BC Polls started January, 2018

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NorthReport
BC Polls started January, 2018
NorthReport
JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Good news for the ndp

http://angusreid.org/bc-ndp-one-year/

Voter Intention:
NDP: 41%
BCL: 36%
BCG: 17%
Other: 6%

NorthReport

There appears to be a dearth of polls in B.C.

Is that because John Horgan is so popular the mainstream media don’t want to show how popular he is?

Just askin’’

NorthReport

Oh, my, what has happened to the Liberals, eh!

NDP 38%

Libs 33%

Grns 13%

Cons 12%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_British_Columbia_general_election#Opi...

 

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Oh, my, what has happened to the Liberals, eh!

NDP 38%

Libs 33%

Grns 13%

Cons 12%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_British_Columbia_general_election#Opi...

 

It seems to me that the BC Liberal numbers have been reduced by the increase of the BC Conservative numbers by a dozen points since the last election. The BC Conservatives have done well in opinion polls between elections but by the time an election approaches their numbers have dwindled away as the right solidly backs the BC Liberals to avoid vote-splitting. The BC Conservative only received 0.5% in the last election even though they had gone up to 15% in the polls previously. If we use FPTP in the next election I think this phenomena will repeat. I think the BC Liberals will be back around 40% by the time of the next election which has been enough for them to win phoney FPTP "majority" governments. This is why the BC Liberals and the right are vehemently opposing PR.

bekayne

JKR wrote:
NorthReport wrote:

Oh, my, what has happened to the Liberals, eh!

NDP 38%

Libs 33%

Grns 13%

Cons 12%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_British_Columbia_general_election#Opi...

 

It seems to me that the BC Liberal numbers have been reduced by the increase of the BC Conservative numbers by a dozen points since the last election. The BC Conservatives have done well in opinion polls between elections but by the time an election approaches their numbers have dwindled away as the right solidly backs the BC Liberals to avoid vote-splitting. The BC Conservative only received 0.5% in the last election even though they had gone up to 15% in the polls previously. If we use FPTP in the next election I think this phenomena will repeat. I think the BC Liberals will be back around 40% by the time of the next election which has been enough for them to win phoney FPTP "majority" governments. This is why the BC Liberals and the right are vehemently opposing PR.

Why are pollsters even mentioning the Conservatives? They ran only 10 candidates the last time and haven't had a full time leader in two years.

NorthReport

Exemplified by the two previous posts Liberals seem to singing the blues across this country more and more these days

Being petty and small-minded by depriving citizens of their Parliamentary representation is s sure fire way to incur the wrath of the voters

Keep it up Justin as you are making the opposition look better and better with each passing day

NorthReport

What I want for Christmas is for the NDP to call an election

Let’s Rock and Roll with our very popular NDP Premier John Horgan

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

What I want for Christmas is for the NDP to call an election

Let’s Rock and Roll with our very popular NDP Premier John Horgan

I don't think you'll like what happens when all those "Conservatives" find out that there's no "Conservative Party" to vote for.

NorthReport

Another Liberal wet dream 

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

What I want for Christmas is for the NDP to call an election

Let’s Rock and Roll with our very popular NDP Premier John Horgan

Another FPTP election as a Christmas present for BC voters even if PR wins the referendum! The BC Liberals might be very happy with that turn of events!

I seem to remember that after the last BC election a person here was saying that the Greens were going to support a BC Liberal minority government and that John Horgan should resign in shame as leader of the NDP for pathetically losing the election!

jerrym

bekayne wrote:

JKR wrote:
NorthReport wrote:

Oh, my, what has happened to the Liberals, eh!

NDP 38%

Libs 33%

Grns 13%

Cons 12%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_British_Columbia_general_election#Opi...

 

It seems to me that the BC Liberal numbers have been reduced by the increase of the BC Conservative numbers by a dozen points since the last election. The BC Conservatives have done well in opinion polls between elections but by the time an election approaches their numbers have dwindled away as the right solidly backs the BC Liberals to avoid vote-splitting. The BC Conservative only received 0.5% in the last election even though they had gone up to 15% in the polls previously. If we use FPTP in the next election I think this phenomena will repeat. I think the BC Liberals will be back around 40% by the time of the next election which has been enough for them to win phoney FPTP "majority" governments. This is why the BC Liberals and the right are vehemently opposing PR.

Why are pollsters even mentioning the Conservatives? They ran only 10 candidates the last time and haven't had a full time leader in two years.

The BC Liberals are a coalition of  federal Liberals and federal Conservatives created after the collapse of the Socreds in the 1991 election. There are actually more federal Conservatives in the BC Liberals than federal Liberals.

The BC Liberals were a centrist party under Gordon Wilson when they came back to legislative life in the 1991 election. However, Gordon Campbell and Conservatives soon came to dominate the party with the help of big business.  

To attain power in a FPTP system they needed to unite. In a PR system they could split and actually slightly increase their vote and total combined seats from those ultra Conservatives who refuse to do even minor accomodations for the Liberals and vote for the Conservatives or stay home at election time. There won't be many but there are some. They can work together as a coalition or cooperate informally to form a government if their combined vote in some future election permits, which is what they have done in one form or another since 1941 initially as a Liberal-Conservative coalition, then the Socreds, and finally the BC Liberals.

In other words, in a PR system the severe penalities of being separate parties disappear, making the glue holding them together much weaker. 

 

NorthReport
NorthReport

BC NDP jumps 5% (4.7%) in latest BC Poll

 

bekayne
NorthReport

Quite an amazin’jump in support for the BC NDP led by Premier John Horgan one of Canada’s most popular Premiers. 

If David Eby does proceed with a money-laundering inquiry that NDP jump in support might possible double that 5% (4.7%) increase in support for the BC NDP

NorthReport

Sweet!

BC NDP Widen Their Lead Over BC Liberals

NDP - 39%, Up 2%

Libs - 32.4%, Down 2.5%

Grns - 13.3%, Down 1.3%

Cons 12.1%, Down 0.9%

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-ndp-widen-their-lead-over-bc-liberals/

NorthReport

BC Leadership looks like a disaster for the Wilkinson-led Liberals

Horgan  +6.3% rating

Anderson -2.6% rating

Weaver -5.9% rating

Wilkinson -10.1% rating

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-ndp-widen-their-lead-over-bc-liberals/

 

 

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Sweet!

BC NDP Widen Their Lead Over BC Liberals

NDP - 39%, Up 2%

Libs - 32.4%, Down 2.5%

Grns - 13.3%, Down 1.3%

Cons 12.1%, Down 0.9%

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-ndp-widen-their-lead-over-bc-liberals/

During the last few BC elections the BC Conservative vote has collapsed and gone to the BC Liberals.

NorthReport

And next election if the Liberals keep their current leader the opposite could take place. 

Anyway you want to slice it, today's poll is devastating news for Liberals in BC. 

John Horgan, is one of, if not the most popular Premiers in Canada now.

JKR

I think the current BC NDP government has been a godsend! It scary to think how close the BC Liberals came to winning a phoney FPTP majority.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

And next election if the Liberals keep their current leader the opposite could take place. 

That's what you said would happen in the Nanaimo byelection

NorthReport

It appears Liberals feel very threatened by popular NDP governments, eh!

NorthReport

And remmeber when all the Liberals right after the BC Lieutenant Governor told Christy Clark to take a flying leap, were forcasting that John Horgan wouldn't last a year as Premier. The last BC election was May 9, 2017, so the NDP government has been in power for 22 months now, and the NDP keeps growing in popularity.

The NDP now look like they will probably complete their 4 year term in office.

How could that happen? 

How can it be! 

jerrym

NorthReport wrote:

The last BC election was May 9, 2019, so the NDP government has been in power for 22 months now, and the NDP keeps growing in popularity.

You meant 2017, not 2019. 

NorthReport

Thanks

Aristotleded24

Even more impressive is that the gap in the Interior is starting to move the NDP's direction, according to the Mainstreet polls.

NorthReport

And that is the their key to forming a majority government next time 

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Even more impressive is that the gap in the Interior is starting to move the NDP's direction, according to the Mainstreet polls.

jerrym

In the modern media driven campaigns, a great deal depends on the leaders popularity. While things can change greatly over time, the fact that Horgan is the only party leader with a positive favourability works in favour of the NDP. No doubt BC Leader Andrew Wilkinson's comments that renting is a “fun” and “a rite of passage” during “kind of a wacky time of life” shows how out of touch he is with the overwhelming majority of voters who themselves, their children, grandchildren or friends struggle to pay the sky-high rents in much of the province, helping him earn the worst popularity ranking. 

The poll also found that Horgan remains the only leader that has a positive favourability rating among all the party leaders, in line with Mainstreet’s January poll. However, his net rating has improved while the favourability ratings of Weaver and Wilkinson have dropped.

Horgan has a +6.3% favourability rating, while (BC Liberal leader Andrew) Wilkinson has a -10.1% rating. (Green leader Andrew) Weaver has a rating of -5.9%, while (BC Conservative interim leader Scott) Anderson has a rating of -2.6%.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-ndp-widen-their-lead-over-bc-liberals/

 

NorthReport

BC NDP Premier John Horgan in the top 3 most popular premiers, but not a Liberal in sight

Trio enjoys majority approval

 

For the second consecutive quarter, Quebec Premier François Legault is Canada’s most popular provincial head of government. In the month that his government introduced its first budget – showing the province’s fifth consecutive surplus – the Coalition Avenir Quebec leader enjoys the approval of six-in-ten Quebecers (60%), a number that is statistically unchanged from where it was in December.

The high degree of approval for Legault suggests that the premier’s political honeymoon is still very much ongoing, despite facing criticism for his recent assertion that there is no Islamophobia in Quebec and for doing too little to address climate change.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe enjoys essentially the same level of personal approval, at 59 per cent. Moe’s popularity with Saskatchewan residents has risen seven points since he succeeded former premier Brad Wall early last year.

British Columbia Premier John Horgan also receives the approval of more than half of his province this quarter, earning the backing of 52 per cent of BC residents. This represents an increase of 9 percentage points since December, when four-in-ten (43%) approved of his performance. The current number ties Horgan’s highest mark as premier, which was set in March 2018.

Horgan’s resurgent popularity comes as opposition leader Andrew Wilkinson has struggled to connect with British Columbians. He’s been accused of being “out of touch” over – among other things – comments he made about renting, a touchy subject in and around Metro Vancouver because of ongoing affordability issues.

 

http://angusreid.org/premier-approval-march2019/

NorthReport

Could the BC Liberals be displaced in second place by the BC Greens who are now only 9% behind the Liberals!

NDP 39% 9% Lead

Libs 30%

Grns 21%

Cons 9%

NDP Ahead in British Columbia Two Years After Last Election

https://researchco.ca/2019/05/29/with-the-furies-breathing-down-your-neck/

NorthReport

Leadership Approval ratings for the above Research poll

Horgan - 51%

Weaver - 42%

Wilkinson - 34%

Bolton - 20%

Aristotleded24

NorthReport wrote:
Could the BC Liberals be displaced in second place by the BC Greens who are now only 9% behind the Liberals!

NDP 39% 9% Lead

Libs 30%

Grns 21%

Cons 9%

NDP Ahead in British Columbia Two Years After Last Election

https://researchco.ca/2019/05/29/with-the-furies-breathing-down-your-neck/

I don't understand these numbers. The Greens are up,  and you would think that the NDP mis-steps on Site C and LNG would play a crucial role. But if that's the case, why are the NDP numbers still as high as they are? As for the Liberals falling in their support? Shouldn't the Conservatives be doing better?

Any West Coasters have any more insights into these numbers?

NorthReport

Elections are usually about jobs, jobs, and more jobs, and the BC NDP are blowing everybody's minds with the buoyant economy, as well BCers are pissed about the money-laundering and the impact it has had on our housing market, apart from the fact that the Liberal leader is a dud. 

BC’s Jobs Economy Is Red Hot and Getting Hotter

The best in Canada by far.

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/05/27/BC-Jobs-Economy-Red-Hot/

NorthReport

 

Party / Election 17 / May 19 /

Libs  / 40% / 30% / 

NDP / 40% / 39%

Grn  / 17% / 21%

Cons / ? / 9%

New poll shows flagging fortunes for B.C. Liberals, sustained support for NDP and Greens

Housing, poverty and homelessness identified by B.C. voters as overwhelmingly most important issue

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-poll-liberals-flagging-1.5155606

 

JKR

Aristotleded24 wrote:

I don't understand these numbers. The Greens are up,  and you would think that the NDP mis-steps on Site C and LNG would play a crucial role. But if that's the case, why are the NDP numbers still as high as they are? As for the Liberals falling in their support? Shouldn't the Conservatives be doing better?

Any West Coasters have any more insights into these numbers?

The former BC Liberal Government’s money laundering scandal is hurting the BC Liberals and helping the BC NDP, BC Greens, and BC Conservatives. The scandal is also part of the housing affordability crisis here in BC, especially in the Lower Mainland. The BC Liberal’s leader, Andrew Wilkinson, has also been a dud as a leader. He’s coming off as an upperclass aristocrat who’s blind to what’s happening to 99% of the population, which he probably is. There’s even talk he might step down before the next election.

jerrym

Aristotleded24 wrote:

NorthReport wrote:
Could the BC Liberals be displaced in second place by the BC Greens who are now only 9% behind the Liberals!

NDP 39% 9% Lead

Libs 30%

Grns 21%

Cons 9%

NDP Ahead in British Columbia Two Years After Last Election

https://researchco.ca/2019/05/29/with-the-furies-breathing-down-your-neck/

I don't understand these numbers. The Greens are up,  and you would think that the NDP mis-steps on Site C and LNG would play a crucial role. But if that's the case, why are the NDP numbers still as high as they are? As for the Liberals falling in their support? Shouldn't the Conservatives be doing better? Any West Coasters have any more insights into these numbers?

 

ETA: The BC Liberal leader in February called "renting 'fun' and 'wacky' "(https://bc.ctvnews.ca/fun-and-wacky-ndp-calls-liberal-leader-s-rental-co...) and a stage you go through when growing up. This comment was made in a market where the city of Vancouver "annual rental guidelines for what it calls 'for profit affordable housing' (remember these are 'affordable' rents that earn developers discounts because they are below the market average) are:

For 2019 on the West Side, that means $1,768 per month for a studio and $2,056 for a one-bedroom is considered affordable rent. In East Vancouver, those numbers are $1,607 for a studio and $1,869 for a one-bedroom. (https://bc.ctvnews.ca/2-056-for-a-one-bedroom-deemed-affordable-rent-und...

How do you think voters react to let them eat real estate Liberal plutocratic comments like that?

Vancouver has the second highest second highest real estate prices to income ratio in the world, according to a January 2019 report.

Vancouver housing is the second least-affordable in the world after Hong Kong, according to the 15th annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey.

This year Vancouver bumped Sydney to be in the No. 2 spot after three years at No. 3. ...

The survey rates middle-income housing affordability using a measure called the median multiple. It captures the median house price divided by the median household income in a given market. A median multiple of 5.1, which means a home costs more than five times the average annual household income, is considered “severely unaffordable.”

Vancouver’s median multiple of 12.6 is the second worst (Hong Kong’s median is 20.9) among the 91 cities ranked. Vancouver’s median is the same as last year after Sydney’s affordability improved slightly (11.7 from 12.9.) (https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouver-housing-second-least-...)

This follows 16 years of BC Liberal rule where money laundering and foreign speculation was allowed to run rampant with real estate developers and construction firms being the biggest contributors to the party: "Eight of the 10 top donors to the B.C. Liberal party in 2016, and so far in 2017, are involved in the province’s property development and construction industries." (https://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/property-developers-top...) The BC Liberals were aided in this by federal Conservative and Liberal governments allowing Canada "to become a well-known target, even a magnet, for money laundering, and no wonder. According to a report out today from the C.D. Howe Institute, a Canadian think-tank, 99.9 per cent of those money launderers are just never caught." (https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/money-laundering-canada-1.5125078)

The average house price is $1.2 million which is down 12.5% from last year in large part because the NDP has put in measures to stop money laundering through real estate and foreign speculation from pushing prices ever higher. This drop in real estate prices is occurring even though the BC economy is predicted "grow at a faster rate than the country as a whole over the next three years" (https://www.straight.com/life/1176556/bcs-economic-growth-outperform-can...) and the unemployment rate in April was 4.6%. (https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190510/t003a-eng.htm)

 Even many people owning million dollar homes are deeply concerned because they see little opportunity for their children to own their own place in Metro Vancoouver. The high housing prices are fueling a large exodus of young people from the city. 

Andy Yan, director of the City Program at Simon Fraser University, said Vancouver is mostly able to attract people early in their careers, whether they come for education or a job, but it has a problem retaining talent. Even if they earn a relatively high wage, he said they can’t afford anything except condominiums.

“In a world like that, the labour pool has options,” he said, noting that other provinces offer much more housing for their salaries.

Finance Minister Carole James said in an interview “there’s no question that Vancouver is facing a brain drain. Crisis is not too strong a word to describe the challenges we are facing, not just in Vancouver, but other urban settings around our province,” she said.

https://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/young-professionals-leavi...