Calgary-Centre federal by-election

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Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Isn't Calgary Centre the heart of the beast?

 

(not intended as Alberta-bashing, by the way  )

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I guess someone will respond by saying the beast does not have a heart. Sealed

David Young

Boom Boom wrote:

I guess someone will respond by saying the beast does not have a heart. Sealed

Boom Boom!  Saying that Stephen Harper doesn't have a heart is redundant, wouldn't you say?

 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

LaughingLaughingLaughing

Ippurigakko

I think it will be April 2013 before Liberal leadership... April 8 to 12, 2013, i guess.

David Young

Ippurigakko wrote:

I think it will be April 2013 before Liberal leadership... April 8 to 12, 2013, i guess.

Sounds plausible to me too, Ippurigakko.

If Harper timed the Toronto-Danforth by-election just before the NDP convention, then calling the by-elections for just before the Liberal Convention when the Liberals don't have any hope at all of winning any of them (unless, perhaps, the Etobicoke Centre decision comes down and there's a by-election there as well) would be more of the same for Harper.

 

bagkitty bagkitty's picture

Boom Boom wrote:

Isn't Calgary Centre the heart of the beast?

 

(not intended as Alberta-bashing, by the way  )

Actually Calgary Southwest is the Heart of the Beast, Calgary Southeast is it's Liver, and Calgary West is its Anus. Wink

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

LOL @ bagkitty! Laughing

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

There are now three candidates for the NDP Nomination in Calgary Centre:

 

Scott Payne: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Scott-Payne-for-Calgary-Centre/403996439666962

Brian Malkinson: https://www.facebook.com/brianmalkinsonndp?ref=ts&fref=ts

Matthew McMillan: https://www.facebook.com/McMillan4Calgary

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture
toaster

Three, relatively unqualified, white men.  Hmm.

felixr

I've met Scott Payne. He'd make a good retail politician.

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

toaster wrote:

Three, relatively unqualified, white men.  Hmm.

In 2011, the party was unable to find a candidate who even lived in the City of Calgary. The NDP took a beating in the press for running a candidate from Edmonton in the riding (and we still got 15% of the vote - one of our best results in Calgary).

I'd say the appearance of three young, energetic candidates seeking to contest the nomination is clear progress.

David Young

They all sound like great candidates, Lou.

Care to place any odds as to who stands the best chance to win the nomination?

As for the fact that they are all white males, I remember Alexa McDonough being quoted in the Nova Scotia legislature when she was joined by John Holm and Bob Levy after the 1984 N.S. election as New Democrat M.L.A.s as saying 'Of course, there should be more women involved in electoral politics, Mr. Speaker, but these two men sitting with me as members of the NDP caucus will do more to advance the cause of minority rights, workers rights AND women's rights than any number of female candidates elected to the governing Progressive Conservatives over there!' (or words to that effect)

Lou, you were here in N.S. during that time period.  Do you recall Alexa saying this?

The candidate in Victoria sounds fantastic, not because he is another 'while male', but of his credentials, just like Craig Scott in Toronto-Danforth.

 

Brachina

toaster wrote:

Three, relatively unqualified, white men.  Hmm.

That hasn't stopped Justin Trudeau :D

Seriously though its not like anyone else is banging the door down for the job, so I wish each of them the best of luck and I take anyone them over a useless Liberal or Tory.

felixr

It's progress but still a disappointment. With the party's current standing it would normally be able to attract star candidates, but with Mulcair's comments and the Tory's effective spin, the fields were plowed in with salt.

Brachina

It has attracted star candiates, in Victoria, but this Calgary and honestly saying Mulcair salted that field is silly when the field itself is made of salt to begin with.

Still normally its hard enough to find a local Calgarian to run in the riding, never mind a star candiate. I think its great having three locals fighting for the opportunity to carry the banner is wonderful. Why does every candiate have to be a star anyways, isn't there something to be said for passionate locals who love the riding and have a passion for its people, a relationship with the riding.

David Young

Brachina wrote:
It has attracted star candiates, in Victoria, but this Calgary and honestly saying Mulcair salted that field is silly when the field itself is made of salt to begin with. Still normally its hard enough to find a local Calgarian to run in the riding, never mind a star candiate. I think its great having three locals fighting for the opportunity to carry the banner is wonderful. Why does every candiate have to be a star anyways, isn't there something to be said for passionate locals who love the riding and have a passion for its people, a relationship with the riding.

Well said, Brachina!

Whomever does win the nomination, if they don't win this time, I hope that candidate makes the commitment to stand again in 2015.

It took Linda Duncan more than one election to win her seat!

 

Brachina

Thank you Dave.

Albireo

(Calgary Herald:)

The New Democrats have a new candidate in the race to become the party’s candidate in the upcoming Calgary-Centre byelection.

Anti-poverty advocate Dan Meades will formally announce on Monday he is entering the campaign.

There are two other declared candidates, Brian Malkinson and Matthew McMillan,  vying for the NDP’s nod  in an Oct. 27 vote. A third declared candidate, Scott Payne, withdrew this week because of the entry of a “stronger and compelling candidate.”

That would evidently be Meades, the executive director of Vibrant Communities Calgary.

...

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

Scott Payne has bowed out of the race to support Meades.

 

I found this clip of Meades on You Tube - he looks impressivve!

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture
Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:

David Young wrote:

They all sound like great candidates, Lou.

Care to place any odds as to who stands the best chance to win the nomination?

As for the fact that they are all white males, I remember Alexa McDonough being quoted in the Nova Scotia legislature when she was joined by John Holm and Bob Levy after the 1984 N.S. election as New Democrat M.L.A.s as saying 'Of course, there should be more women involved in electoral politics, Mr. Speaker, but these two men sitting with me as members of the NDP caucus will do more to advance the cause of minority rights, workers rights AND women's rights than any number of female candidates elected to the governing Progressive Conservatives over there!' (or words to that effect)

Lou, you were here in N.S. during that time period.  Do you recall Alexa saying this?

The candidate in Victoria sounds fantastic, not because he is another 'while male', but of his credentials, just like Craig Scott in Toronto-Danforth.

 

That and, given that Canada is a country(like the U.S. in this respect)where most people are white and where half of those white people are male, it's simply the law of averages that white guys are fairly likely to be a large segment of those seeking, say, an NDP nomination.  It's not like that's ALWAYS a sign of oppression(the exception in this case being, of course, if it turned out that there was a coordinated effort by the party to keep POC or women or the transgendered from seeking this particular nomination).  I

And, if the Left in any form is ever to come to power in North America, it will have to find some way to see white men as potential allies(not automatic leaders, but allies and also as people who can be victims of oppression themselves) in the struggle for radical change...if white men are simply assumed to always be the enemy, there simply aren't going to be enough votes or enough people in any other form of political or social struggle to bring down the status quo. 

Plus...last I checked...THESE two were white dudes:

 

Exactly. I can't think of a better way to get more women and POC involved in the Calgary NDP than by standing behind the eventual nomination winner and helping him to build a strong team for next time.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

David Young wrote:

They all sound like great candidates, Lou.

Care to place any odds as to who stands the best chance to win the nomination?

As for the fact that they are all white males, I remember Alexa McDonough being quoted in the Nova Scotia legislature when she was joined by John Holm and Bob Levy after the 1984 N.S. election as New Democrat M.L.A.s as saying 'Of course, there should be more women involved in electoral politics, Mr. Speaker, but these two men sitting with me as members of the NDP caucus will do more to advance the cause of minority rights, workers rights AND women's rights than any number of female candidates elected to the governing Progressive Conservatives over there!' (or words to that effect)

Lou, you were here in N.S. during that time period.  Do you recall Alexa saying this?

The candidate in Victoria sounds fantastic, not because he is another 'while male', but of his credentials, just like Craig Scott in Toronto-Danforth.

 

That and, given that Canada is a country(like the U.S. in this respect)where most people are white and where half of those white people are male, it's simply the law of averages that white guys are fairly likely to be a large segment of those seeking, say, an NDP nomination.  It's not like that's ALWAYS a sign of oppression(the exception in this case being, of course, if it turned out that there was a coordinated effort by the party to keep POC or women or the transgendered from seeking this particular nomination). 

And, if the Left in any form is ever to come to power in North America, it will have to find some way to see white men as potential allies(not automatic leaders, but allies and also as people who can be victims of oppression themselves) in the struggle for radical change...if white men are simply assumed to always be the enemy, there simply aren't going to be enough votes or enough people in any other form of political or social struggle to bring down the status quo. 

Plus...last I checked...THESE two were white dudes:

 

Ippurigakko

Finally, Harper calls 3 by-elections on Nov 26, not April 2013. I assume lol

 

I read cbc comments said:

"Victoria and Durham will go Liberal; Calgary will go Tory. Harper will pay millions in attack ads because he is a sociopath and the Canadian spring is nipping at his heels."

I detest that person who said both going to Liberal!

adma

Ippurigakko wrote:
I detest that person who said both going to Liberal!

Especially since there could be an argument that Calgary Centre is *most* likely to go Liberal of the three...

Ippurigakko

yeah but Calgary-Centre Liberal is decreasing 30% to 18% and swing to NDP 8% to 15% since 2004.

jerrym

Ippurigakko wrote:

"Victoria and Durham will go Liberal; Calgary will go Tory. Harper will pay millions in attack ads because he is a sociopath and the Canadian spring is nipping at his heels."

I detest that person who said both going to Liberal!

Whatever happens in the three byelections, Victoria is not going Liberal. The Liberal candidate will be fighting the Green to avoid being last as the 2011 federal election results show (13.2% Liberal and 12.4%. Green) Savoie won 51.3% and had a 13,745 margin over the second place candidate. Furthermore, the NDP candidate, Murray Rankin, is outstanding. He is ""a prominent Canadian environmental and aboriginal rights lawyer ... former President of the British Columbia interest Advocacy Centre (BCPIAC), former president of West Coast Environmental Law, and past Chairman of The Land Conservancy of British Columbia" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murray_Rankin), as well as being co-chair of the Environmental Law Centre at the University of Victoria.

Denise Savoie (x) NDP 24,967 51.3%

Patrick Hunt CON 11,222 23.1%

Christopher Causton LIB 6,439 13.2%

Jared Giesbrecht GRN 6,050 12.4%

http://site.citytv.com/federalelections/304.html

adma

Ippurigakko wrote:

yeah but Calgary-Centre Liberal is decreasing 30% to 18% and swing to NDP 8% to 15% since 2004.

I said there *could be* an argument--which is just as well a debunking of their chances in the other two seats.  And in a way, the fact that CC is the only one of the three where Lib remained above NDP in 2011 might justify such an argument--though the strongest bet is on them losing all three.  (Then again, who knows if there'll be any "Justin bounce"--in which case, this could be a real sleeper litmus for how the Liberals fare in the "Justin for Leader" era.)

janfromthebruce

I think it is far outside the realm of possible that Victoria would go Liberal. It will go NDP. As for Durham, well the Lib name is in the crapper in Ontario considering Mcguinty prorogued like Harper. Again, Liberal name is in the crapper.

Ippurigakko

heck, i dont mind victoria would go green or conservative.

Aristotleded24

adma wrote:

Ippurigakko wrote:

yeah but Calgary-Centre Liberal is decreasing 30% to 18% and swing to NDP 8% to 15% since 2004.

I said there *could be* an argument--which is just as well a debunking of their chances in the other two seats.  And in a way, the fact that CC is the only one of the three where Lib remained above NDP in 2011 might justify such an argument--though the strongest bet is on them losing all three.  (Then again, who knows if there'll be any "Justin bounce"--in which case, this could be a real sleeper litmus for how the Liberals fare in the "Justin for Leader" era.)

I really doubt that the Trudeau name will be an asset for the Liberals in Calgary.

adma

janfromthebruce wrote:
Again, Liberal name is in the crapper.

But in the faint hope that it *isn't* in the crapper, all three of their candidates do have something to them that's not mere placeholder/poteau. (Of course, just as w/Eric Rogers provincially in Kitchener-Waterloo, it might wind up rendering a resounding third-place defeat even more embarrassing in the end.)

janfromthebruce

Well, Fontana from London Ontario, and a ex Lib MP from the sponsorship era, is making headlines with using his MP expense acct to pay for his son's wedding in 20 thousand dollar range, and just reminded everybody in Ontario about the "sponsorship scandal". Bad timing for sure.

David Young

I wonder how much the voters in Calgary Centre will like the prospects of having to vote when 20 cm of snow has already fallen with four+ weeks yet to go untill voting day!

 

bagkitty bagkitty's picture

Well, since it predicted to go up to double digits next week, we are working under the assumption that it is will melt. Actually, a mid-October snowfall is about par for the course here. I doubt very much Mayor Nenshi will be calling in the armed forces to deal with the snowfall.

*waves to Maysie, and all her Central Canadian Overlord pals*

 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Indeed voters in Calgary hibernate for the eight months of winter and don't like to be disturbed unless they get a favourable wind coming over the Rockies from BC.

janfromthebruce

Thus Harper ensured that having lots of foot canvasors won't be ideal but having lots of money for phone calls and phone banks will be better to get out the Conservative voters.

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

Dan Meades won the NDP nomination tonight on the first ballot.

jerrym

Dan Meades won the NDP nomination for Calgary Centre in an October 23rd meeting moved up from the original October 30th date because of the byelection call by Harper.

"Meades, executive director of Vibrant Communities Calgary, beat out Brian Malkinson and Matthew McMillan on Tuesday night as parties prepare for the Nov. 26 byelection.

Pundits have the byelection race favouring the Conservatives in a landslide, but Meades is confident he can knock off Tory nominee Joan Crockatt.

“This isn’t a conservative seat,” Meades said. “They act like no matter what they do, they’ll get elected. So they ignore the constituents until election time.”

He added: “There is lots of support in the community. The seat is ours, we just have to go and get it.”

He is also be facing Liberal nominee Harvey Locke, Green party candidate Chris Turner, and Progressive Canadian party representative Ben Christensen.

The byelection was prompted when former MP Lee Richardson resigned in May to become the principal secretary for Alberta Premier Alison Redford."

http://www.calgaryherald.com/Anti+poverty+campaigner+wins+Calgary+Centre...

 

"The NDP, which had been playing its cards close to its chest in the riding with a number of low-profile nomination contestants testing the waters, now appears to have recruited a candidate that has some party stalwarts in the province pretty excited. "Vibrant Calgary" executive director Dan Meades, originally from St. John's, Newfoundland and known for his work fighting poverty and as a advocate for the city's poorest citizens, will join diesel engineer Brian Malkinson and armed forces officer Matthew McMillan in the nomination race (social media expert Scott H. Payne having already withdrawn in Meades' favour)".

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2012/10/november-26-by-elections-the-full-run...

felixr

Good luck to Meades! I sincerely hope I'm wrong and that the NDP does very well in the upcoming byelection.

felixr

Dutch disease comments hang over early days of NDP campaign

Good thing Brian Mason distanced himself somewhat from Mulcair on this issue. Hopefully he will go down to Calgary and lend Meades a hand. This is probably going to be one of the best resourced NDP campaigns in Calgary in over two decades. I wonder if Meades has what it takes to appeal to Calgary Centre's blue Tories. I'm sure he's got what it takes to rally a decent part of the NDP side.

felixr

One of the best things about this Calgary race is the amount of attention the NDP has been getting. I think its clear to many how large of a challenge this is going to be. The lower the coverage on the Victoria race, I think the easier an NDP hold it will be. Durham is going to be a really interesting challenge. The candidate for the NDP has about as good a resume as they come for an NDP politician and in a riding that is normally no picnic! Can Andrea Horwath help pull off another stunning victory again? I hope Federal HQ has phone banks up, and busses running for that Durham byelection. It's time to beat expectations!

Ippurigakko

Twitter:

Results Forum IVR Poll (Oct 26): Cockatt (CPC) 48% Locke (LPC) 28% Turner (Green) 11% Meades (NDP) 8% http://ow.ly/eSgsJ  #YYCCentre

 

so....

CON 48% (-10)
LIB 28% (+10)
GRN 11% (+1)
NDP 8% (-7)

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Alberta, well that is not a surprise. I wouldn't be surprised by this or worried. These are not surprising number. We are not going to win this seat and never were. Even if the Libs do win it, it doesn't undermine us on the Prairies unless we let the Libs drive the narative. Messaging, messaging, messaging.

felixr

Arthur Cramer wrote:

well that is not a surprise.

You'd think it was the provincial party running and not the federal with levels of support like that. The main message of this byelection for the NDP looks like it will be one of continued irrelevance.

janfromthebruce

And our candidate was the last in place. I hope they go full guns.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

felixr wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

well that is not a surprise.

You'd think it was the provincial party running and not the federal with levels of support like that. The main message of this byelection for the NDP looks like it will be one of continued irrelevance.

You have the nail on the head. For all the talk about running in every part of the country, and being organzined like never before, I don't see how anything is different in this way under Mulcair. And the real question to ask is how did the NDP not land a truly high profile candidate? After all, Mulcair himself that people were contacting about running NDP who were, in his own words, "high profile". I don't trust the NDP brain trust nationally any more then I do the so called brain trust in my own riding.

Ippurigakko

there should be not surprise calgary is so strong liberal than edmonton but green can beat liberal/conservative in alberta anytime!

felixr

Arthur Cramer wrote:

felixr wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

well that is not a surprise.

You'd think it was the provincial party running and not the federal with levels of support like that. The main message of this byelection for the NDP looks like it will be one of continued irrelevance.

You have the nail on the head. For all the talk about running in every part of the country, and being organzined like never before, I don't see how anything is different in this way under Mulcair. And the real question to ask is how did the NDP not land a truly high profile candidate? After all, Mulcair himself that people were contacting about running NDP who were, in his own words, "high profile". I don't trust the NDP brain trust nationally any more then I do the so called brain trust in my own riding.

From what Dave Climengha has written on his blog, it seems like the NDP did approach several high profile names, but they turned the party down. Something still has to be done to avoid embarassment and ignoring the problem is just a non-starter for me. In the past, the NDP has tried to staff a Calgary office or organising crew. Now might be a good time to re-announce that process, make some noise about it, and make this an all-of-Calgary campaign. Being a byelection, the NDP can send its best organisers in and give said office the head start it deserves.

I think some politicians are also going to have to be willing to stick their necks out on this one and let it be known that they don't care if the NDP gets whupped, they care about the people of Calgary and its important that their voices be heard.

During the last leadership campaign, several candidates held events in Calgary. I'd like to see them back. I'd like to see the Western MPs caucus there, if not announce the whole party is going to caucus there for their next meeting. What if Calgary held the next NDP convention? Write off Calgary, sweep it under the rug, and you have written off roughly half the media market of Alberta and much of your credibility in the province.

 

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