dropped off the second ballot her preferences would likely go to Mar.

Seems to me that for whatever reason, Gary Mar is not as 'polarizing' as Jim Dinning was among the grassroots, so at this point it's probably his to lose. Anyone else have any thoughts?

Stockholm

From an NDP point of views - who do we WANT to win the Alberta PC leadership?

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

outwest wrote:

Quote: "The riding is currently held by the Conservatives, but it's traditionally gone back and forth between the Liberals and Tories.  Based on the very hostile reaction on Twitter of the President of the Edmonton Glenora Liberals - Ray may just be a threat in the riding."

.... or the president of the Liberals might just be shaking his head at the potential vote split that will no doubt occur, allowing the Tories, to surprise surprise! walk up the middle to win.

Here we go again.

In 2004, the NDP ran a high profile candidate in Edmonton Glenora.  The result?  Liberals came first, NDP a few hundred votes back, and the PC incumbant came third.

In 2008, the NDP ran a much smaller campaign in Edmonton Glenora. That time,  the PC candidate came first, Liberals second, and the NDP third.

For the one millionth time - Liberal and NDP votes are not all from the same pool.  Strong NDP campaigns equal strong results for the NDP. Period.

Howard

Marc wrote:

Howard wrote:

With Ted Morton as Rick Perry and Danielle Steele as Ron Paul Laughing

Laughing

I normally try to avoid joking about someone's typos but Danielle Steele made me laugh. Danielle Smith's platform is more Stephen King than Danielle Steele. Tongue out

Lol. Shows how much I care for her politics Laughing

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

PC Leadership first ballot
10/93 reporting:

Mar 44%
Redford 18%
Horner 14%
Morton 13%
Griffiths 6%
Orman 5%

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

And turnout is way down from previous PC leadership votes.

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

14/87 ridings reporting:

Mar 37%
Horner 28%
Morton 12%
Redford 14%
Griffiths 5%
Orman 4%

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

20/87 ridings reporting:

Mar 36%
Horner 25%
Morton 14%
Redford 14%
Orman 6%
Griffiths 5%

ghoris

Jeez, this is taking forever! Guess they need to pump up those bar sales at the convention centre...

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

30/87 ridings:

Mar 35%
Horner 25%
Redford 15%
Morton 13%
Orman 7%
Griffiths 5%

Howard

30/87 reporting

Mar 35%

Horner 25%

Redford 15%

Morton 13%

Orman 7%

Griffiths 5%

Howard

Morton is getting crushed. Did his people take out memberships with the WRA? Is he a man without a party? Has his support not been counted yet? Is he yesterday's man? Whatever the answer...non-Morton Premier sounds good :)

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

45/87 ridings:

Gary Mar - 8498 - 36%
Alison Redford - 5018 - 21%
Doug Horner - 4290 - 18%
Ted Morton - 3300 - 14%
Orman 1,661 7.0%
Griff 1,010 4.2%

Krago

Final 1st ballot results:

 

Gary Mar - 24,318 - 41%

Alison Redford - 11,147 - 19%

Doug Horner - 8,648 - 15%

Ted Morton - 6,969 - 12%

Rick Orman - 6,010 - 10%

Doug Griffiths - 2,445 - 4%

 

robbie_dee

Surprised to see Ted Morton drop off after the first ballot. Heard that turnover was quite low. Has the right wing of the PCs just abandoned the party for Wildrose?

What's the story on the top three contenders? Is Mar a shoo-in to win the second ballot now, or could the numbers shift between now and then?

Krago

In both the last two Alberta PC leadership contests, the leading candidate on the first ballot lost.

 

1992 Leadership Election

 

First Ballot (Nov. 28, 1992)

 

Nancy Betkowski 16,393

Ralph Klein 16,392

Rick Orman 7,649

Doug Main 5,053

John Oldring 2,789

Lloyd Quantz 1,488

Ruben Nelson 1,250

Elaine McCoy 1,115

David King 587

 

Second Ballot (Dec. 5, 1992)

 

Ralph Klein 46,245

Nancy Betkowski 31,722

Rick Orman 284

 

2006 Leadership Election

 

First Ballot (Nov. 25, 2006)

 

Jim Dinning 29,470

Ted Morton 25,614

Ed Stelmach 14,967

Lyle Oberg 11,638

Dave Hancock 7,595

Mark Norris 6,789

Victor Doerksen 873

Gary McPherson 744

 

Second Ballot (Dec. 2, 2006)

 

Ed Stelmach 51,764

Jim Dinning 51,282

Ted Morton 41,243

 

Third Ballot (Morton eliminated, second preferences distributed)

 

Ed Stelmach 77,577

Jim Dinning 55,509

 

bekayne

Krago wrote:

In both the last two Alberta PC leadership contests, the leading candidate on the first ballot lost.

Difference is 1st place has more support than 2nd & 3rd combined

lil.Tommy

(removed, repost of poll above)

Marc

All of the defeated candidates have tossed their support behind Mar.

It looks like a fairly steep hill to climb to be able for either Redford or Horner to try to overtake Mar at this point. However, the PCs have a strange system in that they don't have a membership cutoff. If Redford or Horner can sign up (and turnout) a ton of new members, they might have a chance because if Mar still doesn't have 50% on the second ballot, they go to a preferential system. From what I can tell, Redford's and Horner's supporters would list each others candidates ahead of Mar and this could possibly (but probably won't) push them past Mar.

I don't really expect any of Morton's or Orman's supporters to show up at the ballot box again. Even though Griffiths backed Mar, I believe that his supporters won't follow him but will look at either Horner or Redford.

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

Edmonton-Gold Bar Liberal MLA Hugh MacDonald announced today he will not run in the next election.  The riding is entirely within the boundaries of the federal constituency of Edmonton Strathcona.  The re-distributed riding includes good portions of provincial Strathcona and Edmonton Mill Creek. If you re-distribute the federal results, the NDP loses, but only by a few hundred votes.  In a three way race, it's hard to say how it will play out.

The NDP already has a candidate nominated, Marlin Schmidt.  Marlin has already been working very hard and has a great team around him.  I met with a few members of the team to help them put together a campaign plan (now out the window with MacDonald's resignation) and I was impressed with how much they have accomplished already.

One more in an increasingly long list of ridings the NDP can win in the next election.

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

Edmonton Centre Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman, while pledging to run again, made some comments I can only call bizzare:

Quote:
"I'll admit that I'm trying to figure out what my place in the caucus is," Blakeman said. "I have, I'm sure, the same questions that must have gone through Hugh's mind."

"I'm circling. I'm trying to figure out how I can best serve people. And I have a commitment to my constituency board, and I said I would run again and I'm determined to hold to that commitment. But I'm also trying to figure out how do I do this?

"And bottom line is how much fun is that going to be if I just get pushed off to the side and I'm supposed to be the queen mother? Good Lord, I couldn't do that."

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