2018 Polls

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Cody87

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
What, are we supposed to believe that 45-65 year old males who make 60-80 make up 23% of the population? What a joke.

Are you talking about the population?

Or respondents?

I was talking population, because of the implicit assumption that an established pollster would adjust their sample to reflect the population. They obviously didn't do that in this case, if one specific demographic alone (45-65 y/o men who make 60k-80k) is carrying 23% of the total vote (half of the Cons supposed 46% is from this demographic).

NorthReport

Nanos and Forum were probably herding! Who knew!

Can we trust Canadian polls?

Notice that the 1.92% is for the poll average. If you look at individual polls, it'll be worse in general (they are few exceptions where a single poll would do better than the average such as the Nanos and Forum polls for the federal election in 2015).

 

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/05/can-we-trust-canadian-polls.html

SocialJustice101

Forum Research have disgraced themselves in numerous elections, as I already explained above.   They are also using a discredited IVR polling method.

Nanos is the only traditional pollster left and their record has been impeccable so far.

NorthReport

You have explained nothing

You have however provided us with your opinion

SocialJustice101

The following information is not my opinion.  It's just the publicly available numbers.  Read Forum's own release about incoming Wildrose majority on the day before the election. 

http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/40010_Alberta_Issues_Poll_%28Forum_Research%29_%2820120422%29.pdf

Forum Research Poll on Apr 22, 2012:  Wildrose 38%, PC 36%, NDP 12%, Lib 10%

Alberta Election Results on Apr 23, 2012: Wildrose 34%, PC 44%, NDP 10%, Lib 10%

Forum's reported margin of error: 3.1%

Forum's actual error: 14%

 

SocialJustice101

But I guess in NR's view, everything is an opinion and everyone is engaged in propaganda.   Not everyone is exactly like you, NR.

NorthReport

You have been sharing your erroneous opinions that Nanos is the only Pollster worth following which is utter nonsense.

Nanos has completely blown it on the Ontario election, and federally in 2015 they were out of it, until their final poll, as discussed today on the tooclosetocall website. Nanos probably were herding which you have not taken into consideration. 

All pollsters claim their polls are the most accurate and they take turns being the closest or furtherest away to the actual results.  

SocialJustice101

Nice job completely ignoring the facts about Forum Research, which is unsurprisingly your favorite pollster.  I suppose they play right into your "truth is an opinion" mentality.

You're making no sense on Nanos.   First of all, the Ontario election has not happened yet.   Secondly, you are comparing newest Ontario polls to a Nanos poll which was released 2 weeks ago, but was actually completed 3 weeks ago.     It's also not surprising at all that OLP voters would be less likely to "volunteer" for online polls and IVR polls.  

As for the last Federal Election, Nanos was spot on and they had the Liberals leading 18 days before the election.     And it was still the only live telephone pollster.   Other pollsters, which are online or IVR, were likely "weighting" their raw data in accordance with an actual pollster.

And didn't we already address your often repeated argument about pollsters' claims?   Focus on the numbers, not on marketing material.

JKR

SocialJustice101 wrote:

But I guess in NR's view, everything is an opinion and everyone is engaged in propaganda.   Not everyone is exactly like you, NR.

Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
- Daniel Patrick Moynihan

NorthReport

My hunch is that a shift is going on federally, that the Forum poll might be an indication of it, and that progressives might want to consider toning down their absurd criticisms of Singh that is if they wish to prevent the Conservatives from forming government next year

SocialJustice101

Forum has been a significant outlier in favor of the Cons since January, and that has not changed.   Just look at the first page of this very thread.   Considering Forum's major embarrassements in past elections, I wouldn't make any predictions based on their polls. 

While the media coverage of the Ontario election is bound to have some impact on the federal numbers, I doubt it will still be there in 2019.

NorthReport

Nanos 

Cons 36%

Libs 33%

NDP 20%

 

SocialJustice101

Nanos on CTV

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/tories-top-liberals-in-latest-nanos-federal-ballot-tracking-1.3948961

"When the numbers start turning in Ontario, because it is the biggest part of the subsample, they move the national numbers," said Nanos.

In Ontario

  • Liberal 33.3
  • Conservative 41.4
  • NDP 21.4

NorthReport

Everyone is aware that Trudeau has been stumbling. India, Kinder Morgan, etc. And the Nanos polls are just reflecting it.   

SocialJustice101

Despite NR's sudden enthusiasm about Nanos polls, there's nothing great about that poll for the NDP, nor for the progressives a whole.    

So the Ontario election had a effect on federal polling, who knew?   Is that a political shift that's going to last until 2019, or it is just a reflection of the Ontario media coverage?     I suspect it's the latter.    Much like the "India debacle", it's a reflection of the media coverage looking back at you.

NorthReport

Best thing to do when you are wrong, is to admit it.

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Forum has been a significant outlier in favor of the Cons since January, and that has not changed.   Just look at the first page of this very thread.   Considering Forum's major embarrassements in past elections, I wouldn't make any predictions based on their polls. 

While the media coverage of the Ontario election is bound to have some impact on the federal numbers, I doubt it will still be there in 2019.

SocialJustice101

India and Kinder Morgan will not really move anyone's vote, and neither will the Ontario election.  Even if Ford wins, his honey moon will be over real fast, once nothing gets done under his watch.

SocialJustice101

I completely stand by my statement on Forum Research.    I've been saying all along that the Ontario election will have some impact on the federal polling numbers.  But that has no connection with the outlier polls Forum has been producing since January.   They remain outliers today.

As for Nanos, the 3% Con lead is within the margin of error, and does not come remotely close to Forum's numbers.   

josh

NR suddenly is citing Nanos.  Because his rule is that polls that show Liberals behind are valid polls.  Polls that show ahead are inherently biased.

SocialJustice101

Yes, and apparently the India trip and the Ontario provincial election are fundamental issues which will decide the federal election in Oct 2019.

NorthReport

Nanos

Party / Oct 6 '17 / May 28 ' 18 / Difference

Cons / 32% / 36% / Up 4%

Libs 36.9% / 33% / Down 3.9%

NDP / 15.4% / 20% / Up 4.6%

 

SocialJustice101

I doubt we'll see NorthReport posting any Nanos polls after the Ontario Election.    It'll be back to Forum and Mainstreet, the 2 most discredited pollsters in Canada.

Mighty Middle

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I doubt we'll see NorthReport posting any Nanos polls after the Ontario Election.    It'll be back to Forum and Mainstreet, the 2 most discredited pollsters in Canada.

Watch for Forum and Mainstreet to have the federal NDP in second (behind the Conservatives and ahead of the Liberals) just like in they had in the Ontario election weeks prior to the writ being dropped.

The momentum for the NDP was kicked off in part by Forum and Mainstreet having the NDP in second, thus creating the media narrative that the NDP is only party to stop Ford. But all it will do is split the vote and allow Ford to come up the middle and win.

Which is what Forum and Mainstreet wanted all along.

SocialJustice101

Preferred Prime Minister from the latest Nanos Poll:

Trudeau 36%, Scheer 25%, Singh 8%, May 7%

Page 3 of http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Political-Package-2018-05-25.pdf

If Trudeau is outpolling his party, that means the Liberal brand was somewhat damaged by media coverage of the Ontario election campaign.   Furthermore, some poll respondents probably don`t differentiate between federal and provincial politics.   I suspect this is a temporary effect, much like the effect caused by media coverage of the India trip.  

josh

Mighty Middle wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I doubt we'll see NorthReport posting any Nanos polls after the Ontario Election.    It'll be back to Forum and Mainstreet, the 2 most discredited pollsters in Canada.

Watch for Forum and Mainstreet to have the federal NDP in second (behind the Conservatives and ahead of the Liberals) just like in they had in the Ontario election weeks prior to the writ being dropped.

The momentum for the NDP was kicked off in part by Forum and Mainstreet having the NDP in second, thus creating the media narrative that the NDP is only party to stop Ford. But all it will do is split the vote and allow Ford to come up the middle and win.

Which is what Forum and Mainstreet wanted all along.

Live by the polls, die by the polls.  The shoe's now on the other foot.  Liberals are the spoilers in Ontario.  You can either rail at the polls or get behind the party with the best chance to deny Ford the premiership.

Mighty Middle

josh wrote:

Live by the polls, die by the polls.  The shoe's now on the other foot.  Liberals are the spoilers in Ontario.  You can either rail at the polls or get behind the party with the best chance to deny Ford the premiership.

and I can pull out half dozens articles that are on this site (babble) right now that has offered data that strategic voting doesn't work.

SocialJustice101

Honestly, I'm ready to vote ONDP, but I'm concerned that they have a non-existant campaign in my Toronto riding.   Only the PC candidate showed up at my door and I got a flyer from the OLP.   Absolutely nothing yet from the ONDP, 10 days before the election day.   The only lawn signs I've seen are PC.    Party names are not indicated on Ontario election ballots.    Will everyone even bother to look up their NDP candidate??  I've got a bad feeling about this.....

Mighty Middle

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Honestly, I'm ready to vote ONDP, but I'm concerned that they have a non-existant campaign in my Toronto riding.   Only the PC candidate showed up at my door and I got a flyer from the OLP.   Absolutely nothing yet from the ONDP, 10 days before the election day.   The only lawn signs I've seen are PC.    Party names are not indicated on Ontario election ballots.    Will everyone even bother to look up their NDP candidate??  I've got a bad feeling about this.....

Calculated Politics has the Liberals down to 10 seats (and I think they are being generous). You can look on this interactive map to see how the parties break down, riding by riding

http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/

 

NorthReport

But, but...... how can that be!

FollowFollow @Dleebosh

More

Derek Leebosh Retweeted Innovative Research Group

Fascinating research here. A live interviewer phone poll has virtually identical results to an online panel poll - CATI NDP 37%, PC 34%, OLP 21%. Online NDP 36%, PC 34% and OLP 22%. How do you like that

Derek Leebosh added,

Innovative Research Group @InnovativeRG

(THREAD) #onpoli 1/ A new INNOVATIVE telephone survey (conducted from May 23rd to May 29th) shows the NDP leading in the Ontario election with 37% of the decided vote followed closely by the PC party at 34%. Click here for the full report: …

Show this thread

https://twitter.com/Dleebosh/status/1001940113167929350

SocialJustice101

Good for Innovative Research for being able to assemle a representative online panel.   A significant portion of the electorate is simply not online or would not participate in on-line polls, as confirmed by multiple past blunders of on-line pollsters.   Live telephone pollsters just don't have the same spotty performance records as on-line and IVR pollsters do.

I'm not saying it's impossible to have a representative online sample, but it's less likely than live telephone polling.    

Some pollsters, such as Forum and Mainstreet, have particularly bad records, but they are usually IVR, i.e. automated calling.

SocialJustice101

The ONDP better hope Forum Research is bogus as usual, as today they have Ford pulling ahead again 39% to NDP's 35%, which is apparently down from 47% in their previous outlier poll.

bekayne

SocialJustice101 wrote:

The ONDP better hope Forum Research is bogus as usual, as today they have Ford pulling ahead again 39% to NDP's 35%, which is apparently down from 47% in their previous outlier poll.

Their next poll will have Andrew Scheer leading the Ontario election.

SocialJustice101

Today's Nanos Research Data Tracker Update (June 4, 2018):

Lib 34.09%

Con 34.03%

NDP 21.20%

https://tinyurl.com/y7srwskl

Pondering

Nice seeing the NDP numbers recovering. Looks like it is coming at the expense of the Liberals. The pipeline purchase could be hurting him.

SocialJustice101

But not as much as the Ontario election, I suspect.

SocialJustice101

June 11, 2018 Nanos Research Data Tracker Update:

Lib: 35.26%

Con: 32.97%

NDP: 21.96%

https://tinyurl.com/y7srwskl

NorthReport

With such a terrible leader according to so many here at babble, the Singh-led NDP remarkably is at 22%, and within 13% of the Liberals.

So who is wrong, the NDP critics here, or Nanos?

SocialJustice101

Nanos will release a full report tomorrow, I think.   It will contain "Best PM" numbers.   We'll see how well Singh does.   Keep in mind that this poll is a actually a week old, before the Ontario election took place.  

NorthReport

So who is wrong?

Nanos, or the NDP critics here, or both?

SocialJustice101

The NDP brand got a boost from the Ontario election as the only opposition to Ford.   It's unlikely to be connected to Jagmeet Singh.

bekayne

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Nanos will release a full report tomorrow, I think.   It will contain "Best PM" numbers.   We'll see how well Singh does.   Keep in mind that this poll is a actually a week old, before the Ontario election took place.  

The Best PM numbers are on the second page. It won't be until next week's poll that shows the full impact of Trump.

josh

NorthReport wrote:

So who is wrong?

Nanos, or the NDP critics here, or both?

You.

cco

NorthReport wrote:

So who is wrong?

Nanos, or the NDP critics here, or both?

Those who think 22% is a great position for the NDP.

gadar

SocialJustice101 wrote:

June 11, 2018 Nanos Research Data Tracker Update:

Lib: 35.26%

Con: 32.97%

NDP: 21.96%

https://tinyurl.com/y7srwskl

Fake news.

The real numbers are 

Cons 40

NDP 28

Libs 26

Others 6

NDP is ahead of Libs. And thats the only thing that matters. Jagmeet should start picking his shadow cabinet.

(dont look at the Con 40 as it doesnt even matter that they will have a majority govt. As I dont want you to look at that, since thats what I am truly cheering for)

NDP OFFICIAL OPPOSITION BABY

gadar

A recession, because of Trudeau? The shine is coming off. Watch the Liberals getting wiped off the map after the recession hits and NDP will stand to gain. Here comes Jagmeet

http://torontosun.com/news/national/watch-trump-vs-trudeau-will-our-tarr...

voice of the damned

gadar wrote:

Watch the Liberals getting wiped off the map after the recession hits and NDP will stand to gain.

Why would it neccessarily be the NDP gaining in the event of a recession?

 

gadar
gadar

Only a matter of time that the colossal marijuana fail starts reflecting in the polls. Employers are not ready for legalization. Get used to the sound of Prime Minister Singh.

http://vancouversun.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/many-employers-not-...

NorthReport

22% for the NDP That's the highest Nanos has had the NDP since prior to the last election. Yea, Singh must be a dud for this to happen!

Go Jagmeet Go!

gadar

NorthReport wrote:

22% for the NDP That's the highest Nanos has had the NDP since prior to the last election. Yea, Singh must be a dud for this to happen!

Go Jagmeet Go!

If nanos says it is 22,its probably close to 32. Official opposition numbers, and there is still time to 2019. 

Ladies and gentlemen your next Prime Minister Jagmeet Singh

Sweet

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