Rothesay NB byelection

70 posts / 0 new
Last post
Caissa

I was in a meeting this morning with a provincial tory cabinet minister who feels pretty confident about today's vote.

1springgarden

janfromthebruce wrote:

Actually, I disagree. You know, small and medim size businesses are the backbone of our country - who do you think employs those front line workers? I'd rather support small business because they are main street and not corporate Canada street.

And Tommy Douglas completely understood how being debt makes you beholden to banks who in turn call the shots. See IMF and how it controls countries when it lends them money. Tommy got it as a socialist.

I object to the NDP becoming the party of small business and there are many NDP politicians showcasing policies which tack that way -- is that the best the NDP has to offer policy wise?.  I disagree with 'zero' for small business income taxes if that is what Cardy is proposing.  I disagree making deficit elimination the #1 priority to the point that it destroys families' livelihoods, as Cardy is proposing austerity as his "first order of business."  If that is the best the NDP can bring to a campaign then one can only ask -- where is the vision?  I would not doorknock or donate in support of that vision.

Stockholm

The main thrust of the Cardy campaign has been to end all political patronage in NB and for a moratorium on fracking for natural gas...what's not to like??

KenS

Polls are closed. And results should be starting to come in. Keep us posted. Is NB Elections or some news feed pretty quick with updating, even for a single by-electionÉ

Aristotleded24

Cardy is currently in third place.

Ippurigakko

PC 608, NDP 440, Lib 420, Grn 19, Ind 29.

accord to Twitter

nicky

PC 453

Lib 280

NDP 292

The Con margin is entirey on the "special Polls" Cardy leads narrowly on the regular polls, only6 of 27 reporting.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Here's the first numbers, the results of the "special ballots" as reported by a blogger on CBC:

PC 134

LIB 69,

NDP 49,

Green 4,

Ind 7.

(link: http://www.cbc.ca/nb/)

Ippurigakko

twitter

PC 716, NDP 537, Lib 503, Ind 30, Grn 24. 14/32 polls

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Looks like Coady has an outside chance, but that more than anything else this is an embarrassment to the Liberals.

Also, with less than half the polls reporting, Coady has already nearly matched the raw vote total for the NDP candidate in Rothesay(535 votes) in the NB 2010 provincial election(a contest in which the turnout was massively higher than it will be tonight).

Aristotleded24

It looks like that lead for the PCs is becoming quite insurmountable.

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:
this is an embarrassment to the Liberals.

How so? They look to be holding their 2010 percentage, it is the NDP that has vaulted up and the PCs which are down. Given the numbers, it looks as if the Liberal vote held whereas there is a straight-line switchover from the PCs to the NDP.

Aristotleded24

Cardy is trailing by about 10 percentage points, is in third place, and only a few polls remain. I think it is now safe to call this one for the PCs.

Wilf Day

Party  2010; 2012
PC 3,372; 1,625
Lib 1,690; 1,328
NDP 534; 1,158
Green 357; 69
Ind NA; 62
The Green collapse is interesting, and no doubt went partly to Cardy while many stayed home. Every party's vote dropped but his.
Quite a respectable result for a well-off suburb.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:
this is an embarrassment to the Liberals.

How so? They look to be holding their 2010 percentage, it is the NDP that has vaulted up and the PCs which are down. Given the numbers, it looks as if the Liberal vote held whereas there is a straight-line switchover from the PCs to the NDP.

How so?  as the official opposition, the Liberals should have been able to take this by-election.  Instead, all they managed to do was hold their ground.  It was almost as bad for them as it was for the PC's, and it will make it much harder for the Liberals to present themselves as the ONLY alternative to the PC's next time.

Cardy also more than doubled the NDP's actual raw vote total from the 2010 general election result in the riding, even with the usual dramatic decline in voter turnout compared to the general election.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Change in percentage share of the vote for each party from 2010:

 

     2010             2012

PC     56.57%      38.3%

Lib     28.40%      31.3%

NDP      8.97%     27.3%

Green   6.05%       1.6%

Ind      NA             1.5%

janfromthebruce

thanks for showing the vote share in comparison with raw and also percentage numbers. Cardy did very well as a parachut candidate in a tough riding.

Caissa

New Democratic Party Leader Dominic Cardy says his byelection defeat in Rothesay on Monday shows his party needs to continue modernizing.

Cardy dramatically increased the NDP's share of the vote in Rothesay but he still finished third behind the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals.

Cardy was hoping to become the first New Democrat to sit in the legislature in seven years.

The NDP leader earned about 28 per cent of the vote, which he said was a huge improvement over the eight per cent the party won in the southern New Brunswick riding in the 2010 election.

"My goal as NDP leader is to make sure our party can take government. And this was a first shot for us to try out our new campaign techniques," he said.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/26/nb-rothesay...

Ippurigakko

looks like PC swing to NDP (+18 pp) - PC lose point -18%

 

Am i only think Dominic Cardy looks like Bob Rae? lol

Pages