BC polls, thread #2

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jerrym

theleftyinvestor wrote:

Frankly I'd like to see an opposition larger than 6 seats. I think an NDP majority will be kept honest more easily (face it, power corrupts) if there is more than one official party status.

I agree. All parties with large majorities tend to get careless and arrogant to some extent, including Barrett's 1970s one. Better to have a smaller, but comfortable majority. There is a good chance the lead will shrink somewhat as the mainstream media start attacking the NDP more, but it is hard to see it collapsing or even getting really close unless some dramatic event occurs that recrystallizes the political dynamics in another direction. I also agree that a good portion of the Green vote is likely to come the NDP way, but not in a panic - more in response to the lack of charisma in their leader - Jane Sterk - and the lack of strong Green riding organizations in most constituencies. I only think the Green voters would move in very large numbers towards the NDP if they thought the election would go to the Cons or Libs if they did not. With anything somewhat close to current polling numbers on the eve of the election, this would seem unlikely.

Vansterdam Kid

The size of the majority isn't really within the NDP's control, and I don't see any need to take our feet off of the Liberals necks. This is the problem with the left, lack of confidence and an annoying tendancy to bring knives to gun fights.

NorthReport

Agreed.

I was making a bit of a joke when I said I was concerned about the 6 seats that might not go NDP in the next election, but nothing would make me happier than to see the NDP win 85 out of the 85 seats.

The right wing will be fighting the NDP tooth and nail right up until the polls close. And the next day the right will begin all over again.

Winning all but 2 seats really damaged the BC Liberals didn't it. Tongue out

theleftyinvestor

jerrym wrote:
I also agree that a good portion of the Green vote is likely to come the NDP way, but not in a panic - more in response to the lack of charisma in their leader - Jane Sterk - and the lack of strong Green riding organizations in most constituencies.

I agree. I saw Jane Sterk when she ran in the Van-Fairview by-election, and I just got a strong sense of mediocrity.

Also speaking of organizing - any current member is probably aware of the BCNDP's constant flood of e-mails and media opportunities regarding Northern Gateway. They clearly want to present themselves as the viable organizers for environmentally-minded voters. They may well pre-empt the Greens' chances of ever carrying that torch.

Vansterdam Kid

NorthReport wrote:

Winning all but 2 seats really damaged the BC Liberals didn't it. Tongue out

Well...

But seriously though, the Liberals have moved the political spectrum to the right. So having that huge majority sure hasn't damaged their political agenda, and I'm not so sure even a large NDP majority will have the tenacity to counter that move. A small one certainly won't.

Stockholm

The bigger the NDP win and the more thoroughly destroyed the Liberals are - the less likely it is that the BC Liberals can make a quick comeback after one NDP term.

love is free love is free's picture

awesome interview with adrian dix, what a cool, thoughtful guy.  last 3 minutes will become the mantra for our generation: http://www.vancouversun.com/videos/recommended/video.html?embedCode=VlNH...

capped with "people say that we in the ndp don't tend to run on the economy, in the next election, we're going to run on the economy." 

Jacob Two-Two

Yes! Finally! We could have won the last election and saved everyone in BC a lot of trouble if the party had stood up and offered a strong challenge to the Liberal's pretentions of economic competency. It seems that NDP culture in general is becoming less timid. It's about time.

theleftyinvestor

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

Yes! Finally! We could have won the last election and saved everyone in BC a lot of trouble if the party had stood up and offered a strong challenge to the Liberal's pretentions of economic competency. It seems that NDP culture in general is becoming less timid. It's about time.

A friend was trying to express to me why he was so frustrated with the last BCNDP campaign, and when I brought up the word "populist" he said yes, that's the one. I think Carole James and her campaign really represented a wing of the party that tended to ride waves of public opinion without it really being fundamentally sound policy (opposition to carbon tax and HST namely). Sure, the anti-NG movement is populist in its own right, but it's also in line with the party base and it's been spelled out as a very principled stand.

jerrym

Stockholm wrote:

The bigger the NDP win and the more thoroughly destroyed the Liberals are - the less likely it is that the BC Liberals can make a quick comeback after one NDP term.

If the BC Liberals go down to a resounding defeat, I think that the BC Cons will become the dominant right-wing party, even if they win a few less seats than the Liberals. The momentum will be in the Cons direction, since they are starting from nothing; they will have the backing of federal Cons; there are already more ideological and federal conservatives in the Liberal party than liberals; and Clark, a federal Liberal, will be toast, while Kevin Falcon, BC Finance Minister who lost to Clark by only a couple of percentage points, and who is a conservative, will likely seize the chance to take over the leadership of the BC Cons from the less charismatic John Cummins.

jerrym

The other alternative to the BC Conservative party becoming dominant is a merger with the BC Liberals with the Conservatives in the dominant role and with the Cons controlling nearly all key positions and the party platform. This will likely be pushed forward as the solution to beating the NDP in the following election. However, the current Conservative party will insist on ditching the few centre-right planks of the Liberal party as this is the reason they left the Liberal coalition and they have the numbers between themselves and the conservatives still in the Liberal party to easily dominate the party. The only question is whether the liberals would all accept this or some would insist on having a rump BC Liberal party.

jerrym

The other alternative to the BC Conservative party becoming dominant is a merger with the BC Liberals with the Conservatives in the dominant role and with the Cons controlling nearly all key positions and the party platform. This will likely be pushed forward as the solution to beating the NDP in the following election. However, the current Conservative party will insist on ditching the few centre-right planks of the Liberal party as this is the reason they left the Liberal coalition and they have the numbers between themselves and the conservatives still in the Liberal party to easily dominate the party. The only question is whether the liberals would all accept this or some would insist on having a rump BC Liberal party.

jerrym

The other alternative to the BC Conservative party becoming dominant is a merger with the BC Liberals with the Conservatives in the dominant role and with the Cons controlling nearly all key positions and the party platform. This will likely be pushed forward as the solution to beating the NDP in the following election. However, the current Conservative party will insist on ditching the few centre-right planks of the Liberal party as this is the reason they left the Liberal coalition and they have the numbers between themselves and the conservatives still in the Liberal party to easily dominate the party. The only question is whether the liberals would all accept this or some would insist on having a rump BC Liberal party.

jerrym

Sorry about the triple post. I am having trouble with my computer.

NorthReport

Recent BC polling

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40th_British_Columbia_general_election

 

It seems no matter what Christy Clark does now, it is going to come across as negative in the press as in Mike Smith's column in today's Province, and yesterday's press about her disappearing act in relation to Alberta and the oil pipeline project. Ya almost think the right-wing press want to dump her as BC Liberal leader before the next election. 

NorthReport

Sure enough, tonite the BC Liberals/Christy Clark are being hammered again in the media, this time by the BC Cons, about the BC Liberals' close to $6 million ($5.9 million actually) in severance packages that have been doled out since Christy became Premier. And Cummins didn't hesitiate to remind us that Christy complained about that when Campbell was Premier saying she was going to change things in that area, when she obviously has not. 

At this rate the BC Conservatives/Cummins will get more votes than the Liberals.

theleftyinvestor

jerrym wrote:

If the BC Liberals go down to a resounding defeat, I think that the BC Cons will become the dominant right-wing party, even if they win a few less seats than the Liberals. The momentum will be in the Cons direction, since they are starting from nothing; they will have the backing of federal Cons; there are already more ideological and federal conservatives in the Liberal party than liberals; and Clark, a federal Liberal, will be toast, while Kevin Falcon, BC Finance Minister who lost to Clark by only a couple of percentage points, and who is a conservative, will likely seize the chance to take over the leadership of the BC Cons from the less charismatic John Cummins.

Or Kevin Falcon steps out of the picture to run as a federal Conservative in the 2015 election, let's say in a new Conservative-friendly Surrey seat. After all, if the political stars need to re-align before the new anti-NDP is ready to roll, we could well be seeing a two-term NDP government. Falcon could build up some political capital either in government or opposition, away from the poisoned chalice of BC politics, and if at age 57 he still wants to make a go for it, come back to whichever party may be ready to rumble next time. 

jerrym wrote:

The other alternative to the BC Conservative party becoming dominant is a merger with the BC Liberals with the Conservatives in the dominant role and with the Cons controlling nearly all key positions and the party platform. This will likely be pushed forward as the solution to beating the NDP in the following election. However, the current Conservative party will insist on ditching the few centre-right planks of the Liberal party as this is the reason they left the Liberal coalition and they have the numbers between themselves and the conservatives still in the Liberal party to easily dominate the party. The only question is whether the liberals would all accept this or some would insist on having a rump BC Liberal party.

I say rump party. There has always been a Liberal rump of some magnitude in BC. They won 1-6 seats in every election from 1952-1975 when the grand coalition was Social Credit. In the next four elections they won no seats but got 7, 0.5, 3, 7% of the vote. It presumably consisted of whoever felt squeezed out by the polarized left-right dynamic of SC vs NDP. In 1979 (the 0.5 year) the NDP got an incredible 46% of the vote but was bested by the SC 48% - it seems like the NDP vote swelled beyond their core in opposition to Bennett (picking up some of that rump temporarily?).

Mind you, what I've been saying all along is: Should the BC Libs find themselves in rump territory, everyone in the party who is conservative enough to flee will flee. At that point, who is remaining? By process of attrition they will end up somewhere in the same space as the federal Liberals (both in number and policy). Free from the chains of always being the obligatory anti-NDP, they might actually be able to contribute something meaningful to BC politics.

PoliSciStudent

While its great to see the NDP doing so well, and possibly winning a majority of the vote, I think the possibility of the opposition being all but wiped out is troubling. A large caucus can be hard to control and no matter which party is in power not having an effective opposition usually leads to bad governance.

theleftyinvestor

Maybe the BC Greens should pick one riding with a particularly dazzling candidate and try and win that one seat. They'd be a good voice to try and keep the NDP honest, and it would also force them to actually think about having a viable platform.

NorthReport

A 6% shift which is a cause for concern 

British Columbia - 2012

Date / Pollster / NDP / N - Change / Libs / L- Change / Cons / C - Change / Green

Sep 12 / Angus Reid / 46% / Down 3% /  25% / Up 3 % / 19% / Flatlined /  8%

Aug 3 / Angus-Reid / 49% / ----- / 22% / ----- / 19% / ----- / 9%

jerrym

While 6% shift in the poll creates some concern, another finding suggests that any shift that is occurring is unlikely to be major. Namely, the poll found:

"Once again, Dix is the only party leader capable of posting a positive momentum score (+1), while Sterk (-3), Cummins (-12) and Clark (-42) all have a negative rating. Clark remains a contentious figure among British Columbians, with half (49%) saying their opinion of her has worsened in the past three months." 

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/46651/liberals-improve-new-democrats-sti...

Since electoral results in the modern media-oriented environment are closely tied to leadership popularity,the -49% momentum shift in the public's opinion of Clark compared to Dix's +1 momentum shift during the same period suggests that the 6% shift in popularity of the parties is not likely to continue in the same direction, unless Clark dramatically reverses momentum.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

There are undoubtedly some Lib/NDP swing voters who will vote Liberal in May 2013 if they think it will help to block the Conservatives from becoming the dominant opposition to the NDP. Voters who are more likely to vote Liberal the higher the Conservatives poll. Perhaps some or all of the shift in support from the NDP to Liberals is reflective of these voters?

Stockholm

I doubt that anyone thinking of voting NDP in BC gives a damn whether the puny official opposition post-May '13 is BC Liberal or BC Conservative. Why should anyone care? After the opposition gets reduced to a combined half a dozen seats does it really matter - they will inevitably form some sort of new "Social Credit" like party regardless...in any case, I for one would like to see John Cummins emerge as leader of the opposition - that way the opposition to Adrian Dix is guaranteed to be as ineffective and unpopular as possible!

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The BC Liberals are the Howe Street party.  After the next election the Howe Street cabal that rules this province will pick the horse they are backing and the other right of centre parties funds will dry up.  I expect that unless the Liberals get an unexpected bounce before May then Howe Street will go for a re-branding since it worked so well going from the Socreds to the Liberals.  Also when Dix and his cabinet get to see the P3 contracts the shit will start to hit the fan and the BC Liberal name will become an even greater liability.

jerrym

A new Ipsos reid poll was released September 20th showing that the Angus Reid September 12 poll drop of 3% in NDP support was likely a margin of statistical error drop as this poll shows the NDP back at 49%. However, the Liberals are up to 32%, a statistically significant increase over the Angus Reid poll of 25%, coming at the expense of the embattled BC Conservatives, who have also had a statistically significant drop to 12% from 19% (the Con drop = the Lib increase). The Con dogfight over whether John Cummins should continue as leader is clearly starting to cost them support. The battle comes to a head tomorrow with the release of the vote on whether there should be a leadership convention. The Greens have fallen 2% to 6% (within the margin of error).

 

 http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Conservatives+face+weekend+reckoning/72...

"In the past two weeks, the party has staged a bitter and public battle over the fate of its leader, has lost a quarter of its support in the polls, and on Friday lost a candidate to the rival provincial Liberals. All that has some questioning the future of a party that Liberal Premier Christy Clark has routinely blamed for splitting the province’s right-of-centre vote and creating an opening for the NDP.

'The standing of the B.C. Conservatives at the moment is purely a creature of public opinion; it’s what we see in the polls as the public opinion turns against the Liberals and looks for a home,' said Norman Ruff, veteran political observer and professor emeritus at the University of Victoria. The question (is) whether the B.C. Conservatives can provide a real institutional home for that discontent, and stable leadership for that discontent. They have yet to show that they are a real institutional home on stable leadership.'

For many, stable leadership alone will decide how quickly the party is able to reverse its slide.

'We have to show that we’re a credible force and we have to do that first of all by showing that we know how to conduct and govern ourselves,' said Al Siebring, a pro-Cummins board member who is running for party president.

In an email to members on Thursday, the party’s former campaign director put a finer point on what’s at stake.

'I want to be perfectly clear that a vote for a leadership review … is a vote for Christy Clark and (the NDP’s) Adrian Dix,' Hamish Marshall told constituency association presidents Thursday, in an email obtained by The Vancouver Sun. 'Without a leader, we cannot win seats in the next election — and that means that the old line parties, the corrupted and out-of-touch Liberals and socialist NDP will win by default and all of British Columbia will be worse off.' Marshall added that allowing the dissidents to take control of key positions on the party’s board — as a group of seven agitators is seeking to do through the formation of an anti-Cummins slate — would be equally damaging. 'A vote for (anti-Cummins candidate) Ben Besler for president means turning back the clock, driving good people out of the party, scaring off donors and candidates, and a guarantee that we will not win any seats in May,' Marshall wrote."

 

 

theleftyinvestor

On one hand, you would think that with the sum of Con+Lib still below the NDP, there's never any way they're going to catch up.

But on the other hand, the anti-NDP voters may be disproportionately undecided right now. These are %s of decided voters. The assumption that undecideds will support the same proportion as undecideds may be a bad one in these polls... so take nothing for granted and keep organizing right?

jerrym

The challenge to Cummins' leadership may end up discrediting the BC Conservatives as an alternative to the BC Liberals, either as a consequence of his performance and/or because those who want a single free enterprise party to face the NDP have decided to cause turmoil in the Cons to make the Libs look better. With less than 8 months to go before the provincial election, the overthrow of Cummins and subsequent turmoil of a leadership race would much more likely leave the party in a shambles before the election with virtually no time to heal its wounds than result in a new popular leader being picked. The last poll shows how much damage two weeks of such turmoil has already cost the Cons. If the Cons fail to bounce back, the likelihood of an overwhelming NDP victory decreases greatly (although it still looks like they will win a healthy majority) and the free enterprise elite have their obvious choice to pour their money into for the next election. Stockwell Day has said that he is doing all he can to have a single free enterprise party facing the NDP and has supported the BC Liberals as an alliance of federal Conservatives and Liberals. 

jerrym

duplicate

NorthReport

 

British Columbia - Seats

Date / NDP / N-Change / Libs / L-Change / Inds / I - Change

Nov '12 / 36 seats / +1 seat / 46 seats / -3 seats / 3 seats / +3 seats

2009 / 35 seats / +2 seats / 49 seats / + 3 seats

2005 / 33 seats / -- / Libs / 46 seats / --

 

British Columbia - Popular Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP / N - Change / Libs / L- Change / Cons / C - Change / Green

May '09 / GE / 42% / -- / 46% / --

2012

Nov '12 / Angus Reid / 47% / -2% / 29% / +3% / 12% / -4%

Sep 12 / Angus Reid / 46% / Down 3% /  25% / Up 3 % / 19% / Flatlined /  8%

Aug 3 / Angus-Reid / 49% / ----- / 22% / ----- / 19% / ----- / 9%

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/11/23/bc-angus...

2773

jerrym

The Angus Reid poll also found that 48% of BCers "approve of the way Official Opposition and NDP leader Adrian Dix is handling his duties." On the other hand, Christy Clark at 29%, even with her megawatt smile and quick mouth, ranks only slightly ahead of the anti-charismatic fourth party Green leader, Jane Sterk, who is at 25%. John Cummins, the Conservative party leader, who along with his party is the process of committing political hari-kari through infighting, comes last with 15%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/47801/governing-liberals-gain-new-democr...

 

The slight increase in Liberal support is almost certainly coming from BC Conservatives disillusioned with how their party is self-distructing after earlier pulling into a statistical tie with the Liberals.

theleftyinvestor

Those Green numbers are higher than typical election results... I have a feeling that if more of the Con vote creeps back to the Libs, some of those left-green points will go to the NDP. The right-green protest voters will not, however, hand their votes back to Libs.

jerrym

theleftyinvestor wrote:

Those Green numbers are higher than typical election results... I have a feeling that if more of the Con vote creeps back to the Libs, some of those left-green points will go to the NDP. The right-green protest voters will not, however, hand their votes back to Libs.

 

 

bc_nov2012

These are the poll results of the Angus Reid poll

(http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/47801/governing-liberals-gain-new-democr...)

The Greens had 8.10% (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_2009) of the popular vote in the 2009 provincial election, which is not statistically different from the above poll. The Greens have not significantly changed in their popularity provincially according to this poll, nor in the August and September polls by Angus Reid compared to the 2009 election.

Sep 12 / Angus Reid / 46%NDP / Down 3% /  25%Lib / Up 3 % / 19%Con / Flatlined /  8%Green

Aug 3 / Angus-Reid / 49%NDP / ----- / 22% Lib/ ----- / 19%Con / -  ---- / 9%Green

 

 

NorthReport

British Columbia

British Columbia polling firm's ratings, based on the order of accuracy*, for their 3 most recent polls, if available, leading up to the May, 2009 provincial election:

Angus Reid  = -6

Ipsos Reid = -6

Environics = -7

Mustel = -10


The 3 most recent poll results, if available, leading up to the last BC election held in May, 2009:

Popular Vote

Pollster / NDP / Lib

GE / 42% / 46%

Ipsos Reid / 39% / 47%

Ipsos Reid / 35% / 46% 

Average / 37% / 47%

Difference / -5% / -1% = -6%

Angus Reid / 42% / 44%

Angus Reid / 39% / 42%

Angus Reid / 37% / 43%

Average / 39% / 43% 

Difference / -3% / -3% = -6%

Mustel / 38% / 47%

Mustel / 35% / 52%

Mustel / 36% / 52%

Average / 36% / 50%

Difference / -6% / -4% = -10%

Environics / 36% / 47%

Difference / -6% / -1% = -7%

*Using the averages of their last 3 polls, if available, helps to avoid "herding" which means bringing their results more in line with other pollsters close to the actual election date

------------------

Canada

Canadian polling firm's ratings, based on the order of accuracy*, for their 3 most recent polls, if available, leading up to the May 2, 2011 federal election:

EKOS = -6

Forum Research = -7

Nanos Research = -7

Angus Reid = -9

Ipsos Reid = -9

Harris Decima = -13

Leger Marketing = -15

Environics = -16

Abacus = -18

Compas = -18

Innovative Research Group = -22

 

 

The 3 most recent poll results, if available, leading up to the last federal election held May 2, 2011

Popular Vote

Pollster / NDP / Cons / Libs

GE / 31 / 40 / 19

Forum / 33 / 36 / 19

Forum / 33 / 35 /19

Forum / 31 / 34 / 22

Average / 32 / 35 / 20

Difference / -1 / -5 / -1 = -7

EKOS / 31 / 34 / 21

EKOS 31 / 35 / 20

EKOS / 30 / 35 / 20

Average / 31 / 35 / 20

Difference / 0 / -5 / -1 = -6

Nanos / 32 / 37 / 21

Nanos / 31 / 37 / 23

Nanos / 31 / 36 / 22

Average / 31 / 37 / 22 

Difference / 0 / -3 / -3 = -7

Har Dec / 30 / 36 / 19

Har Dec / 30 / 35 / 22

Har Dec / 19 /36 / 28

Average / 26 / 36 / 23

Difference / -5 / -4 / -4 = -13

Abacus / 32 / 37 / 18

Abacus / 20 / 37 / 29

Abacus / 20 / 36 / 27

Average / 24 / 37 / 27

Difference / -7 / -3 / -8 = -18 

Compas / 26 / 46 / 17

Compas / 16 / 45 / 24

Average / 21 / 46 / 21

Difference / -10 / -6 / -2 = -18

Angus Reid / 33 / 37 / 19

Angus Reid / 30 / 35 / 22

Angus Reid / 25 / 36 / 25

Average / 29 / 36 / 22

Differece / -2 / -4 / -3 = -9

Leger / 31 / 36 / 21

Leger / 22 / 38 / 26

Leger / 18 / 37 / 26

Average / 24 / 37 / 24

Difference / -7 / -3 / -5 = - 15

Ipsos Reid / 33 / 38 / 18

Ipsos Reid / 24 / 43 / 21

Ipsos Reid / 19 / 41 / 26

Average / 25 / 41 / 22

Difference / -6 / 0 / -3 = -9

Inn Res Gp / 24 / 38 / 25

Inn Res Gp / 17 / 39 / 28

Inn Res Gp / 17 / 39 / 28

Average / 19 / 39 / 27

Difference /  -12 / -2 / -8 = -22

Envir / 25 / 39 / 22

Envir / 22 / 39 / 24

Envir / 20 / 38 / 25

Average / 22 / 39 / 24

Difference / -9 / -2 / -5 = -16

*Using the averages of their last 3 polls, if available, helps to avoid "herding" which means bringing their results more in line with other pollsters close to the actual election date

 

NorthReport

The next British Columbia provincial election is tentatively scheduled for May 14, 2013

Here is some of the pollster's most recent polling with their averages:

Date / Pollster / NDP / Libs

Nov '12 / Angus Reid / 47% / 29%

Oct '12 / Angus Reid / 49% / 26%

Sep '12 / Angus Reid / 46% / 25%

Average / Angus Reid / 47% / 27% / Difference = 20% 

Aug '12 / Environics / 47% / 29%

Average / Environics / 47% / 29% / Difference = 18%

Aug '12 / Forum / 45% / 23%

Jun '12 / Forum / 50% / 20%

May '12 / Forum / 48% / 23%

Average / Forum / 48% / 22% / Difference = 26% 

Sep '12 / Ipsos Reid / 49% / 32%

Jun '12 / Ipsos Reid / 48% / 29%

Feb '12 / Ipsos Reid / 44% / 32%

Average / Ipsos Reid / 47% / 31% / Difference = 16%

Sep '12 / Mustel / 45% / 32%

Mar '12 / Mustel / 42% / 34%

Nov '11 / Mustel / 42% / 37%

Average / Mustel / 43% / 34% / Difference = 9%

 

scott16

NorthReport wrote:

The next British Columbia provincial election is tentatively scheduled for May 14, 2013

Here is some of the pollster's most recent polling with their averages:

Date / Pollster / NDP / Libs

Nov '12 / Angus Reid / 47% / 29%

Oct '12 / Angus Reid / 49% / 26%

Sep '12 / Angus Reid / 46% / 25%

Average / Angus Reid / 47% / 27% / Difference = 20% 

Aug '12 / Environics / 47% / 29%

Average / Environics / 47% / 29% / Difference = 18%

Aug '12 / Forum / 45% / 23%

Jun '12 / Forum / 50% / 20%

May '12 / Forum / 48% / 23%

Average / Forum / 48% / 22% / Difference = 26% 

Sep '12 / Ipsos Reid / 49% / 32%

Jun '12 / Ipsos Reid / 48% / 29%

Feb '12 / Ipsos Reid / 44% / 32%

Average / Ipsos Reid / 47% / 31% / Difference = 16%

Sep '12 / Mustel / 45% / 32%

Mar '12 / Mustel / 42% / 34%

Nov '11 / Mustel / 42% / 37%

Average / Mustel / 43% / 34% / Difference = 9%

 

With these numbers how many seats would the NDP get? What seats would the NDP get that they have never won before?

theleftyinvestor

Well the October 308 projection was from 49 NDP / 26 LIB / 16 CON:

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2012/10/bc-ndp-still-in-control.html

It predicted for seats: 71 NDP, 11 LIB, 2 IND, 1 CON. But no breakdown of which seats. Seeing as the NDP led in every region, you could probably get a good first-order estimate of who stays Liberal by listing the ridings with the highest Liberal vote count in 2009. Of course, a better metric might be the gap between NDP & LIB votes but I'm lazy.

Vancouver-Quilchena: 70.32% LIB; West Vancouver-Capilano: 66.68% LIB; Peace River South: 63.24% LIB
Surrey-Cloverdale: 62.76% LIB; Richmond Centre: 62.06% LIB Surrey-White Rock: 61.7% LIB;
Richmond-Steveston: 61.08% LIB; Vancouver-Langara: 59.67% LIB;  Richmond East: 58.95% LIB; 
Abbotsford-Mission: 58.39% LIB; Coquitlam-Burke Mountain: 57.05% LIB (did I miss any >57%?)

And assume that all the rest of the Liberal ridings are in play for the NDP.

Note that Vancouver-False Creek falls below that cutoff, but they also had extenuating circumstances in 2009 due to a local NDP fail. It'll be an interesting race. Vision parks board councillor Constance Barnes lost the nomination to newbie Matt Toner, and it looks like the BC Liberal candidate showdown will be between ex-MLA Lorme Mayencourt (gah) and ex-mayor Sam Sullivan (less gah, but ugh). So who knows how safe that seat will be.

theleftyinvestor

Projection:

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/british-columbia.html

62 NDP, 22 LIB, 0 CON, 0 GRN, 1 IND.

Interesting to consider how the seats break down in terms of his probabilities of correct calls:

NDP 90-100% 28, 80-90% 9, 70-80% 10, 60-70% 10, 50-60% 5

LIB 90-100% 1, 80-90% 1, 70-80% 6, 60-70% 9, 50-60% 5

Threshold for a bare majority is 43 seats. If the NDP were to win only the 70-100% seats, they'd walk away with a 47-seat majority. If the Liberals were to win only their 70-100% seats, they'd be reduced to 8.

So let's not get cocky but these are incredibly strong results.

Incidentally the highest projection for the BCCons is in Boundary-Similkameen, LIB 26.8 NDP 36.0 CON 28.5. So if there's anywhere they really push hard, that could be the one riding they win over.

 

NorthReport

Forget the silly seat  forecasting - this article is a plant.

Grenier is behind the times as to what is going on in BC, and the election will be a lot closer than people think.

Christy Clark Exiting Highway to Hell

But can she pass on the right as polls show NDP still well ahead of BC's political traffic?

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2012/11/27/Christy-Clark-Exit/

 

 

theleftyinvestor

The 308 forecast does already include the poll cited in Tieleman's article to my knowledge.

Note that the model has not only max/min ranges on present results, but also based on how much it could move by May. So the error bars do go as far as the range of a Liberal win, but it's just highly improbable.

What do you mean by the article being a plant?

Sure the election could get a lot closer, but with the NDP near 49% Clark would really have to pull NDP voters, or make them want to stay home, or massively amp up Liberal turnout. Hugging Conservative dissidents a little bit closer isn't going to cut it.

scott16

I don't know where to post this.

If the 308's seat count is the result of the election, who would be in the cabinet? Deputy Premiers?

Could Kelowna vote in the NDP?

NorthReport

We are at least 5 months, and perhaps a year and a half away, from a BC election.

And yes Kelowna could go NDP with the right candidate.

theleftyinvestor

Although the latest poll does show the gap narrowing... can't be complacent. 

scott16 wrote:

I don't know where to post this.

If the 308's seat count is the result of the election, who would be in the cabinet? Deputy Premiers?

Could Kelowna vote in the NDP?

I could see Carole James being a shoe-in for Deputy Premier. When all is said and done she accomplished a lot for the party, even if you disagree with some of the ways she went about it. And she remains a very popular and outspoken MLA after resigning the leadership.

Dix's former leadership competitors Mike Farnworth and John Horgan would certainly get significant cabinet positions; Nicholas Simons could get something too. And of course my MLA Jenny Kwan will have to get something notable (even though she supported Farnworth), seeing as she is and will be the only NDP MLA to continuously hold office since the NDP was last in government.

Rob Fleming has been doing a great job as Environment Critic and I have no doubt he'd be in cabinet too. Dawn Black if she doesn't go for Speaker. Mable Elmore who helped Dix's campaign considerably. Kathy Corrigan, Shane Simpson, Joe Trasolini, all good contenders. And my former MLA Spencer Chandra Herbert has been doing such an incredibly dedicated job... he'd probably get a junior cabinet post with room to grow. And these are just the people who are already MLAs - they could have some interesting new talent coming in.

theleftyinvestor

Taking into account the latest poll, 308 projection moves to 60 NDP 24 LIB 1 IND.

Regardless of the motion of the Liberal vote, the NDP level has been remarkably stable (fingers crossed, don't jinx it, don't jinx it...)

jerrym

A new Ipsos Reid online poll conducted between November 26th and 30th with a margin of error of 3.1% found the NDP holding statistically constant at 48% (down 1%). The BC Liberals at 35% are up 3% at the expense of the BC Conservatives who fell to 9% from 12% because of their ongoing infighting. The BC Greens, despite their good showing in the Victoria byelection, have only risen a statistically insignificant 1%, while 20% of BCers remain undecided. 

The NDP lead in all regions of the province and have a 29% lead among women voters (56% to 27%). Only 34% of voters approve of Premier Clark's performance while 59% disapprove. On the other hand, 53% approve of Dix's performance while 34% disapprove. Conservative leader John Cummins has lost 10% of his approval rating since September because of Conservative infighting to fall to 13%. The anticharismatic Green Party leader, Jane Sterk, leaves no impression on 55% of voters while her positve ratings (24%) roughly equal her negative ratings (22%). 

Dix (39%) has a 16% lead in best choice for Premier over Clark (23%), while Cummins at 7% and Sterk at 3% trail badly. 

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5915

The only factor working for the Liberals is that 59% of BCers think the province is in very good or good shape economically. Therefore expect the Libs to emphasize this during the campaign and to use their favourite tactic of the 'Socialist hordes at the gates will destroy the economy'. However, the above stats suggest that BCers see relatively little relationship between their feelings about the economy and the government's peformance. In spite of this, one should strike a note of caution as the series of provincial and federal elections during the last year have all returned governments that took this approach. But I believe the dislike of Clark, and before her Campbell, that permeates the province will make this a very difficult sell. 

NorthReport

Ipsos Reid just released a new poll tonite, which is again good news for the NDP and great news for Adrian.

The next British Columbia provincial election is tentatively scheduled for May 14, 2013

Here is some of the pollster's most recent polling with their averages:

Date / Pollster / NDP / Libs / Cons / Grns

Nov '12 / Angus Reid / 47% / 29%

Oct '12 / Angus Reid / 49% / 26%

Sep '12 / Angus Reid / 46% / 25%

Average / Angus Reid / 47% / 27% / Difference = 20% 


Aug '12 / Environics / 47% / 29%

Average / Environics / 47% / 29% / Difference = 18%


Aug '12 / Forum / 45% / 23%

Jun '12 / Forum / 50% / 20%

May '12 / Forum / 48% / 23%

Average / Forum / 48% / 22% / Difference = 26%

 

Dec 4 / Ipsos Reid / 48% / 35% / 9% / 7% (most recent poll)

Sep '12 / Ipsos Reid / 49% / 32%

Jun '12 / Ipsos Reid / 48% / 29%

Average / Ipsos Reid / 48% / 32% / Difference still = 16%


Sep '12 / Mustel / 45% / 32%

Mar '12 / Mustel / 42% / 34%

Nov '11 / Mustel / 42% / 37%

Average / Mustel / 43% / 34% / Difference = 9%

 

 

jerrym

The BC NDP lead of 29% among women voters (56% to 27%) in the Ipsos Reid poll is what is producing the 13% overall lead over the BC Liberals. Ipsos Reid found that among men, the Liberals were slightly ahead at 43% compared to the  NDP's 41% (a statistical tie). 

Vaughn Palmer suggests other findings in the poll suggest why there is such a large difference between men and women and why the NDP is ahead with women despite being led by a man while the Liberals are led by a woman. 

"When the pollster asked 'how would you rate the condition of the B.C. economy?' men and women responded in roughly similar proportions, with about 60 per cent saying 'good,' and 40 per cent or so saying 'bad.' But when the survey raised a question about the mood of the province — 'Do you think things in B.C. right now are heading more in the right direction or in the wrong direction?' — the genders diverged.

Men, by a margin of 54 per cent to 36 per cent, thought the province was headed in the right direction. Women leaned the other way, with only 39 per cent supporting the way things are headed, while 47 per cent said B.C. was on the wrong track. Thus it would appear that fewer women saw the favourable economic conditions translating into results that mattered to them.

The latter observation dovetails with a quote that I came across recently from W.A.C. Bennett, B.C.’s longest-serving premier: 'Scratch a man and he’s a Liberal or a Tory. But a woman is more genuine. She just wants her country to advance. The women kept us in power.' ...

The Ipsos Reid findings also suggest that men and women differ over how Clark’s limitations should affect the re-election prospects for her party.

Both genders expressed significant disapproval of her performance as premier of the province. But it would appear that men were more inclined to overlook her shortcomings and stick with her party, perhaps because of its economic record. Asked to rate the two major leaders, men were more approving (48 per cent) than disapproving (41) of the job done by Dix as Opposition leader. They disapproved (57 per cent) more than they approved (39 per cent) of the job being done by Clark as premier. Still some men were prepared to put aside their reservations about Clark’s performance and still support her party, given the competitive position of the Liberals vis-a-vis the New Democrats in the party preference rankings. Whereas with women, their expressed preference for the NDP (56 per cent) pretty much matched the 57-per- cent approval rating they accorded to Dix. Only 30 per cent of women had a favourable impression of Clark and only 27 per cent were inclined to vote Liberal.

To recap, it would appear that women, as a group, aren’t making the same connections as men between the performance of the economy and their own priorities for B.C. As well, women may be less forgiving than men of Clark’s stumblings as a leader."

http://www.leaderpost.com/opinion/columnists/Vaughn+Palmer+Clark+unpopul...

 

jerrym

scott16 wrote:

Could Kelowna vote in the NDP?

Kelowna could vote in the NDP. One factor that should help the NDP is that of the 6 Conservative candidates nominated for the May 2013 election, three of them are from the three Kelowna ridings. (http://www.kelownacapnews.com/news/181873781.html)

The BC Conservatives had some of some of their best showings in the Kelowna area in 2009, getting 11.9% of the vote in Kelowna-Mission, 11.4% of the vote in Kelowna-Lake Country, and 9.1% of the vote in Westside-Kelowna. With early candidate nominations helping to get their candidates known in a socially conservative region, the Cons should take some votes that would otherwise go to BC Liberals, who have many more federal Conservative than federal Liberal party members.

Nevertheless, it will be a significant climb for the NDP to overtake the Liberals as the Liberals won these ridings against the NDP by 52.1% to 26.6% in Kelowna-Lake Country, by 53.9% to 26.1% in Kelwona-Mission, and by 53.3% to 29.2% in Westside Kelowna in 2009.

http://www.elections.bc.ca/index.php/resource-centre/reports/2009-ge-res...

 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

That area of the province has many retired people from Alberta. Even if they are fed up with the government they will not vote for the NDP.  If the NDP wins all the Kelowna ridings then the Liberals likely would be in single digit seat range.  I would rather they get reduced to a couple of dozen seats and have the BC Conservatives win one or two close seats.  If the Liberals fall to far their Howe Street masters will merely rebrand under a new name like maybe the BC Party.

Aristotleded24

NorthReport wrote:
Kelowna could go NDP with the right candidate.

I thought the NDP would be rooting for the left candidate!Wink

NorthReport

Aristotleded24 wrote:

NorthReport wrote:
Kelowna could go NDP with the right candidate.

I thought the NDP would be rooting for the left candidate!Wink

True dat but unfortunately not seeing it here, at least so far

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