Calgary-Centre federal by-election

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outwest

See Troy Media:

"The Liberals, NDP, and Greens to Blame for What the Tories are Doing to Canada"

 

(Sorry, I can't paste in the URL for some reason.)

addictedtomyipod

What on earth is the Green Party candidate telling Calgarians?  This party is for shutting down the tar sands are they not?  Are there a bunch of anti-sands people living in Calgary?  

bagkitty bagkitty's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Yes but the Green party is in third place and trailing by over 10 points-- I can't see how that merits predictions of a win.

I think it has to do with that word the pundits are so enamoured of... momentum - and it is not a prediction of them winning, just an increased chance of them generating an upset. Check the piece David Climenhaga had posted on Rabble a couple of days back.

Personally I think it will be a Conservative hold, but for the sake of discussion, if the dynasty is to be toppled, I would make the argument that it is most likely the Greens that would do it in this riding. I don't like the idea of the Greens taking the riding, but at the same time it is something that I find less repellent than the Cons holding onto it.... I will be out Monday voting for the NDP.

David Young

The comments by David McGinty about Alberta M.P.s are going to scuttle the Liberal Party's chance at winning Calgary Centre big time.

Can you imagine if voters planning on voting Liberal suddenly decide to vote Green instead?

 

autoworker autoworker's picture

David Young wrote:

The comments by David McGinty about Alberta M.P.s are going to scuttle the Liberal Party's chance at winning Calgary Centre big time.

Can you imagine if voters planning on voting Liberal suddenly decide to vote Green instead?

 

I encourage them.

Stockholm

Ippurigakko wrote:

but... forum is almost right (not 100%) about kitchener waterloo by-election.

They got the NDP win right in K-W but the final Forum poll still underestimated the Tories by about 5%...They had the Tories at 26% and they wound up with 31%

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

McGuinty's comments will probably drive Liberal votes to the Cons' Joan Crockatt, if anyone. Good discussion of this on P&P tonight, the former NDP strategist (Ian Capstick) says he agrees with McGuinty's comments. I do too. If McGuinty had to resign, think of how many Con MPs should have resigned their posts for making similar remarks - especially Stephen Harper with his Alberta 'firewall' comments, and his comments about Atlantic Canada being a 'culture of defeat' or something smilar. Rob Silver said the entire Conservative caucus has said something or other worthy of resignation at one time or other. Silver (I think he's a Liberal supporter) said McGuinty did not have to resign, he should have stood up and defended himself.

ETA: fucking validation error again!

JKR

McGuinty's comments were right on. The Conservatives are not acting in Canada's long term interests. As usual they're acting in the narrow self-interest of big Alberta oil to the detriment of most Canadians.

addictedtomyipod

I think we can all say that the 'automatic vote for Con' button that has been in play in Alberta has affected the quality of candidates that come out of that province.  When there is no competition to become an MP, it boils down to who has the most insider friends and access to money to get the job.  So many other Canadians that have moved there has had an affect on their political scene.  No longer can they run with a cardboard cut-out at a debate, but need to find actual talent and brains to run for MP's.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

JKR wrote:

McGuinty's comments were right on. The Conservatives are not acting in Canada's long term interests. As usual they're acting in the narrow self-interest of big Alberta oil to the detriment of most Canadians.

Yes, that is exactly right.

NorthReport

Sounds like the NDP candidate won last nite's debate in Calgary Centre, and by-the-way the Con candidate did show up for the debate, and she will win the by-election.

bagkitty bagkitty's picture

Well I am not in the least surprised by the result -- not happy either, but not surprised. I am disappointed that that the strategic voting argument works as well on the soft NDP support in the riding as it does - looks like a replay of the 2000 election - although at least Clark was able to topple Lowther that time. Guess it is back to setting the goal of breaking the 10% barrier for the riding association - again. Hopefully the boundary changes taking place before the next general election will up the chances of that - the inclusion of Inglewood in the riding should benefit both the Greens and the NDP.

I do, however, really hope that the spectacle of someone being elected with only a little more than one in three of the actual voters supporting her gets more play in the media. I know that it would require a preferential ballot to equitably deal with the by-election scenario that just unfolded, but I still think awarding the seat to a candidate that almost two thirds of those voting do not want might give a little support to arguments for PR in general elections.

I hope Dan Meades will be in it for the long haul. He has the qualifications to be an excellent candidate, and the final result in no way reflects the strides made by the riding association in getting the message out - their ground game was very professionally done, and deserved a much better result.

outwest

Dan Meades could be the greatest Canadian politician since sliced bread and it won't do him one sliver of good until the powers in all centre-left parties wake up and smell the coffee and start putting their heads together to win. Now here's someone who, albeit from another party, has seen the light.

 

 http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/bc-mp-joyce-murray-launches-liberal-leadership-bid-calls-for-co-operation-with-ndp-greens/article5665074/

NorthReport

This pipe dream keeps getting repeated over and over by the Liberals to no avail. Their day in the sun is basically over.

And it is not gonna happen because there is only one centre-left party.

The Liberals and the Greens are right-of centre and they would be much better off merging with the Cons, as they have more in common with the Cons than the NDP. The few left-of centre Liberals left in the party might want to consider sliding over to the NDP, as they would be welcome. 

NorthReport

Well said. Many successful politicians have several kicks at the can before they get elected.

bagkitty wrote:

Well I am not in the least surprised by the result -- not happy either, but not surprised. I am disappointed that that the strategic voting argument works as well on the soft NDP support in the riding as it does - looks like a replay of the 2000 election - although at least Clark was able to topple Lowther that time. Guess it is back to setting the goal of breaking the 10% barrier for the riding association - again. Hopefully the boundary changes taking place before the next general election will up the chances of that - the inclusion of Inglewood in the riding should benefit both the Greens and the NDP.

I do, however, really hope that the spectacle of someone being elected with only a little more than one in three of the actual voters supporting her gets more play in the media. I know that it would require a preferential ballot to equitably deal with the by-election scenario that just unfolded, but I still think awarding the seat to a candidate that almost two thirds of those voting do not want might give a little support to arguments for PR in general elections.

I hope Dan Meades will be in it for the long haul. He has the qualifications to be an excellent candidate, and the final result in no way reflects the strides made by the riding association in getting the message out - their ground game was very professionally done, and deserved a much better result.

janfromthebruce

Interesting assertion in this article Tories, Greens look strong after byelections

But for collusion between New Democrats and Greens in Calgary Centre, the Liberal candidate groused, he would have won.

 

So the candidate believes that the NDP and Greens colaborated here to bump the Green candidate. I could see that somewhat, especially after the McGuinty/Trudeau bozo comments about Albertans. Also interesting that no Lib has publicly sanctioned Trudeau for his stupid comments and responses to those initial comments from two years ago. So I guess within the party golden boy gets a free pass and they all close ranks to protect the chosen one.

I actually believe that what happen was it was both those things that stalled the Liberal from winning - that soft progressives switched their votes at the end to Green, and also more progressive conservative types. Liberals are poor losers.

 

 

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