2018 Polls

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Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture
2018 Polls

A continuation thread, now that we've escaped from 2017.

R.E.Wood

More bad results for the NDP and Singh (who is the "preferred PM choice" of only 8% of Canadians):

Ballot – The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Liberals at 37.9 per cent support, followed by the Conservatives at 34.4 per cent, the NDP at 17.3 percent, the BQ at 3.7 per cent and the Greens at 6.0 per cent.

Accessible Voters – Asked whether they would consider voting for each of the federal parties, 53.1 per cent of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal while 46.8 per cent would consider voting Conservative. Four in ten Canadians (34.8%) would consider voting NDP while 28.6 per cent and 27.6 per cent of Canadians would consider voting for the BQ and Green parties respectively.

Preferred Prime Minister – Nanos tracking has Trudeau as the preferred choice as PM at 43.1 per cent of Canadians followed by Scheer (22.5%), Singh (8.0%) and May (5.9%). Eighteen per cent of Canadians were unsure who they preferred.

Qualities of a Good Political Leader – Six in ten Canadians (61.9%) believe Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader while 36.9 per cent believe Scheer has the qualities of a good political leader. One in three Canadians (32.0%) say Jagmeet Singh has the qualities of a good political leader, while 34.7 per cent believe the same about May. One in four (27.3%) said Martine Ouellet has the qualities of a good political leader (QC only).

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2018/01/23/liberals-38-conservatives-3...

josh

Doesn't matter.  His wedding is going to be mahvelous.  A fashionista must.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

josh wrote:

Doesn't matter.  His wedding is going to be mahvelous.  A fashionista must.

Should the media film the wedding as well for the 11:00 news?

 

Pondering

josh wrote:

Doesn't matter.  His wedding is going to be mahvelous.  A fashionista must.

After Trudeau was elected a woman wrote an article apologizing for not voting for him. On election night when she saw him with his family she realised that they are like her family, his kids wore t-shirts like hers do. Naive, but she assumes that because his family looks like hers that he will have the same attitude and values. The Liberals and Conservatives don't turn their noses up and sneer, they try to get those votes.

People make all sorts of assumptions based on Singh wearing a turban. A turban means "not like us". When he speaks he becomes more "like us".  Getting married makes him more "like us".  It will also bring him positive media attention. It will be covered by "The Social" and they will be sure to refer to his impeccable wardrobe and show various clips of him. 

To get people to listen to policy you have to get their attention first. Swing voters that decide the election don't pay attention to politics between elections. Only headlines get lots of attention and even bill C 51 which people were very strongly against was forgotten come election time. 

A lot of people get the impression that the political left sneers at them. 

josh

Assuming that's true--I guess you've canvassed a "lot of people" who feel that the political left "sneers" at them--a fashionista wedding is the best way to connect with them?   Wouldn't that just be more sneering?  We have superior fashion sense and you don't?

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Pondering wrote:

josh wrote:

Doesn't matter.  His wedding is going to be mahvelous.  A fashionista must.

After Trudeau was elected a woman wrote an article apologizing for not voting for him. On election night when she saw him with his family she realised that they are like her family, his kids wore t-shirts like hers do. Naive, but she assumes that because his family looks like hers that he will have the same attitude and values. The Liberals and Conservatives don't turn their noses up and sneer, they try to get those votes.

People make all sorts of assumptions based on Singh wearing a turban. A turban means "not like us". When he speaks he becomes more "like us".  Getting married makes him more "like us".  It will also bring him positive media attention. It will be covered by "The Social" and they will be sure to refer to his impeccable wardrobe and show various clips of him. 

To get people to listen to policy you have to get their attention first. Swing voters that decide the election don't pay attention to politics between elections. Only headlines get lots of attention and even bill C 51 which people were very strongly against was forgotten come election time. 

A lot of people get the impression that the political left sneers at them. 

Maybe Jagmeet Singh should also have a red carpet coverage for his wedding as well?

It was Tom Mulcair who said he was "National Geographic running against Vanity Fair" that being Justin Trudeau.

Pondering

Mighty Middle wrote:

Maybe Jagmeet Singh should also have a red carpet coverage for his wedding as well?

It was Tom Mulcair who said he was "National Geographic running against Vanity Fair" that being Justin Trudeau.

He will have as much coverage as he will allow which I don't think will be a lot. 

I like Mulcair's reference. 

brookmere

Pondering wrote:
He will have as much coverage as he will allow which I don't think will be a lot.
Let's hope not a lot. He has already had, at his own initiative, more coverage of his engagement than any Canadian politician I can remember. The last party leader to get married while holding that position, who I'm pretty sure was Pierre Trudeau, didn't even announce his wedding in advance.

SocialJustice101

If flair helps to get more people interested in politics, more power to it.   It's a shame when people are more interested in the Royal Family than in politics of their own country.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

SocialJustice101 wrote:

If flair helps to get more people interested in politics, more power to it.   It's a shame when people are more interested in the Royal Family than in politics of their own country.

As  Karl Nerenberg wrote

Trying to match Trudeau and the Liberals in image politics would also be pointless. Trudeau's brand of "peopleization" cannot be created by image specialists and spin doctors. It is a kind of mysterious alchemy that just somehow happens.

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/karl-nerenberg/2014/09/ndp-fights-trudea...

Pondering

Mighty Middle wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

If flair helps to get more people interested in politics, more power to it.   It's a shame when people are more interested in the Royal Family than in politics of their own country.

As  Karl Nerenberg wrote

Trying to match Trudeau and the Liberals in image politics would also be pointless. Trudeau's brand of "peopleization" cannot be created by image specialists and spin doctors. It is a kind of mysterious alchemy that just somehow happens.

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/karl-nerenberg/2014/09/ndp-fights-trudea...

Singh has his own attributes that Trudeau has nothing to do with.  Singh is what Trudeau only appears to be. 

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Pondering wrote:

Singh has his own attributes that Trudeau has nothing to do with.  Singh is what Trudeau only appears to be. 

By lifting Trudeau entire playbook from 2013 - 2015?

Pondering

Mighty Middle wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Singh has his own attributes that Trudeau has nothing to do with.  Singh is what Trudeau only appears to be. 

By lifting Trudeau entire playbook from 2013 - 2015?

No. Trudeau used a similar path but he didn't invent it. It's not "The Trudeau method". It would be stupid for him to do the wrong things just to be different from Trudeau. He will prove that with his platform choices. Once he attacks Trudeau's policies there will be no mistake that he is his own man.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Doesn't matter.  His wedding is going to be mahvelous.  A fashionista must.

If he has a traditional Sikh wedding, here's basically what to expect.  Probably don't expect Karl Lagerfeld, or a bespoke Armani suit.

Quote:
He has already had, at his own initiative, more coverage of his engagement than any Canadian politician I can remember.

Which Canadian politicians are you remembering, specifically?

I remember a news photo of Peter McKay, comforting himself with his dogs on a lonely, windswept afternoon after Belinda Stronach pushed him to the curb.  I'm not saying that was the most important news of the day, but people seem to like their politicians to have a normal, human side.  So?

Quote:
It's a shame when people are more interested in the Royal Family than in politics of their own country.

It's also a shame if they're more angry about the Royal family than interested in the politics of their own country.  Wearing a fancy designer dress isn't the politics.  Having a driver and a car isn't the politics.  Being on TV isn't the politics.

If being all absorbed by Singh's (or Trudeau's, or Gregoire's, or the Royal family's) clothes is proof that some are shallow and have lost sight of the big picture then I'm sorry to say that being just as absorbed -- except to complain about! -- Trudeau's (or Singh's, or the Royal family's) clothes is also is proof that some are shallow and have lost sight of the big picture.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Mr. Magoo wrote:

If being all absorbed by Singh's (or Trudeau's, or Gregoire's, or the Royal family's) clothes is proof that some are shallow and have lost sight of the big picture then I'm sorry to say that being just as absorbed -- except to complain about! -- Trudeau's (or Singh's, or the Royal family's) clothes is also is proof that some are shallow and have lost sight of the big picture.

I guess some NDPers are feeling that "the end justifies the means" by seeking publicity to bring attention to the party and its policies.
 

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
I guess some NDPers are feeling that "the end justifies the means" by seeking publicity to bring attention to the party and its policies.

Ya, I'm sure everyone's going to vote for Singh because he's the first politician to get married.  Well played, NDP.

Pondering

Mighty Middle wrote:

Mr. Magoo wrote:

If being all absorbed by Singh's (or Trudeau's, or Gregoire's, or the Royal family's) clothes is proof that some are shallow and have lost sight of the big picture then I'm sorry to say that being just as absorbed -- except to complain about! -- Trudeau's (or Singh's, or the Royal family's) clothes is also is proof that some are shallow and have lost sight of the big picture.

I guess some NDPers are feeling that "the end justifies the means" by seeking publicity to bring attention to the party and its policies.

That suggests there is something wrong with the means. There isn't. He isn't lying or misrepresenting himself. I'm sure he isn't getting married for the publicity. He is just letting Canadians get to know him. That's a good thing. Three recent politicians failed at that. Dion, Ignatieff and Mulcair although Mulcair tried. If good policy earned the job Dion or Layton would have had it. If it were qualifications Dion, Layton, Ignatieff and Mulcair should have been winners. 

We all know the turban he wears is an extra challenge but the way to surmount it is for people to get to know him, like him and trust him. Then the turban will be not be a barrier. Bonus, he is dispelling misconceptions people have about people who wear turbans and other non-western clothing. 

I just thought "when he speaks to me" as though he has actually spoken to me. In a youtube video he speaks of precarious employment and having supported his family from a young age. He said something to the effect that if employment is a hobby precarious is fine but if you need employment to put a roof over your head and to feed a family it is not okay. This is in relation to his talking about "us" and "them".  How Trudeau and his class lives by a different set of rules. I feel like he is speaking to me because he reflects my experience of life, of needing a job for food and rent. He is right, Trudeau and Monreau don't need jobs. It is a "hobby" to them. If Trudeau were to go back on the speaker's circuit he could get away with working a day or two a year. He effectively made himself part of "us" and Trudeau part of the "other".  I expect Moreau's comment on getting used to precarious employment will be highlighted in the campaign and he is going to make Trudeau own it. 

I don't expect a very radical platform from Singh. He has to stay mainstream enough to get elected. He only has to get that one message through. He is on our side and they aren't. 

 

NorthReport

Once again Singh’s NDP hit 20% in latest poll out today

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Latest polling from Nanos (January 22 – 26, 2018)

Liberals - 37.8%

Conservatives - 30.6%

NDP – 19.9%

Green - 7.5%

Bloc - 3.5%

Preferred Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau – 40.8%

Andrew Scheer - 22.1%

Jagmeet Singh - 8.3%

Elizabeth May – 5.8%

Qualities of a Good Political Leader

Justin Trudeau – 61.6%

Elizabeth May - 36.7%

Andrew Scheer - 35.8%

Jagmeet Singh – 33.6%

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Political-Package-2018-01...

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
I guess some NDPers are feeling that "the end justifies the means" by seeking publicity to bring attention to the party and its policies.

He could also have put the word out through the SSUNTB (Super-Secret Underground Network of True Believers).  Did he even bother trying that?  Or did he just jump straight to a happy story in a national newspaper?

R.E.Wood

A new Forum poll shows Conservatives in the lead:

Con 43%

Lib 38%

NDP 12%

Green 3%

Bloc 3%

Bozinoff  said if an election were held on the date of this poll, we would expect to see a Conservative majority of 181 seats, with the Liberals serving as official opposition with 142. The NDP would secure 14 and the Green Party would hold their seat. The BQ would not win a seat.

http://torontosun.com/news/national/scheer-leading-conservatives-gaining...

SocialJustice101

I would take Forum's polls with a large grain of salt.  They use IVR, the same polling technique as was used by Mainstreet Research in the Calgary election.    Mainstreet were off by more than 20 points on the final result of the election.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

If Forum is only polling people with landlines, that demo is 99% Conservative supporters.

josh
NorthReport

Let’s not be too naive about sophisticated pollsters particularly ones like Forum with their Liberal Party connections. The reason this strong Conservative support with weak NDP support may be published could be to encourage voters who don’t want the Conservatives elected to rally to and support the Liberals.  Call it scare tactics if you will.

NorthReport

dp

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Let’s not be too naive about sophisticated pollsters particularly ones like Forum with their Liberal Party connections.

They are actually in bed with the Conservatives as they appear in Toronto Sun (exclusively!) and CP24 (regular mouth piece for the PC Party)

jerrym

Mighty Middle wrote:

 

They are actually in bed with the Conservatives as they appear in Toronto Sun (exclusively!) and CP24 (regular mouth piece for the PC Party)

Speaking of regular mouthpieces ---------

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

jerrym wrote:

Speaking of regular mouthpieces ---------

Is that a question or a statement?

NorthReport

Terrytowel

you may have changed your handle but you haven’t changed

And no they are not supporters of the Conservatives

this was all researched here years ago when Forum first surfaced

Check out their employee connections and relationships with the Liberal Party before mouthing off  nonsensities  like this

 

Mighty Middle wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Let’s not be too naive about sophisticated pollsters particularly ones like Forum with their Liberal Party connections.

They are actually in bed with the Conservatives as they appear in Toronto Sun (exclusively!) and CP24 (regular mouth piece for the PC Party)

SocialJustice101

Forum Research polls are always used to drive the narrative of the Toronto Sun and other Postmedia progadanda machines that the Trudeau Liberals are "failing."  I'd be very surprised if the Liberals are behind Forum Research.

Cody87

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Forum Research polls are always used to drive the narrative of the Toronto Sun and other Postmedia progadanda machines that the Trudeau Liberals are "failing."  I'd be very surprised if the Liberals are behind Forum Research.

Not trying to pull a Mr. Magoo here, but would you say the Trudeau Liberals are "succeeding?"

SocialJustice101

Compared to Harper, they are an improvement.   It's like comparing Bush/Trump to Obama.  Who would you say has succeeded?   Rachel Notley?  Bob Rae?

Cody87

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Compared to Harper, they are an improvement.   It's like comparing Bush/Trump to Obama.  Who would you say has succeeded?   Rachel Notley?  Bob Rae?

Saying "compared to the worst PM we've had in decades, he's not that bad" is a low measure of success.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Saying "compared to the worst PM we've had in decades, he's not that bad" is a low measure of success.

Saying "it was -23C yesterday, but it's only -4C today" is a low measure of warmth. 

I'll take what I can get.

SocialJustice101

Which Canadian leader, federal or provincial, not including leaders of opposition,  is the gold standard for progressive politics?

Aristotleded24

SocialJustice101 wrote:
Which Canadian leader, federal or provincial, not including leaders of opposition,  is the gold standard for progressive politics?

T C Douglas

SocialJustice101

Touche.  Too bad Saskatchewan has come so far from his vision today, becoming a Con stronghold.

NorthReport

And second - Barrett perhaps?

Aristotleded24 wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:
Which Canadian leader, federal or provincial, not including leaders of opposition,  is the gold standard for progressive politics?

T C Douglas

SocialJustice101

And now the real poll from Nanos, released today, Feb 6, 2018:

Lib 38%, Con 30%, NDP 20%, Green 8%, BQ 3%

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Political-Package-2018-02-02.pdf

So everybody take a deep breath.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Check out their employee connections and relationships with the Liberal Party before mouthing off  nonsensities  like this

Link please

SocialJustice101

Nanos Research Poll, Released Feb 13/2018:

Lib 38%, Con 30%, NDP 19%, Green 9%, BQ 3%

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Political-Package-2018-02-09.pdf

 

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Compared to Harper, they are an improvement.   It's like comparing Bush/Trump to Obama.  Who would you say has succeeded?   Rachel Notley?  Bob Rae?

Compared to Harper, Trudeau is a HUGE improvement. But the worst PM of my lifetime is unquestionably Brian Mulroney.He's the one who sold us down the river.Chretien would be my second choice. He promised to kill the GST and NAFTA deal. Instead he extended it.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

alan smithee wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Compared to Harper, they are an improvement.   It's like comparing Bush/Trump to Obama.  Who would you say has succeeded?   Rachel Notley?  Bob Rae?

Compared to Harper, Trudeau is a HUGE improvement. But the worst PM of my lifetime is unquestionably Brian Mulroney.He's the one who sold us down the river.Chretien would be my second choice. He promised to kill the GST and NAFTA deal. Instead he extended it.

Leaving out Kim Campbell and John Turner , neither of whom had sufficient time in office to count, we have had a string of really bad PM's. Trudeau, Mulroney, Chretien, Martin, Harper and Trudeau. It is apparent that Liberal/Tory same old story is as true today as it was when Mouseland was first made. Its really hard to tell from the list of PM's which group of voters command the most attention in Canada.

Trudeau began the dismantling of our social safety net in the early '80's and every single PM since has been following the same trend. As far as the average family is concerned I suspect that Martin's cuts had a far greater effect than Harper's. Harper's were meaner and nastier because their was nothing left to cut that hadn't already been decimated by Chretien and Martin. 

So I would award the throne of worst PM to Paul Martin. He gets the nod because he was the brains behind Chetien's cuts as well as his own. That elitist from old money Montreal is the single biggest villian in the tale of Canadians losing our mixed economy with a vibrant social safety net.

Hunky_Monkey

Reality is most Canadians still don't know who Singh is.  I'm not surprised we're still hovering around 20%.  That would be the case had any of the other candidates been elected.  Possibly less than around 20% actually.  It takes time and often at least one national election campaign for people to get to "know" you.  Trudeau of course was unique due to his last name and history.

So sadly for R.E. Wood, I doubt Angus would be at the top of any poll had he won the leadership.

I think Singh is doing the proper groundwork now.  That's important.  I just hope his team are able to focus on some key issues for the next election that will resonate with everyday voters.  Trudeau's PR campaign of pretending to be a progressive has worked with many voters.  Leaves the NDP in a tough position to navigate to expose that falsehood that doesn't turn people off and to speak to bread and butter issues that drives a lot of voters to the polls.  One area... one... is healthcare.  It's in crisis right across this country.  People are more concerned about not having a family doctor than they are about a national prescription drug program.  And while important, it doesn't drive people to the polls.  Same goes for harping on electoral reform.  It's useful to paint Trudeau as a liar but it can't be a central campaign plank.  

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

kropotkin1951 wrote:

alan smithee wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Compared to Harper, they are an improvement.   It's like comparing Bush/Trump to Obama.  Who would you say has succeeded?   Rachel Notley?  Bob Rae?

Compared to Harper, Trudeau is a HUGE improvement. But the worst PM of my lifetime is unquestionably Brian Mulroney.He's the one who sold us down the river.Chretien would be my second choice. He promised to kill the GST and NAFTA deal. Instead he extended it.

Leaving out Kim Campbell and John Turner , neither of whom had sufficient time in office to count, we have had a string of really bad PM's. Trudeau, Mulroney, Chretien, Martin, Harper and Trudeau. It is apparent that Liberal/Tory same old story is as true today as it was when Mouseland was first made. Its really hard to tell from the list of PM's which group of voters command the most attention in Canada.

Trudeau began the dismantling of our social safety net in the early '80's and every single PM since has been following the same trend. As far as the average family is concerned I suspect that Martin's cuts had a far greater effect than Harper's. Harper's were meaner and nastier because their was nothing left to cut that hadn't already been decimated by Chretien and Martin. 

So I would award the throne of worst PM to Paul Martin. He gets the nod because he was the brains behind Chetien's cuts as well as his own. That elitist from old money Montreal is the single biggest villian in the tale of Canadians losing our mixed economy with a vibrant social safety net.

Well the bar was set very low for Trudeau to come across as very superior to Harper. I'd put Harper in my top 3. But I forgot about Martin . I'm just not sure if he was a worse PM than a Finance Minister. Certainly not the cream of the crop.

Trudeau 1.0 did some good things IF you can look passed the War Measures Act. I guess it depends on one's point of view. My francophone friends hate Justin Trudeau because of his father for the most part.

I think when PET looked at himself in the mirror in the early 80's, he couldn't live with the way he  had to govern at that point. That's probably why he had his long walk in the snow episode.

Turner was insignificant and forgetable and Kim Campbell,at the time, was billed as the female version of Mulroney hence the absolute destruction of that party in '93. I've seen her on American TV a few times in the very recent past and she came across as a progressive. Too bad she didn't govern that way. She may have won the election in 1993.

So my list would be 1) Brian Mulroney (2) Jean Chrétien (3) Stephen Harper but with an asterix. He was the most right wing PM of my lifetime. I was not around for Pearson or Diefenbaker so I can't make an accurate opinion. I think MacKenzie King and Robert Borden were pretty terrible Prime Ministers too. But that was long before I was a sperm.

NorthReport

Latest poll shows NDP with 20.3% support. This is the first time the NDP has broken through the 20% mark in support in several months, and might be a sign of some good news ahead for the Singh-led NDP. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_feder...

SocialJustice101

Latest Nanos, including data up to Feb 23/2018:

Lib 38%, Con 32%, NDP 19%, Green 7%, BQ 4%

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Political-Package-2018-02-23.pdf

SocialJustice101

Nanos Research poll released today, March 6, 2018:

Lib 37%, Con 33%, NDP 19%, Green 7%, BQ 4%

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Political-Package-2018-03-02.pdf

NorthReport

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