Actual poll thread Sept 15 2010

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thorin_bane
Actual poll thread Sept 15 2010

At 32 per cent support, the Tories have held the slight but statistically significant lead over the past two weeks. The Liberals have also remained steady at 29 per cent support.

The Conservatives held a comfortable 11-percentage-point lead over the Liberals at the beginning of the summer, but have faced mounting criticism for their moves to scrap the mandatory long-form census and the federal long-gun registry.

The NDP's lead over the Green Party has widened, with the NDP receiving 16.6 per cent support compared with 10.7 per cent for the Greens, according to the poll.

Support for the Bloc Québécois has dropped in two weeks to 8.9 per cent, the poll suggests.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/09/15/ekos-poll.html#socialcomments#ixzz0zgzXcmEX

NorthReport

So, if the truth be known, Layton's position on the gun control legislation has gained the NDP close to 2% in the polls.

JKR

I don't think these opinion polls are accurate enough to detect changes of just a couple of percentage points.

Debater

NorthReport wrote:

So, if the truth be known, Layton's position on the gun control legislation has gained the NDP close to 2% in the polls.

I thought you didn't trust EKOS polls.

KenS

The polls dont say anything one way or the other about the effects of the registry debate. Its all within the normal short term variation even if there is nothing much going on at the time.

thorin_bane

The polls have been moving about as much as angels dancing on the head of a pin.  Just because harper isn't as high as he was means nothing. Until we have an election something these cowards won't do, all the polls are pretty much meaningless. Hell I don't even trust polls anymore, which of course is what they want. I vote for the party that best represents my views.

Sadly that leaves me stuck with the NDP, but the other options suck a lot worse until we get PR

Stockholm

The Liberals will be shitting bricks over this one - NDP support up 4% in Quebec:

Bloc 36% LPC 22% (-2 %) CPC 21% (+2 %) NDP 17% (+4)

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage_lundi200910.pdf

Sean in Ottawa

I doubt anyone is shitting bricks on a single poll...

I suspect that the failure for the Liberals to change the impression that seems to be entrenched about Ignatieff is the bigger problem for them.

Caissa

Almost time for Justin Trudeau...

Sean in Ottawa

Yeah, just what the Liberals need is another Messiah. Because the last 3 didn't work.

thorin_bane

Yes but he has the royal lineage. Of course that wouldn`t stop the martin half of the liberals to dangle him by his tootsies. Can`t have any co operation with the left doncha know. I could see them capturing a number of NDp votes, but they would lose an awful lot across the board because of trudeaus legacy. At least with quebekers and the west.

Though some quebekers might be happy with a french person of the non dion ilk being in charge of the libs again. I would guess it would polarize the quebec vote at 45 -40 and the other 15 % split with everyone else. I like the poll but I will wait to see if it can be sustained. If I was the Bloc I would be pretty ecstatic about it. The have the chance with the registry to maybe steal a few more seats and have the federalist vote scattered amoung a lot of parties. Sure they won`t capture some of the montreal ridings, but it would still hurt the libs a bunch.

I really do think quebec looks at politics in a different light than Roc. For them a lot of it is strategy. If the NDP looked more viable I could see a strong showing for them in quebec, maybe 5 seats this time around if the polls went something like lib 21 and ndp 18 or so. I would love to flip our numbers with the cons.

And to be honest if it looks like the cons are not going to form government near the end of an election campaign I can see them heading to other federal parties. They don`t like to back a loser. So if we see the cons without momentum we could see some ver interesting shifts on Eday.

Stockholm

I think the Liberals are shitting bricks because they had this carefully concocted scheme to go after the NDP on the gun registry - and a. it wasn't working in the first place and b. thanks to Jack using powers of persuasion instead of a whip - the NDP has saved the gun registry totally foiling the Liberal strategy.

When Queen Mary "Bloody Mary" was on the throne, the British lost Calais to the French and that was their last possession in France. It is said that Mary died with "Calais" carved into her breast and that she felt she would never live down the loss of Calais. Similarly, many Liberal bloggers and organizers are driven to distractio n with thjeir obsession with winning back Outremont - no matter what it means to the other 307 ridings in Canada. A poll showing NDP support up to 17% in Quebec and Lberal support falling back to 22% has to be like a glass of sulphuric acid being thrown in their faces.

Stockholm

thorin_bane wrote:

They (Quebecers) don`t like to back a loser. So if we see the cons without momentum we could see some ver interesting shifts on Eday.

Could have fooled me. If Quebecers don't like to back a "loser" why do they keep voting for the BQ which is an automatic loser since it can never be in power?

Sean in Ottawa

This is a completely inaccurate perception of Quebec.

People like to ascribe group think when there is not any. They never did get together and say, well this is what we are going to do.

The reason is partly they have a fairly centralized media and even a centralized culture to a great degree-- most people in Quebec have been to all the main cities. Politically the province has had a similar culture and therefore voting has tended to be similar in most of the province. This means if people in one part are leaning one way, others will as well.

More recently there have emerged far more regional voting than before (there always were pockets but this is bigger than that).

As well the one big divider has been nationalism so with a nationalist party it is easier to expect divisions.

I think it is unfair to cast Quebec as only voting for a winner. They vote for what they like and are big enough that if they all agree that likely becomes a winner.

thorin_bane

I still think if they see no economic benefit to keeping harpy in power the will jetison the cons in a hurry.

Stock you are looking at it the wrong way. The bloc gave them a voice for the seperatists movment and then it became a viable social democratic party or in other words quebec values and a blocker to the conservative movement in the rest of canada.  But what I am saying is for federalist they tend to back winners-pre bloc. I think we would benefit most from looking like viable option for government. A federalist option with quebec values as it were.

I guess sean, its more like a self fullfilling destiny because if any nationwide party picked up 50 seats in quebec it would do a lot for their fortunes.

I don't think they have been singularly devoted to one party at election. One could say the same about alberta and ontario. The last liberal government lost because they lost control of their 99 seats in ontario(windsor was the NDP beachead in the province after the 93 meltdown) So if the bloc alberta ever voted for anything outside of conservatives, the cons would quickly lose their hold on government. So I guess it is almost equally redundant to say that quebec votes in a kind of groupthink. I would say them electing both liberals and conservatives over the last 2 elections disproves both our theories.

So that leaves us with no theories as to why we have made little to no inroads in quebec other than the last few elections.

Sean in Ottawa

Sorry I don't understand your post what disproves both theories-- what theories?

I am only advancing the notion that for a time Quebec replicated the same vote pattern in seats across the province creating the usual false majorities. Without enough regional division a party could poll just a little behind the leading party and lose every seat. Then recently, there have been more regional division -- the reason is the nationalist federalist divide which has long been regional unlike the choices in the old days between the federalist options.

The NDP is not having a much harder time in Quebec than it is in NB or PEI or had for many years in NS or NL etc. It is difficult to break new ground.

I can add as many others feel, it is the crumbling of the provincial party that made the process of building in Quebec so difficult. While parties may alternate in power between federal and provincial at times, a strong opposition party without the baggage of government and with good unemployed (defeated) candidates can help as much as a sitting government. But when the party does nto exist provincially or is a wasteland then there is a greater challenge federally. Arguably if the NDP wants federal seats in Quebec it needs a provincial wing (and by that I don't mean QS which is an unrelated entity that may compete for some of the same support but it is not an NPD.

Debater

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Yeah, just what the Liberals need is another Messiah. Because the last 3 didn't work.

Who are the last 3?

KenS

Iggy, Dion, Martin

[if you want to be picky no one thought Dion was a Messiah. But its a trend nonetheless, with Dion as a short interegnum.]

Sean in Ottawa

True, you could say 5 but a couple of those did not make the leadership--

Rae and Kennedy were both considered as such by some.

The party is driftless and lacks any kind of plan and no leader can fix that-- When your party is in disarray and there is no workable plan the leader looks like a dud even if that comes from others. With the right plan and the right people and the right communications even Dion could have done better. The man had some upsides but these they never capitalized on and he got buried by the other issues in the context he was in.

I am not a Liberal and I can say I never disliked him and at times I liked what he said very much and I did not consider him a liar either. But he led that party and delivered that plan and the rest, including himself was history.

6079_Smith_W

KenS wrote:

Iggy, Dion, Martin

[if you want to be picky no one thought Dion was a Messiah. But its a trend nonetheless, with Dion as a short interegnum.]

I don't know... I remember Rex Murphy's editorial after the convention and he seemed to think it was a stroke of serendipitous genius that  foiled both of the feuding factions.

 

Debater

Stockholm wrote:

many Liberal bloggers and organizers are driven to distractio n with thjeir obsession with winning back Outremont - no matter what it means to the other 307 ridings in Canada.

The party that is most concerned about Outremont is the NDP, not the Liberals.  The Liberals certainly want it back, but the future of their Quebec vote does not depend on it alone the way it does for the NDP.  The NDP needs to keep Outremont in order to build further gains and to show it can win elsewhere.  If it were to lose Outremont and Mulcair, it would halt the NDP's progress in Quebec.

I don't think the Liberals are ignoring the other 307 seats as you claim.  I think they know that they can't just focus on one seat.  I'm not sure where this idea of yours comes from.  I think the Liberal effort in Outremont so far has been rather low-key and lacklustre.  I don't think Cauchon even has his campaign website up yet.

David Young

I find it interesting that the NDP's poll numbers are at these levels when they have so few candidates nominated (10 out of 75, according to Pundit's Guide).

Will there be a domino effect of increased NDP support meaning higher profile, more electable candidates coming forward, and then another increase in support when the electorate sees who their potential M.P.'s may be?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Caissa wrote:

Almost time for Justin Trudeau...

...to sing the Yo Gabba Gabba theme?

bekayne
thorin_bane

The Harris-Decima survey conducted for The Canadian Press put the Conservatives at 33 per cent support, three points ahead of the Liberals.

The NDP trailed well behind at just 14 per cent – down six points since April and only three points ahead of the Green party.

The poll indicates New Democrats' biggest losses have occurred among urban and female voters and British Columbians.

Harris-Decima chairman Allan Gregg says the results suggest the NDP is paying for its failure to take a clear stand on the gun registry.

The telephone poll of 2,023 Canadians was conducted Sept. 9 to 19 and is considered accurate within plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times in 20. The margin of error is greater for regional and demographic sub-samples.

 

Kinda wierd to figure how BC would be a big loser given the nature of that province as well as females and urbans. It almost like damned by all sides. Course the likes of the CBC news with the flip flopping mantra despite the libs doing the same and even dear leader having flip flopped. Perhaps todays articulation by stoffer may actually help...meh who knows. I still want an election regardless of these results.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Well, the NDP is screwed on the gun registry no matter what.  If it whips the rural mp's into voting to keep it, it loses the rural seats for at least a decade, if not forever.  If it whips the urban mp's into getting the registry, it loses a lot of those seats to the Liberals(even though Liberal candidates don't deserveee any urban votes anymore, with their absolute commitment to Bay Street-approved austerity).

What they hell were or are they gonna do?

Stockholm

The NDP will have the best of both worlds. Haven't you read the news? They will not whip anyone, but Jack used his powers of persuasion to convince just enough NDP MPs to vote to keep the registry that it will be kept - but the six MPs who vote to scrap it will be helped in their largely rural/aboriginal ridings (with the exception of the inexplicable Jim Maloway who has no good reason for being against the registry being from a 100% urban Winnipeg riding)

With regard to BC, I give up on trying to project anything - the polls are ALWAYS all over the map there. It seems like every week you get one poll where the BC sub-sample has the NDP in the lead and thre same day another poll has the Tories way up - there no province with such consistently erratic whacky polling numbers!

Life, the unive...

Didn't EKOS have the NDP at 16% in Quebec at basically the same time as HD has the NDP at 9.  They both can't be right.  Also if you check out the HD website and look at their last poll the NDP only moved within the margin of error.  This is yet more evidence of posters trying to make a partisan political argument based on complete conjecture, not based in evidence.

ocsi

I really like the NDP results in Quebec from the latest Angus Reid poll.

Sean in Ottawa

Interesting-- to the point that any poll is as I am hugely skeptical of all political polls these days.

The national results Cons 34; Liberals 26; NDP 18; Greens 11; BQ 10 also interesting.

Centrist

The two Reid's have diametrically opposed NDP results:

Ipsos: 12%

Angus: 18%

And which pollster was the most accurate for the 2008 election result?

Stockholm

But but but...its IMPOSSIBLE not only is the NDP support essentially unchanged from a month ago, it is level with the results of the 2008 election and WORST OF ALL NDP support in Quebec has soared to 17%.

Don't these fools at Angus Reid realize their are ruining the MSN's narrative about the federal political scene. The NDP is supposed to losing support in Quebec NOT gaining. We have to go back to the drawing board now....

Uncle John

It still boggles my mind that the Government is ahead during one of the worst recessions in Canadian history.

Normally, being the Government should be bad enough, but being the Government in a bad recession should be even worse.

The Opposition clearly has to provide three things:

1. A reason to get rid of the Government.

2. A perception of Better Leadership.

3. A better Brand.

Stockholm

It doesn't boggle my mind at all. First of all, as far as Canada is concerned, this is NOT the worst recession in history. By any objective standard the recessions of the early 80s and the early 90s were far worse (compare the unemployment rates, inflation rates, interest rates etc... for this recession to the others). On top of that, as much as i hate Harper, its hard to keep a straight face and argue that the entire global recession can be blamed on him and that with another party in power Canada woulod have been the only country on the face of the earth to avoid the recession completely.

Sean in Ottawa

Unemployment is indeed very different.

This time we have created thousands of part time jobs where people can earn a small fraction of a living wage to replace the full time jobs that were lost.

We need to replace the employment rate that counts jobs with one that counts employment hours so when one full time 40 hour per week job becomes two part time 15 hour per week jobs we stop thinking we have gained something.

As well, we should have a pay index and track the amount of money paid to Canadians for employment (unbelievably easy to do since Revenue Canada actually has the information).

In the meantime we should stop pretending that we actually have employment stats.

thorin_bane

http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/09/29/ekos-voter-intention-poll.ht...

Tories, Liberals gain ground: EKOS poll

A poll suggests the federal Conservatives have maintained their small lead over the Liberals, while support for both parties increased slightly over the past two weeks at the apparent expense of the NDP.

According to the latest results from EKOS, released exclusively to CBC News, 33.1 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Tories if an election were held today, compared with 29.9 per cent for the Liberals.

The New Democrats received 13.3 per cent support, down more than three percentage points from two weeks ago, according to EKOS.

Meanwhile, support for the Green Party remained roughly the same at 10.9 per cent, while support for the Bloc Québécois rose slightly to 10.1 per cent, the EKOS poll suggests

Previous results. to compare against. Not sure the screaming headline and narrative of the CBC is very accurate.

  • Conservatives: 32.4%
  • Liberals: 28.9%
  • NDP: 16.6%
  • Green Party: 10.7%
  • Bloc Quebecois: 8.9%
  • Other: 2.5%
  • This after all the flip flop and slamming by the media and doesn't compare well against the AR poll from 2 days ago.

    Sean in Ottawa

    It is very likely now that the NDP is actually losing support over the registry.

    Not of course directly over the registry.

    No, this would be because so many people have said it that other idiots think it is true and then ironically it becomes true.

    Politics remains a confidence game.

    The NDP of course will recover in a very short time from this talk-inspired-substance-free debacle and a new issue will be trotted out to sell more newspapers and justify more polling etc.

    Uncle John

    The economy is not doing well. Today it was discovered it actually contracted in July. Canada has been bleeding manufacturing jobs for 30 years, and few are being created when the job numbers do go up in the service and government sectors.

    If the economy keeps contracting and Messers Harper & Flaherty continue to insist on reigning in spending, they will lose their jobs. The political climate is a lot more deficit-friendly, as it should be when the economic base is shrinking.

    On the other hand, if they keep pumping in stimulus people will let them continue to govern.

    It may be that simple.

    Sean in Ottawa

    I think the fairness and efficacy of the stimulus spending will be an issue soon-- more than it has been.

    Debater

    I see that the NDP is down in another poll.

    Perhaps those other polls were accurate afterall?

    Not going to hold my breath waiting for anyone to admit I was right though.

    offgrid

    Why are we still sending Tax dollars to pay for the Bloc Quebecois when their sole purpose is to break up Canada ?

     

    We are complaining about Stimulus dollars here ?  Really ??? 

    Maysie Maysie's picture

    Hey offgrid. 

    I know you're new, but here on babble we don't bash Quebec. So, don't do it please.

    KenS

    "Right" about what exactly Debater?

    I count at least 4 people who said it doesnt seem to be just an outlier poll, that the NDP has moved back in the horse race ups and downs. And: so what?

    As far as that: interesting story here. I didnt expect that the NDP was going to take a hit for the gun registry thing itself, or for all the negative spiining either. In part that was because Layton was getting a lot of good press for the reasonable peacemaker role, and for being astute.

    Now we dont know for sure that this is caused by the registry kerfuffle, but what else was going on? And it looks like the NDP may have bled a bit in both directions.

    Since we know there arent enough people on either side of the fence who make the registry such a high personal priority, you kind of have to conclude that the horse race effect [which never takes to manifest] is a viscreral reaction to how the NDP looked.

    And if so, then people must have been more impacted by the weeks of bad news about how bad this was for the NDP, than they were taking in the way it ended.

    Stockholm

    Except in Quebec where the polls all have the NDP soaring to 18% - BAAAAD news for Liberal hopes in Outremont - cue the exploding heads in the Liberal blogosphere.

    thorin_bane

    Debater wrote:

    I see that the NDP is down in another poll.

    Perhaps those other polls were accurate afterall?

    Not going to hold my breath waiting for anyone to admit I was right though.

    Oh but you aren't a liberal?

    Give it up. ANd yes we have acknowledged they are taking a hit. But not according to the AR poll that has them at 18 and the libs at 26 or are you going to admit the AR is a relevant poll? Probably not because you always disappear when the libs take a hit from being useless as usual.

    I have a valid reason the NDP are taking a hit. All I heard for alomst a wekk was flip flop of the NDP...no other party was accused of this, nor did anyone mention about what whipping is. It was all NDP BAD for 2 weeks.

    Where is the coverage of the Libs failing to pass c-440(Gerard Kennedy Lib bill) or c-308(Bloc bill)?

    One was for war resisters and the other was improving employment benefits(much as the libs voted against it last year)

    Another instance of a liberal bill that got scuttled by their own party(war resisiters). Hardly a damn word on  it or Iggys leadership for not getting his people to vote on their own bill again considering all the handwringing over layton supposed strong arming too much or not enough of his MPS on the LGR.

    Do you see the media narrative or is it all in my mind?

    Or are you going to dance away and not answer my question the way you usually do when its uncomfortable to your liberal position that you supposedly don't have. I most of the time don't take the bait but I am tired of you trolling around on the poll threads only when its convenient to you.

    JKR

    The Greens seem to be doing well among the dermatologically challenged.

    EKOS Poll - stats

    Under 25 years

    Greens: 21.7%
    Con: 20.8
    Lib: 20.7
    NDP: 17.3
    BQ: 16.9

    Maybe May's top election pitch will be "free zit cream for all"?

    With the Greens being more popular with younger folk, is the Green's popularity destined to increase as time goes by, or will the younger set move away from the Greens as they get older and presumably wiser?

    I'll vote for the first party that promises free Ben Gay.

    NorthReport

    Just looks like another another Liberal pollster above trying to manipulate the voters once again. 

     

     

    Ignatieff's cognitive miscues part of a pattern

     

     

     

    http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Ignatieff+cognitive+miscues+part+patte...

     

    JKR

    .

    JKR

    Just looks like another Conservative pollster above trying to manipulate the voters under Harper's orders!!!!

     

    The book is an exhaustive catalogue of Harper's "deeply seeded" need for complete information control and his discipline, ruthlessness — and information duplicity — in pursuing his goals.

    — Harper is driven by a gut hatred of his political opponents that's unusual in electoral politics.

    Martin's conclusion to "Harperland" paints a rather grim assessment of a leader for whom "the end justified the means, almost any means."

     

     

    Harper book paints picture of ruthless PM demanding total control, discipline 

     

    nicky

    Debater, it is getting harder to credit you with any objectivity whatsoever. It is a little boring (not to say predictable) to read about you dancing over what you yearn to be the grave on the NDP.

    In order to be an effective troll I would advise you to be less obvious.

    In another post recently you boasted about being a "lawyer". Yet your user profile says you are an "office administrator". Which is it? Are you being as disingenuous about your occupation as you are about your political neutrality?

    Maysie Maysie's picture

    nicky, disagree with Debater all you like, but you can't ask accusatory questions about Debater's real life. 

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