BC polls, thread #2

326 posts / 0 new
Last post
6079_Smith_W

Aristotleded24 wrote:

So why did the polls get this election so wrong?

The polls may not have been that far off.

Remember the last week of the federal election when Harper said he knew there was no way they'd get a majority? Believing lies like that, and being fooled by polls into not carrying through to the most important day of the campaign is part of what caused this result.

 

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

Yes, but what is Christy Clark's approval rating today? I'll wager low-30s.

JKR

Unionist wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

So why did the polls get this election so wrong?

Perhaps they forgot to ask: "Are you planning to vote?"

Don't get me wrong. I'm sure they're really really smart and all.

 

Good poInt. There's a huge difference between a poll of all adults and a poll of voters. It would seem that a lot of people who said they prefer the BC NDP did not vote for the party. The NDP received almost 48,000 less votes than the last election while the BC Liberals received almost 28,000 less than last time. So in a way the BC Liberals didn't win the election as much as they just lost less than the NDP.The race was not over who could win more but rather it was a race to see who could lose less. So much for FPTP democracy.

Question: How is it possible that the official voting participation rate went up in this election to 52% from 51% while the raw vote went down by almost 12,000 votes? Only 1.6 million people voted in this election out of a total population of 4.5 million. So how is it possible that the voter turnout was 52%? BC does not have that many people under the age of 18.

Brian Glennie

6079_Smith_W wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

So why did the polls get this election so wrong?

The polls may not have been that far off.

One of the last ones had the two parties within a statistical tie. The typical Liberal October surprise might have made a dent, too. Did the 8:01 campaign maybe make people feel sorry for the Premier?

The Leafs broke my heart on Monday and now this.

I agree with Hunky Monkey, its hard for the federal NDP to grow in BC unless the Liberals are in power there.

 

josh

The polls didn't weight by age?  That's incredible.  No wonder they were so screwed up.

 

 

http://www.theprovince.com/news/Smyth+Exclusive+look+internal+Liberal+po...

 

jerrym

The media that hire polling companies wanted done on the cheap so much of it was done by online surveys and robo-type calls rather than detailed telephone interviews. They also did not segregate the population by age and often other factors. 

Stockholm

IVR (robo-call) polls certainly weight by age if only bvecause they tend to get almost no one one under 30 responding!

NorthReport

You're probably correct Catchfire, however for basically the next 3 and 1/2 years or so, it doesn't really matter what the polls say about Christy Clark, and after such a polling debacle anyone who is polling poorly just has to say polls are for dogs. People will resonate with that.

Catchfire wrote:

Yes, but what is Christy Clark's approval rating today? I'll wager low-30s.

janfromthebruce

And she did lose her seat so she is still going to have to get one to speak in the legislature. Now where will she run and who will step down for her to run in her seat?

jerrym

janfromthebruce wrote:

And she did lose her seat so she is still going to have to get one to speak in the legislature. Now where will she run and who will step down for her to run in her seat?

Whoever it is you can be sure it will be a very safe Liberal seat with a great reward coming soon for whoever gives it up. 

bekayne

http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/2013/05/20/how-the-bc-ndp-blew-the-election

Lastly, the BC NDP disconcertingly switched polling firms during the campaign and didn’t conduct rolling polls in key swing ridings to pick up trends and adjust its campaign, as the BC Liberals did. The BC NDP, instead, relied on internal province-wide surveys.

jerrym

308 has some interesting observations on why the polls got the election results wrong. A large part of the reason was they weighted their polls based on the population of BC with regards to age rather than on past voting patterns by age group. 

Quote:

An earlier version of this post said that Ipsos-Reid's exit poll showed turnout by age. This is false - they weighted their exit poll from turnout in the 2009 B.C. election.
If we look at Ipsos-Reid's final poll of the campaign, we see that the three age groups they (and most other pollsters) use were more or less portioned out evenly. But when we see who actually voted in 2009 (and, conceivably, did so again in 2013), the problem with that sort of weighting is clear. Most significantly, voters 55 or older made up half of all voters, rather than one third.

If we compare Ipsos-Reid's final poll of the campaign to their exit poll, we see that the Liberals stole votes from the New Democrats in every age category.

But what struck me is how the results of the final poll from each age group were close to the exit poll's results in the older age group.

The 18-to-34-year-olds who voted had similar views to the 35-to-54-year-olds who were polled on the eve of the election, and the 35-to-54-year-olds who voted had similar views to the 55 and older respondents of the final poll. It would seem that people who vote are more like the broader, older population than those who do not. Anecdotally, that makes a lot of sense to me in a low turnout election.

So did the pollsters get the B.C. election wrong? Yes and no - they may have been in the ballpark when it came to the general population, but they failed to correct for the voting population. ...

A side note: Ipsos-Reid posts their weighted and unweighted sample sizes in all of their polls, which makes it possible to do this sort of analysis. Other pollsters absolutely must do the same. 

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

Ippurigakko

last Ekos polling after election day (May 16)

LIB 42%, NDP 38%, GRN 9%, CON 6%, IND 6%

and under 25 age going to Liberal 40%! what a joke?

NorthReport

2 years in, after after that last election disaster, the BC NDP are tied with the BC Liberals in the latest poll Global said tonite. 

NorthReport

BC NDP leading in the polls

NDP - 44%

Libs - 41%

Grns - 8% (same as 2013 election)

Cons - 7%

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6856

jerrym

The Ipsos poll is a glass half-empty, half full poll. The 3% NDP lead is statistically insignificant. Considering the fact that the NDP has only recently started to find its feet in Opposition, it may be able to improve its popularity. On the other hand, more believe the province is heading in the right direction than the wrong direction currently, except on Vancouver Island.

Probably the biggest task the NDP faces is the split between party members focusing on job growth through projects and those focusing on enviromental concerns.

A major infrastructure program could be used to not only provide increased public transit, housing, sewers (many of which are decrepit) etc. could be used to create more employment. 

The earlier federal BC poll showed that young people rank housing, poverty and homelessness as a top priority issue, which is hardly surprising considering housing prices here. The party, IMO, needs to focus on these, along with education (in addition to other issues that attracct other voters), if it is going to attract more of young voters to the polls.

Quote:

The NDP has a small, but statistically insignificant, lead of three points over the BC Liberals among decided voters. The NDP is currently at 44% support compared to 41% for the BC Liberals. This is essentially a reversal of the numbers from the last election that saw the BC Liberals edge out the NDP by a 44% to 40% margin in popular vote (i.e. NDP is up 4 points and BC Liberals are down 3 points). The Green Party is at 8% support (unchanged from 2013 election) and the BC Conservatives are at 7% support (up 2 points from 2013 election). These results exclude the 26% of British Columbians who are undecided or who express no party preference.

  • By region, the two main parties are tied in Metro Vancouver (44% each) and the BC Liberals have a small lead in the Southern Interior/North (43% to 39%). The NDP has a huge lead among decided voters on Vancouver Island (50% to 28%).
  • By gender, the NDP leads among women (46% to 38%) and the two parties are effectively tied among men (43% BC Lib vs. 42% NDP).
  • By age, the pattern is similar to before the previous election, with the NDP leading by a wide margin among younger voters (46% to 36% among 18-34 year olds). The BC Liberals, however, lead among older voters (47% to 41% among 55+ years), a segment that is more likely to actually turn out to vote.

Mood of Province

The good news for the BC Liberals is that the overall mood in the province is more right direction than wrong direction. Currently, 45% of residents say that things in British Columbia today are heading in the right direction, while 37% say things are on the wrong track. Nearly two-in-ten (19%) are unsure.

  • With the exception of Vancouver Island residents (38% right direction vs. 44% wrong track), right direction is higher than wrong track among all demographic segments.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6856

 

NorthReport

Now you know why after Liberals saying not gonna happen we have a foreign purchaser tax

But that jobs thingy keeps rearing its ugly head doesn't it

The new Massey Bridge project, Site C and all that jazz

Tell me again who is gonna win the election, eh!

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2016/05/17/What-Will-Define-BC-2017-Election/

NorthReport

!!!

mark_alfred

Quote:

A new Mainstreet Research poll, conducted for Postmedia News, found 38 per cent of decided and leaning voters in B.C. favour the provincial NDP — a five-point lead over the governing Liberals, who sit at 33 per cent. The B.C. Greens had 16 per cent support and the B.C. Conservatives 14 per cent.

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-ndp-lead-b-c-liberals-in-new-poll

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

If only the whole province and country had the political culture of Vancouver Island. What I hear from NDP voters in my part of the country is that they are too centrist but still better than any of the alternatives. 

BC NDP 48%

BC Liberals 23%

BC Greens 20%

BC Conservatives 20%

Aristotleded24

It seems as though people in BC are starting to tire of the top 2 options and are willing to look at alternatives. How else do you explain the relatively strong performance of the Greens and the Conservatives, the NDP down from its standing in the last provincial election, and 13 of 20 BC voters wanting a Premier other than the one they have now?

quizzical

Aristotleded24 wrote:
It seems as though people in BC are starting to tire of the top 2 options and are willing to look at alternatives. How else do you explain the relatively strong performance of the Greens and the Conservatives, the NDP down from its standing in the last provincial election, and 13 of 20 BC voters wanting a Premier other than the one they have now?

i'm no expert but my mom says it's because the BC liberal coalition with the BC conservatives is falling apart.

the LBGTQ vote in July pissed off a lot of "conservatives" and i heard our mla avoided the vote as to not piss off the conservative voters. how true it is i don't know.

and i don't think the NDP are down from the last election. i think they're up around 10% from what i can remember.

 

Aristotleded24

quizzical wrote:
and i don't think the NDP are down from the last election. i think they're up around 10% from what i can remember.

I was looking at the poll that mark posted upthread. That one in particular shows the NDP down slightly outside the MOE from where they finished in 2013.

quizzical

could you link to this post plz i don't see it.

Aristotleded24

It was a couple of posts up from mine. Here it is:

mark_alfred wrote:

Quote:

A new Mainstreet Research poll, conducted for Postmedia News, found 38 per cent of decided and leaning voters in B.C. favour the provincial NDP — a five-point lead over the governing Liberals, who sit at 33 per cent. The B.C. Greens had 16 per cent support and the B.C. Conservatives 14 per cent.

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-ndp-lead-b-c-liberals-in-new-poll

Pages