Alberta Polls

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bekayne

sherpa-finn wrote:

Something I did not know about Alberta politics: the President of the Alberta Liberal Party is Shelley Wark-Martyn, whom some might remember as an Ontario NDP MPP from the Bob Rae era. Presumably she shifted parties when she shifted provinces. Gotta wonder if she now rues that decision ....

She's running in Calgary

Robo

NorthReport wrote:

AB

PCs - 25%

WR - 31%

NDP - 26%

 

Calgary - which seats do the NDP have the best chance of winning here?

PCs - 27%

WR - 31%

NDP - 19%

 

Edmonton - how many seats in Edmonton?

PCs - 22%

WR - 21%

NDP - 42%

 

What about the Lethbridge area?

 

http://metronews.ca/news/calgary/1334947/alberta-election-wildrose-pcs-a...

 

In the 1986 and 1989 elections, the NDP won 2 (out of 18) seats in Calgary, 12 (out of 18) seats in Edmonton/St. Albert, and 2 (out of 47) seats in the remainder of the province. That's a good guesstimate to start predictions this time. (I agree with others who have been skeptical about this poll -- it may well be confirmed by other opinion polls, but it's the only one out so far and thus difficult to gauge against others.)

In Calgary, the best prospect to elect a New Democrat this time has to be Joe Ceci, who represented one of the 14 wards of Calgary City Council for many terms. He is running in Calgary Fort which lies entirely in the ward he represented (there are 25 provincial ridings in Calgary, almost double the number of wards).

The next two best prospects are likely to be Robyn Luff in Calgary East and Stephanie McLean in Calgary Varsity.

Shannon Phillips in Lethbridge West was one of the closest NDP losses in the last provincial election. She is running again, with a good prospect of success.

Edmonton/St.Albert now have 20 seats. I would guess 14 seats could be won by the NDP, given the current numbers.

Aristotleded24

Is it realistic to think that the NDP may beat its 1986 high-water mark?

Robo

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Is it realistic to think that the NDP may beat its 1986 high-water mark?

Is it realsitic to think that?  Yes.  Is it realistic to count on that while advertising has just started and no leaders debate has yet happened?  No way.  

jjuares

Robo wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Is it realistic to think that the NDP may beat its 1986 high-water mark?

Is it realsitic to think that?  Yes.  Is it realistic to count on that while advertising has just started and no leaders debate has yet happened?  No way.  


If the NDP continues to do well the PCs may come back with negative ads.

NorthReport

Thanks Robo

Pierre C yr
Centrist

After having gone through the same highs prior to (and through) the 2013 BC election, time to come down to earth a bit guys. While I am very leery of both IVR and opt-in online panel polls... these Google Surveys seem akin to something else altogether:

 

"GOOGLE SURVEYS USES A BAYESIAN, RIVER-SAMPLING METHODOLOGY"

 

Huh?!

 

"A NOTE ON SKEW AND POLLING METHODOLOGY: IT IS LIKELY THAT GOOGLE SURVEYS MAY HAVE SLIGHT LEFT SKEW IN ALBERTA."

Never read anything akin to that in an opinion poll in my entire life.

Winston

Wow indeed!

The regionals are even more shocking. Tied for the lead in Calgary (with the Tories a statistically insignificant 3 points back), and only 6 points behind Wildrose in the Rest of Alberta (with the Tories <20%!!!).

It's not exactly a scientific poll in any sense of the word, though. We'll have to see if it is corroborated by real pollsters later in the week.

Winston

Centrist wrote:

After having gone through the same highs prior to (and through) the 2013 BC election, time to come down to earth a bit guys. While I am very leery of both IVR and opt-in online panel polls... these Google Surveys seem akin to something else altogether:

"GOOGLE SURVEYS USES A BAYESIAN, RIVER-SAMPLING METHODOLOGY"

Huh?!

It's basically the same sort of techniques that online pollsters like Angus Reid Strategies use to "sample" respondents from among their self-selected pool. Like all online polling methodologies, it is not at all random. That said, these types of surveys may actually be more representative in in their sampling than IVR or live interview these days, given the diminishing ubiquity of landlines.

That said, I would take these results with a healthy truckload of salt.

Centrist wrote:

"A NOTE ON SKEW AND POLLING METHODOLOGY: IT IS LIKELY THAT GOOGLE SURVEYS MAY HAVE SLIGHT LEFT SKEW IN ALBERTA."

Never read anything akin to that in an opinion poll in my entire life.

...And perhaps you should. Universal landline use enabled pollsters to randomly select reasonably representative samples. Now, many people have only landlines, many have only cell phones, most have internet access, some have two of these and some have all three. Selecting a representative sample is all but impossible in this day.

Unless cord-cutters can be reasonably assumed to skew identically as their landline-using brethren, any sample you take is bound to skew.

Since I cut the cord about 3.5 years ago, I have NEVER been polled - for anything - neither about politics nor my favourite brand of adult diapers. When I had a landline, I was polled a few times a year.

Given that IVR polls generally only capture landline users who are apt to respond to an automatic recording, they likely skew older... and more conservative. Perhaps EKOS should be putting such disclaimers on their results too!

Brachina

 If nothing else this poll makes good propogranda for the NDP. And its not the same as the BC campaign, the dynamic is different and the rise in support is happen for more suddenly, creating momentum, its not going to be all dragged out and spent like what happened to Dix (amoung other things).

 

 Also remember Calagry voted in Nenshi as Mayor this is city that is Tory more by habit, tradition, expectations, and a demoralized left then for being the rightwing characture that people picture. Plus oil boom money warps peoples perceptions, they just got hit smack in the face by reality.

nicky

In the glare of the startling provincial poll numbers the parallel decline of the FEDERAL Conervatives in Alberta has gone relatively unnoticed.

In 2011 they got 67% in Alberta. Recent polling has them in the low 40s, a greater decline by far than in any other province.

For example, the lastest Ipsos: C41 L28 N21.

And the latest EKOS: C 40 L23 N22.

The Cons almost lost recent federal by-elections in Calgary Centre and Ft McMurray and suffered a significant vote loss in Yellowhead and, somewhat less, in Macleod.

These trends are perhaps also reflected in the election of left of centre mayors in Edmonton and Calgary.

There may be reason to hope that the long Conservative hegemony in Alberta is coming to an end.

bekayne

Centrist wrote:

After having gone through the same highs prior to (and through) the 2013 BC election, time to come down to earth a bit guys. While I am very leery of both IVR and opt-in online panel polls... these Google Surveys seem akin to something else altogether:

 

"GOOGLE SURVEYS USES A BAYESIAN, RIVER-SAMPLING METHODOLOGY"

 

Huh?!

 

"A NOTE ON SKEW AND POLLING METHODOLOGY: IT IS LIKELY THAT GOOGLE SURVEYS MAY HAVE SLIGHT LEFT SKEW IN ALBERTA."

Never read anything akin to that in an opinion poll in my entire life.

http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2015/04/1-alberta-votes-google-surveys-...

NorthReport
Brachina

 Your link lead to a bad gateway.

NorthReport

Works for me.

jerrym

I am jumping way ahead but what the hell - I'm going to jump, knowing that this scenario is still highly unlikely. However, so was the election of the Bob Rae NDP even after they started climbing in the early polls, or so it was perceived. Suppose by some miracle the NDP were to win. Remembering Bob Rae's sudden victory at the start of an economic downturn with a relatively inexperienced set of MPs, could this be a problem. As good as Notley could be (and she is IMO definitely no Rae in the positive sense of the word), she would have even a more inexperienced lineup facing an even more difficult scenario than the Ontario NDP in 1990. Having to deal with what is likely a major recession, she would have to make some tough decisions. 

I could see the PCs come back in the next election saying we ran Alberta so well (pure BS - all you have to do is compare their Heritage Fund with Norway's soverign wealth fund to see that), only to have the NDP run the province into the ground (most of the public in 4 years will have forgot that most if not all of the problems started under the PCs), would the NDP be better off becoming a strong Official Opposition and let the PCs (or Wildrose) be discredited by four tough years in power?

Aristotleded24

jerrym wrote:
would the NDP be better off becoming a strong Official Opposition and let the PCs (or Wildrose) be discredited by four tough years in power?

What will most likely happen in the event of an NDP surge is that the other parties pick up on it, attack the NDP as not being ready for exactly what you said, and their support may soften somewhat, while someone else becomes government. I agree that Official Opposition (or at least a much larger Caucus) with much more time to cut its teeth and then learn the ropes will be much better positioned to claim itself as a serious contender for government.

Besides, while Notley says that she's running for Premier, I suspect deep down she knows that that isn't realistically in the cards this time around, and that she is committed to building a strong team over the long haul.

Centrist

Aristotleded24 wrote:
What will most likely happen in the event of an NDP surge is that the other parties pick up on it, attack the NDP as not being ready for exactly what you said, and their support may soften somewhat, while someone else becomes government. 

That scenario ohhhh so reminds me of the BC 1991 election campaign - Socreds discredited, Harcourt NDP opposition previously winning 6 by-elections in a row (many never won by the BC NDP) and favourites to win. Then - the BC leadership campaign and the previously moribund BC Lib's under Gordon Wilson makes the quip paraphrased "See.. this is why nothing ever gets done in BC".

Top-rated BCTV NewsHour runs a daily tracking poll and sees a BC Lib surge. During last week of campaign, the then incarnation of the BC Libs actually takes top spot in terms of polling preference.

BC NDP heavyweight incumbent MLAs (Glen Clark, Moe Sihota etc al) witness internal polling confirming same thing and hold major press conference stating that nominated BC Lib MLAs "have no experience and not ready for any gov't". Major media coverage and dampens BC Lib momentum. 

BC NDP gains majority gov't in 1991 (with a 8% spread in popular vote share over BC Libs). Later, BC NDP stategists confide that had election lasted one week longer BC Libs would have won.

I realize that the foregoing is a different poli dynamic than what exists in AB today but my main point is in regards to your reference that other parties will paint the AB NDP as "not being ready" for gov't.

 

 

 

 

jjuares

Centrist wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:
What will most likely happen in the event of an NDP surge is that the other parties pick up on it, attack the NDP as not being ready for exactly what you said, and their support may soften somewhat, while someone else becomes government. 

That scenario ohhhh so reminds me of the BC 1991 election campaign - Socreds discredited, Harcourt NDP opposition previously winning 6 by-elections in a row (many never won by the BC NDP) and favourites to win. Then - the BC leadership campaign and the previously moribund BC Lib's under Gordon Wilson makes the quip paraphrased "See.. this is why nothing ever gets done in BC".

Top-rated BCTV NewsHour runs a daily tracking poll and sees a BC Lib surge. During last week of campaign, the then incarnation of the BC Libs actually takes top spot in terms of polling preference.

BC NDP heavyweight incumbent MLAs (Glen Clark, Moe Sihota etc al) witness internal polling confirming same thing and hold major press conference stating that nominated BC Lib MLAs "have no experience and not ready for any gov't". Major media coverage and dampens BC Lib momentum. 

BC NDP gains majority gov't in 1991 (with a 8% spread in popular vote share over BC Libs). Later, BC NDP stategists confide that had election lasted one week longer BC Libs would have won.

I realize that the foregoing is a different poli dynamic than what exists in AB today but my main point is in regards to your reference that other parties will paint the AB NDP as "not being ready" for gov't.

 

 

 

 


Yes, and don't forget that the PCs will have the money to run an aggressive negative air war. Last election they were able to stop the WR they will certainly try with the NDP. I hope that the NDP has prepared itself for the onslaught.

Aristotleded24

jjuares wrote:
I hope that the NDP has prepared itself for the onslaught.

I hope the NDP has also prepared itself for the possibility of a Wildrose surge.

jjuares

Aristotleded24 wrote:

jjuares wrote:
I hope that the NDP has prepared itself for the onslaught.

I hope the NDP has also prepared itself for the possibility of a Wildrose surge.


Yeah, no one knows anything about their leader. So the question will be if he is a plus or minus to their campaign.

jjuares

Aristotleded24 wrote:

jjuares wrote:
I hope that the NDP has prepared itself for the onslaught.

I hope the NDP has also prepared itself for the possibility of a Wildrose surge.


Yeah, no one knows anything about their leader. So the question will be if he is a plus or minus to their campaign.

jjuares

Aristotleded24 wrote:

jjuares wrote:
I hope that the NDP has prepared itself for the onslaught.

I hope the NDP has also prepared itself for the possibility of a Wildrose surge.


Yeah, no one knows anything about their leader. So the question will be if he is a plus or minus to their campaign.

PrairieDemocrat15

Centrist wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:
What will most likely happen in the event of an NDP surge is that the other parties pick up on it, attack the NDP as not being ready for exactly what you said, and their support may soften somewhat, while someone else becomes government. 

That scenario ohhhh so reminds me of the BC 1991 election campaign - Socreds discredited, Harcourt NDP opposition previously winning 6 by-elections in a row (many never won by the BC NDP) and favourites to win. Then - the BC leadership campaign and the previously moribund BC Lib's under Gordon Wilson makes the quip paraphrased "See.. this is why nothing ever gets done in BC".

Top-rated BCTV NewsHour runs a daily tracking poll and sees a BC Lib surge. During last week of campaign, the then incarnation of the BC Libs actually takes top spot in terms of polling preference.

BC NDP heavyweight incumbent MLAs (Glen Clark, Moe Sihota etc al) witness internal polling confirming same thing and hold major press conference stating that nominated BC Lib MLAs "have no experience and not ready for any gov't". Major media coverage and dampens BC Lib momentum. 

BC NDP gains majority gov't in 1991 (with a 8% spread in popular vote share over BC Libs). Later, BC NDP stategists confide that had election lasted one week longer BC Libs would have won.

I realize that the foregoing is a different poli dynamic than what exists in AB today but my main point is in regards to your reference that other parties will paint the AB NDP as "not being ready" for gov't.

Is this story publicknowledge? I've heard it before but never seen it in journalistic or academic literature (not saying that I doubt it's veracity).

Anyways, in BC, the NDP had been in government before and was a strong opposition for a long time. There is no party like that in Alberta. Swan, at the beginning of this campaign, tried ot argue that the Liberals were the only "experienced alternative," but I'm not sure how many Liberals from the Arthur Sifton era are left!

PrairieDemocrat15

jjuares wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

jjuares wrote:
I hope that the NDP has prepared itself for the onslaught.

I hope the NDP has also prepared itself for the possibility of a Wildrose surge.

Yeah, no one knows anything about their leader. So the question will be if he is a plus or minus to their campaign.

True, except for the fact that he dontated $10,000 to Jim Prentice's leadership campaign.

With that, the floor crossings, and a defeated Tory candidate in Red Deer running for the Wildrose, I think the NDP would be smart to paint the Wildrose as PCs in green. Maybe ask Jean why he gave ten grand (money most Albertans wouldn't dream of spending on a whim) to Prentice and why he is accepting failed PC nominees into his party. Were you hedging your bets, Brian? Is the Wildrose the PC Party's farm team?

Brachina

 Your link works now NR, must have been a temporary issue.

Winston

It looks like that google survey from a dew days back has been corroborated by a real pollster:

WRA / NDP / PC

AB 31 / 30 / 24

Cgy 29 / 25 / 27

Edm 10 / 51 / 21

ROA 39 / 26 / 23

 

From Calgary Herald today (Mainstreet)

 

Sean in Ottawa

I suspect that the Alberta NDP would have good advice and the capacity to reach out to experience.

The would have to start with a budget statement. That was Bob Rae's first big mistake -- going directly to a budget.

You first have to show clearly where you are. Then there has to be a public provincial discussion about alternatives -- a brief one-- with the NDP in the lead of that over some of the policy options and then the NDP should act. Then you must communicate every step including the situation, options considered and choices made.

A Mulcair-led national NDP government would have to do the same.

This is how to bring your people along to change.

What you don't do is make a pile of changes and try to sell them after the fact while the opposition works against you through the process.

NorthReport

What a shame after exploiting those massive tarsand resources for more than 25 years now, the PCs have not protected the people's interests and put money away for a rainy day. Norway has a brilliant future, Albertans not so much. How fucking stupid can you be!

Poll finds PCs trail opponents on health care, taxes and education.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/poll+finds+trail+opponents+...

NorthReport

How does Premier Rachel Notley sound to you?

Just kidding but.........

WR - 24%

NDP - 23%

PC - 18%

New poll sees PCs drop below NDP

http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/new-poll-sees-pcs-drop-below-ndp-1.2328068

David Young

Did I see correctly that the NDP has 51% support in Edmonton?

Will Blakeman's seat be in play now, I wonder!!!

 

Centrist

Just saw this tweet.. haven't yet located the article:

Quote:
Keith Baldrey ‏@keithbaldrey

Interesting to see pollsters in Alberta walk away from their polls. Check out Globe and Mail story on this today. #abpoli

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

A poll I am watching on the CBC now has the Alberta PCs in third! Rural seems to be going Wildrose, the NDP is doing well in Edmonton, and Calgary seems to be up for grabs.

This bodes well for the federal NDP...

jjuares

montrealer58 wrote:

A poll I am watching on the CBC now has the Alberta PCs in third! Rural seems to be going Wildrose, the NDP is doing well in Edmonton, and Calgary seems to be up for grabs.

This bodes well for the federal NDP...


There are ridings here in Edmonton where it is difficult to find anything but a NDP lawn sign.

Aristotleded24

[url=http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/bratt-are-the-polls-real-just-wat...'t watch polls, watch how parties react:[/url]

Quote:
My new stock answer is that I will start to believe the polls are real if the political parties change their campaign strategy. That would show that the parties’ own internal polling data was revealing the same figures as the public polls. So have the parties changed their campaign strategy after about two weeks of the 2015 election?

...

If the NDP really believed that they had a chance at governing, then Notley would be travelling the province. This would mean not only spending more time in Calgary, but also in rural Alberta (where about 1/3 of the ridings are). Driving Highway 2 between Calgary and Edmonton does not count as rural campaigning.

Meanwhile, the Wildrose Party would focus on rural Alberta and bedroom communities such as Okotoks, Airdrie, Sherwood Park, and Leduc. Again, if Wildrose really believed the polls, we would be seeing Brian Jean in the heart of Edmonton and Calgary a lot more (where about 2/3 of the ridings are).

I also felt that the PCs would run a province-wide campaign and try to situate themselves in the ideological middle between the NDP (who want more spending on health and education and would tax more to get it) and the Wildrose (who want to rollback the tax/fee increases announced in the March 26 budget, eliminate deficit/debt, and cut government spending). So far, that is exactly what the PCs have been doing.

But on Friday, the PCs did something unprecedented in previous Alberta election campaigns. They held a press conference with six senior ministers (Stephen Mandel, Ric McIver, Robin Campbell, Manmeet Bhullar, Diana McQueen, and Frank Oberle) to criticize in very strong language the Wildrose Party’s fiscal platform.

 

Stockholm

I suspect that you are going to see Rachel Notley spending a lot more time outside of Edmonton in the coming days: Medicine Hat, Peace River, Fort Mac, Calgary (naturally), Banff

NorthReport
Pierre C yr

Again wow. WR crashing? Undecided vote was high last time I cant see it here... tho some say undecided also means non voter in typically low voter turnout in Alberta Provincial elections...

 

http://1abvote.ca/poll-ndp-lead-voter-intentions-squeeze-play-volatility...

 

Aristotleded24

Possibility of a PC comeback?

Realistically, I'd much prefer the NDP become the Official Opposition and give themselves time to cut their teeth, assemble a credible front bench etc, than to win outright and have a steep learning curve with all but 4 of their Caucus and crashing again next go around.

Winston

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Realistically, I'd much prefer the NDP become the Official Opposition and give themselves time to cut their teeth, assemble a credible front bench etc, than to win outright and have a steep learning curve with all but 4 of their Caucus and crashing again next go around.

We tried that... in 1986. It didn't turn out all that well. Now is the best opportunity for change that Alberta has seen in 44 years. Let's Make it Happen! (To borrow the 1986 slogan).

NorthReport

What's happening to the Liberals in Alberta appears to be a mirror image of what happened to the Liberals federally in 2011.

NorthReport

The reason that the NDP appears to be doing so well in Alberta is now that we are into the election the media has no choice but to report is on what they should have been reporting on for some time now. 

Aristotleded24

In any case, I think realistically the NDP have topped out and will probably fall back a bit. I think the PCs and Wildrose will be able to raise doubts about the spending priorities of the NDP, and people will take a second look and maybe hesitate to hand over the keys to a party with that few seats this time around. OTOH, the strong showing in Edmonton City likely puts a very solid floor under the party's popular support that is a good launching platform for next time.

nicky

NDP ahead in two riding polls including one in Calgary:

 

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/poll-suggests-former-alderman-cou...

Sean in Ottawa

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Possibility of a PC comeback?

Realistically, I'd much prefer the NDP become the Official Opposition and give themselves time to cut their teeth, assemble a credible front bench etc, than to win outright and have a steep learning curve with all but 4 of their Caucus and crashing again next go around.

Realistically I don't think you should run unless you want to win. The NDP has the resources to get good advice if they want to listen to it.

For the first time in power I hope it is a majority as a minority can be an unpredictable problem.

All that said -- dowe really believe this poll? I am hearing lower numbers from other pollsters.

No matter what happens no way I look at this other than as good news.

Marco C

I hope it's a real poll.

 

However 1ABvote is a partisan group pushing for progresive parties so take it with a grain on salt.

bekayne
NorthReport

Party / Apr 7 / Apr 13 / Apr 20 / Change

WR / 31% / 31% / 35% / Up 4%

NDP / 26% / 30% / 31% / Up 5%

PC / 27% / 24% / 25% / Down 2%

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2015

 

Brachina

 NDP is close to what 1abvote predicted, PCs aren't far off as well, but Wildrose is 15% higher then 1abvote had them. 

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