Greg Kerr, Harper's man in Annapolis, is in trouble. He's relatively old (born 1947) and out of touch with the electorate, as evidenced by his former party the provincial PCs wipeout on June 9, 2009. Despite the huge shift to the NDP, turnout was a record low, suggesting that turnout is the key to saving any Conservative in Nova Scotia.
However, despite the NDP orange tide the Liberals, the real threat to Kerr, increased their vote. Provincial Liberal leader McNeil handily won his seat in Annapolis provincially - and would and should argue to federal Liberals that they stand more chance here of regaining a seat they've recently held (under Robert Thibault) than wasting resources on South Shore - St. Margaret's (where the NDP hold the provincial seats and came within 1000 votes of unseating Keddy last time) or Central Nova (where a fading Conservative presence, rising NDP and focused Elizabeth May campaign is going to put the Liberals in third place at best). So they'll target Greg Kerr.
NDP provincial and federal focus is obviously far better focused on the South Shore to consolidate the provincial seats that gave them their majority and could be a new fortress for them outside Halifax and Sydney, their first secure rural base in NS. If they strategically fade in Annapolis for a while, Liberals are sure to retake the seat, and then Harper will become desperate to save Kerr. So what will he and MacKay pull? He's already flailing to save Keddy with questionable funding allocations.
It may be a harder sell. Unlike Keddy, Kerr is so out-of-touch as to describe his forestry interests as "logging", and Kerr is far more strongly associated with the discredited NS PCs, who are so disorganized they will likely provide him no effective support whatsoever in 2009's almost inevitable federal election. Keep close watch on Kerr and slush-fund ACOA projects in this riding, and report what you find in this thread.