NL Politics Pot-Pourri, Newfoundland Labrador elections

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Stockholm
NL Politics Pot-Pourri, Newfoundland Labrador elections

Looks like the NDP is gaining ground in Newfoundland too. Should be interesting to see if Lorraine Michael can become opposition leader in the election this fall.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2011/06/07/nl-...

Issues Pages: 
Caissa

Thanks for starting this thread, Stockholm. I like to see Atlantic canada receiving coverage on Babble.

Third Way

The New Democrats in Newfoundland and Labrador have a legit chance of forming the Official Opposition in October but we still have much work to do. At the moment we have more money then the Liberals and in my opinion are better organized going into the election, but as it still stands in many parts of the island the Liberals are still seen as the alternative. We still only have 8 candidates in place 97 days before the election and for some reason instead of strategically looking at putting someone like Keith Dunne, a potential successor to Lorraine Michael, in a more winnable riding we put him up against possibly the toughest PC candidate to beat. I have heard positive things about the other candidates though.

Lorraine Michael isn't a great leader and hopefully she won't be on much longer, we need someone young and charasmatic. If we had a better leader I think we'd definitly be out-polling the Liberal Party, I won't be surprised if in the next set of polling, which likely won't be till August, we are done dramatically again.

Hopefully the party will look at bringing in a less socialist platform this election, and a much more professional one. The NDP have only been a fringe party over years and looking at our last platform proves it. It was unprofessional and lacked detail. The next platform needs to focus on a larger picture instead of jsut some goals they want accomplished.

I hope the platform will focus on things like the economy, affordable living and the environment. I'd love for the party to be bold and put more of a focus on the St. John's Metro Area. The platform should talk about regional planning, infrastructure, public transit, cleaner neighbourhoods. An affordable housing strategy in the platform is needed to, focusing specifically on St. John's and Labrador West. The NPD seem to always avoid the economy but they can't much longer, the only information in their last platform on the economy was when they talked about all the tax increases they wanted to bring in on doctors, out of province companies and people who buy jewlery.

I'd like to see the NDP bring in a policy whereby they would eliminate the small business tax over several years while at the same time increasing the minimum wage. So every July 1st for example the small business tax would be reduced and the minimum wage would increase, till the small business tax was eliminated.

The NDP need to take some more moderate approaches to issues and try and squeeze out the Liberal Party.

Anonymouse

Are you saying this idly Third Way, or do you have some interest in getting your hands dirty and making it happen?

Third Way

Anonymouse wrote:

Are you saying this idly Third Way, or do you have some interest in getting your hands dirty and making it happen?

What?

newshound

Quote:
Lorraine Michael isn't a great leader and hopefully she won't be on much longer, we need someone young and charasmatic. If we had a better leader I think we'd definitly be out-polling the Liberal Party, I won't be surprised if in the next set of polling, which likely won't be till August, we are done dramatically again.

Agreed.

Quote:
Hopefully the party will look at bringing in a less socialist platform this election, and a much more professional one. The NDP have only been a fringe party over years and looking at our last platform proves it. It was unprofessional and lacked detail. The next platform needs to focus on a larger picture instead of jsut some goals they want accomplished.

Become more like the other 2 parties you mean?
Why not keep the social aspect? You can hardly tell the difference between the political parties as it is.

NH

Aristotleded24

How is Michaels in particular a bad leader? The NDP in Newfoundland and Labrador has never been particularly strong, even under Jack Harris, and doesn't quite have the resources to campaign that other parties do. What can Lorraine specifically do to get around that?

Remember that the Liberals also have 4 seats, so it's not a tall order to replace them. The NDP will also have the organization of Jack Harris and Ryan Cleary to help them out this time, which they've never been able to rely on the help of federal MPs before.

Stockholm

Interesting things seem to be happening in Newfoundland. The NDP there has been steadily nominating candidates all summer and are now up to 20 (out of 44 I believe) and reading the bios - almost all appear to be very impressive activists with roots in their communities. Meanwhile, the Liberals have barely nominated anyone yet, AND it was just announced that the Liberal leader Yvonne Jones will announce tomorrow that she is quitting - just eight weeks before election day!

Apparently Premier Dunderdale is already being nicknamed "blunderdale" - so I actually would not be at all surprised if the NDP picks up a few seats and becomes the official opposition - there is now a HUGE vacuum in Newfoundland politics.

Caissa

The leader of the Liberal Party in Newfoundland and Labrador will announce her resignation Tuesday, CBC News has learned
Jones has been fighting breast cancer for more than a year. Sources say the cancer and the treatment have weakened her immune system http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2011/08/08/nl-jones-to-announce-resignation.html

Caissa

Liberal Party veteran Danny Dumaresque has announced his intention to run for the Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal Party leadership.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2011/08/10/nl-...

Stockholm

There was some specualtion that General Rick Hilliard would run for the NL Liberal leadership but that has been scotched - now the closest thing the Liberals have to a saviour is defeated federal Liberal Siobhan Coady - who may be more interested in running for LPC president. In the next 72 hours they will pick a fire hydrant of some sort to be their new leader.

Meanwhile I noticed an interesting new addition to the NDP list of candidates: Kurtis Coombs, who came within THREE votes of being elected mayor of Paradise NL two years ago when he was just 19, is running in Mount Pearl North

http://www.nl.ndp.ca/nr081111CoombsMPN?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium...

Caissa

Newfoundland and Labrador's former auditor general said Tuesday he hopes to play a part in the government he used to investigate.

"I intend to seek the PC nomination in the district of Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi," John Noseworthy said on his Twitter feed.

If chosen, Noseworthy will face off against NDP Leader Lorraine Michael, who has held the St. John's seat since a 2006 byelection.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2011/08/16/nl-...

Caissa

The president of Newfoundland and Labrador's Liberal party is rejecting John Noseworthy's claim that the former auditor general was offered the party's leadership earlier this month.

Noseworthy, who announced his intentions Tuesday to seek the Progressive Conservative nomination in a St. John's district, is standing by a provocative claim that the Liberal leadership had been offered to him outright, but he declined.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2011/08/17/nl-...

Anonymouse

Go NFLD NDP Go!

Anonymouse

Does anyone know what is going on with the NDP in PEI? They had a promising finish in Charlottetown in the last federal election and I saw that James Rodd (party leader) was unanimously reaffirmed as NDP leader after he requested an extraordinary leadership review. Also, Robert Chisholm was supposed to attend that review but couldn't due to the Canada Post filibuster. Will he return to the island to rally the troops? How about Jack Harris? Alexa McDonough? I think the NDP could be on the edge of a renaissance in Atlantic Canada if the party pays enough attention to what is going on there.

Punditsguide reports that in the last federal election, the standings in Atlantic Canada were:

1) Conservative 37.9%

2) NDP 29.5% 

3) Liberals 29.3%

and the NDP finished second in NB (first time ever), NS, and NFLD!

Newfoundlander_...

Lorraine Michael will be in a tough battle to win her seat now that John Noseworthy is running against her. This election is probably the first one that the party will have access to enough money to run a full province-wide campaign, and it will be interesting to see if Michael takes advantage of that or if she is more concerned with holding onto her own seat.

Stockholm

ummm...didn't this Noseworthy character kind of crash on the launching pad when he arrogantly announced that the Liberals offered him the leadership of their party but that he turned it down - and then all the Liberals said he was a liar and he got a wave of ridiculae and bad press. He will lose and get some juicy sinecure as a reward for running in an unwinnable seat.

Newfoundlander_...

Stockholm wrote:

ummm...didn't this Noseworthy character kind of crash on the launching pad when he arrogantly announced that the Liberals offered him the leadership of their party but that he turned it down - and then all the Liberals said he was a liar and he got a wave of ridiculae and bad press. He will lose and get some juicy sinecure as a reward for running in an unwinnable seat.

No he never because everyone believes him and not the Liberals. What the Liberals said was that the executive never offered him the leadership, while John Noseworthy said that he met with Yvonne Jones who told him she would step down the following day and he could take over from there. I never saw any bad press on him.

Stockholm

Even if the guy isn't lying (and we will never know who is telling the truth because he didn't secretly record his private conversation with Yvonne Jones) what kind of an arrogant, indiscreet braggart exposes private conversations in an effort to self-aggrandize? "the Liberals think I am so great, theyngot on their hands and knees and begged me to lead them and I said NO" yeccch -who wants to vote for such a creepy person.

Newfoundlander_...

His name was being rumoured as a possible candidate and he came out and said he would not seek the leadership of the Liberals. When he announced his candidacy for the PCs he was asked about the Liberal leadership and he said that he met with Yvonne Jones and Kelvin Parsons and they offered him the leadership. Both Jones and Parsosns would not speak to reporters when they were contacted.

Stockholm

btw...the leadership of a party is not anyone's to "offer". I assume the Newfoundland Liberal Party has some sort of a constitution and process for choosing a leader in an emergency situation (one that they used last week). It would be very presumptuous for anyone in that party that assume that they could just unilaterally crown someone leader just like that without any approval by anyone.

Newfoundlander_...

There was likely a communication problem there, but they knew that if John Noseworthy ran he wouldn't lose.

dacckon dacckon's picture

http://www.nl.ndp.ca/ndpcandidates

Awesome candidates running in Nfld. local politicans, small buisness owners, activists for workers, consumer advocates, etc

Newfoundlander_...

The NDP have their most impressive bunch of candidates ever. Usually they're just names on a ballot, like the NDP in Quebec, but this time they have serious candidates. It will be interesting to see if they can actually make gains.

Newfoundlander_...

 

NDP Leader says Party would cut small business tax by 25 per cent

NDP Leader says Party would cut small business tax by 25 per cent Lorraine Michael, leader of the New Democratic Party, announced today that part of her party’s election platform is a recognition of the important role that small businesses play in the province’s economy.

...

[url]http://nl.ndp.ca/nr090111SmallBusinessPlank[/url]

A pretty safe policy plank from the NDP.

 

lil.Tommy

Looks like the NDP is gaining (knock-on-wood) momentum:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2011/09/06/nl-cra-poll-906.html

 

The only part to see gains in the new Poll, but more importantly the NDP is ahead of the Liberals 24% vs 22%... the tories still have a huge margin at 54% but thats down 3points.

If this continues and (my NFLD friend can shed some light here) as i've been told the NDP support is concentrated in St. John's what could the seat count be? a sweep of SJ? (with this 24% i'd give the NDP Labrador West too)

Threads

If those polling numbers hold, and the relative regional distributions of all-party and NDP-specific votes in 2007 also hold, about a third of the votes in the election will be cast in St. John's-area ridings and half of the NDP's support will come from those ridings.  That would bring the NDP up to about 36% in the St. John's area (~12/33), and represent a near tripling of its vote there.

(Disclaimer: I've never stepped foot in Atlantic Canada.  The ridings I am treating as St. John's-area are Cape St. Francis, the Conception Bay ridings, Kilbride, the Mount Pearl ridings, Signal Hill—Quidi Vidi, St. John's C/N/S/E/W, Topsail, and Virginia Waters.)

Newfoundlander_...

I'll go through the St. John's districts for people.

City districts

Kilbride - A PC stronghold, incumbent John Dinn is basically the king of this area. He represented them as a city councilor for years and won 84% of the vote in 2007.

Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi - Lorraine Michael's district. She should take this seat, though the NDP should not assume it's an easy win with the PCs star candidate.

St. John's Centre - This is Minister of Natural Resources Shawn Skinner's district, and he has done well here in the past. While the NDP has a star candidate running in Gerry Rogers there is still not much hope she will win, though I predict a strong second place finish.

St. John's East - This is probably the NDPs best shot at picking up a second seat in St. John's, candidate George Murphy is well known and could be trouble for PC incumbent Ed Buckingham. The Liberals may also run well known lawyer and leadership candidate Bern Coffey in this district, I doubt he has much chance of winning but may keep votes away from the NDP.

St. John's North - NDP president Dale Kirby is running here and I wouldn't count him out. PC incumbent Bob Ridgley won 78% of the vote in 2007 but Kirby has made a name for himself over the last number of years. If he wins I won't be surprised to see him take over for Lorraine Michael in the next couple of years.

St. John's South - NDP candidate Keith Dunne is everything the party should be looking for in their candidates, young, educated, an activist and social media savy, but he simply picked a bad district to run in. Former Minister Tom Osborne is loved and probably doesn't even need to campaign, he took out a Liberal incumbent in the Liberals 1996 sweep when he was only 32 years old.

St. John's West - I don't really know how this district will go, incumbent Sheila Osborne(Tom's mother) is retiring and she has easily won this district in the past even though she never did anything. The PCs have Dan Crummel running here and he's fairly well known and a good candidate. The NDP candidte is Chris Pickard, he's your typical NDP candidate after working with community groups and what not. The real twist here is the Liberal candidate, George Joyce ran here in 2007 and won 20% of the vote, compared to Shelia's 73%, which was much better then any other Liberal candidate. While I don't think he has a chance at winning, he's obviously popular which will mean that the PCs and NDP won't just be battling each other.

Virginia Waters - Will likely be the safest seat in the city, if not the province. Premier Kathy Dunderdale will easily be re-elected in what is likely the province's most affluent district.

The suburbs

Cape St. Francis - A PC stronghold forever, I know this district well and incumbent Kevin Parsons should not have any trouble holding onto it. The NDP have a strong candidate in Torbay Deputy Mayor Geoff Gallant, Torbay accounts for 52% of eligible voters in the district, but he still doesn't have much of a chance turing the district orange.

Conception Bay East-Bell Island - While PC incumbent David Brazil shouldn't be at much risk of losing his seat, New Democrat Bill Kavanagh seems to be a strong candidate. Brazil won this district last year in a by-election, the day after Dunderdale was sworn in as premier, and faced off against St. John's East candidate George Murphy. Murphy won 26% of the vote, an icrease of 16% from 2007, so the potential for an upset is possible.

Conception Bay South - Minister Terry French's district and the only district in the area that the NDP have yet to find a candidate for. French is well liked and since winning 80% of the vote in 2007 he has become a minister, the NDP have not done much in the district in the past.

Mount Pearl North - Former Mount Pearl mayor Steve Kent will be seeking re-election and after winning one of the largest majorities in 2007 he will have no problem holding onto his seat. The NDP candidate Kurtis Coombs, who was mentioned previously, is a joke and the party has 0% chance of in this riding, a third place finish is likely.

Mount Pearl South - Another incumbent free riding. The PCs are running Paul Lane, a Mount Pearl city councilor with deep roots in the party, he will face off against John Riche, a real estate agent and nephew of former NDP president Nancy Riche. Riche should be able to do well in this district but is by far the underdog, and the Mount Pearl area was where Liberal Siobhan Coady had her support in May. Though what happens federally doesn't always translate provincially.

Topsail - Incumbent Paul Davis will not have any trouble holding onto this district, which he won in a 2010 by-election. The NDP placed second here in the by-election with 11% of the vote and are once again running Brian Nolan.

Newfoundlander_...

NDP 'oh so set to go'

For a party used to being in third place, Newfoundland and Labrador's NDP are not taking their ascent to second place in the polls lightly.

The New Democrats held their official campaign launch in St. John's on Friday night, with a party intended to rally workers as they spread out before the Oct. 11 election. The writ for the election will be issued on Monday.

Long-time organizer Nancy Riche said it feels as though they have been campaigning for quite some time.

"I think people are feeling good because a lot of work has been done already. So it's almost like mid-campaign and the volunteers are getting a break, but they are oh so set to go," Said Riche.

Leader Lorraine Michael drew cheers Friday night from supporters as she told them how public support has changed since the spring.

"It's been an astounding few months, folks," Michael said.

Provincial party president Dale Kirby said the campaign leading up to the provincial election on Oct. 11 will be the first of its kind for his party.

"We will have the best organized, the best funded campaign in the history of our party. There's no question about that," said Kirby.

Meanwhile, St. John's East MP Jack Harris attributes some of the provincial party's popularity to a spin-off from May's federal election, which swept the federal NDP to official Opposition status.

"I think that's a indicator that people are ready to accept the New Democratic Party as people with serious alternatives to the existing government, with something important to say," said Harris.

The NDP's Atlantic caucus met in St. John's Friday, tied into the party's campaign launch.

"I can feel the energy and the momentum here in Newfoundland and Labrador and it's going to break on Oct. 11," said St. John's South-Mount Pearl MP Ryan Cleary.

"We're going to see a great big orange wave sweep right across this province."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2011/09/16/nl-ndp-campaign-launch-916.html

 

 

 

Stockholm

I'm going out on a limb and predicting that the NL NDP goes from one seat to EIGHT seats in NL. I think that there is a huge vacuum what with Danny Williams out of the picture and the NDP brand is now very strong thanks to Harris and Cleary. I think they will pick up Labrador West and six seats in and around St. John's

Howard

Stockholm wrote:

I'm going out on a limb and predicting that the NL NDP goes from one seat to EIGHT seats in NL. I think that there is a huge vacuum what with Danny Williams out of the picture and the NDP brand is now very strong thanks to Harris and Cleary. I think they will pick up Labrador West and six seats in and around St. John's

Do you think having Roméo Saganash running for the federal NDP leadership could help the NL NDP in Labrador West?

Howard

Stockholm wrote:

I'm going out on a limb and predicting that the NL NDP goes from one seat to EIGHT seats in NL. I think that there is a huge vacuum what with Danny Williams out of the picture and the NDP brand is now very strong thanks to Harris and Cleary. I think they will pick up Labrador West and six seats in and around St. John's

Do you think having Roméo Saganash running for the federal NDP leadership could help the NL NDP in Labrador West?

Stockholm

Not really, the aboriginal population in Labrador is all on the coast. Labrador West is all miners.

Newfoundlander_...

What 6 seats do you think the NDP can pick up in the St.  John's Area, because I don't think with their current poll numbers 6 seats is that likely when the PC remain so popular. 

Stockholm

Its very difficult to extrapolate the latest month-old polling numbers onto the electoral map. Supposedly the NDP is at 24% across the province - but what if they are at 45% in St. John's (their big stronghold federally) and at 13% everywhere else (as was the pattern federally). Its very hard to say until there are some breakouts.

newfenian

My guess is that St. John's West, Kilbride, CBS, CBE-Bell Island, Mount Pearl North and South and Topsail are all safe PC seats. For now.

Virginia Waters: in the East End, but also includes some lower-income neighbourhoods such as Airport Heights, and stradles Signal Hill Quidi Vidi which is the only safe NDP seat in the province. When Dunderdale leaves politics, or if her popularity tanks, this should be considered target #1 for the NDP in the next election.

Cape St. Francis: the NDP's Kathleen Connors won a quarter of the vote during the 2008 by-election at the height of the PCs popularity.  Note that this preceded Jack Harris's enormous win a few months later in the federal election, and preceded the Orange Wave by almost three years, so it can't be written off as just a by-election quirk. This can be a future target riding too.

St. John's Centre, East, North and South: are all potential pick ups if the NDP maintain their growth in the next three weeks. In 2007, STJC and STJE had the next highest NDP tallies in the region after SH-QV. But I think the likeliest pick up in the Northeast Avalon is Dale Kirby in STJN. He has been excellent for the party, and it will be great to see Bob Ridgley out of office.

Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi: If Lorraine Michael can beat Jerome Kennedy (who now represents Carbonear) as she did in the 2006 by-election, she can beat our esteemed ex-Auditor General.

Outside the Northeast Avalon: there are some possibilities in Labrador, specifically in Lake Melville (Arlene Michelin-Pittman) and Lab West (Tom Harris). In 2007 the NDP candidate in the Bay of Islands won less than 2% of the vote, but one blog recently suggested that this time it could be a three-way race between the incumbent PC Terry Loder, former Liberal MHA Eddie Joyce, and new NDP candidate Tony Adey, who has been gunning for this seat since earlier this summer.

Burin-Placentia West looks promising. Clyde Jackman has been a dismal failure as a Fisheries Minister, and Julie Mitchell won 1/3 of the vote here in 2007, the third highest for the NDP in the province after SH-QV and Lab West. PC inattention to the fishery, Jackman's dismissing of the fisheries reform report in February, and the government bungling the Kiewit ship-building contract in Marystown could be bad news for the PCs. I wonder if Sam Synard is going to be helping Julie Mitchell in this election, or if he's going to be wearing his Liberal hat instead?

Over here, the grim view.

nicky

Thanks Newfenian. I wish we had such good intelligence on the Ontario election.

Can anyone tell us which provincial ridings the NDP would carry if the federal results are replicated? I expect they would get everything in Harris's territory and most in Cleary's and maybe a couple elsewhere. Which would be the best prospects based on the federal vote?

Newfoundlander_...

newfenian wrote:

My guess is that St. John's West, Kilbride, CBS, CBE-Bell Island, Mount Pearl North and South and Topsail are all safe PC seats. For now.

Virginia Waters: in the East End, but also includes some lower-income neighbourhoods such as Airport Heights, and stradles Signal Hill Quidi Vidi which is the only safe NDP seat in the province. When Dunderdale leaves politics, or if her popularity tanks, this should be considered target #1 for the NDP in the next election.

Cape St. Francis: the NDP's Kathleen Connors won a quarter of the vote during the 2008 by-election at the height of the PCs popularity.  Note that this preceded Jack Harris's enormous win a few months later in the federal election, and preceded the Orange Wave by almost three years, so it can't be written off as just a by-election quirk. This can be a future target riding too.

St. John's Centre, East, North and South: are all potential pick ups if the NDP maintain their growth in the next three weeks. In 2007, STJC and STJE had the next highest NDP tallies in the region after SH-QV. But I think the likeliest pick up in the Northeast Avalon is Dale Kirby in STJN. He has been excellent for the party, and it will be great to see Bob Ridgley out of office.

Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi: If Lorraine Michael can beat Jerome Kennedy (who now represents Carbonear) as she did in the 2006 by-election, she can beat our esteemed ex-Auditor General.

Outside the Northeast Avalon: there are some possibilities in Labrador, specifically in Lake Melville (Arlene Michelin-Pittman) and Lab West (Tom Harris). In 2007 the NDP candidate in the Bay of Islands won less than 2% of the vote, but one blog recently suggested that this time it could be a three-way race between the incumbent PC Terry Loder, former Liberal MHA Eddie Joyce, and new NDP candidate Tony Adey, who has been gunning for this seat since earlier this summer.

Burin-Placentia West looks promising. Clyde Jackman has been a dismal failure as a Fisheries Minister, and Julie Mitchell won 1/3 of the vote here in 2007, the third highest for the NDP in the province after SH-QV and Lab West. PC inattention to the fishery, Jackman's dismissing of the fisheries reform report in February, and the government bungling the Kiewit ship-building contract in Marystown could be bad news for the PCs. I wonder if Sam Synard is going to be helping Julie Mitchell in this election, or if he's going to be wearing his Liberal hat instead?

Over here, the grim view.

A bit to opptomistic. I agree Burin-Placentia West and Lab West have the potential to be close races. I've heard people say the NDP have a shot in Bay of Islands, I don't know much about the district but seeing the NDP only won 1% vote in the district last time I cann't see it being in play unless the NDP candidate is overwhelmingly popular. The NDP did get a good candidate in Lake Melville but this district will vote PC. The PC candidate is a former minister in the Nunatsiavut government and 1,200 people voted in the party's nomination, which is a huge number. As well the district is solidly behind Muskrat Falls.

Lorraine Michael will likely be safe, though John Noseworthy is better known then Jerome Kennedy was.

 St. John's South will not go NDP, or Liberal for that matter, while Tom Osborne is still around, he's just way to popular. The NDP have a great candidate in St. John's Centre, but she's running against one of the top cabinet ministers in the government. St. John's North will be interesting, the NDP did not do great there in 2007 but Dale Kirby is one of the party's best candidates. The party will likely do well here but it will be tough to win. St. John's East is the best chance for a pickup, with three legitimate candidates running for each party it'll be a tough one to call. St. John's West, which for some reason you considered safe, is another one that will he hard to call with no incumbent.

Cape St. Francis is solidly PC, and I've heard that there are people who worked for the NDP and Liberals that are now helping the PC campaign. The NDP have the deputy mayor of Torbay running but he's not very well known, espeically in the neighbouring communities. He should finish a respectable second place but the distgrict isn't in play. 

As well Airport Heights a low income neighbourhood??? I wouldn't consider homes that are valued at $300,000 + low income. Virginia Waters is the wealthiest district in the province and there is not much of the way in low income areas in the district, unless you consider a $300,000 home low income.

newfenian

Thanks N_L, I stand corrected about Airport Heights. I was probably thinking of the northern part of Torbay Road, which is not Airport Heights, rather than the northern part of Portugal Cove Road, which is. With that said, is the Torbay Road portion of Virgina Waters still a lower income, higher density residential area as it was when I lived in St. John's a little over three years ago? Or has it too been mowed down by the post-Hebron real estate boom and replaced with a developer's paradise? :)

About my predictions, they are best case scenarios with a healthy dose of wishful thinking. I remember being elated thinking that Jack Harris in 2008 was just going to raise the profile of the federal NDP in St. John's, and come third -- maybe second -- in a close three-way race. I never dreamed that he would win with 3/4 of the vote, in one of the biggest sweeps in the country that year. There's still room for some optimism.

Stockholm

This was just tweeted:

"MQO Research poll: PC: 53% NDP: 29% LIB: 18%. Leaders: KD: 64% LM: 22% KA: 14% Margin: +/-4.9% Sample: 413 Date: 09/16-09/18"

The NDP at 29% more or less matches the NDP vote share in the federal election in NL. If that 29% is relatively concentrated in St. John's (which it likely is) - the NL NDP could get a mini-Quebec style surge and sweep St. John's and be quite a strong opposition while the Libs get totaly wiped off the map!

lil.Tommy

ok, CBC HAD the story up, now it says not available?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nlvotes2011/story/2011/09/20/nl-poll-results-ndp.html

 With those numbers, Labrador West looks to be a solid pick-up, and so might Burin-Placentia West, maybe even some of those longer shots like Bay of Islands or Lake Melville; if that pans out and the NDP picks up 3-4 seats in SJs, look to see those two rural members front and centre too so as to give the party which is SJs centric a wider appeal and room to grow into the rural lands. This is big news that comes on the day the NDP will release their platform at 130 i believe

Stockholm

The headline should read "Realignment in Canadian Politics Spreads to The Rock"!

Policywonk

It could be that by the New Year (assuming an election in Alberta soon after the new Conservative leader is selected) the NDP will be in government, official opposition, or holding the balance of power in every province or territory where we contest elections except New Brunswick and PEI (assuming a Liberal majority there with a Conservative opposition).

Stockholm

With any luck the Liberals will win every single seat in PEI and then the NDP can claim to be "sharing" the role of extra-parliamentary opposition with the Tories!

Policywonk

Stockholm wrote:

With any luck the Liberals will win every single seat in PEI and then the NDP can claim to be "sharing" the role of extra-parliamentary opposition with the Tories!

That could happen, although it's never happened before in PEI (as opposed to New Brunswick).

Newfoundlander_...

Policywonk wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

With any luck the Liberals will win every single seat in PEI and then the NDP can claim to be "sharing" the role of extra-parliamentary opposition with the Tories!

That could happen, although it's never happened before in PEI (as opposed to New Brunswick).

It happened in 1935.

As well wouldn't they have to share the role of extra-parliamentary oppositon with all the parties then?

Howard

Stockholm wrote:

With any luck the Liberals will win every single seat in PEI and then the NDP can claim to be "sharing" the role of extra-parliamentary opposition with the Tories!

That's probably the "best case scenario" for the PEI NDP. 

Policywonk

Newfoundlander_Labradorian wrote:

Policywonk wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

With any luck the Liberals will win every single seat in PEI and then the NDP can claim to be "sharing" the role of extra-parliamentary opposition with the Tories!

That could happen, although it's never happened before in PEI (as opposed to New Brunswick).

It happened in 1935.

As well wouldn't they have to share the role of extra-parliamentary oppositon with all the parties then?

You are correct.

newfenian

nicky wrote:

Thanks Newfenian. I wish we had such good intelligence on the Ontario election.

Can anyone tell us which provincial ridings the NDP would carry if the federal results are replicated? I expect they would get everything in Harris's territory and most in Cleary's and maybe a couple elsewhere. Which would be the best prospects based on the federal vote?

I don't know enough about how well -- if at all -- the provincial electoral boundaries align with federal electoral boundaries. But, the506.com  has a list of every electoral district in Canada, with vote tallies in the 2011 general election mapped poll-by-poll.  The data can also be retrieved from this Elections Canada page.

From the maps and data for St. John's South--Mount Pearl and St. John's East, it looks like Jack Harris took every single poll in SJE, and Ryan Cleary took all but 28 of 202 polls in SJS-MP. The 28 polls that Cleary lost are split between Loyola Sullivan and Siobhan Coady, with Coady taking the lion's share. Even though most of Coady's support was in the west end and Mount Pearl, it still looks like Cleary would have won the respective provincial equivalent districts (St. John's West, Mount Pearl North, and Mount Pearl South).

In other words, and to answer the original question, if the federal electoral data from May could hypothetically be transplanted on to the provincial electoral map in October, the NDP would take every district in the Northeast Avalon.

Newfoundlander_...

It's hard to compare the federal NDP results with what the provincial party may get. The federal NDP have done better in NL then their provincial party, in 2006 the NDP got 31,000 votes in NL and in the 2007 election the provincial NDP only got 19,000. This may be changing now but I don't think we should expect to see the same people that voted NDP in May to vote NDP in October. If it were not for Harper the Conservatives would have remained strong in St. John's and would have done better elsewhere in the province. 

Stockholm

BUT, I think its clear that any way you slice it the NL NDP is set to massively increase its share of the province-wide popular vote compared to the 2007 election when it was just 7% - it will at worst double or triple and probably quadruple or quintuple! - chances are that there will be at least SOME correlation of increased provincial NDP support with increased federal support. If NDP support in NL goes from 7% to -say - 30% - where do you think that extra 23% is most likely to come from?? I think it is more likely to come from people who voted NDP federally than to come from people who voted Tory or liberal federally!

The Conservatives might have remained strong for a bit longer in St. John's federally in the absence of Williams ABC campaign - but I think that the federal Tory strength in St. John's was a last anachronistic vestige of a long gone era of "Maritime red Tory" traditions. Remember that Halifax used to be Bob Stanfield's riding and now its a supersafe NDP and Tory candidates there barely save their deposits. I think that given the way the federal Conservative party has evolved into more of a hard-right Alberta dominated party - it was inevitable that their strength in a relatively progressive, socially liberal and growing place like St. John's was going to fade.

St. John's now votes the way Halifax does and you won't see St. John's electing federal Tory MPs until the day you see halifax doing so. My guess is that in 2015 - you will see the NDP make a major play for Saint John and Moncton, NB to complete the set!

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