BC polls, thread #2

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jerrym

Roundabout Communication has used the resutlts of the last 9 BC election polls to average the following results for 6,761 participants:

                     Provincially      Interior        Northern       Lower Mainland      Vancouver Island

NDP                   48%               42%            48%            47%                     53%

Liberals              29%              30.5%          27.5%         30%                     25%

Conservatives     14%               17%            15%            13%                    11.5%

Greens               8.5%              8.0%           8.5%           7.0%                   9.5%

Independents     1.5%              2.5%           3.0%           2.0%                   0.5%

http://www.castanet.net/news/Poll/85159/Provincial-election-predictions

These average results are likely currently a little low for the BC Liberals and little for the BC Conservatives as the Cons have been in a tailspin recently due to party infighting over the leadership. This has been reflected in the 2 most recent polls. For example, in the most recent poll while the NDP is holding constant at 48%, the BC Liberals are at 35% with their rise coming at the expense of the BC Conservatives who fell to 9%. (http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5915)

 

Mean Moe
Mean Moe

Double Post

janfromthebruce

What happens when an old punk rocker enters politics

 

Soon, however, DOA will take its final bow – at least for now – as Keithley prepares for what he hopes will be a political career: In anticipation of the spring provincial election, he is going after the NDP nomination in the suburban riding of Coquitlam-Burke Mountain. Next week, D.O.A. kicks off a farewell tour with a show at Vancouver’s Rickshaw Theatre, followed by dates elsewhere in B.C., in Alberta and in California.

David Young

I guess Andrew Cash must have been a big inspiration, eh?

 

theleftyinvestor

http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/2013/01/14/John-Slater-Resigns/

His riding, Boundary-Similkameen, was pretty strong for the BCCons (20%). Depending on how the split falls, his running as an independent could make it into a four-way Lib/Con/NDP/Ind race.

NorthReport

So to all those who think the federal Liberals have an ounce of progressiveness in them take a bow, I mean bow out, as the Federal Liberals are supporting this extreme right-wing Liberal  government in BC.

Yikes!!!

EXCLUSIVE: Right-wing Group Plans $1 million 'Blanket Coverage' Ad Blitz Against BC NDP

Million dollar campaign supporting BC Liberals helped by federal Liberal lobbyists.

http://billtieleman.blogspot.ca/2013/01/exclusive-right-wing-group-plans...

"Christy has not been given a fair shake. She has not been identified as a competent premier." -- Jim Shepard, Concerned Citizens for B.C

.
A political action group formed by a retired corporate leader will soon launch a $1 million "blanket coverage... full multi-media campaign" to attack the BC New Democrats and help re-elect Premier Christy Clark's BC Liberals, according to leaked documents obtained by 24 hours Vancouver and The Tyee.
And Concerned Citizens for B.C. -- created by Jim Shepard, the right-wing former Clark economic advisor and ex-Canfor and Finning International CEO -- is running the campaign with the help of prominent lobbyists with strong ties to the federal and BC Liberal parties.
CC4BC, as it refers to itself, told supporters in a Nov. 30, 2012 email obtained by 24 hours about advertising plans that "the cost of such a bold undertaking is $1 million" and that it is "already to $520,000." "The positive feedback we get from all quarters indicates we will reach our goal well before year end. That will enable us to come out with a full multi-media campaign early in the New Year," the email sent by Shepard states. No spending limits or disclosure Shepard has been a vociferous critic of the NDP, claiming that it introduced "socialism" when in power in the 1990s. "You know, we lived through socialism in B.C. for 10 years. I know what it looks like and it is not pretty," Shepard said in 2010, adding that he was similarly worried about U.S. President Barack Obama political proclivities. Shepard's $1 million advertising campaign -- or any other -- isn't subject to any spending limits or financial disclosure so long as it concludes before the provincial election officially begins with the writ being dropped 28 days before the May 14 vote, Elections BC confirmed Friday. That's because a court decision striking down BC Liberal legislation that attempted to ban pre-election advertising. Ties to Grits Wazuku Advisory Groups' Kirsten Avison confirmed in a telephone interview Friday that the firm is doing paid work for CC4BC but had no details on its ad plans and did not call back with additional information as requested or respond to email. Wazuku's three principals are Mike Watson, Brad Zubyk and Steve Kukucha. Kukucha did not return telephone and email interview requests. Both Kukucha and Zubyk have strong ties to the federal Liberal Party as well as the B.C. Liberal Party and Clark. Zubyk was communications director for the federal Liberals in B.C. in the 2008 and 2011 campaigns and Kukucha was senior advisor to former Liberal Environment Minister David Anderson. Wazuku, Kukucha and Watson are BC Liberal Party donors. Zubyk was also active in Clark's BC Liberal leadership campaign and has worked for the Independent Contractors and Businesses Association in an expensive anti-NDP campaign before the 2009 election. The ICBA's Philip Hochstein is a vociferous opponent of the NDP and unions in B.C. Zubyk also testified for the B.C. government in court in support of its earlier legislation restricting election advertising. Ironically, Zubyk's political career in B.C. started when he was communications coordinator for the NDP caucus under then-Premier Mike Harcourt and he later ran two unsuccessful BC NDP leadership campaigns for ex-MLA Corky Evans. Zubyk's current lobbying clients include General Electric Canada and the B.C. Maritime Employers Association.

NorthReport
jerrym

With 16 weeks to go until the election and the NDP ahead by 15% (46% to 31% for the BC Liberals with the BC Cons and Greens tied at 10%) according to the Angus Reid poll released yesterday, Vaughn Palmer points out that the Liberals need to pick up a point a week in order to win. 

In order to give the Liberals a chance to do this, the corporate sector under the leadership of former Finning and Canfor executive Jim Shepard has already collected $700,000 of a promised $1 million for a business campaign against the NDP that is aimed at Adrian Dix. The first ads are already up and running, attacking Dix, as Glen Clark's chief advisor during the 1990s NDP government for allegedly boosting highway construction costs by using union labour, the building of the $460 million fast ferries which were sold for $20 million and for having to resign from the premier's office during a police investigation. 

Palmer notes that although Dix leads Christy Clark by 29% to 19% (with 5% for the Cons' John Cummins and 3% for the Greens' Sterk) in voter's choice for best premier, the results also suggest that many voters still don't know Dix well and therefore the Liberal campaign is focusing on attacking him as the quickest way of pulling down the NDP in the polls. With one third of the Liberal voters in the last election having switched to the NDP or Cons, the attack ads are aimed at regaining these voters by raising doubts about voting NDP among voters who do not traditionally vote for the party. 

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Liberal+supporters+launch+venomous+camp...

 

The NDP lead in Metro Vancouver (46% to 29%), the North (45% to 32%), and Vancouver Island (51% to 27%), while it is tied with the Libs in the Interior at 39%. For the first time the NDP has a substantial lead over the Libs among men (46% to 34%) as well as women (45% to 28%).

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/2013.01.21_Politics...

 

An indication of just how dirty the Liberals intend to get comes from the Boundary-Similkameen riding in the Interior along the US border where the sitting Liberal MLA and the NDP candidate both resigned yesterday. 

"John Slater, a sitting MLA who left the B.C. Liberal caucus last week after being refused the party's nomination, had announced he was planning to run as an independent. On Monday, Slater issued an abrupt reversal, saying he was now planning not to run because of the "politics of personal destruction. We have reached a profoundly disturbing point in our politics in British Columbia. Instead of a campaign about positive ideas, good policy, and what is best for British Columbians, we are instead witnessing a campaign based on fear and smear. B.C. deserves better," Slater said in a written statement. "I cannot put my family or myself through the continual barrage of innuendoes and smear which have been launched against me, and which will continue until I withdraw as a candidate in the upcoming provincial election. So I say, 'Enough.' "

The NDP announced its candidate in the riding, Marji Basso, had also stepped down shortly after Slater's announcement Monday. "I received a letter from Marji Basso on Sunday stating that she was resigning for personal reasons and we've accepted her resignation," NDP provincial secretary Jan O'Brien said. "O'Brien would not go into detail about why Basso was stepping aside, but did point out a fair amount of time had passed since Basso's nomination in the summer of 2011. The party has begun a search for a new candidate."

Neither Basso nor Slater could be reached for comment.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Rival+candidates+drop+race/7853106/stor...

 

 

theleftyinvestor

If you look at 308's poll tracker for provincial polls, you'll see the NDP punched the 45% mark in April and has stayed above it steadily ever since. The entire Liberal rise has been at the expense of BCCons. Even the Greens have picked up a point or two. And it's not like Liberals haven't already been in attack mode that whole time. I figure, no matter how much the gap may close, that 45% mark is a good indicator of whether Clark's attacks have accomplished anything. Below 45% the NDP ends up back in risky 2009 territory.

I gotta say, something about a BC political party that is so desperate for power that they have to resort both to taxpayer-funded political advertising *and* raising money in Calgary... doesn't exactly cry "comeback".

theleftyinvestor

theleftyinvestor wrote:

If you look at 308's poll tracker for provincial polls, you'll see the NDP punched the 45% mark in April and has stayed above it steadily ever since. The entire Liberal rise has been at the expense of BCCons. Even the Greens have picked up a point or two. And it's not like Liberals haven't already been in attack mode that whole time. I figure, no matter how much the gap may close, that 45% mark is a good indicator of whether Clark's attacks have accomplished anything. Below 45% the NDP ends up back in risky 2009 territory.

I gotta say, something about a BC political party that is so desperate for power that they have to resort both to taxpayer-funded political advertising *and* raising money in Calgary... doesn't exactly cry "comeback".

Nom nom nom, time to eat my words. Latest poll from Mustel NDP 43 / LIB 33 / CON 11 / GRN 11. Mind you this firm has seen more optimistic LIB results than others in the past year.

Of note, in this poll, LIB+CON>NDP by one point. Then again, NDP+GRN>50 for whatever that's worth. If the NDP-LIB gap narrows any further I wouldn't be surprised to see that eat into the Green vote.

 

theleftyinvestor

Not exactly polls, but the UBC Prediction Market just opened for the BC 2013 election.

http://predictionmarkets.ca/

I participated in a similar one for the 2008 federal election and made a (little) bit of money on it. The idea is, you create and buy/sell shares that represent what you believe will be the election results. You have a monetary incentive to assign a value to the shares representing what you honestly think will happen, and not just what you hope. There are many examples that have shown prediction markets to be excellent forecasters for this reason.

There are 3 markets:

- Popular vote: Shares for LIB, NDP, CON, GRN and Other/Independent. After the election, your share is worth (in cents) the actual popular vote percentage.

- Seats share: Again, shares for all the above, and after the election your share is worth (in cents) the seat share percentage.

- Majority government market: Shares for LIB majority, NDP majority and Other outcome. After the election, the share representing the actual outcome is worth $1, and the others $0.

Unit portfolio: Each costs $1, and consists of one of each type of share sold in that market. If you hold the unit portfolio through to the end, it'll still be worth $1 because the sum of its components is $1 by definition.

So you can put money into the system (max $1K) and if you feel a share is undervalued, you buy it anticipating a profit.

If you feel a share is overvalued, what you can do is buy unit portfolios and then sell shares.

Democracy for sale ;)

felixr

jerrym wrote:

An indication of just how dirty the Liberals intend to get comes from the Boundary-Similkameen riding in the Interior along the US border where the sitting Liberal MLA and the NDP candidate both resigned yesterday. 

How is this evidence of the Liberal's dirty tactics?

The NDP's poll numbers remain very good but I find Adrian Dix's silence annoying. You have a premier who shows a profound lack of leadership and direction, and an opposition member who's better at playing mum and hoping he lands in the premier's chair by default than actually governing.

theleftyinvestor

Dix seems to have been letting his shadow cabinet do more of the talking on individual issues. Probably not such a bad idea.

NorthReport

Yup, I think we should attack Dix for being shrewd, instead of being a blabbermouth like our current Premier. Laughing

felixr wrote:

jerrym wrote:

An indication of just how dirty the Liberals intend to get comes from the Boundary-Similkameen riding in the Interior along the US border where the sitting Liberal MLA and the NDP candidate both resigned yesterday. 

How is this evidence of the Liberal's dirty tactics?

The NDP's poll numbers remain very good but I find Adrian Dix's silence annoying. You have a premier who shows a profound lack of leadership and direction, and an opposition member who's better at playing mum and hoping he lands in the premier's chair by default than actually governing.

theleftyinvestor

I would say that right now the Liberals are their own worst enemy. 

I think the NDP is also taking the tactic that, right now, they are not in an election so they are not releasing their platform nor campaigning. The spotlight is on Liberals digging their own grave, and previewing a platform (no matter how good) gives Liberals something to attack and distract the electorate from their own actions. So let's hope that the platform they unveil is worth the wait...

Mean Moe
jerrym

A new poll released February 6th by Justason Marketing Intelligence shows the NDP with a 22% lead over the BC Liberals. 

"The poll, taken during hearings (and accompanying public protests) about proposed Northern Gateway pipeline and tanker proposals finds no improvement in support for the governing B.C. Liberals. “Clearly, the B.C. NDP are continuing to hold their support base, while the B.C. Liberals have failed to attract voters who were once loyal prior to the HST and new leadership,” says pollster Barb Justason.

Support for the B.C. NDP stands at 48% of decided voters, unchanged since October; B.C. Liberal support stands at 26%, statistically unchanged since October. Following leadership concerns and a drop in support in October, the B.C. Conservatives have regained some of their losses (now at 12%). Support for the B.C. Greens stands at 11%. ...

Top election issues vary by party support:

  • Healthcare for B.C. NDP supporters (18%),
  • Economy for BC Liberal supporters (20%),
  • Taxes for the BC Conservatives supporters (15%), and
  • Environment for the B.C. Green supporters (23%).

But pipeline and tanker proposals rank second as top issues for NDP, Liberal and Green supporters (11-15%).

“Pipelines and tanker proposals are a coalescing issue in this election race.”

'Voters from most parties are on the same page when it comes to pipeline and tanker proposals. Pipelines and tanker proposals are a coalescing issue in this election race and voters are hungry for leadership,' explains Justason."

The pipelines issue has the potential to make the election a real blowout in my opinion. 

http://www.justasonmi.com/?p=3217

 

NorthReport

Gee, no mention of this poll in the mainstream press, as once again the scum show their true colours

NDP - 39%

Libs - 27%

Cons -15%

Grns - 14%

NDP now leads by 12% Sweet!

Go Cummins Go!

BC NDP 12 points ahead of Liberals: EKOS

Further strengthening the NDP's lead is the demographic composition of their supporters. Unlike their Ontario counterparts who have been hamstringed by their younger, dispassionate base, BC's NDP party leads handily with Baby Boomers and is fiercely competitive among BC's seniors, groups that consistently vote in record numbers.

In an another interesting development, the BC Conservative Party has leapt from virtual obscurity in the last election to third place and now controls 15 per cent of the vote. At these numbers, there is a very realistic probability that the party may elect its first representative to the legislature since Victor Stephens' win in the 1978 Oak Bay by-election.

Finally, the BC Green Party stands at a seemingly impressive 14 points. This rise may simply be the result of frustration with the mainstream parties, but merits watching as we have seen a broad based rise in Green Party support throughout the country (in addition to "other" parties).

The breakdown shows New Democrats leading among many groups of voters. Among women, 44.9 percent support the NDP compared with 21.4 percent for the Liberals. The Liberals trail the NDP in all age groups and all education levels from high school or less to university or higher. The Liberals also trail the NDP among both native-born Canadians and immigrants.



http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/2013/02/14/12_points_ahead/

NorthReport

BC NDP on track for big win, poll indicates

Support for British Columbia’s New Democrats have them hovering in majority government territory according to an EKOS poll released today.

The NDP, whose popularity has continued to rise under leader Adrian Dix as Christy Clark’s party has taken a nosedive in polls, are currently backed by 39 per cent of decided voters compared with the Liberals’ 27 per cent.

“The NDP will land a majority hold — and a very healthy one at that,” said Alex G. Tsakumis,  a well known political commentator and writer based in Vancouver, adding that “the B.C. Liberals have no plan and (have) run out of an agenda.”

“People are thirsty for some leadership.”

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2013/02/14/ndp-could-take-majority-in-bc-electio...

 

theleftyinvestor

Um, it's a 12-point lead, but why are none of the headlines actually calling it for what it is - the first time in a very long time that the NDP has polled below 39%? That's worse than under Carole James.

Are we seeing a statistical blip here, or is there something that is genuinely sapping voters away from the NDP? The Greens effect?

NorthReport

And wehat were the Cons polling basck then?

---------------------------------------------------

BC NDP CURRENTLY POISED TO FORM NEXT PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT

BC CONSERVATIVES EMERGE AS CONTENDER FOR UPCOMING ELECTION

Since their narrow victory in 2009, support for the British Columbia Liberals has fallen precariously and is trailing almost 12 points behind the BC NDP who, at 39 per cent, are within striking distance of a majority government. The reasons for this rather dramatic shift in support are unclear, but factors such as the Harmonized Sales Tax, the deficit, service cuts may be at play.Further strengthening the NDP’s lead is the demographic composition of their supporters. Unlike their Ontario counterparts who have been hamstringed by their younger, dispassionate base, BC’s NDP party leads handily with Baby Boomers and is fiercely competitive among BC’s seniors, groups that consistently vote in record numbers.

In an another interesting development, the BC Conservative Party has leapt from virtual obscurity in the last election to third place and now controls 15 per cent of the vote. At these numbers, there is a very realistic probability that the party may elect its first representative to the legislature since Victor Stephens’ win in the 1978 Oak Bay by-

 

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2013/02/bc-ndp-currently-poised-to...

theleftyinvestor

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Liberals+high+alert+fend+budget+upset+m...

  Liberals on high alert to fend off budget upset as majority dwindles

B.C. Liberal MLAs will have to remain especially close to the legislature next week to avoid being deeply embarrassed, and possibly worse, by a watchful opposition eager to exploit their thinning numbers.

With the government set to introduce a budget on Tuesday — a confidence measure that needs a majority of support if the government is to stand — the Liberals face a high-stakes showdown, where every body counts.

The issue arises as the Liberals’ slim four-seat voting majority in the house over opposition forces has been eroded even further by personal circumstances: Kevin Falcon is away from Victoria waiting for his child to be born; Pat Pimm has been at home this week recovering from knee surgery; and Blair Lekstrom will be away until Wednesday for his daughter’s wedding.

Meanwhile, retiring members, who are still crucial for daily votes, are turning their minds to life after politics.

During question period Thursday — after Kash Heed departed early for the week — the Liberals were left with just a two-seat majority over the NDP and four independents.

It would be kind of hilarious if the Liberals fell on their asses and had to call an early election.

jerrym

theleftyinvestor wrote:

Um, it's a 12-point lead, but why are none of the headlines actually calling it for what it is - the first time in a very long time that the NDP has polled below 39%? That's worse than under Carole James.

Are we seeing a statistical blip here, or is there something that is genuinely sapping voters away from the NDP? The Greens effect?

The poll may well be an outlier with regards to the NDP vote as Justason poll of February 5-6 found 48% for the NDP, which is in line with most other polls in the recent past, and a 22% lead over the Liberals' 26% while the Ekos poll from February 1-10, which is in the same time frame, dropped the NDP to 39% while the Liberals were at 27% for 12% lead. With 3 months to go until the election, and plenty of polls in between, we will know soon enough.

http://www.justasonmi.com/?p=3217

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2013/02/bc-ndp-currently-poised-to...

 

theleftyinvestor

jerrym wrote:

The poll may well be an outlier with regards to the NDP vote as Justason poll of February 5-6 found 48% for the NDP, which is in line with most other polls in the recent past, and a 22% lead over the Liberals' 26% while the Ekos poll from February 1-10, which is in the same time frame, dropped the NDP to 39% while the Liberals were at 27% for 12% lead. With 3 months to go until the election, and plenty of polls in between, we will know soon enough.

http://www.justasonmi.com/?p=3217

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2013/02/bc-ndp-currently-poised-to...

 

True. There was also Mustel at 43% though, and it had me wondering if *that* one was the outlier. So now with 39 it's a concern. If we see a third poll come out below 45% then we'll be able to say for sure that something is going on, after so many months where the polls *never* dropped below 45 for NDP.

NorthReport

Actually if the EKOS poll results were to hold on election day, the BC NDP would win a large majority.

theleftyinvestor

NorthReport wrote:

Actually if the EKOS poll results were to hold on election day, the BC NDP would win a large majority.

Yes, but consider the difference:

A 39% majority government against a split Lib/Con vote that adds up to more than the NDP would mean four years of right-wing media outlets crowing about how the anti-NDP vote MUST be united in time to kick them out. It means winning with a smaller vote share than Carole James. It means another possible backstabbing NDP leadership review.

A 48% majority government, where the Lib/Con vote adds up to less than the NDP, would mean a mandate strong enough for the opposition to at least grudgingly agree that they blew it.

NorthReport

Early election a possibility for B.C. as Liberal numbers dwindle

http://www.globaltvbc.com/early+election+a+possibility+for+bc+as+liberal...

NorthReport

There will be a well-orchastrated campaign from the mainstream media no matter what the election results once the NDP form the government. That's a given just like meteorites and astroids exist.

NorthReport

Well it is what ends well that counts and tonite ended very, very well for Adrian.

Angus Reid

NDP - 47%

Libs - 31%

16% difference in favour of the NDP..................Woo! Hoo!

 

theleftyinvestor

I am getting to the point, though, where I'd really really like to see their actual platform. It's hard to blindly cheer the party on without actually seeing what they will and won't commit to.

And please, please, don't let there be any regressive populist surprises in this platform like the Ontario NDP is so fond of.

NorthReport

All I want to see is a more level playing field for everyone in BC with fairness and integrity built in to reduce the gap between the rich and the less rich, as an esential part of the new government - Adrian should keep on taking the high road all the way through.

 

I know it is primarily Ottawa's domain, but capital gains and dividends which are the biggest drivers of the growing gap between the rich and the poor need to be completely eliminated. Don't worry though, folks will still buy stocks.

theleftyinvestor

Re: dividends, that's also a function of the way said income is taxed inside the corporation. Income that flows out of a corporation as "regular income" (not dividends, fully taxable to shareholders) is tax-deductible inside the corporation. Qualified dividend income has been taxed inside the corporation, and the subsequent dividend tax credit for shareholders is meant to account for the tax already paid. Keep in mind that when large pension funds, RRSPs, TFSAs etc receive "regular income" it gets tax-sheltered completely, while dividend income does collect tax inside the corporation before flowing out to tax shelters. Also keep in mind that "regular income" to foreign investors attracts a withholding tax that Canada gets to keep, while dividend income to foreign investors attracts *both* the internal tax paid by the corporation and the withholding tax Canada gets to keep.

If the DTC were eliminated, it would give corporations an incentive to put out regular income distributions instead of dividends (since, to CDN investors, the tax treatment would be the same - why not make it the kind of income that is tax deductible to the corp?). This would reduce opportunities for taxation of that income at the corporate level prior to flowing out to tax shelters and foreign investors.

So any change in the taxation of dividend income, and the accompanying consequences, would have to be fully costed out inside and outside the corporate structures to determine if it's actually going to raise any additional revenues.

NorthReport

Devastating stats for BC's un-elected by the people Premier

 

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/48633/british-columbians-assess-personal...

NorthReport

Throne Speech and Budget Have No Effect on British Columbian Voters

The opposition BC New Democrats keeps a sizeable lead over the governing BC Liberals, and Adrian Dix is still the preferred premier.

 

NDP - 47%

Lib - 31%

Cons - 9%

Grn - 10%

 

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/48679/throne-speech-and-budget-have-no-e...

felixr

The BC Conservative Party support has collapsed like a cheap tent. Most damning for Clark if I read rightly is the 29% of BC Liberals that say it is time for another party to be in power. Still I think this is Dix's election to lose. He hasn't proposed much in the way of government.

NorthReport

Governments, more often than not, defeat themselves. And after all the BC Liberals have been in power for what is it, 12 years now. 

 

NorthReport

Angus Reid released a poll tonite with the same stats as in January 47%-31%, 16% spread

The next British Columbia provincial election is tentatively scheduled for May 14, 2013

Here is some of the pollster's most recent polling:

Date / Pollster / NDP / Libs / Cons / Grns

 

Angus Reid

Feb '13 / 47% / 31% / 9% / 10% - most recent poll

Jan '13 / 47% / 31% / 10% / 10%

Nov '12 / Angus Reid / 47% / 29%

Oct '12 / Angus Reid / 49% / 26%

Sep '12 / Angus Reid / 46% / 25%

 

EKOS

Feb '13 / EKOS / 39% / 27% / 15% / 14%

 

Environics

Aug '12 / Environics / 47% / 29%

 

Forum

Aug '12 / Forum / 45% / 23%

Jun '12 / Forum / 50% / 20%

May '12 / Forum / 48% / 23%

 

Ipsos Reid

Jan '13 / Ipsos Reid / 48% / 35% / 9% / ?

Dec '12 / Ipsos Reid / 48% / 35% / 9% / 7% 

Sep '12 / Ipsos Reid / 49% / 32%

Jun '12 / Ipsos Reid / 48% / 29%

 

Justason

Feb '13 / Justason / 48% / 26% / 12% / 11%

 

Mustel

Jan '13 / Mustel / 43% / 33% / 11% / 11%

Sep '12 / Mustel / 45% / 32%

Mar '12 / Mustel / 42% / 34%

Nov '11 / Mustel / 42% / 37%

 

Roundabout Communications

Jan '13 / Roundabout Comm / 48% / 29% / 14% / 8.5%

 

 

 

 

SpectateSwamp SpectateSwamp's picture

Dang people are stupid.
 
A number of people didn't want to sign my nomination papers (75 needed) as an Independent because an Independent would split the vote. If Hitler and Stalin were running as the main party leaders; the good candidates would get overlooked. It's all about voting strategically against a candidate... Too Bad..

NorthReport

 

UBC runs futures market on BC 2013 election

In the most recent overview of the popular vote, published at 10:45 PST on Feb. 27, the NDP was holding steady at 45.88¢, with the amount reflecting the percentage of the provincial vote investors currently expect the New Democrats to win. The Liberals' last transaction was at 35.00¢. The Greens were at 9.50¢ and the Conservatives' last transaction was at 4.00¢.

In the majority market, a B.C. Liberal majority was selling at 2.0¢ while an NDP majority was selling at 94.89¢.

http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/2013/02/27/UBC_futures_market/

theleftyinvestor

Yeah I signed up for that futures market but I haven't actually invested. Frankly the polls are not showing much change so it doesn't really provide much of a chance for arbitrage.

Now in the 2008 CDN election, on the other hand, I quickly got in on some arbitrage as the Orange Wave lashed the polls. Made off with a sizeable percentage gain on my initial (well, only $25) investment.

NorthReport

Only 18 seats for the BC Liberals. Wow, this is a staggering forecast

http://www.straight.com/news/355916/bc-liberals-appear-be-doomed-upcomin...

theleftyinvestor

NorthReport wrote:

Only 18 seats for the BC Liberals. Wow, this is a staggering forecast

http://www.straight.com/news/355916/bc-liberals-appear-be-doomed-upcomin...

It would certainly make for a comical leadership review.

Sam Sullivan vs Rich Coleman for leader? Is anyone else on that list even close to leadership material by BC Liberal standards? Stephanie Cadieux is in cabinet but I have not heard great reviews about her performance. Mary Polak would be a joke - you may as well just merge them into the BC Conservatives if Polak runs for leader (flip back the history books and you will recall she was involved in the Surrey gay book banning case).

NorthReport

Previous election results for BC:

 

Year / N-Seats / N-% / L-Seats / L-% / I-Seats / I-% / SRC-Seats / SRC-% / G-Seats / G-% / Premier

2009 / 35 / 42.2% / 49 / 46% / 1 / 1.1% / 0 / 2.1% / / 0 / 8.2% / Liberal Campbell defeated NDP James

2005 / 33 / 41.5% / 46 / 45.8% / 0 / 1% / 0 / 1% / 0 / 9.2% / LiberalCampbell defeated NDP James

2001 / 2 / 21.6% / 77 / 57.6% / 0 / 1% / 0 / 1% / 0 / 12.4% / Liberal Campbell defeated NDP Dosanjh

1996 / 39 / 39.5% / 33 / 41.3% / 1 / 6% / 2 / 10% / 0 / 2% / NDP Glen Clark defeated Liberal Campbell

1991 / 51 / 40.7% / 17 / 33.3% / 0 / 1% / 7 / 24.2% / 0 / 1% / NDP Harcourt defeated Liberal Wilson

1986 / 22 / 46 / Socred Vander Zalm defeated NDP Skelly

1983 / 22 / 35 / Socred Bill Bennett defeated NDP Barrett

1979 / 26 / 31 / Socred Bill Bennett defeated NDP Barrett

1975 18 / 35 / Socred Bill Bennett defeated NDP Barrett

1972 / 38 / 10 /5 / NDP Barrett defeated Socred WAC Bennett

1969 Socred WAC Bennett defeated NDP Berger

1966 Socred WAC Bennett defeated NDP Strachan

1963 Socred WAC Bennett defeated NDP Strachan

1960 Socred WAC Bennett defeated CCF Strachan

1956 Socred WAC Bennett defeated CCF Strachan

1953 Socred WAC Bennett defeated CCF Webster

1952 Socred Hansell defeated CCF Winch (minority government)

1949 Lib/PC Coalition Leaders Johnson (Premier) & Anscomb defeated Winch, CCF

1945 Lib/PC Coalition Leaders Hart (Premier) & Conservative Maitland defeated CCF Winch

1941 Lib Pattullo defeated Cons Maitland  & CCF Winch and Libs & Cons formed Coalition gov't (Pattullo stepped down in protest, and Hart became Premier))

SRC denotes Socred, Reform or Cons

 

Polling:

Most recent polling was an Angus Reid poll of Feb 25/13 which seems like such a long time ago and it is in terms of BC politics.

 

Date / Pollster / NDP / Libs / Cons / Grn

Feb '13 / Angus Reid / 47% / 31% / 9% / 10%

Feb '13 / EKOS / 39% / 27% / 15% / 14%

Feb '13 / Justason / 48% / 22% / 12% / 11%

Feb '13 / Roundabout / 48% / 33% / 10% / 9%

NorthReport

Cowichan Conversations Genuine Unscientific Election Poll Results

http://richardhughes.ca/bc-provincial-politics/cowichan-conversations-ge...

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5975

NorthReport

BC NDP widen lead over BC Liberals

Ipsos-Reid

 

NDP - 51%, + 3%

Libs - 32%, - 3%

Cons - 9%, n/c

Grns - 7%, n/c

 

http://www.globaltvbc.com/exclusive+poll+bc+ndp+widen+lead+over+bc+liber...

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6038

NorthReport

Polling:

An Ipsos Reid poll was released today on Global TV's BC new All News Channel (thanks lefty investor) which shows that the NDP has increased its lead by another 6% over the Clark Liberals to 19%

 

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge /  Libs / L-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Grn / G-Cge / Oth / O-Cge

Mar '13 / Ipsos Reid / 51% / + 3% / 32% / - 3% / 9% / C- n/c / 7% / G- n/c / ?

Feb '13 / Angus Reid / 47% / 31% / 9% / 10%

Feb '13 / EKOS / 39% / 27% / 15% / 14%

Feb '13 / Justason / 48% / 22% / 12% / 11%

Feb '13 / Roundabout / 48% / 33% / 10% / 9%

Previous election results for BC:

Year / N-Seats / N-% / L-Seats / L-% / I-Seats / I-% / SRC-Seats / SRC-% / G-Seats / G-% / Premier

2009 / 35 / 42.2% / 49 / 46% / 1 / 1.1% / 0 / 2.1% / / 0 / 8.2% / Liberal Campbell defeated NDP James

2005 / 33 / 41.5% / 46 / 45.8% / 0 / 1% / 0 / 1% / 0 / 9.2% / LiberalCampbell defeated NDP James

2001 / 2 / 21.6% / 77 / 57.6% / 0 / 1% / 0 / 1% / 0 / 12.4% / Liberal Campbell defeated NDP Dosanjh

1996 / 39 / 39.5% / 33 / 41.3% / 1 / 6% / 2 / 10% / 0 / 2% / NDP Glen Clark defeated Liberal Campbell

1991 / 51 / 40.7% / 17 / 33.3% / 0 / 1% / 7 / 24.2% / 0 / 1% / NDP Harcourt defeated Liberal Wilson

1986 / 22 / 46 / Socred Vander Zalm defeated NDP Skelly

1983 / 22 / 35 / Socred Bill Bennett defeated NDP Barrett

1979 / 26 / 31 / Socred Bill Bennett defeated NDP Barrett

1975 18 / 35 / Socred Bill Bennett defeated NDP Barrett

1972 / 38 / 10 /5 / NDP Barrett defeated Socred WAC Bennett

1969 Socred WAC Bennett defeated NDP Berger

1966 Socred WAC Bennett defeated NDP Strachan

1963 Socred WAC Bennett defeated NDP Strachan

1960 Socred WAC Bennett defeated CCF Strachan

1956 Socred WAC Bennett defeated CCF Strachan

1953 Socred WAC Bennett defeated CCF Webster

1952 Socred Hansell defeated CCF Winch (minority government)

1949 Lib/PC Coalition Leaders Johnson (Premier) & Anscomb defeated Winch, CCF

1945 Lib/PC Coalition Leaders Hart (Premier) & Conservative Maitland defeated CCF Winch

1941 Lib Pattullo defeated Cons Maitland  & CCF Winch and Libs & Cons formed Coalition gov't (Pattullo stepped down in protest, and Hart became Premier))

SRC denotes Socred, Reform or Cons

 

 

 

NorthReport
theleftyinvestor

NorthReport - please, no need to quote all the data you wrote in a previous post when putting new information down.

Anyway - 51% is pretty damn exciting. That's unexplored territory for this party.

NorthReport

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