2019 Polls

389 posts / 0 new
Last post
Pondering

Most of that Green rise could be NDP voters telling the NDP they aren't progressive enough on climate change not actual voting intentions. 

Debater

Interesting polling data in Ontario from Frank Graves today:

Only one teaser from our ongoing tracking. But it is an interesting snippet. Based on very large repeated samples it is clear the CPC are on downward trajectory in Ontario. Diagnostics show this is directly related to concerns with Ford government. 11 pt steady decline since Jan.

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1131341830010888192

wage zombie

Aristotleded24 wrote:

"Shaking in their boots" means that Singh and the NDP understand these trends and are quite worried. I don't think that is the case, and I don't think they perceive the problem. Remember, these are the same people who were clapping, cheering, and smiling on national TV as the federal NDp was experiencing the worst ever loss of seats in its history.

Are they actually the same people though?

jerrym

ETA: In the latest May 24th Nanos poll, both the Liberals and Cons are down while the NDP and Greens are up. The Liberals are below 30% at 29.2% (down 1.4%) and the Cons are at 34.8% (down 1.1%) while the NDP has gained the most from the previous Nanos poll of May 17 gaining 1.4% to 15.6% and the Greens have also moved up 0.4% from 11.1% to 11.5%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_2019_Canadian_feder...

The Liberals are also obviously hurting from the SNC Lavalin and Vice Admiral Mark Norman trial fiascos.

Could the ever growing impacts of 25 years of failure to deal with climate change by the Liberals and Conservatives under Chretien, Martin, Harper and Trudeau finally be hitting home, as flooding, wildfires and sea level rise make the news on an ongoing basis? Francois Legault and the CAQ won a large majority of seats in the Quebec election with almost no climate change platform, yet on the weekend announced a shift from fossil fuels towards green hydroelectrical energy to address climate change problems after massive flooding in Quebec and 150,000 mostly young demonstrators in Montreal on March 15th protested the lack of action on climate change. It makes both economic and environmental sense for Quebec. Legault himself said “I want to be perfectly clear — we got the message from our youth. We are going to do more."

Legault announced he wants the province to cut its oil consumption by 40 per cent by 2030, to be replaced by clean electricity. Currently 36 per cent of the energy consumed in Quebec is electric.

“Instead of pumping our money into the coffers of oil companies, we will keep it here to create wealth for people here,” Legault said in his speech to 1,300 delegates at a downtown hotel Sunday. ...

 Dominic Champagne — the media-savvy theatre director who launched a major environmental movement in November known as Le Pacte pour la transition and recently joined the CAQ membership — beamed as he left the council, as did representatives of the David Suzuki Foundation. ...

The upside to cutting oil consumption by the reduction goal, Legault added, is Quebec would save $10 billion a year, which is what it pays now for oil supplies.

http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/canada-and-global-warming-stat...

 

Pondering

That is great news but Legault isn't reacting to climate change or the students. He is a money man. Electricity is Quebec's gold.  It is in our best interests to encourage rapid transition. 

WWWTT

Even though this is thread drift, I have to agree with Pondering on this! 

It also touches on another fact, green energy for the most part is locally produced.

Bacchus

Well now that SNC is going on to a criminal trial, the headlines from it should be at their peak in October

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2019/05/29/judge-rules-snc-lavalin-headed-to-trial/

 

Pondering

Bacchus wrote:

Well now that SNC is going on to a criminal trial, the headlines from it should be at their peak in October

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2019/05/29/judge-rules-snc-lavalin-headed-to-trial/

 

The company can choose a trial by jury or by judge alone. Prior to that, it can opt to apply within 30 days to the Superior Court of Quebec to have Wednesday’s lower court decision quashed.

I thinnk they will apply. 

Bacchus

I wouldnt be surprised but it only delays the inevitable and keeps it in the news

Debater

Andrew Scheer has an Ontario problem — and it could be Doug Ford

Scheer isn't breaking through in Ontario, where polls show high levels of unpopularity for Premier Ford

Éric Grenier

May 29, 2019

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-scheer-ford-1.5152794

jerrym

Pondering wrote:

That is great news but Legault isn't reacting to climate change or the students. He is a money man. Electricity is Quebec's gold.  It is in our best interests to encourage rapid transition. 

As I said above it makes both economic and environmental sense for Quebec to shift from fossil fuels to hydroelectricity. Yet this was not acted upon by the previous Liberal government or proposed by Legault during the election. However, it also makes political sense as people become increasingly concerned about climate change to have use of both perspectives in making the announcement. 

Pondering

It does, I just don't want to give Legault credit for choosing this path based on climate change or student protests. 

R.E.Wood

Lots of new data from Abacus today. Here's some of it, with more at the link below:

LIBERALS AND CONSERVATIVES NECK AND NECK AS GREENS RISE TO 12%

CURRENT VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held tomorrow, 33% say they would vote Liberal, 32% Conservative, 16% NDP, and 12% Green. These numbers suggest some softening of Conservative support over the month, some strengthening of the Green Party, and an ongoing weak trend for the NDP. Today, the NDP trails the Green party in BC, Saskatchewan & Manitoba, and Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, where the NDP won 25% of the vote and 16 seats in 2015, the party is polling at 10% only two points ahead of the Greens and 34 points behind the Liberals.

We now see a pretty tight four-way race in BC, with the Liberals at 29%, the Conservatives at 28%, the Green Party at 18%, the NDP at 17% and the People’s Party with a notable 6%. The Greens appear to be eating into NDP support.

In Ontario, the Liberals have a 3-point edge over the Conservatives (33% to 30%), with the NDP back at 22% and the Greens at 12%. The People’s Party is at 2%. Compared to our last wave, this is a weakening of Conservative support and strengthening of Green Party and NDP support.

In Quebec, the Liberals are well ahead at 44% with the Conservatives at 21%, the Bloc at 14%, NDP at 10%, the Greens at 8%, the People’s Party at 1%. Compared to our last wave, this is a 10-point improvement for the Liberals.

In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives have the edge (34%) over the Liberals (31%), with the Greens at 15%, the NDP at 11% and the People’s Party at 6%. These numbers reflect a big drop for the Liberals, a softening for the NDP, and strengthening of Conservative and Green Party support in the region. In 2015, the Liberal Party swept all 32 seats in Atlantic Canada, beating the Conservatives by 40 points in the popular vote.

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

When asked which of the party leaders they would prefer to see as Prime Minister after the next election, 33% picked Justin Trudeau, 30% Andrew Scheer, 19% Elizabeth May, 12% Jagmeet Singh, and 6% Max Bernier. This is a slight 3-point decline for Andrew Scheer, and a 5-point increase for Elizabeth May, who now polls better than the NDP leader in every region of the country on this question.

https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-and-conservatives-neck-and-neck-as-greens...

josh
Debater

So according to that, Vancouver Granville is a close race between Wilson-Raybould and the new Liberal candidate.

Wilson-Raybould  -- 32%

Liberals -- 29%

Conservatives -- 20%

Greens - 10%

NDP - 8%

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/jody-wilson-raybould-has-the-lead-over-trudeaus-liberals/

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

Hmmm, it's no wonder JWR didn't want to join the NDP, Greens or Conservatives.

robbie_dee

I also suspect that the Greens will decline to run a candidate against JWR so she will get the best of both worlds.

Debater

According to May, they will run a Green candidate against JWR (& Philpott), but it will not be a strong candidate.

Or something like that.

WWWTT

Debater wrote:

According to May, they will run a Green candidate against JWR (& Philpott), but it will not be a strong candidate.

Or something like that.

Do you have a link to May saying that?

Debater

WWWTT wrote:

Debater wrote:

According to May, they will run a Green candidate against JWR (& Philpott), but it will not be a strong candidate.

Or something like that.

Do you have a link to May saying that?

I believe it's discussed in this 2-minute segment with Don Martin on CTV Power Play:

https://twitter.com/gtlem/status/1133394686381633537

WWWTT

Ok Debater that link you posted doesn’t work for me but thanks. Here’s the one I found
https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/a-mistake-elizabeth-may-disappoin...
Ya that’s a real odd position May has?

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

I feel bad for the Green candidates being so openly treated like cannon fodder by their leader.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

laine lowe wrote:

I feel bad for the Green candidates being so openly treated like cannon fodder by their leader.

Yes, it's cringeworthy to imagine the campaign manager in the Green Party HQ, giving a pep talk to the troops as they prepare to go out and knock on doors. "Just remember, people, our objective in this election is to lose while helping the independent candidate if possible." That might be bad for morale.

 

WWWTT

Might?

Anyways, I find it incredibly odd that May doesn’t want to elect green mp’s? And even more odd, openly admit this on national tv???

I suspect there’s green members that are plotting to get rid of May ASAP. 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Michael Moriarity wrote:

laine lowe wrote:

I feel bad for the Green candidates being so openly treated like cannon fodder by their leader.

Yes, it's cringeworthy to imagine the campaign manager in the Green Party HQ, giving a pep talk to the troops as they prepare to go out and knock on doors. "Just remember, people, our objective in this election is to lose while helping the independent candidate if possible." That might be bad for morale.

This is also symptomatic of what most observers have said for years, she is a one person show not a political party. Imagine a membership driven organization where its leader openly offers the crown to an outsider because apparently no one in the federal Green party is good for anything. The good thing is if May is right in her assessment of her fellow Greens it should be easy finding dud candidates.

Debater

laine lowe wrote:

I feel bad for the Green candidates being so openly treated like cannon fodder by their leader.

Yeah, I agree it's weird the way Elizabeth May sometimes treats her party's candidates.

No other party leader could behave in quite the same manner without coming in for a lot more criticism.

Aristotleded24

Michael Moriarity wrote:

laine lowe wrote:

I feel bad for the Green candidates being so openly treated like cannon fodder by their leader.

Yes, it's cringeworthy to imagine the campaign manager in the Green Party HQ, giving a pep talk to the troops as they prepare to go out and knock on doors. "Just remember, people, our objective in this election is to lose while helping the independent candidate if possible." That might be bad for morale.

I can remember when she said something to the effect that people should vote Liberal in certain ridings if that helps to defeat the Conservatives. It made me feel bad for the poor Green candidates in those ridings, knowing that that was the dynamic but still running to offer voters a different option, making all the required sacrifices to run for public office, and being told on the doorstep, "yeah, I like what you stand for but I gotta vote Liberal to stop the Conservatives." Terrible to undermine your team like that.

If she doesn't want to run a Green candidate in that riding that is one thing (that should be done in consultation with local members). But yeah, make up your mind. Either run a full campaign with the intention of winning, or back off entirely.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Elizabeth May is a Liberal supporter. Her background before becoming leader of the Green Party was with the Liberal party. She identifies with both the Liberals and the NDP, but she works hard to favour the Liberal party.

cco

Before that, her background was with Mulroney's Tories.

WWWTT

And for some odd reason, May is more popular than Jag in polls despite the idiodic nonsense that comes from her? Classic racism.

robbie_dee

.

NorthReport
R.E.Wood

An interesting quote from this article:

For the first time ever, the federal Green Party has surpassed the New Democratic Party in decided support in this region. Support for the Greens has more than doubled over the past three months, reaching 14% (up from 5% in May 2018 and 6% in February). NDP support stands at 9% (down from 15% and 11%).

“The federal NDP is struggling to maintain its position as the third party of choice in Atlantic Canada, and findings suggest they could be replaced by the Greens as the main alternative to the Liberals or Conservatives,”

josh

For the first time ever, the federal Green Party has surpassed the New Democratic Party in decided support in this region. Support for the Greens has more than doubled over the past three months, reaching 14% (up from 5% in May 2018 and 6% in February). NDP support stands at 9% (down from 15% and 11%).

Debater

It will be interesting to see whether the Greens can maintain those numbers in Atlantic Canada.  Presumably it is as a result of their success at the provincial level.

It could make it more difficult for Jack Harris to have a comeback in Newfoundland, or for the NDP to have another chance at Acadie-Bathhurst in New Brunswick.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

WWWTT wrote:

Might?

Anyways, I find it incredibly odd that May doesn’t want to elect green mp’s? And even more odd, openly admit this on national tv???

I suspect there’s green members that are plotting to get rid of May ASAP. 

Problem is, based on the way things have gone in the GPC for most of its existence, that there's no more internal party democracy in that party than there is in the NDP-remember how May was able to essentially wipe out a resolution the party convention had passed that committed truth on the Israel/Palestine issue?  This near-absence of internal democracy has allowed May to stay on as federal leader since 2006, despite the fact that, before Paul Manly's upset victory in the Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election,  she has achieved virtually nothing in those thirteen years beside winning and holding her own seat.

WWWTT

If I remember correctly, someone here mentioned this election is Mays last go as leader. So perhaps there may be no need to overthrow May. 

However, if she changes her mind in November, and there’s 6-12 new green MPs, I seriously doubt she would be able to stop it. 

Same goes for foreign policy. 

Anyways, she’s a fucking hypocrite. On one hand, she goes to great lengths to squash any opposition she faces in her party, then she goes on national tv to promote independent MPs???

Clearly she’d be the worst PM Canada has ever had. By for some idiotic odd reason, she’s polling ahead of Jag?

Mighty Middle

Poll in Jane Philpott riding

Liberals (35%) Conservatives (30%) Jane Philpott (19%) Green (4%) NDP (2%)

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/jane-philpott-faces-long-odds-of...

Pages