Proposed federal boundaries for Newfoundland & Labrador

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Robo
Proposed federal boundaries for Newfoundland & Labrador

The first federal boundaries commission report is now out.

Robo

The first report on the proposed federal boundaries for Newfoundland and Labrador proposes no changes for Labrador and St. John's South-Mount Pearl, and relatively small adjustments to St. John's North and Avalon. Huge changes are proposed to the three non-Avalon Peninsula seats in Newfoundland, in effect redistributing the relatively long and narrow south shore seat so that there are now three "north-south" ridings in non-Avalon seats.

All three of those seats are held by Liberals -- I imagine that few complaints will be heard from Tories hoping to "mix things up" in terms of MPs seeking re-election in ridings that will necessarily have those three incumbents having to appeal to lots of new voters, if these boundaries survive the public consultation process.

nicky

Can anyone comment on NDP prospects in the new Avalon constituency, assuming the new boundries are adopted?

It loses about 17,000 voters to the west but gains a roughly equal number from Jack Harris's riding.

Jack of course got in excess of 70%, much of which is doubtless a personal vote. Even so the NDP base in Avalon will be much higher than the 15% it achieved last election.

PoliSciStudent

If Scott Andrews runs again in Avalon, which is likely, he should be able to strengthen his win because his base on support is in CBS, where he was formally a town councillor, and that whole town will now be in Avalon. The NDP will likely have a better chance in the riding of Bonavista-Burin-Trinity because eastern Newfoundland is where the party performed well to in the provincial election.

infracaninophile infracaninophile's picture

Has the NDP ever done well in Labrador? I worked there awhile ago and it seemed to me like the demographics might be favourable..... but a lot has changed since then so I have no sense of whether that is still true (I worked in one of the coastal communities).

PoliSciStudent

They use to do well in Labrador West and won it in the last election. They represented the area provincially for a while, it was actually the first district they ever won, but their support went down a fair bit in the last provincial election. 

twinklestar

Avalon actually becomes less Liberal friendly, as the area around Trinity Bay that it loses went heavily Liberal last election.

PoliSciStudent

Robo wrote:
PoliSciStudent wrote:

They use to do well in Labrador West and won it in the last election. They represented the area provincially for a while, it was actually the first district they ever won, but their support went down a fair bit in the last provincial election. 

Actually, the NDP most recently won Labrador West two elections ago, in 2003. The first seat won by the NDP in Newfoundland and Labrador was St. John's East, which is the predecessor seat to what is now called Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi, which was won by Gene Long in a 1986 by-election. (My favourite part about that by-election is that the third place Liberal candidate who lost to Gene Long was Rex Murphy -- yes, that Rex Murphy -- who had been a PC candidate a decade earlier.) In the last provincial election, the NDP did slightly worse in Labrador West than in neighbouring Lake Melville, where the NDP candidate had deep roots in the community. Unfortunately, the worst showing for any NDP candidate in the whole of the province in the most recent provincial election was also in a Labrador riding, which was Cartwright-L'anse au Clair. In other words, Labrador is a mix.

I meant the 2003 election, still forgetting it was two elections ago now. However, Labrador West, formally known as Menihek, was won by leader Peter Fenwick in a 1984 by-election, the next year he led the party to what was their best election till 2011.

PoliSciStudent

twinklestar wrote:

Avalon actually becomes less Liberal friendly, as the area around Trinity Bay that it loses went heavily Liberal last election.

I was forgetting the riding was losing almost all of the Bay De Verde Peninsula. I still think if Scott Andrews runs he should be able to win enough votes in the new part of what was St. John's East to offset what he loses elsewhere.

Robo

PoliSciStudent wrote:

They use to do well in Labrador West and won it in the last election. They represented the area provincially for a while, it was actually the first district they ever won, but their support went down a fair bit in the last provincial election. 

Actually, the NDP most recently won Labrador West two elections ago, in 2003. The first seat won by the NDP in Newfoundland was St. John's East, which is the predecessor seat to what is now called Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi, which was won by Gene Long in a 1986 by-election. (My favourite part about that by-election is that the third place Liberal candidate who lost to Gene Long was Rex Murphy -- yes, that Rex Murphy -- who had been a PC candidate a decade earlier.)

In the last provincial election, the NDP did slightly worse in Labrador West than in neighbouring Lake Melville, where the NDP candidate had deep roots in the community. Unfortunately, the worst showing for any NDP candidate in the whole of the province in the most recent provincial election was also in a Labrador riding, which was Cartwright-L'anse au Clair. In other words, Labrador is a mix.

Robo

PoliSciStudent wrote:

However, Labrador West, formally known as Menihek, was won by leader Peter Fenwick in a 1984 by-election, the next year he led the party to what was their best election till 2011.

I forgot about Menihek. I amended my comments above to read "first seat won in Newfoundland", rather than "first seat in Newfoundland and Labrador", to correct the error. Thanks for the reminder.

Stockholm

If the federal Liberals are still moribund in 2015 and the NDP under Mulcair has all the momentium, I would not be surprised if some of the Liberal incumbents in NL quit the Liberal caucus to sit as independents and announce tyhat they will seek NDP nominations in the next election.

PoliSciStudent

Stockholm wrote:

If the federal Liberals are still moribund in 2015 and the NDP under Mulcair has all the momentium, I would not be surprised if some of the Liberal incumbents in NL quit the Liberal caucus to sit as independents and announce tyhat they will seek NDP nominations in the next election.

Why?

Stockholm

Why? Be cause they will want to be government not on the backbenches on a totally marginalized third party. Also some Liberals in NL may be progressive people who went Liberal when the NDP was still non-existent in NL and the Liberals still looked poised to come back to power. Seriously I wonder how many Liberal MPs across Canada would have become Liberals in the first place had they known that by 2012 the NDP would be the official opposition and leading the national polls?

PoliSciStudent

Stockholm wrote:

Why? Be cause they will want to be government not on the backbenches on a totally marginalized third party. Also some Liberals in NL may be progressive people who went Liberal when the NDP was still non-existent in NL and the Liberals still looked poised to come back to power. Seriously I wonder how many Liberal MPs across Canada would have become Liberals in the first place had they known that by 2012 the NDP would be the official opposition and leading the national polls?

I don't see it. Gerry Byrne could retire, and seems to be on the more conservative side of the Liberal Party. Judy Foote would likely just leave politics to and as for Scott Andrews and Scott Simms they'd probably move to provincial politics then cross the floor, I don't know if they'd move to the NDP anymore then the Conservatives either. I also don't know why they'd move from the backbench of one party to the backbench of another, if Jack Harris seeks re-election he'd be the cabinet minister in an NDP government.