Predictions for Alberta Election Tuesday, April 16, 2019

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NorthReport
Predictions for Alberta Election Tuesday, April 16, 2019

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JKR

CBC News Alberta Votes 2019 Poll Tracker

Quote:

Saturday April 13

UCP: 64 seats

NDP: 22 

Alberta: 1

Liberal: 0

 

Probability of winning:

Probability of the United Conservative Party winning the most seats: >99%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats: <1%

Jason Kenney's United Conservatives are holding their lead over Rachel Notley's New Democrats, who have made gains but are still trailing by a significant margin. The UCP is on track to secure a majority government. Neither the Alberta Party nor the Liberals have moved the dial much in their favour.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

It would not surprise me to see an Alberta Party/Liberal merger after the votes are in.  As it is, they are essentially the same party with two different names.  And it wouldn't be the first time the Liberals allowed a provincial branch to die out in the name of some perceived larger objective.

JKR

I think a very good case could be made that the left in Canada would be better off if the federal and provincial branches of the NDP weren’t linked together under one brand. I think the Alberta NDP government was hobbled by its link to the federal NDP and to the other provincial NDP “branches” and I think the other “branches” of the NDP have lately been weakened by being linked to the Alberta NDP. I think nowadays political parties benefit from being seen by the public as being independent entities loyal only to their specific jurisdiction. The right in Canada seems to have benefitted from being able to freely brand and re-brand themselves at both the federal and provincial levels. I think the federal NDP and provincial NDP’s should split up and come up with eleven new organizations and brands best suited to winning elections in their respective jurisdictions. 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Good idea JKR, but that would be 12 new brand names. Yukon is not a consensus based legislature like the other two territories.

The problem is the party establishment will never give up their little empires without a bitter fight.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

JKR wrote:

I think a very good case could be made that the left in Canada would be better off if the federal and provincial branches of the NDP weren’t linked together under one brand. I think the Alberta NDP government was hobbled by its link to the federal NDP and to the other provincial NDP “branches” and I think the other “branches” of the NDP have lately been weakened by being linked to the Alberta NDP. I think nowadays political parties benefit from being seen by the public as being independent entities loyal only to their specific jurisdiction. The right in Canada seems to have benefitted from being able to freely brand and re-brand themselves at both the federal and provincial levels. I think the federal NDP and provincial NDP should split up and come up with eleven new brands best suited to winning elections in their respective jurisdictions. 

Agreed.  And it looks increasingly as though the main reason people are required to be both federal and provincial NDP members is to prevent people who want to be in the federal NDP to be part of organizing left-wing alternatives to those provincial NDP sections that always respond to disappointing election results by moving further and further and further to the right while at the same time restricting the rights of rank-and-file provincial NDP members to work against the perpetual rightward trend.

Were the joint membership requirement not in place, there would almost certainly be an electorally strong party whose positions on most issues comparable to QS in virtually every province.  

bekayne

JKR wrote:

CBC News Alberta Votes 2019 Poll Tracker

Quote:

Saturday April 13

UCP: 64 seats

NDP: 22 

Green: 1

Liberal: 0

 

Probability of winning:

Probability of the United Conservative Party winning the most seats: >99%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats: <1%

Jason Kenney's United Conservatives are holding their lead over Rachel Notley's New Democrats, who have made gains but are still trailing by a significant margin. The UCP is on track to secure a majority government. Neither the Alberta Party nor the Liberals have moved the dial much in their favour.

Alberta Party , not Green

JKR

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Good idea JKR, but that would be 12 new brand names. Yukon is not a consensus based legislature like the other two territories.

The problem is the party establishment will never give up their little empires without a bitter fight.

I think losing so many elections over so many years should concentrate the mind of the NDP party establishment(s).

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

As to the actual subject of the thread, here's my prediction-seat count, not popular vote:
 

UCP 50

NDP 35

Alberta Party 2

I also thing there's a reasonable chance the Freedom Conservatives will take enough votes UCP to hold the UCP below 50% in the popular vote.

JKR

bekayne wrote:

JKR wrote:

CBC News Alberta Votes 2019 Poll Tracker

Quote:

Saturday April 13

UCP: 64 seats

NDP: 22 

Green: 1

Liberal: 0

 

Probability of winning:

Probability of the United Conservative Party winning the most seats: >99%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats: <1%

Jason Kenney's United Conservatives are holding their lead over Rachel Notley's New Democrats, who have made gains but are still trailing by a significant margin. The UCP is on track to secure a majority government. Neither the Alberta Party nor the Liberals have moved the dial much in their favour.

Alberta Party , not Green

Thanks and fixed.

Aristotleded24

I predict that the winning party in the next Alberta election will be beligirent and hostile to its neighbours in promoting oil pipelines, and will lobby to have them built at all costs.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The only way the NDP has of squeaking out a win is if the average Calgary conservative voter is disgusted with the UCP and turnout goes to a record low 40% like in 2008 and all the Liberals in Calgary vote for Trudeau's BFF. They just might pull a rabbit out of a hat if the planets align just right.

The above is not a prediction merely a best case scenario out of the mostly dismal potentials.

Unionist

I predict that the bad guys will win.

JKR

Quote:

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That's how it goes
Everybody knows

robbie_dee

While I still think Kenney is going to win I think any possible Notley victory would include an unexpected surge in support for third parties that drags the Conservatives back down into the low to mid 40s where the NDP's ceiling likely is as well. I could imagine a result something like this:

NDP 44
UCP 39
Alberta 3
Freedom 1

Maybe there is a Liberal in there somewhere as well.

WWWTT

Looks like one of the servants of corporate imperialism, the “polls” are doing the job they were intended to do, influence the vote!

Just a couple weeks ago, posters here (as myself) were optimistic that  Notle had a strong chance winning. Mainstreet poll apparently even had one that was suggesting just that. But nope, corporate imperialism can’t have any of that!

 

JKR

UCP: 64

NDP: 22

Alberta: 1

DistinguishedFlyer

There's always the possibility of an upset due to strong NDP turnout overwhelming unenthusiastic Tories, but I doubt that will actually happen; I do, however think they'll do a little (and I mean a little) better than the polls suggest.

Final prediction:

Tories 56 (48%)

NDP 30 (40%)

AP 1 (9%)

The NDP's vote is at least on track to be pretty close to their 2015 figure, which is an achievement of sorts. I don't know if engaging in the slinging-match with the Tories was the best idea - stuff like that is Jason Kenney's forte - but maybe there was no good option for them.

I think that the person in the country who'll be happiest about a Kenney victory - even more, maybe than Kenney himself - is the Prime Minister. Now he'll have two provincial bogeymen that he can invoke constantly in September/October instead of just one. Not to mention that a surprise NDP victory here would have seen the federal party get at least a temporary lift in support (and therefore eat into his own voters), just like they did back in spring 2015.