NDP sweep to massive majority government in Nova Scotia

87 posts / 0 new
Last post
alisea

Oh, sheesh, I hadn't realized there was a pro- and anti- incumbents' lobby going on here, and frankly, the "claws" remark is a tad offensive. I'm not trying to stake any claims for anyone -- and as a long-time NS NDP activist I have come to have absolute trust in Darrell's judgement, both political and practical. We have *31* remarkable people to choose from. They could probably all do a better job than most Cabinet ministers NS has ever seen; it's an embarrassment of riches.

That being said, IF I were in his shoes, which I would emphasize I am decidedly not, then experience in the House would count for something -- as would the need for my new people to lock down those seats. Note that 2 of the Tories who survived the sweep were the only 2 Tories who had not been in MacDonald's cabinets, but who had paid a huge amount of attention to their constituencies. Lots of Tories who had been Cabinet ministers since 03 or 06 were swept away.

moriarty

Yah, I double thought the claws comment as well, but it seemed somehow appropriate.  Regrets.  I'll trust Darrell's judgement as well, however, if he goes with only his incumbents because of their experience in the house (which anyone can gain from paying attention and watching the legislature on tv--and as far as committee work experience, that can be gained anywhere) he'll have 10 new angry folks.

 

The reality of regional representation would, no doubt, be graciously accepted by any incumbents.  Surely a key incumbent member would gladly step aside to have the first ever MLA from CN  be represented in the cabinet.

Wilf Day

Female representation in legislature inches upward

Quote:
In the 2006 provincial election, a then-record nine women were elected for a gender representation of 17 per cent. After Tuesday’s results, that number jumps to 23 per cent, slightly more than than the record 22.4 per cent (69 MPs) in the House of Commons.

Maureen MacDonald calls it “making slow progress.”

“I wish it was a little bit more because I still think we’re considerably underrepresented,” MacDonald said yesterday. “But we’re making progress and heading in the right direction. We’ll just have to keep working at it.”

“I’ve learned some lessons in my time in politics, and I learned women don’t come to the political arena easily,” MacDonald said. “Generally speaking, women have a lot of uncertainty about whether or not they have the kind of skills that will not only give them success, but staying power. It is seen as a blood sport and you have to get the elbows up and there are many women who don’t want to participate in that way.”

She also said women can be timid in campaigning, which she found several times helping other female NDP candidates get elected.

“(Women) never think they know enough to be a candidate,” she said. “They think they have to have the answer for everything, where the male candidates are much more confident and are more prepared to wing it. Some people would say (they) B.S. their way through. That’s very interesting.”

Pennywise

I knew I should have been more specific.  I know Dan O'Conner is Daryl's Chief of Staff - what is his background?  How did he get there?

Fidel

Quote:
Some people would say (they) B.S. their way through. That's very interesting."

 

I think my local MPP bs'd his way into Queen's Park, for sure for sure. And I know when he's bs'ing, which is whenever his lips move.

Peter3

Pennywise wrote:

I know Dan O'Conner is Daryl's Chief of Staff - what is his background?  How did he get there?

Dan has been an NDP partisan since Moses parted the water.  I believe he's been with the Nova Scotia party in one capacity or another for over 20 years.

Peter3

A Dan O'Connor bio from the CBC Nova Scotia Votes 2003 site.

Hunky_Monkey

Jaihu wrote:
Yes... Lets convince Dexter to break his promise of a small cabinet of 12!!! Let's convince Dexter to break all of his promises so that in 4 or 5 years we can put this unforunate error behind us and go back to one of the real governing parties:-)

You still bitter that Trevor Zinck beat Jim Smith by 24 points? 

 

Pennywise

Peter3 wrote:

A Dan O'Connor bio from the CBC Nova Scotia Votes 2003 site.

adma

Hunky_Monkey wrote:
You still bitter that Trevor Zinck beat Jim Smith by 24 points? 

Though strategically speaking, I can see where Smith can be a threat to Zinck next time, should Dexter turn out to be a one-term wonder, at least as a majority proposition.  Especially with the official-opposition ball now in the Liberal court.

But, it's no thanks to Jaihu.

David Young

Here's how the voting results break down according to the 11 federal ridings in Nova Scotia:

CAPE BRETON-CANSO (Cape Breton West, Glace Bay, Inverness, Richmond, Victoria-The Lakes, 50% Guysborough-Sheet Harbour)

               2009       2008 (FEDERAL)

LIB         13456     17447

PC          14571      8524

NDP        12588      7660

GREEN        790      2641

CENTRAL NOVA (Antigonish, Pictou Centre, Pictou East, Pictou West, 50% Guysborough-Sheet Harbour)

               2009       2008 (FEDERAL)

LIB          5844             -

PC         11457      18240

NDP       17919        7659

GREEN       686      12620

CUMBERLAND-COLCHESTER-MUSQUODOBOIT VALLEY (Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, Colchester North, Cumberland North, Cumberland South, Truro-Bible Hill)

              2009        2008 (FEDERAL)

LIB          5821       3344

PC         14254       3493

NDP       14880       4874

GREEN       714         550

IND.        2164      27303

DARTMOUTH-COLE HARBOUR (Cole Harbour, Dartmouth East, Dartmouth North, Dartmouth South-Portland Valley)

               2009       2008 (FEDERAL)

LIB         10859      16016

PC           3760        9109

NDP        19387      12793

GREEN        898        2417

HALIFAX (Halifax-Atlantic, Halifax-Chebucto, Halifax-Citadel-Sable Island, Halifax-Fairview, Halifax-Needham)

               2009        2008 (FEDERAL)

LIB         10300      12458

PC           3866        9295

NDP        23476      19252

GREEN      1656        3931

HALIFAX WEST (Bedford-Birch Cove, Halifax-Clayton Park, Hammonds Plains-Upper Sackville, Timberlea-Prospect)

              2009       2008 (FEDERAL)

LIB        13868     17129

PC          6334       8708

NDP       24799     12201

GREEN     1137       2920

KINGS-HANTS (Hants East, Hants West, Kings North, Kings South)

            2009       2008 (FEDERAL)

LIB        8743      16641

PC       10727        9846

NDP     16026        8291

GREEN   1173        2353

SACKVILLE-EASTERN SHORE (Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage, Eastern Shore, Preston, Sackville-Cobequid, Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank)

             2008       2009 (FEDERAL)

LIB       10427       5018

PC          7503      8198

NDP      19472     24279

GREEN      865       2034

SOUTH SHORE-ST. MARGARET'S (Chester-St. Margaret's, Lunenburg, Lunenburg West, Queens, Shelburne)

            2009       2008 (FEDERAL)

LIB        7639       9536

PC       11419     14388

NDP     19935     13456

GREEN     793       2090

SOUTHWEST NOVA (Annapolis, Argyle, Clare, Digby-Annapolis, Kings West, Yarmouth)

            2009       2008 (FEDERAL)

LIB      20331     15185

PC       11298     16779

NDP       7380       7097

GREEN     689       2114

SYDNEY-VICTORIA (Cape Breton Centre, Cape Breton North, Cape Breton Nova, Cape Breton South, Victoria-The Lakes)

            2009      2008 (FEDERAL)

LIB        9432     17353

PC         8064      7224

NDP      18316     8563

GREEN      611     1941

It's interesting to see the radical change in voting patterns in just 9 months.

Will they effect the results of the next Federal Election?

Stay tuned!

Stockholm

YOu have Victoria-the Lakes listed in Cape Breton-Canso and Sydney-Victoria and I think it is entirely in the latter.

David Young

Whoops!

I guess I was a little distracted watching Pittsburgh (Cole Harbour must have the magic touch this week!) defeat Detroit for the Stanley Cup, and I added Victoria-The Lakes twice!

Here's the amended figures for CAPE BRETON-CANSO:

             2009        2008 (FEDERAL)

LIB       11544      17447

PC        12154       8524

NDP      10908       7660

GREEN      647       2641

Thanks for spotting my goof, Stockholm!

Stay tuned!

robbie_dee

If those results were reproduced on the federal level, the NDP would win 9 seats in NS. The Libs and Cons would win one each, but interestingly it wouldn't be the same ones they hold now, the Libs would win West Nova (currently a Con seat) and the Cons would win Cape Breton Canso (currently Lib). I'd certainly take it if we could get it! On another note, there may be a federal byelection even sooner where we could put this experiment to the test, see this thread: [url=http://www.rabble.ca/babble/introductions/cumberland-colchester-musquodo... Valley Federal Byelection[/url].

David Young

My point in putting these stats here is to point out that there may have been a fundamental change in Nova Scotia voting patterns thanks to the June 9th Provincial Election.

Stay tuned!

Marritimarr Marritimarr's picture

It's a "false" majority government, not "massive".  Implications of false majority government for NS electoral reform discussed over in

http://rabble.ca/babble/atlantic-provinces/another-false-majority-govern...

 

The results were surprising, everyone including me expected minority NDP win but the majority seems to have been caused by:

- exceptionally low turnout - NDP semling victory were far more able to turn out their machine and supporters than anyone else

- PCs foolishly sticking to their attack-ad campaign to the end, and not actually campaigning on their record on energy conservation, expanding rural broadband, etc. - sadly for Rodney most of these will not become obvious to the public until the fall;  when also the Halifax sewage plant might be working

- surprise collapse of the PCs on the South Shore, notably Vickie Conrad's 2-to-1 win over Cary Morash which no one had expected

- strong personal campaigning by South Shore NDPers including Pam Birdsall who returned every single phone call that she ever got

- older people who were lifetime PCs voting NDP, possibly because Dexter was the most known quantity, longest-sitting leader, etc.

Four seats is not "massive", that's no more than the South Shore has.  NDP losing this region in 2013/14 would lose their majority.  But that's another thread on fortress South Shore?  http://rabble.ca/babble/atlantic-provinces/ndp-ns-south-shore-sweep-why-...

Also because there are now far too many "election" and "election results" threads discussing all the post-election issues together in a tangle, I created some other more topical threads - please repost the relevant observations above in those rather than spreading it into many badly-named threads, for the benefit of anyone who is just coming into this discussion now, and doesn't read all threads

first NDP-NS cabinet  http://rabble.ca/babble/atlantic-provinces/first-ndp-ns-cabinet-whos-who...

whither Gerald Keddy  http://rabble.ca/babble/atlantic-provinces/gerald-keddy-watch-what-will-...

wiither Greg Kerr http://rabble.ca/babble/atlantic-provinces/greg-kerr-watch-what-will-har...

remind remind's picture

Too many election threads you say? You just started 4 or 5 today yourself ffs, that will end up being devoid of content because the content already exists in discussions in other threads, like this, one already open.

And what in the hell are you talking about 4 seats? Are you suffering from memory loss, or delusion, there is a 10 seat spread.

Marritimarr Marritimarr's picture

Quote:

Too many election threads you say? You just started 4 or 5 today yourself ffs, that will end up being devoid of content because the content already exists in discussions in other threads, like this, one already open.

Look up the word "refactor".  What will kill the substantive topics (rewarding noise-makers like yourself with nothing to add to any of them) is having posts about the Nova Scotia cabinet, say, in half a dozen different places, rather than all concentrated in one thread.

Quote:

And what in the hell are you talking about 4 seats? Are you suffering from memory loss, or delusion, there is a 10 seat spread.

A majority government in a 52-seat legislature is 26 seats, 27 if you want a friendly Speaker and full control of the legislature and invulnerability to a single rogue MLA crossing the floor.  NDP-NS have 31.  31 minus 27 is 4.  My math stands.

Your feeble attempts at personal invective are becoming offensive.  Cease to post, please, unless you are either from Nova Scotia or have something substantive to say.

remind remind's picture

Sealed

Reporting you, again

Marritimarr Marritimarr's picture

Let the moderators make a decision about who is doing their best to actually get some viable threads going that would interest real Nova Scotians, and who is just making noise or trying to control things.  If they make the wrong decision, you're welcome to the mess that will result.

KenS

Marritimarr wrote:
Cease to post, please, unless you are either from Nova Scotia or have something substantive to say.

Imperious twit.

Not your call bud.

Marritimarr Marritimarr's picture

Asking politely to cease to make noise and stick to the topic is a completely fair request.

You'd do it yourself in a town hall meeting where those who wanted to discuss the topics at hand, perhaps each in their own quiet circle (thread) were being drowned out by noise-making children who seem to have nothing whatsoever to add to any of the topics at hand.

We know whose call it is, and an honest assessment of the substance vs. noise in each thread should result in a similar request to mine going to remind, not to post unless he has something substantive to say or is somehow affected by the Nova Scotia situation.

 

Marritimarr Marritimarr's picture

As for the refactoring, there are now many threads all with names that give no indication at all of where one might find the cabinet discussion, implications for specific federal MP races (there aren't too many to discuss individually, that's what election prediction projects do, isn't it?), or regions that have recently undergone significant political shifts.  I created a few that would actually guide a new reader to the right discussion and not fill up with noise too fast as this and the other threads all seem to.

Babble could use a wiki, something like http://dkosopedia.com, for more persistent dossiers to be built up on specific topics, so useful facts and positions don't just die with the thread.

oldgoat

Marritimarr, please take note of my response in the other thread.

Hunky_Monkey

adma wrote:
Especially with the official-opposition ball now in the Liberal court.

Just wanted to point out that although McNeil and the Liberals are the offical opposition, that really doesn't say a lot.

In 2006, it was widely regarded as a disasterous election for the Liberals.  This time, they got 2 more seats and less than 4% increase in popular vote.  This under a change election and a very unpopular Tory government. 

The Liberals are ONE seat ahead of the Tories.  And the Liberals edged out the Tories in popular vote but not even 3%.

The Tories pick a half decent leader to replace MacDonald and they're very much still in the game considering their history in this province.  I would venture to guess that if Dexter does well, you'll see the opposition coalesce around the Tories and not the Liberals.

David Young

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

The Tories pick a half decent leader to replace MacDonald and they're very much still in the game considering their history in this province.  I would venture to guess that if Dexter does well, you'll see the opposition coalesce around the Tories and not the Liberals.

Something else just occured to me about the election of this NDP government.

If memory serves, there will be a census in 2011.  After the 2001 census, one Cape Breton seat (Cape Breton-The Lakes) was eliminated (mostly absorbed into Victoria-The Lakes) and an additional seat was added to the Halifax Metro Area.  If population trends continue (rural decreases - urban increases), it stands to reason that either Cape Breton or mainland Nova Scotia (or both!) could lose ridings, so new suburban ridings could be created either west of Halifax or east of Dartmouth (or both!).

Would the 3 Kings ridings have to be merged into 2?  It happened in 1993 when 3 Cumberland seats were reconfigured into 2, giving Halifax another riding that time.  Would Cape Breton South be divided amongst the four surrounded ridings?

More Halifax Metro seats gives the NDP an increased chance at hanging onto government next time, if this happens.

Stay tuned.

 

KenS

Kings, Hants and Colchester counties grow a bit. Less than HRM, but enough that seats lost come out of the rest of the province with declining poulation. Some of the Hants and Kings ridings are already among the very largest in population.

And I don't think Cape Breton lost a whole seat in 2001.

KenS

I think the PCs are so wounded that they will have a hard time getting good candidates for the leadership. Because of that and a majortiy government, they are going to take their time.

I think the jockeying between the two opposition parties will be pretty low key for a couple years. The Liberals just don't have the organizational depth to dominate the other opposition party like the NDP did to them from about 2001. I think they'll get the lions share of attention, but not dominate... at least for that first couple years.

NorthReport

There is nothing, absolutely nothing, worse in politics than a sore loser.

There is now a reasonable chance with they way the PCs screwed up the province, that the PCs may never ever take power again in Nova Scotia. Fuck, can you believe it, they did not even make it to official opposition.  The pathetic Liberals even beat them out. The PCs are toast, if not forever in Nova Scotia, for a very long time to come.

And not only are you a disgruntled loser, but the party your support is obviously a huge loser. You can attempt to twist around the Nova Scotia election results, or for that matter, any other election results, any which way you want, but the results speak for themselves,

On June 9, 2009, Nova Scotians elected the New Democratic Party government and Darrell Dexter their premier. The NDP win had historical significance. Not only did it bring to an end ten years of rule by the Progressive Conservative Party, but was also the first time an NDP premier had been elected in Atlantic Canada. The 2009 election campaign was dominated by economic and financial issues as the province attempts to deal with the global economic slowdown, rising unemployment, and possible government deficits.

Is it not fucking obvious by now, right wingers are hopeless at managing the economy, and that the only reason whingers are involved in politics at all, is about one thing, and about one thing only, and that is who gets the next government contract.

 

Nova Scotia 2009 election results

 

NDP - 31 seats, up an incredible 11 seats, or a phenominal 55% increase in seats

 

Libs - 11 seats (20, read every those lips, 20 seats behind the NDP, up a pathetic 2 seats)

 

Cons - 10 seats (21, again read those lips, 21 seats behind the NDP, down 13 seats, or down a disasterous 57% in number of seats)

What part of this massive change in Nova Scotia do you not get! Laughing 

NDP 

Marritimarr wrote:

Quote:

Too many election threads you say? You just started 4 or 5 today yourself ffs, that will end up being devoid of content because the content already exists in discussions in other threads, like this, one already open.

Look up the word "refactor".  What will kill the substantive topics (rewarding noise-makers like yourself with nothing to add to any of them) is having posts about the Nova Scotia cabinet, say, in half a dozen different places, rather than all concentrated in one thread.

Quote:

And what in the hell are you talking about 4 seats? Are you suffering from memory loss, or delusion, there is a 10 seat spread.

A majority government in a 52-seat legislature is 26 seats, 27 if you want a friendly Speaker and full control of the legislature and invulnerability to a single rogue MLA crossing the floor.  NDP-NS have 31.  31 minus 27 is 4.  My math stands.

Your feeble attempts at personal invective are becoming offensive.  Cease to post, please, unless you are either from Nova Scotia or have something substantive to say.

Hunky_Monkey

NorthReport wrote:
There is nothing, absolutely nothing, worse in politics than a sore loser.

There is now a reasonable chance with they way the PCs screwed up the province, that the PCs may never ever take power again in Nova Scotia. Fuck, can you believe it, they did not even make it to official opposition.  The pathetic Liberals even beat them out. The PCs are toast, if not forever in Nova Scotia, for a very long time to come.

I hope you're not talking about me... I assume you're talking to Marritimarr.  I've been a New Democrat for 19 years lol.  But I am able to step back a bit and look at the big picture.

North Report... the Tories actually won less seats in 1993 than they did in 2009.  Also, they were in third place in the 1998 election... before going from third place to a majority government in 1999.

My point stands.  The Tories are still a force in Nova Scotia and will continue to be.

ghoris

One of the reasons I always find Nova Scotia politics so interesting to watch is because it's the only jurisdiction in Canada that has a true three-party system.

NorthReport

But not for the next four years.

 

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

NorthReport wrote:
There is nothing, absolutely nothing, worse in politics than a sore loser.

There is now a reasonable chance with they way the PCs screwed up the province, that the PCs may never ever take power again in Nova Scotia. Fuck, can you believe it, they did not even make it to official opposition.  The pathetic Liberals even beat them out. The PCs are toast, if not forever in Nova Scotia, for a very long time to come.

I hope you're not talking about me... I assume you're talking to Marritimarr.  I've been a New Democrat for 19 years lol.  But I am able to step back a bit and look at the big picture.

North Report... the Tories actually won less seats in 1993 than they did in 2009.  Also, they were in third place in the 1998 election... before going from third place to a majority government in 1999.

My point stands.  The Tories are still a force in Nova Scotia and will continue to be.

Hunky_Monkey

NorthReport wrote:
But not for the next four years.

Depends.  I can certainly see them bounce into offical opposition.  And if we screw up, then all bets are off.

ghoris

Quote:
 But not for the next four years.

How do you figure? The Tories still got 25% of the vote and basically tied with the Liberals - that's nothing to sneeze at. A few more votes the other way in a couple of seats and they would be the Official Opposition and the Grits would be in third. The PCs are basically in the same place Hamm was after the 1998 election - and then went on to form a majority government a year later.

My point was that any of the three parties could legitimately contend for government next time and Nova Scotia is really the only province where that is the case.

adma

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

NorthReport wrote:
There is nothing, absolutely nothing, worse in politics than a sore loser.

There is now a reasonable chance with they way the PCs screwed up the province, that the PCs may never ever take power again in Nova Scotia. Fuck, can you believe it, they did not even make it to official opposition.  The pathetic Liberals even beat them out. The PCs are toast, if not forever in Nova Scotia, for a very long time to come.

I hope you're not talking about me... I assume you're talking to Marritimarr. 

Either that, or Jaihu.

NorthReport

Fage faces second lawsuit

Mr. Fage, driving a taxpayer-owned car, left the scene without leaving contact information. He was convicted in December 2007 of leaving the scene of an accident with intent to escape civil or criminal liability.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Front/9014265.html

Pages