Alberta Polls starting April 2, 2019

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NorthReport
Alberta Polls starting April 2, 2019

UCP 45%

NDP 40%

I don't think the NDP are down 5%.

I think there is a 5% difference which actually is very good news for Notley and the NDP.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_general_election#Opinion_polling

NorthReport

We all know EKOS it has a track record.

------------------------

What or who is Janet Brown Opinion Research?

What's the principle's background?

What is their track record for forecasting elections? 

-----------------------------------

- Mar 20

https://thinkhq.ca/albertas-provincial-campaign-begins/

robbie_dee

Eric Grenier's poll aggregator currently has the Conservatives forecasted at 47.8% and the NDP forecasted at 37.7% but he has not included either the EKOS/Unifor or Janet Brown/Global Petroleum Show numbers in his average as of yet.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/alberta/

bekayne

robbie_dee wrote:

Eric Grenier's poll aggregator currently has the Conservatives forecasted at 47.8% and the NDP forecasted at 37.7% but he has not included either the EKOS/Unifor or Janet Brown/Global Petroleum Show numbers in his average as of yet.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/alberta/

Grenier's not using the EKOS poll, here's his explanation:

https://twitter.com/EricGrenierCBC/status/1112767915584049154

robbie_dee

I wonder if he will take the same position with Janet Brown? There does seem to be a dearth of truly "independent" polls so far.

NorthReport

Wikipedia shows all the polls, we don't need nonsense from Grenier.

Brown's poll is an outlier.

It is also very common for right-winger affiliated pollsters to appear around electiontime to try and confuse the voters, even more than they already are.

Excluding the right-wing Exxons of the world polling, Notley's chances of winning are looking quite remarkable, considering how she was being written off not that long ago.

The 2 most recent polls by-the-way show the NDP within 5% and 4% of  first place, and possibly quite close, considering the margins of errors.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_general_election#Opinion_polling

robbie_dee

NorthReport wrote:

Wikipedia shows all the polls, we don't need nonsense from Grenier.

Brown's poll is an outlier.

It is also very common for right-winger affiliated pollsters to appear around electiontime to try and confuse the voters, even more than they already are.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_general_election#Opinion_polling

I'm not sure how you can say Brown's poll is an outlier when there's only been three polls in the past two weeks and her results are broadly consistent with the results of the practically every poll that we've been seeing for the past two years before now. I like Rachel Notley and I think her government deserves to be reelected. I think Jason Kenney is shady. But it may well be that the people of Alberta feel differently. The economy's been rough there for the last four years and governments tend to get blamed for that regardless of how much control they have over it. Alberta had a long history of electing right wing governments before 2015. People there lean more conservative. There are a lot of reasons why voters might choose to overlook some relatively "inside baseball" scandals about where Jason Kenney lived while he was an MP or how exactly he went about winning an internal party leadership election to get where he is now. The social issues can cut two ways, or they simply might not cut at all. Maybe this will just be an "it's the economy, stupid" election.

NorthReport

I am not saying necessarily that I am right and you are wrong. I'm just discussing what the polls are saying right now.

Look at the chart which shows momentum which is big factor in elections.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_general_election#Opinion_polling

Why did you leave out the part of my post that says the 2 most recent (unaffiliated with the oil industry) polls show only a 4% and 5% difference between 2nd and 1st place?

45% vs 50%

42% vs 46%

NorthReport

Leger is quite right-wing n'est-ce pas? What can Notley do now to close the gap?

New poll shows UCP with nine-point lead over NDP

https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/new-poll-shows-ucp-with-9-point-lead-over-ndp

robbie_dee

I think the NDP has a good chance of receiving a similar share of the vote to 2015 (~40%) but that just won't cut it now that the right is united behind Kenney's UCP. IMO the NDP's best hope is to hold their base in Edmonton with a foothold in Calgary, stay united in opposition and wait and hope that the internal contradictions of the UCP eventually break it up and give the NDP another shot in four years.

voice of the damned

robbie_dee wrote:
I think the NDP has a good chance of receiving a similar share of the vote to 2015 (~40%) but that just won't cut it now that the right is united behind Kenney's UCP. IMO the NDP's best hope is to hold their base in Edmonton with a foothold in Calgary, stay united in opposition and wait and hope that the internal contradictions of the UCP eventually break it up and give the NDP another shot in four years.

I agree with most of what you've written here, as well as your earlier comments about this ending up as a clintonian "economy, stupid" election.

But it'll be interesting to see how those "internal contradictions" in any UCP government play themselves out. A lot of it might depend on how many seats Kenney does manage to win in more liberal areas, giving him an in-house shadow-cabinet of Lougheed-style conservatives.

 

 

 

NorthReport
epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

How Alberta kept Fort McKay First Nation in the dark about a toxic cloud from the oilsands

Just before 2 a.m. on June 20, 2016, a foul-smelling cloud of toxic chemicals from a Syncrude oilsands plant began slowly drifting north towards the hamlet of Fort McKay, 10 kilometres away.

Six weeks earlier, devastating wildfires ripped through Fort McMurray, forcing a massive evacuation of the oil town and an emergency shutdown of the company’s Mildred Lake plant. By late June, workers were trying to restart the operation.

It didn’t go as planned.

An estimated 10,400 barrels of untreated petrochemicals were released into a waste pond. It created a plume of toxic air that could cause headaches and possibly long-term health risks for anyone on its path.

“This is an unprecedented event,” wrote an Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) scientist in an email obtained through freedom-of-information legislation.

“Definitely going to cause headaches, etc. for those breathing it in.”

Two hours after he sent that email, federal officials at Health Canada decided to issue an air quality advisory for Fort McKay.

Insiders from within the Alberta Energy Regulator would later say that the incident highlights one of the key problems facing the oil-rich province, which has long-claimed to have the strongest environmental regulations in the world. They say that pressure and lobbying from industry and economic interests are trumping science and strong oversight, putting public health and safety at risk.

quote:

Companies 'pushed back'

The AER/Alberta Health study, published September 2016, included recommendations for improving air quality that are still in progress. It did not mention the Syncrude release that happened a few months earlier.

AER scientists “were not allowed” to include it, or to publish the draft report about the incident that was obtained by the investigation, said the AER insider.

The AER said “finalizing the (draft report) was no longer necessary” because it publicly released the AER/Alberta Health study.

In March 2017, the AER fired the toxicologist who warned Fort McKay about the plume and co-authored the unreleased report, Monique Dubé. The scientist hired to replace her as chief environmental scientist has degrees in economics and engineering, according to his LinkedIn.

“The AER is conflicted. Its dual mandate to both grow the industry and protect the environment means having to choose one over the other,” said McMurray Métis president Gail Gallupe in a statement responding to Dubé’s firing.

“With (Dubé) as chief environment scientist, we knew that we had a serious voice for the environment within the AER. We worry now that her voice is gone.”

The AER has said said it’s “confident” in the current chief scientist’s abilities, but it has declined to comment on Dubé's departure.

On June 20, 2016, many Fort McKay residents hadn’t yet returned home from the wildfire evacuations. Aside from a short local news story — which didn’t mention the impact on Fort McKay or the severity of the air quality readings — the chemical release from Syncrude received little public attention.

NorthReport

New poll suggests more voters support UCP but NDP gaining ground 1 week before Alberta election

Ipsos 

NDP gains 9% on UCP but Rachel needs something else to close the gap

What about Alberta Party voters?

Party / Mar 17 / Apr 8 / Difference

UCP / 52% / 47% /  Down 5%

NDP / 35% / 39% / Up 4%

AP / 6% / 10% / Up 4%

LP / 5% / 2% / Down 3%

https://globalnews.ca/news/5144960/ucp-ndp-ipsos-global-poll-alberta-election-2019-post-debate/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_general_election#Opinion_polling

voice of the damned

What about Alberta Party voters?

They would probably be the best hope for the NDP picking up more votes.

But I get the impression that most centrist voters in Alberta now regard Notley's NDP the way I regard certain Xtian friends of mine: yeah, I like 'em, they're bright and engaging people, more interesting to hang out with than some of my atheist buddies, but the constant hectoring about my eternal soul has gotten to the point where it is now a deal-breaker. So I simply do not call them anymore, and that's not gonna change.

In case the metaphor needs fleshing out, for centrist Albertans, it's the carbon-tax and maybe a couple of other energy/economic related items that are the deal-breaker(s). I do think, however, that the best hope(and that's relative) to holding the UCP to a minority would be via the Alberta Party picking up more seats. But they would need to be seats in areas where the UCP is currently the likely hegemon(IOW seats that would have otherwise gone to the UCP go to the AP). If it's just a bunch of NDP seats in Edmonton going over to Mandel's crew, it's a break-even, as far as majority vs. minority goes.

NorthReport

 

Actually the Alberta Party might be like the Greens in that prior to the election they sometimes get a bit of a bounce in the polls but come Election Day voters flee them in droves

 Liberal polling on the other hand is incredibly dismal as it looks like the wheels have completely fallen off its bus

Must be the Trudeau coattails at work

Kenney has keep up the attacks on the Notley-Trudeau alliance so perhaps that perception has damaged the Premier

My hunch is the use of the word liberal by the Liberals deceives even more voters than what green does for the Greens, although here I’m talking generally throughout Canada and not specifically about Alberta

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Am I the only one who thinks it's a bit weird that Kenney is attacking Trudeau, given that Trudeau is largely meeting Kenney's demands?

JKR

Ken Burch wrote:

Am I the only one who thinks it's a bit weird that Kenney is attacking Trudeau, given that Trudeau is largely meeting Kenney's demands?

Given that I think most centre-right voters think the NDP and Liberals are interchangeable, I find it completely unsurprising that Kenney is attacking Trudeau to beat the NDP. I find it surprisingly that people would find it surprising!

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:
Am I the only one who thinks it's a bit weird that Kenney is attacking Trudeau, given that Trudeau is largely meeting Kenney's demands?

Trudeau derangement syndrome. His playbook is to push people's buttons and make them angry, even though he and Notley agree on the pipeline issue, the fact that Kenney helped write the current equalization formula, and that he knows he can't force pipelines on anyone. Plus the fact that the economy still hasn't fully picked up and people are very upset to begin with. Just read some of the online comments on public news sites about the Alberta election to see.

nicky

Quito Maggi has issued this teasing tweet about the Mainstreet Tracker which is released daily to subscribers:

“Woah Nelly! #abpoli Attachment.png followers, we're seeing some very interesting movement

Hold on to your hats, this is going to be one wild finish (follow along here for the final stretch)”

 

Hopefully it will reflect the same tightening of the race shown in recent public polls.

NorthReport

 

ThinkHQ

Maybe this election is a lot closer than we realize

The most recent pollster was Ipsos Reid usually more supportive of the Conservatives than the Liberals, at least federally, so I am assuming they are more supportive of the UCP than the NDP in Alberta. Now Ipsos Reid has shown the gap narrowing from 17% to 8% which is a 9% change in favour of the NDP.

Think HQ has shows the following:

Party / Mar 17 / Apr 6 / Difference

UCP / 49% / 46% / Down 3% 

NDP / 38% / 40% / Up 2%

AP / 8% / 8% / No Change

That's a shift of 5% in favour of the NDP and there was no increase in support for the AP

In this election we keep hearing there are a lot of undecided voters and the gap is shrinking in the NDP's favour.

bekayne

How much does the NDP have to win the % by in order to get more seats?

NorthReport
Misfit Misfit's picture

Here is the problem. Suppose they get 90% of the vote in Edmonton and say 47% in Calgary they will still lose in rural Alberta and lose the election. How much is the vote changing in rural Alberta? And when they did win they came up the middle between the wild rose and pc’s. they don’t have a vote split this time. They need a friggin miracle to pull this off.

Aristotleded24

Misfit wrote:
Here is the problem. Suppose they get 90% of the vote in Edmonton and say 47% in Calgary they will still lose in rural Alberta and lose the election. How much is the vote changing in rural Alberta?

That's why the NDP need to run hard on their committment to build new hospitals and health facilities in Red Deer. That gives them a clear advantage over the other parties, because it is a committment to addressing a disparity in cardiac care that affects that region of the province.

I'll also bet that Shannon Phillips has a good chance of staying on in Lethbridge no matter who wins the election. She came close in 2012, and I suspect that some people who voted PC wanted to support her but were more afraid of the Wildrose at the time.

So, I just named 3 rural Alberta seats in play. What about the others?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Could somebody just leak the damn Mainstreet numbers already? It's silly to keep a secret on that just because a corporation say you have to.  There's no real point in it.

voice of the damned

Ken Burch wrote:

Could somebody just leak the damn Mainstreet numbers already? It's silly to keep a secret on that just because a corporation say you have to.  There's no real point in it.

I kind of agree. but what are the corporations legal options if the poll is leaked on a public message board? It's not like just calling your spouse over to the computer screen to see the numbers on their website. You're openly doing what you promised not to, and leaving a record if it.

nicky

Ken, I subscribe to the Mainstreet tracker. Although I do not feel that I can reveal actual numbers I think I can say this, based on public tweets from Mainstreet principals:

the race is tightening. The regionals and the trends are broadly consistent with the public polls.

sorry I can’t be more explicit.

NorthReport
bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

UCP with 13% lead

http://angusreid.org/alberta-election-april-2019/

Done from a 25% lead

robbie_dee

The results of the 2015 election were:

NDP 41%

WR 24%

PC 28%

LIB 4%

AB 2%

All of the public polls I've seen have the NDP under its 41% result from 2015, sometimes well under and sometimes within a couple of points (~39%). But the consensus also seems to be that even if the NDP vote is "coming home" the UCP is holding most of the combined WR and PC vote. The Alberta party is picking off whatever little spilloff there is from the former WR/PC votes, along with most of the Liberal vote, but nonetheless remains basically irrelevant. I don't see how the NDP can win this unless it starts to win over a chunk of people who didn't vote for them last time and that seems really hard to imagine right now.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Robbie, I agree. I mentioned that earlier that the wild rose and pc party split the right wing vote and the NDP were able to sneak up the middle and win. That no longer exists and the NDP will be relegated to Edmonton risings and a few pick ups in Calgary and elsewhere.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

nicky wrote:

Ken, I subscribe to the Mainstreet tracker. Although I do not feel that I can reveal actual numbers I think I can say this, based on public tweets from Mainstreet principals:

the race is tightening. The regionals and the trends are broadly consistent with the public polls.

sorry I can’t be more explicit.

Fair enough.  Thanks for the response.

NorthReport
Aristotleded24

nicky wrote:
I subscribe to the Mainstreet tracker. Although I do not feel that I can reveal actual numbers I think I can say this, based on public tweets from Mainstreet principals:

the race is tightening. The regionals and the trends are broadly consistent with the public polls.

sorry I can’t be more explicit.

So is Mainstreet ever going to tell us what the numbers are?

NorthReport

 

Tracker is updated - have gained a bit, but things remain stable.

https://twitter.com/JosephAngolano/status/1117454019700465665

NorthReport
quizzical

think it's closer than 8 points. 

NorthReport
GTY

Recent polls show that the percentage of support for the Alberta NDP is close to what it was in 2015.  However the distribution of recent support seems to have shifted around the province.  Complicating the matter is that the PC and Wildrose parties merged into the UCP, but not everyone in the former parties will vote for the UCP.

One of the things the NDP has going into the 2019 election is that they are better organized, have more members and volunteers, especially in ridings that they won in 2015.

There are also a large number of MLA's running for re-election, who have the advantage of incumbency.  How much is anyone's guess.

But another complication that should be mentioned is that many ridings have had their boundaries changed.

So I entered the numbers for the ridings into a spread sheet and came out with these totals:

2015 All ridings in Alberta
40.59% 603459 NDP
27.77% 412958 PC [51.99% PC+Wildrose]
24.22% 360124 Wildrose
 4.18%  62171 Liberal
 2.28%  33867 Alberta
 0.49%   7321 Green
 0.47%   7001 Others
Compare this with a recent poll giving 39.9% for the NDP and 48.6% for the UCP.

2015 All ridings in Edmonton
63.29% 242695 NDP
21.05%  80723 PC [30.32% PC+Wildrose]
 9.27%  35541 Wildrose
 5.14%  19694 Liberal
 0.94%   3603 Alberta
 0.17%    662 Green
 0.14%    540 Others
These numbers include Sherwood Park and St. Albert.
Compare this with a recent poll giving 51.6% for the NDP and 37.8% for the UCP for Edmonton.

 

2015 All ridings in Calgary
34.02% 147162 NDP
31.47% 136134 PC [54.13% PC+Wildrose]
22.66%  98014 Wildrose
 7.21%  31171 Liberal
 3.45%  14913 Alberta
 0.81%   3502 Green
 0.39%   1689 Others
Compare this with a recent poll giving 42.0% for the NDP and 44.0% for the UCP.

2015 Ridings in Calgary won by NDP
36.96% 98246 NDP
30.04% 79890 PC [53.11% PC+Wildrose]
23.07% 61349 Wildrose
 6.90% 18353 Liberal
 1.57%  4180 Alberta
 0.95%  2515 Green
 0.52%  1381 Others

2015 Ridings in Calgary NOT won by NDP
29.35% 48916 NDP
33.75% 56244 PC [55.74% PC+Wildrose]
22.00% 36665 Wildrose
 7.69% 12818 Liberal
 6.44% 10733 Alberta
 0.59%   987 Green
 0.18%   308 Others

2015 Rest of Alberta ridings
31.84% 213602 NDP
29.23% 196101 PC [63.00% PC+Wildrose]
33.77% 226569 Wildrose
 1.69%  11306 Liberal
 2.29%  15351 Alberta
 0.47%   3157 Green
 0.71%   4772 Others
Compare this with a recent poll giving 29.7% for the NDP and 59.9% for the UCP.

2015 Rest of Alberta ridings won by NDP
41.70% 127468 NDP
27.47%  83954 PC [53.14% PC+Wildrose]
25.68%  78486 Wildrose
 2.82%   8614 Liberal
 1.76%   5370 Alberta
 0.44%   1349 Green
 0.14%    292 Others

2015 Rest of Alberta ridings Not won by NDP
23.59%  86134 NDP
30.71% 112147 PC [71.26% PC+Wildrose]
40.55% 148083 Wildrose
 0.74%   2692 Liberal
 2.73%   9981 Alberta
 0.50%   1808 Green
 1.19%   4343 Others

 

NorthReport
Badriya

NorthReport wrote:

U - 45%

N - 39%

A - 8%

https://www.pollara.com/latest-insights/

This is very good news.  Recall that in 2015 the polls failed to capture what was going on in the last couple of days before the election.  The UCP has gone down 2% since the last poll, and over 16% since the writ was dropped.  I am optimistic that the NDP will be elected for a second mandate (and hopefully a third).

NorthReport

Is there a chance like what often happens to the Green Party vote, the Alberta Party support will collapse on voting day?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Is there a chance like what often happens to the Green Party vote, the Alberta Party support will collapse on voting day?

And if so, who would it collapse TO?

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

Wouldn't it be great if the Alberta Party asked their supporters to vote for Notely after the nasty robo-call attacks they experienced?

 

robbie_dee

Looks like Janet Brown called this much closer to the mark than a lot of other pollsters.

Quote:

Jason Kenney's UCP has the support of 53 per cent of voters across the province, compared with 34 per cent for the NDP, according to the data released Wednesday by Janet Brown Opinion Research. The UCP also has a 21-point lead in Calgary, with 53 per cent support versus 32 per cent for the NDP, suggests the poll, which was commissioned by the Global Petroleum Show.

Election night numbers are showing about 55% for the UCP and 32% for the NDP province-wide. Not sure about the regional breakdown yet but with the NDP only holding three seats in Calgary I assume the UCP will be well ahead in the popular vote there.