2018 Polls

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SocialJustice101

Mr. Magoo wrote:

IMHO, perhaps the strangest thing about Dion and Ignatieff is that they were both pretty accomplished individuals who nevertheless failed to launch.

And meanwhile we've got Doug "I can make stickers" Ford looking at potentially governing the most populous province by virtue of having the same parents as Toronto's arguably most unfit Mayor.  Huh.

Politics is a sales job.  It's not totally surprising that car-salesman types can be better at connecting with low-information voters.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Politics is a sales job.  It's not totally surprising that car-salesman types can be better at connecting with low-information voters.

I don't really disagree.  The only funny part, IMHO, is that I think that if you asked those same voters about car-salesman types, they'd say "I don't fall for their nonsense".

Pondering

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I don't think Dion was overthrown because of the coalition deal, which Liberal MPs overwhemingly supported.    Dion was very ineffective at selling the coalition.   Some polls begun showing a Con "majority" as a result.  (That's 40% FPTP majority, NOT 50%+.)  Dion was thrown out because he was bad at campaigning and bad at representing the coalition.   Both Liberal MPs and the NDP were openly embarrassed for him.   Anyone remembers his blurry video?    I still remember Liberal MPs saying they were dissappointed.   Nobody could predict that Iggy would do even worse.

Yes he was set up. No one showed up to film him for the interview. One of his aides had to do it on his phone. Talk about knee-capping  the leader.

SocialJustice101

I remember this incident being discussed on CTV.   A professional camera was used to film Dion's speech but it was out of focus.   I don't think this was necessarily sabotage.  In any case, Dion had a plenty of other opportunities to make a convincing case for the coalition, and to project professional leadership.

 

Pondering

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I remember this incident being discussed on CTV.   A professional camera was used to film Dion's speech but it was out of focus.   I don't think this was necessarily sabotage.  In any case, Dion had a plenty of other opportunities to make a convincing case for the coalition, and to project professional leadership.

The timeline (all times ET):

  • 6:15-6:30 - The Liberals miss their promised deadline to deliver Dion's statement to the television networks.
  • 6:40 - Liberals arrive with a single tape at the press gallery in Ottawa. They were supposed to deliver two tapes: one in French, one in English. They arrived with a single tape in DVD-minicam format, which is not broadcast quality.
  • Shortly after 6:40 - The Liberals decide to run back to their offices -- a block away -- because the French portion of the tape needs another edit.
  • 7:05 - Liberal staffers are still in their offices as the networks go to air with the Harper address.
  • 7:07 - Harper's statement finishes and network anchors are forced to kill time as they wait for Dion's address.
  • 7:10 to 7:15 - Liberal staffers arrive back at the press gallery on Wellington Street with a DVD-minicam player that they had taken from their own offices, along with the associated cables. There is still only one tape, not two. A press gallery official tells the Liberals that the gallery is not the feed point and an argument ensues. The Liberals ask why they weren't told that earlier. The feed point is next door at the CBC building, which is the long-established feed play point for all network pools. The Liberals are informed that they need to be walked into the building by authorized staff.
  • 7:20 - English network anchors are still live on television, wondering where the tape is. CTV has still had no communications from the Liberals about Dion's address.
  • Approximately 7:15 - CBC receives the tape and begins dubbing into French and English versions. This takes about 10 minutes.
  • 7:28 - CTV decides to go off-air and back to regular scheduled programming at 7:30. CTV has still not seen a feed of the tape.
  • 7:28 - CBC incorrectly punches out the finished feed only to their network.
  • 7:30 - CTV signs off broadcast at scheduled time.

Liberal insiders wanted Iggnatieff not Dion. They did not want a deal with Layton. Dion never had their support. He slipped up the middle between Iggy and Rae.

SocialJustice101

That timeline makes it seem like Dion's team didn't know what they were doing.    Layton had no problems defending the "majority coalition," as he put it.

As I understand, the main reason for the coalition was Harper's intend to cut-off the per-vote subsudy upon passage of the law, leaving the Cons as the only party with enough money to fight an election.  The threat of a coalition forced Harper to back down, at which point he agreed to gradually phase out the subsidy until 2015.  Whether you're in Iggy's, Rae's or Dion's camp, the party was still short on cash.   The coalition or threat thereof was necessary.

Pondering

SocialJustice101 wrote:

That timeline makes it seem like Dion's team didn't know what they were doing.    Layton had no problems defending the "majority coalition," as he put it.

As I understand, the main reason for the coalition was Harper's intend to cut-off the per-vote subsudy upon passage of the law, leaving the Cons as the only party with enough money to fight an election.  The threat of a coalition forced Harper to back down, at which point he agreed to gradually phase out the subsidy until 2015.  Whether you're in Iggy's, Rae's or Dion's camp, the party was still short on cash.   The coalition or threat thereof was necessary.

That was the catalayst. Dion and Layton's mistake was announcing their intent in advance. They should have voted non-confidence without warning Harper in advance giving him the opportunity to beg the GG to perouge government.

No money was needed for a coalition. There would be no election.

SocialJustice101

There's no guarantee that the GG would decline Harper's advice to call an election, and allow the coalition to gorvern instead.   The coalition announced their intention publicly in order to gage public support and to assure the GG that there is a government in waiting.  It's unfortunate yet not surprising that the coalition lost the media war.   Harper could afford to run anti-coalition attack ads and he was backed by corporate media.

jerrym

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Mr. Magoo wrote:

IMHO, perhaps the strangest thing about Dion and Ignatieff is that they were both pretty accomplished individuals who nevertheless failed to launch.

And meanwhile we've got Doug "I can make stickers" Ford looking at potentially governing the most populous province by virtue of having the same parents as Toronto's arguably most unfit Mayor.  Huh.

Politics is a sales job.  It's not totally surprising that car-salesman types can be better at connecting with low-information voters.

Timing also plays a large part. Bernie and Corbyn wandered in the desert of politics, listened to by only a small minority, until their messages seemed to meet the concerns of the time.

While I am not saying Bernie, Corbyn and Ford have similar messages, these messages do appeal to people who feel ripped off and abandoned by our social systems. 

 

NorthReport

Can Ontario's election tell us anything about the federal race in 2019?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-ontario-federal-elections-1.4665628

josh

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Mr. Magoo wrote:

IMHO, perhaps the strangest thing about Dion and Ignatieff is that they were both pretty accomplished individuals who nevertheless failed to launch.

And meanwhile we've got Doug "I can make stickers" Ford looking at potentially governing the most populous province by virtue of having the same parents as Toronto's arguably most unfit Mayor.  Huh.

Politics is a sales job.  It's not totally surprising that car-salesman types can be better at connecting with low-information voters.

https://goo.gl/images/uLwrP0

 

SocialJustice101

jarrym, Bernie and Corbyn did not win.  They are also not the car-salesman type I was referring to.   Quite the opposite.   They both focused on real issues, not on empty platitudes and themes.

Mighty Middle

What would happen in the Ontario election if the NDP won the most seats, but Ford's PC Party won the popular vote. And that the Ontario Liberals popular vote was so low, that Ford's PC Party had a more popular vote than the Libs & NDP combined.

Would that let Trudeau off the hook with his broken promise on Electoral Reform?

SocialJustice101

Have the PCs ever won more votes than the Libs + NDP combined?   I know this happened once on the federal level in 1984, not sure about Ontario.

In any case, I can see why the cons love FPTP.

Cody87

Mighty Middle wrote:

What would happen in the Ontario election if the NDP won the most seats, but Ford's PC Party won the popular vote. And that the Ontario Liberals popular vote was so low, that Ford's PC Party had a more popular vote than the Libs & NDP combined.

Would that let Trudeau off the hook with his broken promise on Electoral Reform?

Q: If tomorrow I check my lottery ticket and found out I won the jackpot, does that get me off the hook for going to work Tuesday?

A: It's irrelevant, because that scenario is so unlikely it's basically impossible.

Mighty Middle

Cody87 wrote:

A: It's irrelevant, because that scenario is so unlikely it's basically impossible.

People said the same about Trump being elected President of the United States. And he has proven nothing is impossible.

Cody87

Mighty Middle wrote:

Cody87 wrote:

A: It's irrelevant, because that scenario is so unlikely it's basically impossible.

People said the same about Trump being elected President of the United States. And he has proven nothing is impossible.

Plenty of people predicted Trump's victory. SeekingAPoliticalHome predicted it here in February, and I was by July. A few others, such as Sean, acknowledged the possibility.

In any case, the odds of what you are suggesting:

A) The PCs get 50%+ of the vote, or at least 50%+ of the major party vote (which is 95% of the vote)

and

B) The NDP get close to, but less than 50% of the popular vote,

and

C) The OLP gets practically nothing, such that the NDP + OLP vote totals combined is still less than the PC vote total

and

D) Despite the fact that all the OLP votes are still not enough to give the NDP more votes than the PCs, nevertheless the vote still splits in a way to give government to the NDP, not the PCs

Is just about a completely impossible outcome. And on top of you trying to pass it off as possible scenario, you then use that ridiculous scenario to ask a nonsense rhetorical question about if this would absolve Trudeau of a particular broken promise that, even if kept, wouldn't have affected the provincial level anyway.

"Oh yeah, I was fuming mad that Trudeau reneged on his promise to give us fair representation...but then the NDP won in Ontario and I'm both exceptionally short-sighted and entirely Ontario-centric so it's okay." /s

Mighty Middle

Cody87 wrote:

Plenty of people predicted Trump's victory. SeekingAPoliticalHome predicted it here in February, and I was by July. A few others, such as Sean, acknowledged the possibility.

I was referring to people who are expert on the Electoral college in the US. I think it is safe to say all the people you listed above are not experts nor studied the electoral college. While it is one thing to say "Well Trump may win" ( as bewteen two people he does have  50-50 chance)

It is quite another thing to break it down in terms electoral votes, saying Trump can win x number of states, thus racking up x number of electoral votes.

So I seriously doubt SeekingAPolitical or Sean in Ottawa broke it down, state by state and the number of votes Trump could rack up to win in their responses when they said "Trump could win" (again that 50-50 thing). While experts in the USA did break it down, and said it virtually impossible for Trump to win based on the electoral map.

NorthReport
SocialJustice101

Glad to see that Horwath is ahead of Ford for Premier, but this is a FEDERAL polling thread.  (Moreover, Ipsos has become an online pollster, so I would take their fundings with a large grain of salt.)

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
The timeline (all times ET):

Where is this from?  I'm not heckling here, but I'm fascinated that someone has got this down to the minute.

Anyway, blurry video of Dion couldn't be that much worse than not-blurry video of Dion.  Tragically, he always looked like he was slapped hard in the face five seconds ago, and was five seconds away from crying.  I say "tragically" because I totally get that that shouldn't matter -- policy, character, honesty and experience should.  But he was kind of the Don Knotts of Canadian politics.

NorthReport

Wow, that's quite a change, and yes, there might have been a major shift in voter sentiment, I don't think there has been, but my issue with polling is that we have no idea whether or not this Forum Poll is accurate, just like we have no idea that a Nanos poll, or any other poll is accurate.  If Forum is accurate however, Canada is in a lot of trouble, as we are making a major shift to the right.  

Federal Conservatives would form government if election held today

Cons 46%

Libs 30%

NDP 18%

http://torontosun.com/news/local-news/federal-conservatives-would-form-g...

NorthReport

 3h3 hours ago

More

 

Paul Wells Retweeted Toronto Sun

With the highest share of the federal popular vote in 34 years. Go big or go home, Forum.

https://twitter.com/InklessPW/status/998704192268132352

Mighty Middle

A new website http://www.calculatedpolitics.com has been created for the 2019 federal election run by two guys with polling experience (one of whom has ties to the NDP having been VP of the NDP Hull—Aylmer riding association.

For Regional projections & individual ridings (which party is leading in a particular riding) go to link below and scroll way down

http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2019-canada-election/

SocialJustice101

We have no idea which pollsters are accurate, UNTIL we look into their track record and methodology.  

Forum Research Poll on Apr 22, 2012:  Wildrose 38%, PC 36%, NDP 12%, Lib 10%

Alberta Election Results on Apr 23, 2012: Wildrose 34%, PC 44%, NDP 10%, Lib 10%

Forum's reported margin of error: 3.1%

Forum's actual error: 14%

http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/40010_Alberta_Issues_Poll_%28Forum_Research%29_%2820120422%29.pdf

SocialJustice101

Liberals 35, Conservatives 34, NDP 20, Green 6 in latest Nanos federal tracking,

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Political-Package-2018-05-18.pdf

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Wow, that's quite a change, and yes, there might have been a major shift in voter sentiment, I don't think there has been, but my issue with polling is that we have no idea whether or not this Forum Poll is accurate, just like we have no idea that a Nanos poll, or any other poll is accurate.  If Forum is accurate however, Canada is in a lot of trouble, as we are making a major shift to the right.  

Federal Conservatives would form government if election held today

Cons 46%

Libs 30%

NDP 18%

http://torontosun.com/news/local-news/federal-conservatives-would-form-g...

Oh for fuck sake. You really believe that poll? It's fucking Sun News. They are insane as Fox News.

But any poll that makes you feel good,huh? How can you believe such an unreal poll? And that would benefit whom exactly oif that was true with the Cons with a super majority and the NDP in the basement? I love how you cherry pick and I loove how you'd even bother posting a poll conducted by Forum for Sun News. Jesus Christ.

Who did they call? Their relatives?

The poll is also blatantly based on stereotypes (most NDP supporters are low income...Liberal support is strictly millenial)

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Liberals 35, Conservatives 34, NDP 20, Green 6 in latest Nanos federal tracking,

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Political-Package-2018-05-18.pdf

That sounds aboout right. That poll NR posted with the Cons up at 4freaking6% is some right winger's wet dream.

josh

NorthReport wrote:

Wow, that's quite a change, and yes, there might have been a major shift in voter sentiment, I don't think there has been, but my issue with polling is that we have no idea whether or not this Forum Poll is accurate, just like we have no idea that a Nanos poll, or any other poll is accurate.  If Forum is accurate however, Canada is in a lot of trouble, as we are making a major shift to the right.  

Federal Conservatives would form government if election held today

Cons 46%

Libs 30%

NDP 18%

http://torontosun.com/news/local-news/federal-conservatives-would-form-g...

Forum should just change its name to Outlier.

Cody87

It's not even plausible based on the info in the article: "Half of the respondents who said they would vote for the Conservatives were male, between 45-65, and they earned $60,000-$80,000."

What, are we supposed to believe that 45-65 year old males who make 60-80 make up 23% of the population? What a joke.

Mighty Middle

Forum is not to be trusted. Even though people have pointed out they have ties to Liberals, they use IVR which skews the results to favor Conservatives.

bekayne

And Forum has the Conservatives at 38% in Quebec.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

bekayne wrote:

And Forum has the Conservatives at 38% in Quebec.

What a bunch of hacks. I guess I can make up my own poll numbers too. I'll ask the mailman,the dude at the depanneur and my cat. I'll get the same results.

lol

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

As of May 22 (Nanos)

LPC 35%

CPC 34%

NDP 20%

Greens 6%

Quebec as of May 11

LPC 42%

CPC 15%

NDP 20%

BQ 15%

Greens 4%

You're going to tell me that the Conservatives have more than doubled their support in Quebec in the last 11 days?

The Conservatives 15% is the normal level it has been in Quebec for the past few years.

Fuck off, Forum 

SocialJustice101

Totally agree with the sentiment, but I'd suggest milder language.    Nobody takes Forum Research seriously anyway.   The Sun network uses it as a propaganda tool.

NorthReport

Forum

Party / Apr 30 / May 16 / Difference

Cons / 43% /  46% / Up 3%

Libs / 30% / 30% / Unchanged

NDP / 14% / 18% / Up 4%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_feder...

SocialJustice101

NR always posts outlier polls favorable to the Cons.   That's a funny way of supporting the NDP.

Mighty Middle

SocialJustice101 wrote:

NR always posts outlier polls favorable to the Cons.   That's a funny way of supporting the NDP.

And higher polling NDP is good for a PC win, so the vote splits on the left. Otherwise if it was the Liberals in second, they could play the strategic voting card and supress the NDP vote.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
What, are we supposed to believe that 45-65 year old males who make 60-80 make up 23% of the population? What a joke.

Are you talking about the population?

Or respondents?

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

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alan smithee alan smithee's picture

SocialJustice101 wrote:

NR always posts outlier polls favorable to the Cons.   That's a funny way of supporting the NDP.

 

That number (46%) is unrealistic. If you read the link to the Sun they stereotype supporters. The Conservatives support is with white old Upper class males . The NDP is supported by low income earners (read between the lines they are suggesting welfare recipients) and the Liberals are supported by Millenials.

The funny thing is,Millenials make up most of the electorate and most Canadians earn $30K and less.

Crunch up those numbers and the Conservatives have A LOT less support than that poll suggests. That fake poll.

But that's NR. He doesn't really care aboout the NDP he just gets off bashing the Liberals. So he posts a blatant fantasy poll because it makes him feel good.

Nanos is more reliable. Forum polled Quebec with 38% support for the Cons. Right there you know they are a joke. Nanos has them at 15% which is far more accurate. The Cons haven't been able to best 20% in Quebec for years.

You really going to believe that half of eligible voters are voting Conservative? With them polling at 15% in Quebec? It's garbage and I believe deep down NR knows it,,​ I assume. .

NR is just having a wet dream. You can't take him seriously.

josh

SocialJustice101 wrote:

NR always posts outlier polls favorable to the Cons.   That's a funny way of supporting the NDP.

Also posts polls that have already been posted.  Often more than once.

josh

alan smithee wrote:

Was that a Three Billboards thing?

 

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NorthReport

After seeing the lastest poll showing the Liberals basically getting wiped off the political map in Ontario maybe that Forum poll was accurate after all, eh!

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

NorthReport wrote:

After seeing the lastest poll showing the Liberals basically getting wiped off the political map in Ontario maybe that Forum poll was accurate after all, eh!

pff..lol..you wish,dude.

josh

NorthReport wrote:

After seeing the lastest poll showing the Liberals basically getting wiped off the political map in Ontario maybe that Forum poll was accurate after all, eh!

I guess the NDP should be ahead of the Liberals then if that were true.

NorthReport

It's early yet, give it time.

josh

OK.  Maybe Prime Minister Mulcair will weigh in.

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