NS NDP Retains Lead

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Centrist
NS NDP Retains Lead

Party Preference:

NDP: 37% (+-0)

Lib: 35% (+-0)

PC: 21% (-3%)

Green: 7% (+3%)

Leadership Approvals:

Dexter: 27% (+3%)

McNeil (Lib): 31% (+2%)

(No one) PC: 16% (-2%)

Looks like NDP support has stabilized and that the NDP have built themselves a larger base of party support. I see those numbers increasing down the road.

http://www.cra.ca/site-cra/media/CRA/10-3%20NS%20Tables.pdf

Stockholm

The second set of numbers is not actually "leadership approvals" it is "best person for premier"

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Why would there be a 3% swing from the Tories to the Greens?

KenS

The NSGreens are an abslute non-entity. They NVER are in the news, and if the survey didnt mention them, its very safe to assume they'd be forgotten.

So their change is a movement of whatever. And no reason to think its related to the PCs going down- they are after all only minimaly in sight. No one wanted to be Leader, etc.

Stockholm

I understand that the PCs do have a new leader now - what's he like? anything formidable?

David Young

The new Tory leader, Jamie Baille, was in former Premier John Hamm's 'inner circle', so he's a well-connected PC insider, who won the leadership by acclimation...nobody else wanted to be the leader of the Third Party in the N.S. Legislature.

Considering that the Tories won only 10 seats in the 2009 election, and lost two of those (Antigonish to the NDP and Yarmouth to the Liberals), and will probably lose another, Cape Breton North, when that M.L.A. resigns to run as a federal Conservative in the next federal election in Sydney-Victoria, it's not too surpising why the leadership contest drew so little interest.

He'll have an easy time getting into the House, when another M.L.A., Mark Parent, resigns his Colchester North seat later this year.

Yawn!

 

KenS

Mark Parent lost his Kings North seat in the election.

The until recently interim leader Karen Casey is Colchester North. I'd heard no rumours she was resigning.

You probably mean the resignation in Cumberlan South, where Baillee will run. A seat where the NDP had given a run for the money in the election, despite the popularity of the incumbent. But even the sad sack PCs should be able to hold onto that one when the by- happens.

David Young

Right you are, KenS.

I meant Cumberland South, not the next-door riding of Colchester North, where Murray Scott has said he's resigning soon.

Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dumm(er?)

 

Centrist

Any thoughts on the Cumberland South by-election? What happened to our 2nd place finish from 2009?

 

[2009 Election results in brackets]

PC [4,353 - 67.94%] / 3,262 - 57.2% (-10.7%)

NDP [1,641 - 25.61%] / 276 - 4.8% (-20.8%)

LIB [325 - 5.07%] / 2,165 - 38% (+33%)

 

[Election turnout - 64%] By-election turnout - 59%

 

KenS

Pretty extreme mitigating circumstances on that by-election.

The riding was VERY displeased that the planned new provincial jail was cancelled by the government. Last year's general election candidate very publicly quit over that.

And the by-election turned out as a lot being a referendum on the parachuting of the new PC Leader. The NDP never had an organization in the riding- though the departed general election candidate had made progress on that.

Scott MacKee is a past candidate who agreed to be name on the ballot, nothing more.

But as much as mitigating circumstances for this vote, all of those are signs of numerous problems.

And even with mitigating circumstances.... 5% of the vote with a stong turnoat, ia about one quarter of the NDP's floor for a riding like this.

remind remind's picture

They wanted the new jail?

Stockholm

A new jail means government jobs!

remind remind's picture

How many?

Centrist

So residents in the riding were displeased that the jail didn't go in and take it out on the NDP? And in BC, a new pre-trial centre was to go into the provincial Burnaby-Deer Lake riding, the NDP opposes it, and wins the riding in 2009 because of its opposition to same?

An issue like this obviously has different political ramifications on both the right and left coast. Tongue out

Stockholm

This issue plays very differently in a rural riding with high unemployment and very few decent paying jobs than in the middle of Vancouver where people are more likely to just think of a jail as an eye sore etc...

jrootham

Let's estimate.  

Pop 900,000, incarceration rate 60/100,000,  2/3 in provincial jail.= ~600 prisoners.  1 job/ 10 prisoners x 3 shifts?

180 jobs. If 1 job/prisoner ~1800 jobs. My guess is somewhere in between. 

The riding is only 12,000 people.  200+ jobs has a big impact.

Note:  The decision not to build the jail there is likely correct, but definitely politically expensive.

 

remind remind's picture

can't see it being 200+ jobs, laundry and food services are all now contracted out in most prisons, yard work and inside cleaning is dependant upon whether paid prisoners do it completely, or partially, under supervision, so that leaves guards, support councillors (also contracted out usually) and admin staff.

 

How many of that 12, 000 in the riding would have Correctional officer training to  step into said guard jobs? And  how many would come from out of community to fill said positions under union contract?

 

...sounds like the NSNDP fell short on communicating realities from hopes.

jrootham

Contracting out has a minor impact on the local job count.  The work still gets done locally.  People moving in for jobs still count, they spend their paycheque locally.

Not to say this is a good basis to make the decision.

I would assume that killing off pork barrel politics attitudes is going to take a while.

 

remind remind's picture

You could be correct, but that is not what is happening here in northern BC.

Not being familiar with the NS riding in question I must ask; would people move in, or would they commute?

If there were 200 jobs created that would mean about another 50 jobs allegedly for the community, give or take a couple. But I cannot really see a staff of 200.

There was talk of putting a federal prison here, and when push came to shove numbers wise I think there was going to be 9 community jobs created, with less than 50 moving in. Indeed if they even moved in, it was thought the shifts would work 9 on 5 off, or something like that, and commuting to family home in the city would occur.

 

would like to see normal staffing rates per prison system though.

 

Interesting though, that the coasts are the opposite position wise on building prisons.

KenS

I dont think BC would be any different if you take a similar area where there are few to zero jobs within commuting distance [for BC: no mill or mine or gas jobs], and where very few people will live as near neighbours to the prison. And for a provincial prison at least, there are a lot more jobs than you are talking about remind.

Whether that is true for comparable places in BC [not remote and super thin population, but far from good jobs], and there are fewer comparable areas in BC.... no question that in the East the welcome mat would be out in a big way.

Stockholm

The NS NDP seems to be rebounding:

NDP 38%, Libs 31%, Tories 26%

 

http://www.cra.ca/en/home/Newsroom/SatisfactionWithNovaScotiaNDPGovernme...

Caissa

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Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/nova-scotia/story/2011/02/08/ns-education-budget-cuts.html#ixzz1DOnb85Mh

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