NB Election -Take Two

113 posts / 0 new
Last post
Caissa
NB Election -Take Two

The majority of New Brunswickers are dissatisfied with the performance of the governing Liberal party, but that hasn't translated into more people planning to vote for the Progressive Conservatives, according to a new poll.

Dissatisfaction with Premier Shawn Graham's Liberal party grew to 55 per cent in February - up from 51 per cent - in the latest quarterly poll by Corporate Research Associates.

At the same time, popular support for the Progressive Conservatives dropped to 42 per cent from 46 per cent in November, the poll suggests.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/03/09/nb-poll-liberals-dissatisfied.html#ixzz0hh0wjYBl

NorthReport

There is one political party that has risen in the polls. Laughing

Policywonk

I noticed that. Even when Elizabeth Weir was an MLA I don't remember the party getting much more than 10%.

Caissa

Duguay may win his seat this time. I'm not expecting any other seats unless there are some star candidates who could win regardless of the party. I'll be shocked if the NDP poll more than 12% on election day. If Alward can get his act together, this could be a polarizing election with 2 clear alternatives. He has about 3 months to do this. NBers ignore politics in the months of July and August and will begin to realize an election is coming up right after Labour Day.

Caissa

 

The Opposition Conservatives are raising questions about Premier Shawn Graham's links to the Atcon Group and whether he was in a conflict of interest position last June when cabinet approved $50 million in loan guarantees for the financially troubled company.

The premier's brother once worked for Atcon, which is now in receivership.

And Graham's father sat on the board of an Atcon subsidiary, Vanerply, in Sweden.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/03/11/nb-graham-ties-to-atcon.html#ixzz0hsXpzNHQ

NorthReport

With the election of the first ever NDP government in Atlantic Canada, things could well change in NB for their next election. The NB NDP is presently polling at 18% and they might get even more support than that on election day.  The key is for the NB NDP supporters is to get out every day between now and election day and fight for every single vote you can get. Be creative. People who live in the past die of remorse.

Caissa

New Brunswick's auditor general is warning the province's financial position is not sustainable because of the series of massive deficits racked up in the previous two years.

Auditor General Mike Ferguson released his annual report Thursday and part of it took aim at the sustainability of the province's books.

Ferguson said sustainability was measured by the province's ability to pay for its services without adding to the debt. The New Brunswick government added $438.6 million in its net debt last year.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/03/11/nb-auditor-general-report-102.html#ixzz0htoGwu5I

NorthReport

 

 

It looks like the Liberals are dead in the water here with the Premier's ratings in the toilet. It will soon be time to flush. If people don't want a Conservative government, if New Brunswickers want a new government with some fresh ideas, NB voters should consider voting in an NDP provincial government. It's overdue.

Premiers Poll puts Danny Williams on top, Sean Graham in the basement

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/bureau-blog/premiers-poll-puts-dann...

Caissa

The one thing to keep in my mind is NB has not had a one term government since Confederation.

NorthReport

The latest seat projections for NB - it looks like the Liberals will be decimated in the next election.

Party / 2006 election / 2010 election

PC - 26 / 36

Lib - 29 / 17

NDP - 0 /2

mtm

Where did you get that seat projection from NR?

 

Just curious.

NorthReport

mtm,

 

Sorry, I should have posted the link

 

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/newbrunswick/

NorthReport

Aw shucks, the media are treating us bad. Welcome to the club Shawn.  Laughing

 

New Brunswick Premier Shawn Graham accuses media of unfair scrutiny

NDP Leader Roger Duguay said "it's sad" to hear the comments of the premier about the media.

"For the last three and a half years with this government we have a head of this province who is desperate and now he's trying to shoot everywhere because they don't have the favour of the public," Duguay said.

 

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5jVW8n5kfadG...

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

NorthReport wrote:

The latest seat projections for NB - it looks like the Liberals will be decimated in the next election.

Party / 2006 election / 2010 election

PC - 26 / 36

Lib - 29 / 17

NDP - 0 /2

Actually, if that was accurate, they'd be worse than decimated...given that the word "decimated" means "reduced in strength by one-tenth".  Taken literally in this case, the Liberals would be "decimated" if their seat count was reduced from 29 seats to 26.1 seats

A loss of twelve seats, as the projection you cite predicts, would leave them "quadragimated".

NorthReport

dec·i·mate

 (ds-mt) tr.v. dec·i·mat·ed, dec·i·mat·ing, dec·i·mates 1. To destroy or kill a large part of (a group). 2. Usage Problem a. To inflict great destruction or damage on: The fawns decimated my rose bushes. b. To reduce markedly in amount: a profligate heir who decimated his trust fund. 3. To select by lot and kill one in every ten of.

Whatever!

It does though seem like there is a new government on its way here on September 27th, of this year.

Caissa

Ken B.'s definition is true to the original meaning and etymology.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Besides, it sounds much cooler to say "they got totally quadragimated last night!".

NorthReport

It is just not looking good for Shawn. Is it too late for him to step down before the election?

 

 

NB Power protesters mass at legislature

 

 

 

 

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/03/20/nb-nbpower-prote...

 

John J

Duguay should do well. He's actually raising the profile of the party - and not just himself. If he can find some good candidates he should do well.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

NorthReport wrote:

It is just not looking good for Shawn. Is it too late for him to step down before the election?

 

If he did, do the NB Libs have anybody who has "ride in and save the day" potential for them?  Seems like their only chance would be to put in a new leader who broke with the tight-budget "Third Way" thing and tacked to the left(or at least appeared to) to cut into the NDP vote.  They need, in short, a provincial version of the 1968 incarnation of Trudeau.  Does anybody in that party fit the bill?

Caissa

Dare I say Kelly Lamrock might represent the Left of the party?

In other news

New Brunswick politicians will soon be struggling with how they can leverage social media as a new way of reaching out to voters in the upcoming provincial election, says a social media analyst.

Chris Ramsey's prediction comes on the heels of a new Ipsos Reid poll that shows Canadians are now spending more time in front of computer screens than television sets.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/03/23/nb-social-media-provincial-election.html#ixzz0j1Eqt5W1

NorthReport

Seems like the Graham Liberals in NB have inherited the Ignatieff Liberals disasterous political strategy.

 

New Brunswick kills controversial power deal with Hydro-Québec

 

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/new-brunswick-kills-co...

Caissa

Maybe Shawn can quietly close down the LA until the election in September...

Might actually get re-elected.

NorthReport

Hardly likely.

 

NB Power deal: Now what?

Quote:
But this deal worried other Atlantic provinces by appearing to give Hydro-Quebec a lock on transmis­sion that could deter development of Newfoundland hydro and Nova Scotia tidal and wind power. And Mr. Graham angered New Brunswickers by hand­ing most of the power rate benefits to industrial customers instead of letting the utility board share the savings equitably. In being bold, Mr. Graham forgot to be fair, while remembering too well the bad political habit of meddling in power rates.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Editorial/9015822.html

mtm

Candidate nomination update:

Confirmed

Saint John East:  PC's nominate former councillor Glen Tait
Bathurst:  NDP nominate Sebastien Duke (Boilermakers Union)
Fredericton Nashwaak (Lamrock's riding): PC's nominate Pam Lynch (formerly president of Fred Board of Trade)

Seeking nomination:

Saint John Harbour: PC's have both John Campbell and current Councillor Carl Killen in the running with a contested nomination on the cards
Saint John East:  Current Councillor and Mayor's brother Bruce Court is vying for the Liberal nod

Rumoured

Saint John Harbour:  Current councillor Chris Titus is strongly rumoured to be in the running

Do you see a common thread in Saint John?  It seems like half of council will be running.

Caissa

Tait vs. Court will be interesting. Despite being outspoken, or mamybe because of it, Court is seen as being a strong advocate for his ward.

I think Doherty will hold on to his riding. Despite the PSE report debacle, Ed is generally well-liked and Killen has never even belonged to the PC party. Titus is too much of a loose cannon to be credible and has a non-existant relationship with the local media.

I watched some of Comedy Council the other night and kept asking myself who elected these individuals. Unfortunately, three of the clowns got my vote.

Caissa

On the Federal level:

John Williamson is leaving his post as Prime Minister Stephen Harper's director of communications in the hopes of running in the next federal election.

Williamson, who served as the PMO's communications director for eight months, will return to New Brunswick to seek the nomination in the riding of New Brunswick Southwest, which is being vacated by the retiring Greg Thompson.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/03/31/nb-williamson-harper-election-145.html#ixzz0jmYCBmvO

Stockholm

"Do you see a common thread in Saint John?  It seems like half of council will be running."

 

I guess there's no one from the NDP on Saint John city council?

mtm

Bill Farren, councillor from the west side is an NDP'er.  He ran in 1999 provincially but nobody has said his name this time.

 

Also Caissa, I wouldn't discount Sandy Harding from the Saint John East race.  She has a lot of support from CUPE and is well liked.  Which can't be said for Glen Tait (he has a lot of enemies), and even though Bruce Court is a fiery advocate, he really isn't cut out to be an MLA and I think most folks would admit that.

Caissa

Bill Farren is an awful bloody conservative New Democratic based on his Council performance.

Yes, Saint John East will be a three way race. When has not being "cut out to be an MLA" ever been an impediment in NB politics?

mtm

I suppose...we're talking about a legislature that includes Abel Leblanc.

Caissa

You letting the other 54 off the hook? Wink

mtm

http://telegraphjournal.canadaeast.com/search/article/1003424

 

Snook may run for NDP

Donnie Snook, a Saint John city councillor, says the NDP has asked him to run in September's provincial election in the Saint John Harbour riding. "Right now, it's fair to say I haven't made a decision because I enjoy working on council," he said. "But having said that, if people are engaging you and wanting to have conversations with you about the issues for the area and if they're having that conversation with you, you take that into consideration." Snook said he also hasn't ruled out seeking the Conservative nomination, because that party has asked him to run as well. "I haven't been seeking them out," Snook said of the parties. Coun. Carl Killen and John Campbell have already said they will seek Conservative nomination in Saint John Harbour.

Stockholm

Come on Donnie - get on the elevator on the ground floor and ride it up. The NDP in NB is currently a very undervalued stocki - buy now!!

Caissa

They ran the story April 1. I'm sure hoping it's an April Fools Joke. Donnie used to be a Salvation Arny officer and I don't think he has renounced any of the SA's more homophobic views.

Stockholm

The leader of the NB NDP used to be a Catholic priest. Does anyone know if he has renounced any of the Catholic churches more homophobic views? I don't see why a Salvation Army member should be held to any higher a standard than a Catholic?

mtm

 

Caissa wrote:

Donnie Snook...used to work for the Salvation Army

 

Stockholm wrote:

The leader of the NB NDP used to be a Catholic priest

stmsr

I don't see how any of this is relevant to the upcoming election. "used to be" says everything. 

Caissa

Duguay's position on progressive issues are clear as party leader. Snook's positions have yet to be clarified, imho.

mtm

Yeah, definitely.

So far though, Snook has only said he's thinking about seeking the nomination.  It would be a bit cart before the horse at the present stage, would it not?

Caissa

The Party may not want him, though he could make an interesting three way race with Doherty and killen.

mtm

So Stuart Jamieson has announced he's leaving politics for good and will not re-offer as a Liberal, Independent or Green, despite last week stating he may.

That leaves SJ Fundy wiiiiiiiiide open.

mtm

Well, it didn't stay wide open for long.

The Liberal candidate for SJ Fundy is the well-liked Principal of Simonds High School, Gary Keating.  Everything I've heard about this guy is good, so if the Libs lose the seat it will be a reflection on Graham and the party.  As for the PC's, Jim Huttges, the Mayor of St. Martins is seeking the nod.

Meanwhile in Quispamsis, local small business owner Matt Doherty has announced he's seeking the nomination there:
http://nbndp.ca/node/218.  He is very well known in the community and is a spectacular candidate.  Definitely one to say what he thinks too.  Of course, I'm biased because I know him quite well.

Caissa

Councillor Chris Titus is rumoured to seeking the PC nomination in Saint John Lancaster while Councillor Donnie Snook is still contemplating seeking the NDP nod in Saint John Harbour. Counillor Carl Killen is seeking the PC nod in Saint John Harbour. Councillor Bruce Court wants to seek the nod in Saint John East.

That's one way to cleanup Council.

Caissa

This paragraph from an email letter I received from Roger Duguay is a bit disconcerting.

 

Duguay writes:This scandal shows how much we need to elect NDP MLAs to bring the voice of the middle class back to the Legislature. 

Later he continues: The NDP is under new management. We are better organized than ever before, and more New Brunswickers support us now than ever before. We are ready to bring the voice of middle class New Brunswickers back to the Legislature.

 

Caissa wonders when the NB NDP became the voice of the middle class?

Caissa

Given the current state of politics in NB, the NDP would do better to brace a class analysis than portraying itself as another part of the status quo. It needs to work to get voters to cast their franchise in their class intersests rather than for parties whose policies support the ruling class.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

It's probably tied into this idea that all working-class people insist on thinking of themselves as "middle class" and as having a stake in preserving most of the existing order, and that the NDP can't be seen solely as the party of those left out under the prevailing arrangements.  Why the NDP would still be buying into what are essentially Blairist concepts in a year in which we're about to see Blairism wiped off the electoral map in its country of origin is a bonafide mystery.

Does the NDP really have anything to gain by pretending that most people are "winners" under the status quo(which is what you have to believe to buy into the "we're a middle class party meme)?

Stockholm

"Middle class" is just the new word for working class. as was pointed out virtually everyone describes themselves as "middle class". People tend to think that the the "upper class" consists of the McCains and Irvings and Conrad Black and the "lower class" are people in homeless shelters and lying in gutters and everyone else (ie: 95% of the population) is middle class.

I don't think the NDP in NB ought to go around saying to people "you may like to think you're middle class - but you're NOT. You are POOR!"

mtm

I fail to see how using language that appeals to a broad range of prospective voters is 'disconcerting'.  It is after all the point of political parties to appeal to the population - something the NDP in NB was extremely slow to get.

To attempt to represent fairness for the 'middle class' expands upon the already well-established base of support that the NDP has received in NB (you know, that hard-core five percent!), and mirrors what Jack Layton has been doing.

This campaign is one about fairness.  People know what the NDP are and where they stand on issues of poverty - however one must realize that it is about branching out and showing people that it is about a lot more.  It is about treating everyone fairly, not just advocating for certain groups.

Instead of focusing on the language, I think it is critical to see what that email was about - the payouts the MLA's gave themselves, and the point of fairness that it raises.  The fact is, the NDP wouldn't let that happen if we had only one seat, as it needed to be unanimous.

 

 

PS if labour "obliteration" is 30%, the NB NDP will take it, because we only get five.  In 2006 we were a fringe party lets not forget.  You're comparing Apples with, well, not oranges...more like tiny grapes.

 

Caissa wrote:

Given the current state of politics in NB, the NDP would do better to brace a class analysis than portraying itself as another part of the status quo. It needs to work to get voters to cast their franchise in their class intersests rather than for parties whose policies support the ruling class.

 

Yes, start a class war.  Just what the TJ wants to paint us as Trotskyist communists rather than a pragmatic, responsible alternative. 

You play to your crowd. We need to break from divisive, class-based politics and show that our principles, our philosophies, and the things that make us proud New Democrats are the things that most New Brunswickers of modest means believe anyway.  Using divisive language and painting ourselves as leftists locks us in at our historical 5-10% and does NB no service.  We have to show that we haven't changed our principles one bit - but that "we want what you want."

mtm

Correcto.  Its not a classist language, its a category that most people can self-identify with with less baggage than "working class", which screams organized labour.

The point is to show that, without changing our principles and guiding philosophies, and better promotion of NDP policies, we CAN represent the average New Brunswicker.  That is what we have to do to break the 5-10% quagmire.

Caissa

Good to see the NB NDP is just another bourgeois, parliamentary party.

The word "citizens"  or "New Brunswickers" could have been used instead of "middle class.' The use of the term was intentional since it was used twice.

If you think being Blairite New Labourites is going to get you better coverage in the TJ then you must be living in a different province from the one I am.

Pages