Rothesay NB byelection

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Stockholm
Rothesay NB byelection

A byelection just got called in the suburban Saint John riding of Rothesay. It ought to be a super-safe Tory seat.

There is some possibility that NB NDP leader Dominic Cardy will run there to gain some profile and double or triple or quadruple the 8% the NDP got there in the 2010 election.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/05/25/nb-rothesay...

Regions: 
Caissa

One of the people seeking the nomination for the PCs is a relatively recent graduate of UNB Saint John.

The NDP have already sent me 2 emails looking for donations for this campaign. I am  waiting to see who the NDP candidate turns out to be. The Libs are still leaderless.

Caissa

New Democratic Party Leader Dominic Cardy will run in next month's Rothesay byelection in the hope of winning the party's first seat in the legislature since 2005.

"The main reason is, as leader of the New Democrats, we have to show that we're ready to win seats across New Brunswick," he told CBC News.

Cardy will officially announce Friday that he will seek the seat left empty by Progressive Conservative Margaret-Ann Blaney, who resigned as MLA earlier this month.

The byelection will be held on June 25.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/05/31/nb-cardy-ru...

webby66

Caissa wrote:

One of the people seeking the nomination for the PCs is a relatively recent graduate of UNB Saint John.

The NDP have already sent me 2 emails looking for donations for this campaign. I am  waiting to see who the NDP candidate turns out to be. The Libs are still leaderless.

 

The Leader is running, is that enough to get you to donate?

mtm

Huge news.  This will be a very interesting race to be sure!

Caissa

I'll be writing a cheque this weekend Webby66.

Stockholm

Today Rothesay, tomorrow...THE WORLD!

webby66

Caissa wrote:

I'll be writing a cheque this weekend Webby66.

 

Excellent

felixr

Tom Mulcair wrote:
Dominic represents simply the best of the best of the NDP.

4:45

webby66

felixr wrote:

Tom Mulcair wrote:
Dominic represents simply the best of the best of the NDP.

4:45

 

wow, I hadn't seen that before. Thats a very solid endorsement of the work Cardy has done.

Caissa

Cardy had endorsed Mulcair, previously.

The PCs nominated Hugh John Flemming III, grandson and great grandson of premiers, and son of a former Classics professor of mine. Cardy was campaiging in Rothesay all weekend despite the nomination meeting not having taken place yet. We'll see how this race plays out.

Stockholm

I assume the NDP nomination will be an acclamation...

Caissa

It would be amazing if it was not. Does the NDP having any members in Rothesay? 8^))

webby66

https://twitter.com/poitrasCBC/status/209985716309082112

 

Interesting, not that the PANB would get many votes, but it will force the "protest" votes to stay home or vote otherwise.

Caissa

A right wing part leader endorsing an NDP candidate. Shudder.

Quote:

Cardy said Austin's support shows there is a desire among the province's smaller parties to work together to unseat the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives.

"I have talked with Kris before, about how every New Brunswicker who wants to change the political culture of the province needs to work together. When it comes to the fight against patronage I am proud to have the People's Alliance on my side," he said in a statement.

The two parties also said in a statement they will work together in the future "when possible."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/05/nb-cardy-au...

Stockholm

AS far as i know PANB was a virtually dead party anyways. They got 1% of the vote in the last election and have been going downhill ever since. That being said, its good publicity and the coverage of this otherwise worthless endorsement makes it sudden;y valuable in that Cardy dominates another news cycle.

felixr
felixr

Caissa wrote:

It would be amazing if it was not. Does the NDP having any members in Rothesay? 8^))

link

link 2

ETA: link 3

Caissa

Finance Minister Blaine Higgs repeatedly refused to endorse Premier David Alward's decision to appoint Margaret-Ann Blaney as the new president of Efficiency New Brunswick.

The Alward Tories have come under fire in recent weeks about Blaney's appointment, which has been blasted as patronage by the Opposition Liberals.

Higgs, who has earned a reputation as a straight-talking cabinet minister, refused to support Blaney's appointment in question period on Wednesday.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/06/nb-higgs-boudreau-blaney-137.html

 

Caissa

Another prominent Progressive Conservative is refusing to endorse the appointment of Margaret-Ann Blaney as the new president of Efficiency New Brunswick.

Hugh John (Ted) Flemming III, the Tory candidate in the upcoming Rothesay byelection to replace Blaney, won't say what he thinks of the controversial decision.

"I wasn't there," he told CBC News.

"I support the merit system. That's what I support. That's the only business I know. That's the only system I know."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/06/nb-blaney-p...

Caissa

New Brunswick New Democrat Leader and candidate in the by-election in Rothesay, Dominic Cardy announced if elected to the legislature he will introduce the Rothesay Charter to End Patronage. 

"For 150 years, New Brunswick has suffered from a culture of political patronage that has undermined our economy and weakened our province," said Cardy. 

"On my first day in the legislature I will take the Charter to the Liberals and Conservatives and ask them to support it. If they refuse, they can spend the next two years explaining why they refuse to take action," said Cardy. 

The charter will include a ban to hiring based on political affiliation, with the exception of employees directly employed by elected officials. It would also include new rules for hiring CEOs of Crown Corporations, that would require a impartial hiring process controlled by an independent third party.

http://www.nbndp.ca/node/640

Caissa

Blaine Higgs appeared alongside Premier David Alward on Thursday afternoon but the finance minister still would not say whether he supports the government's decision to appoint Margaret-Ann Blaney as president of Efficiency New Brunswick.

Higgs has repeatedly said he respects Alward's role in making the appointment of Blaney, but he has not said whether he supports the decision.

Higgs was asked repeatedly in question period on Wednesday - when Alward was out of the province attending a Council of Atlantic Premiers meeting - about Blaney's appointment.

The finance minister's consistently said he supported Alward's authority to make the decision, but he did not say whether he supported it.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/08/nb-alward-h...

Caissa

From an email I just received:

The Dominic Cardy for Rothesay Campaign is pleased to invite all New Brunswick New Democrat members and supporters to attend the Rally for Rothesay with our federal leader, Thomas Mulcair, THIS SUNDAY (June 10th) at 1pm at the Bill McGuire Memorial Centre in Rothesay.

felixr
KenS

 

Tom Mulcair blasts fracking plans in New Brunswick

Federal NDP leader stumps for Dominic Cardy in Rothesay byelection

 

I posted this on a fracking action list:

This is excellent.

And I want to point out what Mulcair and Cardy and the NBNDP are doing in giving
pride of place to fracking here. I think this is a big deal.

Read the article, and headline aside, Cardy is pushing mostly the patronage
issue. Thats the big deal as far as political capital and this race goes.

I know Dominic Cardy, and he is in this to win.... it not being a likely NDP
seat notwithsanding, and the NBNDP having chronicaly low horizons.

They chose to use the opportunity of Mulcair's visit- guarantedd media hits- to
give fracking high billing.

That is testimony both to the importance of the issue in NB, and that Cardy sees
this as a winning issue for the NDP to give top billing to. Bear in mind,
distant third place parties only get a very limited number of issues they can
EFFECTIVELY profile.

And Cardy is saying this is one of them.

Good news.

1springgarden

Hopefully Cardy loses.  He substantially agrees with Premier Alward that eliminating the NB deficit is job #1.  Alward is known to have taken a "balanced approach" to eliminating the NB deficit, which is set to cross zero in 2014 one year after the NS NDP is pledging 'balance'.  Cardy is at best a "business-Dipper" and is inauthentic as a leader of a left protest.  The People's Alliance of New Brunswick by lending their support to Cardy, have destroyed their own ability to petition the governing PCs or consult the opposition Liberals on the issues which are important to them, a waste of their organization's potential in New Brunswick. 

Cardy is playing a long-game of campaigning against the Alward government to raise his/NDP fortunes in a future election.  It would just be a mistake if New Brunswickers believe that Cardy is a vehicle for left protest on any particular issue.

Stockholm

So you don't think opposing shale gas fracking and wanting to end patronage matter?

Caissa

Pam Schicilone (sp) who ran for the NDP in the last election has endorsed the PC candidate ted Flemming. I'll try to find a link later.

webby66

1springgarden wrote:

Hopefully Cardy loses.  He substantially agrees with Premier Alward that eliminating the NB deficit is job #1.  Alward is known to have taken a "balanced approach" to eliminating the NB deficit, which is set to cross zero in 2014 one year after the NS NDP is pledging 'balance'.  Cardy is at best a "business-Dipper" and is inauthentic as a leader of a left protest.  The People's Alliance of New Brunswick by lending their support to Cardy, have destroyed their own ability to petition the governing PCs or consult the opposition Liberals on the issues which are important to them, a waste of their organization's potential in New Brunswick. 

Cardy is playing a long-game of campaigning against the Alward government to raise his/NDP fortunes in a future election.  It would just be a mistake if New Brunswickers believe that Cardy is a vehicle for left protest on any particular issue.

 

I love this quote "and is inauthentic as a leader of a left protest"

 

Guess what, we're not just a protest party for the far left nutters to play with anymore.

felixr

felixr wrote:

Caissa wrote:

It would be amazing if it was not. Does the NDP having any members in Rothesay? 8^))

link

link 2

ETA: link 3

Found this and this too. Not bad for a riding where the New Brunswick NDP got 8% just two years ago.

robbie_dee

Does Cardy have a real chance? I don't know the riding but I understand that the town of Rothesay is quite wealthy. Not typically fertile NDP turf, even if Cardy's a blue dipper.

KenS

I dont think Cardy's 'cross appeal' is primarily that of being a 'blue Dipper'.... if he even has that appeal at all. [I would say the latter is more a case of a touch of 'sanitizing' to make sure he isnt seen as the threat the NDP tends to be seen at in the region... until we are winners. Obviously, I think the party can be swallowed by that concern- or swallow itself- like Dexter. But doing some of it does not mean necessarily you are in the process of swallowing yourself. Thats another discussion. For the purposes now: Cardy's primary appeal is not 'blue Dipper', and I think its questionable how much a feature that is at all,]

#1- this is a by-election. And there is a lot of disaatisfaction out there, on a number of issues. Patronage has been added to that, and nobody likes that. Then there is fracking- where the concerns spread into the suburbs, and cut across ideological lines.

Then there is the fact that Dominic is a consumate organizer- when superior organization because its a by-election means even more. And Dominic is good enough at it, to do a bang up job leading it even when he only he has spare time to directly devote to organizing, because he's busy as the candidate.

Watch him.

KenS

One reason people are in Rothsay is because it borders a huge tract of parkland. [or is part of it?]

People that are conservationists as the route into being environmentaly concerned are a big part of the 'fractivists'.

Stockholm

My understanding is that the wealthy Rothesay neighbourhood is only about 25% of the riding of Rothesay. The rest is middle class suburbia and indistinguishable from suburban areas of Halifax that are now safe NDP territory.

Caissa

The Alward government is offering a new explanation for the controversial appointment of Margaret-Ann Blaney as president of Efficiency New Brunswick.

The former energy minister was given the high-paying job of president and chief executive officer of the Crown corporation in May, even though a civil servant had been put in the job in March.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/14/nb-robichau...

mtm

And the story keeps changing.  From what I hear, the Tories are pretty worried.  They are working much harder for this byelection than they had ever expected.

Caissa

I think the Tories would be better off just not talking about this issue until the by-election is over. They gain absolutely nothing my reminding people of the topic, especially with yesterday's ridiculous spin.

mtm

They just cannot help themselves it seems!

webby66

https://twitter.com/lisahrabluk/status/214691848789299200

"The patio and coffeehouse chatter I hear in Rothesay increasingly thinks Dominic Cardy is going to win ‪#rsayvotes‬ ‪#nbpoli‬"

 

Stockholm

Olivia Chow is going to Rothesay to campaign for Dominic cardy tomorrow...nice to see all levels of the NDP pitching in like this!

janfromthebruce

That's what I like about the NDP Stock, we try to be helpful to one another and pitch in. I think that part of that is because there is one membership for provincial and federal and so we feel we are one - I don't ever want to change that part of the organization. Thus it makes it easy and natural to be a federalist but feel just as beholding provincially.

Sure there are differences across Canada in terms of cultural of the NDP, whether provincially or say urban, rural, northern and so on but there is unity. Olivia is the best to go out and help out.

felixr

janfromthebruce wrote:

That's what I like about the NDP Stock, we try to be helpful to one another and pitch in.

Agreed.

 

webby66 wrote:

https://twitter.com/lisahrabluk/status/214691848789299200

"The patio and coffeehouse chatter I hear in Rothesay increasingly thinks Dominic Cardy is going to win ‪#rsayvotes‬ ‪#nbpoli‬"

I'm hearing more people conceding that Dominic Cardy will do quite well, if not in fact win. Another thing I'm hearing is that the Cardy campaign needs money and has been appealing widely for donations.

The New Brunswick NDP have not had a seat in the legislature since 2005 and at the federal level hold 1 seat and finished second in 6. They also came very close in Moncton, where they finished third, and in recent history have been very strong in Madawaska-Restigouche, where they also finished third. This riding borders Québec ridings the NDP swept in 2011. So the growth prospects for the NDP are huge, but the party needs some sort of a push.

felixr
mtm

If its any indication, the Liberal and PC candidates are getting very nasty in their attacks of Dominic Cardy this week.

If people recall, early in the campaign, Liberal Interim Leader Victor Boudreau essentially dared Cardy to run in the byelection:

CBC June 1st: “He is the leader of the provincial New Democratic Party, he doesn't have a seat in the house, and this is an opportunity to show what he's made of,” Boudreau had said.

Now, the Liberal leader and his candidate are attacking Cardy for "parachuting" into the riding, something they had dared him to do.  "I've been in this riding for 26 years. Dominic Cardy has been here 26 minutes", Liberal candidate John Wilcox said on CTV news last night. 

Granted, this is true - Cardy is from Fredericton.  However, when your own leader essentially calls someone a coward for not running, you kind of cede the ground in the campaign to legitimately criticize when they do call your bluff.  Liberals can't help but seem completely hypocritical here.

 

Following that up, Cardy had Olivia Chow in the riding yesterday and took the opportunity to present the NB NDP plan (similar to what was in the last platform) to reduce small business tax to zero in a way to stimulate economic growth.  He was sure to point out that this would be a net-zero, as the savings from cutting corporate welfare programs like Business NB and INvest NB would more than pay for this loss in revenue, and would get government out of the business of picking winners and losers, which squeezes out new entrants to the market, to the benefit of NB's small corporate oligarchy.

In addition, he said that the first order of business would be to get out of deficit, and that this plan would be put into place AS SOON AS and not before the province's books were balanced.

Seemingly hearing none of this, or ignoring the details, the PC candidate was quoted in the Telegraph Journal today attacking Cardy based on McCarthyist-style labels and innuendo.  It is quite troubling.

 

<<Its..“at its best naïve, at its worst it’s irresponsible. Clearly he has no idea of the financial situation of the province, he doesn’t have any idea that small businesses pay extremely low tax rates in any event. It’s typical socialist prattle when you have no meaningful expectation of being in government, you can promise anything,” Flemming said.>>

 

I don't think the Tories and Liberals would be going quite this negative if they didn't have information that Cardy was the front runner.

 

 

 

 

felixr

For KenS, Dominic Cardy is fiercely opposed to fracking and wants to fight the next provincial election over it.

Dominic Cardy wrote:
We can have progress, we can have development, we can have new industries in this province, but they will not include fracking.
1:42-2:02 link

David Young

Just imagine what the effect of a Dominic Cardy victory would have, should it come to happen on Monday!

Stay tuned!

 

 

janfromthebruce

oh I so hope so David.

felixr
Wilf Day

robbie_dee wrote:

Does Cardy have a real chance? I don't know the riding but I understand that the town of Rothesay is quite wealthy. Not typically fertile NDP turf, even if Cardy's a blue dipper.

In another thread about the proposed new federal riding boundaries:

nicky wrote:

The New Brunswick redistribution certainly seems favourable to the Conservatives.

St John is considerably underrepresented (+14%).

The changes seem highly prejudicial to NDP prospects in its two nearest losses. St John remains largely unchanged and greatly over the quota. We might have expected a fairer redistribution to carve off some of the Conservative suburbs but they remain.

Actually he's talking about one Conservative suburb: Rothesay.

I wish Dominic all the luck in the world, but don't kid yourself about where he's running.

1springgarden

mtm wrote:
Following that up, Cardy had Olivia Chow in the riding yesterday and took the opportunity to present the NB NDP plan (similar to what was in the last platform) to reduce small business tax to zero in a way to stimulate economic growth.  He was sure to point out that this would be a net-zero, as the savings from cutting corporate welfare programs like Business NB and INvest NB would more than pay for this loss in revenue, and would get government out of the business of picking winners and losers, which squeezes out new entrants to the market, to the benefit of NB's small corporate oligarchy.

Damn!

Quote:
In addition, he said that the first order of business would be to get out of deficit, and that this plan would be put into place AS SOON AS and not before the province's books were balanced.

Double damn!

Quote:
Seemingly hearing none of this, or ignoring the details, the PC candidate was quoted in the Telegraph Journal today attacking Cardy based on McCarthyist-style labels and innuendo.  It is quite troubling.

 

It's hard to believe the Liberals or Tories could attack Cardy.  In fact, he should join them.

janfromthebruce

Actually, I disagree. You know, small and medim size businesses are the backbone of our country - who do you think employs those front line workers? I'd rather support small business because they are main street and not corporate Canada street.

And Tommy Douglas completely understood how being debt makes you beholden to banks who in turn call the shots. See IMF and how it controls countries when it lends them money. Tommy got it as a socialist.

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