Conservatives admit they are losing in Edmonton-Strathcona

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Conservatives admit they are losing in Edmonton-Strathcona

Ryan Hastman is shouldering the hopes of the federal Conservative Party, which desperately wants to take back Edmonton-Strathcona, the only one of 28 Alberta ridings they don’t hold. But to do so, he’ll have to knock off New Democrat Linda Duncan.

. . . .

“We're giving it our best. But to be honest, we're losing. I need help,” he wrote in the e-mail, first obtained by the Edmonton Journal, adding later: “This is going to be a tough race. Honestly if tomorrow was election day, we'd probably lose. The NDP are well organized, motivated and have a huge team. I see their campaign in action every day.”

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/tories-try-...

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gyor

I think people under estimate how wide spread this thing in Edmonton is. I think it goes beyond Linda's riding.

Lens Solution

Well it would certainly be nice to see Harper lose more seats in his own 'heartland' - imagine how furious he would be!  But it might be tough to take away any of the other Con seats in Alberta at this point in time.

Searosia

She's starting to run away with it I think...Linda is getting away with a few things that will boost her.  Probably should take Edm-Strath off the list of ridings to watch, it's approaching NDP safe seat status now.

Edm-Strathcona includes the university and all the students living on campass.  Students at the UofA trend very strongly towards the NDP...if they vote in the riding they are from (often rurals) then the NDP vote is kinda thrown away in a Conservative stronghold.  They live on campass for more than 6 months, so it's completely valid for these students to vote like in EDM Strathcona.  I saw on another forum she has a 'Vote Mobile'  helping these campass stranded voters get to polling stations. Linda's volunteers outnumber their conservative counterparts somewhere in the range of 5:2....there is no need for "Liberals for Linda" as most liberals in '08 that voted for Linda are now just plain ol' NDP voters in '11 (I beleive under Iggy, we'll see a further collapse of what's left of a western liberal vote...which would be great for the NDP and possibly greens here). And yes, it is spilling over into other ridings.

 

Quote:

 

Well it would certainly be nice to see Harper lose more seats in his own 'heartland' - imagine how furious he would be!  But it might be tough to take away any of the other Con seats in Alberta at this point in time

 

An urban calgary seat going NDP is a potential if we ever get engaged here.

 

Pogo Pogo's picture

Now if we only could win in PEI...

Anonymouse

I'm extremely skeptical. Maybe there is an anti-incumbent trend against Harper but my observation has been that whenever the Tories campaign in Alberta (and they almost never do...the lazy bums), they win. So anything short of 100% effort for the NDP is extremely dangerous.

Stockholm

I agree - take nothing for granted in Strathcona - but if the NDP does well in Edmonton, then Edmonton East will be the second shoe to drop!

Anonymouse

Stockholm wrote:

I agree - take nothing for granted in Strathcona - but if the NDP does well in Edmonton, then Edmonton East will be the second shoe to drop!

Agreed and if that happens you can pretty much count the NDP second in Edmonton Centre (which is a non-Tory leaning riding).

gyor

Searosia wrote:

She's starting to run away with it I think...Linda is getting away with a few things that will boost her.  Probably should take Edm-Strath off the list of ridings to watch, it's approaching NDP safe seat status now.

Edm-Strathcona includes the university and all the students living on campass.  Students at the UofA trend very strongly towards the NDP...if they vote in the riding they are from (often rurals) then the NDP vote is kinda thrown away in a Conservative stronghold.  They live on campass for more than 6 months, so it's completely valid for these students to vote like in EDM Strathcona.  I saw on another forum she has a 'Vote Mobile'  helping these campass stranded voters get to polling stations. Linda's volunteers outnumber their conservative counterparts somewhere in the range of 5:2....there is no need for "Liberals for Linda" as most liberals in '08 that voted for Linda are now just plain ol' NDP voters in '11 (I beleive under Iggy, we'll see a further collapse of what's left of a western liberal vote...which would be great for the NDP and possibly greens here). And yes, it is spilling over into other ridings.

 

Quote:

 

Well it would certainly be nice to see Harper lose more seats in his own 'heartland' - imagine how furious he would be!  But it might be tough to take away any of the other Con seats in Alberta at this point in time

 

An urban calgary seat going NDP is a potential if we ever get engaged here.

 

Really Calagry? Which seat would that be?

Lord Palmerston

An increase in the Liberal vote could help the NDP if it comes from the Conservatives...in the last federal election most of the Liberal vote in the West collapsed and went Tory.  Not really sure if it's on the radar though.

The problem for the NDP in Edmonton-Strathcona (and also, Saskatoon-Rosetown) is that they can't really depend on much more of a Liberal vote drop as it must be close to the floor. 

NorthReport

That appeal for help may have been a ploy - never, never underestimate the Cons capacity for lying and deceit.

KenS

In BC hinterlands the collapse of the Liberal vote in 2008 definitely hurt the NDP.

But I wouldnt assume that the same goes for urban Alberta. Not to mention that counter-intuitivley, a collapse in the Liberal vote huting does not necessarily mean that an increase in the next election will help the NDP in 2 way races with the Cons. There are just too many variables in the dynamic.

I'd be willing to hazard an expectation that in Vancouver Island North, a recovery of the Liberal vote- especially with Iggy as the flag bearer- is pretty likely to pull some votes from the Cons. But wouldnt want to bet on that for urban Alberta.

Lord Palmerston

Well certainly a collapse of the Liberal vote helped Linda Duncan prevail.  But for Edmonton East to go NDP, a Liberal vote increase would probably help.

Searosia

Anonymouse wrote:

I'm extremely skeptical. Maybe there is an anti-incumbent trend against Harper but my observation has been that whenever the Tories campaign in Alberta (and they almost never do...the lazy bums), they win. So anything short of 100% effort for the NDP is extremely dangerous.

Their campaiging is whipping their voter base into a frenzy and garentee them showing up at the polls, while otherwise promoting apathy so nobody else shows up.  Works well....but they struggle campaigning outside of that

And duh on the 'less than 100%' comment...I am meaning that there are enough (almost to the point of too many) currently giving their 100% to make this a NDP safe seat. 

 

Gyor - Calgary center and calgary north.   [url=http://www.rabble.ca/babble/alberta-and-british-columbia/plea-ndp]thread in the prarie forum[/url] goes further in on it. We're pretty heavily concentrated, just very apathetic. Last election, we did somewhat rally around the green candidate in city center though

 

Lord palmerston:

Quote:

An increase in the Liberal vote could help the NDP if it comes from the Conservatives...in the last federal election most of the Liberal vote in the West collapsed and went Tory.

Not sure if I agree with that, though I'm sure it depends on what riding you're talking about. Here, the libs actually collected under green to some extent.
Northern report

Quote:

 

That appeal for help may have been a ploy - never, never underestimate the Cons capacity for lying and deceit

Give a drive around the riding and do some sign counting...they are in deep trouble on this one.

 

Searosia

Kens:

Quote:

But I wouldnt assume that the same goes for urban Alberta. Not to mention that counter-intuitivley, a collapse in the Liberal vote huting does not necessarily mean that an increase in the next election will help the NDP in 2 way races with the Cons. There are just too many variables in the dynamic.

 

I know Calgary better so it might not be true in edmonton...but for the most case ndp/green/liberal (any opposition) tends to share a similiar vote segment. It's a little more apparent when you look at the provincial numbers where we collect to Alberta Liberal but quickly divide to green/NDP in federal elections.

We're probably a bit of an exception (alberta I mean)...Liberal works as a curse word here and it's really only in narrow pockets that the liberals see much for support. 

Anonymouse

Edmonton used to be called "Redmonton" because it voted Liberal whereas the rest of the province voted Conservative. In Edmonton, I would say that with the exception of parts of Edmonton East and Edmonton Strathcona that always go NDP provincially, the city is more "Liberal" politically. The difference between the Liberal and NDP voters, however, is that the NDP voters tend to be more committed to the NDP than the Liberal voters to the Liberals. So if the NDP can persist a few elections to come in 2nd place, the ABC vote can be made to coalesce around the NDP.

With a few historical exceptions, I do not believe there is much of a Tory to NDP swing. It is mostly a motivation and organisation of the ABC vote.

ETA: As Searosia mentioned, Calgary has its ABC leanings too. Calgary often elects Liberal mayors. Edmonton has elected NDP mayors (and Liberals).

Winston

Actually Edmonton had the nickname "Redmonton" before the Libs even had official party status.  As Official Opposition from 1982-1993, the NDP made great gains in Edmonton.  In 1986, 12/16 Edmonton MLA's were NDs.  Only 6 MLAs outside Edmonton WEREN'T Tories. That was what earned Edmonton the moniker.  My mom wore it as a badge of pride working at ND provincial office through the late 80s-early 90s when I grew up.

When Edmonton mayor Laurence Decore became Liberal leader, he succeeded in revitalizing his party fortunes to a disappointing (for them) 8 seats in 1989 and then in 1993 they successfully played the strategic voting BS and the NDs were annihilated.  The moniker persisted after the torch was passed.

Back in those days prov ND colour was magenta (ya...I know).  The "Red" referred to politics, not party colours.

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

KenS wrote:

In BC hinterlands the collapse of the Liberal vote in 2008 definitely hurt the NDP.

But I wouldnt assume that the same goes for urban Alberta. Not to mention that counter-intuitivley, a collapse in the Liberal vote huting does not necessarily mean that an increase in the next election will help the NDP in 2 way races with the Cons. There are just too many variables in the dynamic.

The facts show that the liberal voters who switched went in about a two to one ratio to the Cons.  That was true in Van Isle North (one of the largest rural ridings in the country) and inner city Burnaby.  In Van Isle North the Reform party ate the NDP vote among forest and mill workers in the '90's.  Those voters were looking for real change and they never envisioned Duffy at the trough as the result of voting for John Duncan.  I think there are still votes that the NDP can take back from the Conservatives.  

I also think that local candiates often make the difference between winning or losing not national trends or campaigns.

Ciabatta2

Hastman's plea is just a ploy to look lik ethe underdog and gain momentum, this isn't something Duncan should take heart from.

edmundoconnor

gyor wrote:

Quote:
An urban Calgary seat going NDP is a potential if we ever get engaged here.

Really Calgary? Which seat would that be?

Looking at the metrics, I'd have to say that Calgary West, with the U of C there, would be the NDP's best hope. Even with a klutz of a backbencher, too. But given the titanic lead here, today's students will be bouncing grandkids on their knee before the NDP becomes a real contender in Cowtown. Getting a rebate is going to be hard enough as it is. But never say never …

NorthReport

Absolutely, the political naivete is incredible. Harper must have gone to bed laughing every nite so far during the campaign.

 

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Hastman's plea is just a ploy to look lik ethe underdog and gain momentum, this isn't something Duncan should take heart from.

adma

edmundoconnor wrote:

gyor wrote:

Quote:
An urban Calgary seat going NDP is a potential if we ever get engaged here.

Really Calgary? Which seat would that be?

Looking at the metrics, I'd have to say that Calgary West, with the U of C there, would be the NDP's best hope. Even with a klutz of a backbencher, too. But given the titanic lead here, today's students will be bouncing grandkids on their knee before the NDP becomes a real contender in Cowtown. Getting a rebate is going to be hard enough as it is. But never say never …

Except that even by Calgary standards, the NDP showing's been abysmal there.

I'd rather look to the open seat of Calgary North Centre, where John Chan did well over the past few elections and reached 2nd in both 2006 and 2008...

Policywonk

Northern Shoveler wrote:

KenS wrote:

In BC hinterlands the collapse of the Liberal vote in 2008 definitely hurt the NDP.

But I wouldnt assume that the same goes for urban Alberta. Not to mention that counter-intuitivley, a collapse in the Liberal vote huting does not necessarily mean that an increase in the next election will help the NDP in 2 way races with the Cons. There are just too many variables in the dynamic.

The facts show that the liberal voters who switched went in about a two to one ratio to the Cons.  That was true in Van Isle North (one of the largest rural ridings in the country) and inner city Burnaby.  In Van Isle North the Reform party ate the NDP vote among forest and mill workers in the '90's.  Those voters were looking for real change and they never envisioned Duffy at the trough as the result of voting for John Duncan.  I think there are still votes that the NDP can take back from the Conservatives.  

I also think that local candiates often make the difference between winning or losing not national trends or campaigns.

Just look at the results in Edmonton-Strathcona the last few elections. BC voting patterns are irrelevant. The Liberal vote in E-S dropped for three elections straight while the NDP vote went up and the Conservative vote remained more or less constant.

gyor

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Hastman's plea is just a ploy to look lik ethe underdog and gain momentum, this isn't something Duncan should take heart from.

I don't buy that. It would be one thing to say it was going to be a tough close race, that could motivate, but saying your going to lose is demoralizing not supportive. Unless you work for the other side hehe.

Ciabatta2

gyor wrote:
I don't buy that. It would be one thing to say it was going to be a tough close race, that could motivate, but saying your going to lose is demoralizing not supportive. Unless you work for the other side hehe.

Actually, it is the complete opposite.  A 'tough close race' doesn't rally the troops; if anything, that language is defeatist in its vague attempt to save face.  You'd only use it when you know it's beyond you.  As always with political communication, think of hockey, second intermission, and what you'd rather use to get your guys fired-up and through the next period - being the underdog, always always helps.

"We're losing" is a battle-cry.  Particularly in the context of Alberta where every single other seat is a forgone conclusion.  Just think of the narrative if Hastman wins.  It all fits together perfectly.  The responses here are exactly what he wants.

The Conservatives are extremely controlled with their messaging, their communications, etc.  Everything they release is calculated and vetted and approved.  This was not a leak, this is not an accident and this was calculated and planned.

If anything, this type of thing indicates that they're a heck of a lot closer to winning Edm-Strath than they wish to admit to the public.

You only want people to think you're losing when you're really not.

 

gyor

Ciabatta2 wrote:

gyor wrote:
I don't buy that. It would be one thing to say it was going to be a tough close race, that could motivate, but saying your going to lose is demoralizing not supportive. Unless you work for the other side hehe.

Actually, it is the complete opposite.  A 'tough close race' doesn't rally the troops; if anything, that language is defeatist in its vague attempt to save face.  You'd only use it when you know it's beyond you.  As always with political communication, think of hockey, second intermission, and what you'd rather use to get your guys fired-up and through the next period - being the underdog, always always helps.

"We're losing" is a battle-cry.  Particularly in the context of Alberta where every single other seat is a forgone conclusion.  Just think of the narrative if Hastman wins.  It all fits together perfectly.  The responses here are exactly what he wants.

The Conservatives are extremely controlled with their messaging, their communications, etc.  Everything they release is calculated and vetted and approved.  This was not a leak, this is not an accident and this was calculated and planned.

If anything, this type of thing indicates that they're a heck of a lot closer to winning Edm-Strath than they wish to admit to the public.

You only want people to think you're losing when you're really not.

 

Were close can't be more defeatist then were losing by definition. Were close leaves the door open to hope, while leaving just enough fear to motivate without losing hope. Were losing makes Hastman sound weak and deseperate and can be moralizing to hear all the work that one (by one I mean con voluneeter) has worked for has achieved nothing.

NorthReport

Do not ever, ever trust the Harper Cons.

 

gyor

NorthReport wrote:

Do not ever, ever trust the Harper Cons.

 

It not about trust it is about optics.

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

Policywonk wrote:

Northern Shoveler wrote:

I also think that local candiates often make the difference between winning or losing not national trends or campaigns.

Just look at the results in Edmonton-Strathcona the last few elections. BC voting patterns are irrelevant. The Liberal vote in E-S dropped for three elections straight while the NDP vote went up and the Conservative vote remained more or less constant.

That is why generalizations from one region to another in this election are not really applicable.  So for instance in Burnaby Douglas last time the Liberals collapsed and came in third.  However the Liberals the two elections before that were the NDP's competition.  The relative strengths and weaknesses of the candidates is very, very important to voters no matter how many pollsters push and pull.  

We could easily wake up to a new Liberal MP in Burnaby Douglas if the voters who switched last time go back to the Liberals and some of Leung's ethnocentric vote is syphoned off to Low. Stewart has already lost key campaign members who couldn't work with him because they thought he was an arrogant control freak. His campaign can only hope he doesn't sound as condescending on the doorstep as he does in the privacy of his headquarters.  But it will be a good test since he firmly believes that Bill Siksay got elected on Jack's coattails last time and is running a very Jack focused strategy.  Never been tried in this riding so it should be interesting to see how many voters were Svend and BIll voters and how many the last few elections were voting for Jack.

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

There has been some talk about university ridings above but the election timing is such that they are rendered mostly irrelevant and likely not voting.  Universities are in the midst of exams and most will be done and gone somewhere fort the summer by the time the election is called.  Most would be able to vote in the advanced polls but that will take a sophisticated vote early campaign that convinces the students they have a stronger voice if they vote as a block not as scatterlings of Alberta.

scott scott's picture

That is why events such as the Vote Mobs at some eastern campuses and the Vote Mobile in Edmonton-Strathcona were organized. The idea is to motivate students to vote in general but also to vote by special ballot before they go to their home ridings. In many cases an NDP vote will count more in the mostly urban ridings that have college campuses than in the suburban or rural ridings that many students come from.

Although they may not percieve it this way, most students are actually "more resident" in their campus ridings that they are in their so called "home" ridings, as they spend more than half the year there. and after graduation are likely to more to yet another riding. An obstacle to students voting is that they are either not registered or are registered in the riding of their parents, in which case they need to reregister in the campus riding. By bussing students too the electoral office registration and voting by spacial ballot can all be done in one trip befer students return to thier original ridings.

Here is the Globe's "Riding to Watch" profile of Edmonton-Strathcona published yesterday.

Searosia

Ciabatta2:

Quote:

The Conservatives are extremely controlled with their messaging, their communications, etc.  Everything they release is calculated and vetted and approved.  This was not a leak, this is not an accident and this was calculated and planned.

 

 

lol you have a weird image of the conservatives, the all knowing conservative god I guess. Hastman has had a few slip-ups now, this wouldn't be out of place given his campaign so far. Give a drive around Edm-Strath and watch the signs, check out the unviersity, check out the volunteers Linda has...and then try telling me the conservatives are "heck of alot closer".

 

 

(I think adma:)

Quote:

I'd rather look to the open seat of Calgary North Centre, where John Chan did well over the past few elections and reached 2nd in both 2006 and 2008...

 

Chan's unfortunately bowing out this election and we'll see some of his vote collapse (he was the closest thing we had to a NDP leader here). I actually think the city center where we dip below 50% turnout is where you want to target. There has been absolutely no effort to engage Calgary urban short of the nenshi campagin...our Provincial seat goes liberal with a whopping 22% turnout...and went 2.5 - 1 Nenshi mayoral (our centrist gay muslim mayor ^^).  If you prefer, why not look at the two ridings we've been turning in 4000 NDP votes on under $850 campaign dollars...that you can even maintain a loyal voter base without being able to afford campaign signs is kinda impressive.

Quote:

Looking at the metrics, I'd have to say that Calgary West, with the U of C there, would be the NDP's best hope. Even with a klutz of a backbencher, too. But given the titanic lead here, today's students will be bouncing grandkids on their knee before the NDP becomes a real contender in Cowtown. Getting a rebate is going to be hard enough as it is. But never say never ...

The problem is we've been told never for 30 years...and have never once been engaged during that time. Go with calgary city center Green campaign under Natalie Odd in 2008....a good chunk of NDP volunteers jumped to her campaign last season (to be frank, I'm completely tired of being written off by federal NDP long before the campaign starts...after Pincott left, a good number of his campaigners said screw the NDP atleast greens admit we exist). I wouldn't pick out the riding in calgary by current NDP votes (our non-conservative vote splits between 3 parties, they're not that loyal and readily shift to whats best at the time)...I'd target the ridings based on apathy. General calgary make-up is 40% conservative, 60% other. General voter trend is 35/40 conservative shows up, 15-20/60 non conservatives show up, the rest have never in their life been engaged by a left alternative (can give personal campaign experience on that if you want, I've done 3 NDP and 1 green federally now...selling NDP values is simple, many already hold them. The hard part is getting them to vote since there's no attempt to engage).

edmundoconnor

Ciabatta2 wrote:

The Conservatives are extremely controlled with their messaging, their communications, etc.  Everything they release is calculated and vetted and approved.  This was not a leak, this is not an accident and this was calculated and planned.

So everything the Tories do is carefully planned and prepared? What about that young fellow in Guelph making a grab for the ballot box? Funny way to run a tightly-scripted campaign.

Ciabatta2

edmundoconnor wrote:

So everything the Tories do is carefully planned and prepared? What about that young fellow in Guelph making a grab for the ballot box? Funny way to run a tightly-scripted campaign.

Almost everything, yes.  If you need proof that Hastman's 'admission' was planned, contrast his media response to the email to the party's response to the Guelph incident.  They built upon his 'we're losing' cry, they shuffled and squirmed when asked about Guelph.  The former was calculated, the latter was an unfortunate accident.

Hastman's 'leak' achieved everything it was intended to do: media stories, a chance for him to respond in the paper and in the radio, and a 'wink-and-backslap' response from the non-Conservatives -- exactly what they were gunning for. 

Searosia wrote:

 Give a drive around Edm-Strath and watch the signs, check out the unviersity, check out the volunteers Linda has...and then try telling me the conservatives are "heck of alot closer".

I don't doubt that is the case.  Similarly, go drive around the Toronto riding of Davenport, check out Andrew Cash's volunteers, his excellent media coverage, the buzz around the NDP campaign, the orange wave of signs all over the riding.  And check back in for the results (read: Liberal win.)

 

Northern-54

Conservatives can be inept as can any political party from time to time.  But, in areas of the country where they are well-organized, as in Edmonton, it is probable that the Hastman admission was planned.  I have a daughter from the riding who has worked on NDP campaigns in the past and she says this time seems similar to last time and that the riding will be close.  There are more volunteers than necessary and the riding is awash with orange signs like last time.  What is different is that the riding has had effective representation (and Edmontonians have gotten used to having one opposition NDPer in the House of Commons) which is making it slightly easier.  On the other hand, there is a coalition to keep together and perhaps the Liberals have a candidate who can pull more Liberal votes his or her way.  I suspect not as my daughter could not tell me his or her name. 

I do not expect Davenport to be close.  However, if there is a swing to the NDP over the next two weeks, it will be campaigns like the one in Davenport than will swing into the NDP column and not ones where the people in the campaign are not working hard (for example, the one where the candidate took a holiday for a couple of weeks at the start of the campaign).  The campaigns that improve results from one election to the next or perform better than the national campaign are almost always those which get out of the blocks before their opposition.

bekayne

Garth Brasseur wrote:

On the other hand, there is a coalition to keep together and perhaps the Liberals have a candidate who can pull more Liberal votes his or her way.  I suspect not as my daughter could not tell me his or her name. 

It's a 20 year old college student

NorthReport

 

Matthew Sinclair

http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding/?riding=1205

 

bekayne wrote:

Garth Brasseur wrote:

On the other hand, there is a coalition to keep together and perhaps the Liberals have a candidate who can pull more Liberal votes his or her way.  I suspect not as my daughter could not tell me his or her name. 

It's a 20 year old college student

Ciabatta2

Garth Brasseur wrote:
  The campaigns that improve results from one election to the next or perform better than the national campaign are almost always those which get out of the blocks before their opposition.

Absolutely correct.   My apologies to anyone if my comments gave the impression that I'm belittling the NDP effort in Davenport.

The point I was trying to make was that "go drive around the riding, visit the office, read the papers" does not accurately indicate the likelihood of any election result.  It can be very misleading.

Right now, someone who did just that in Davenport would likely get the impression that the NDP is in contention or even winning.  Cash is pummelling the Liberals in terms of signs, media and attention.  Whereas the reality is that Silva will carry it relatively easily for the Liberals.

edmundoconnor

Thanks, Garth, for your measured analysis. A thought: If her campaign has more volunteers than it needs, then why doesn't it send them to Edmonton East or Edmonton Centre? Messrs Martin and Cardinal would be more than happy to have them. I guess it's because Linda's campaign doesn't want to take any chances.

If Davenport doesn't go orange on May 2nd, then it won't be the campaign's fault. Cash has been canvassing like a maniac since October 2009, and as Garth mentions, the riding is papered top-to-bottom with NDP signs (I read on Cash's Twitter feed that his campaign had put up 1200 signs – I've no doubt he's cruising well above 1500 now). Surprises happen in ridings where the riding associations have been organized, passionate and truly believe they can turf the incumbent (plenty of money and an upswing in the national polls also helps). Davenport has that, and I can see Silva's lead being chopped substantially. Active campaigns nearby (Parkdale-High Park, York South–Weston, and Trinity–Spadina) also boost the campaign's morale and make it more than one lone campaign fighting against the odds.

Northern-54

edmundoconnor wrote:

Thanks, Garth, for your measured analysis. A thought: If her campaign has more volunteers than it needs, then why doesn't it send them to Edmonton East or Edmonton Centre? Messrs Martin and Cardinal would be more than happy to have them. I guess it's because Linda's campaign doesn't want to take any chances.

It would be great if campaigns could just lend out workers to a neighboring campaign.  This is sometimes done but it is not easy as volunteers choose where they want to put in their time for a reason.  My daughter lives in the riding, for example, and would not find it easy to go and canvas in another neighbourhood.  Besides, she does not know Martin or Cardinal personally like she knows Linda.  A campaign manager cannot just send out volunteers next door.

On the other hand, when I was a younger man, I canvassed in several ridings each election.  There probably are some people who are doing that.

NorthReport

Trying to grab the ballot box was well planned and probably authorized by Harper. Michael Sona is a Conservative operative, and works for Con Fundy Royal, NB Junior Minister Rob Moore. And it worked as there will be no more of those special polls set up now.

 http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding/?riding=972

edmundoconnor wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

The Conservatives are extremely controlled with their messaging, their communications, etc.  Everything they release is calculated and vetted and approved.  This was not a leak, this is not an accident and this was calculated and planned.

So everything the Tories do is carefully planned and prepared? What about that young fellow in Guelph making a grab for the ballot box? Funny way to run a tightly-scripted campaign.

adma

Ciabatta2 wrote:
Right now, someone who did just that in Davenport would likely get the impression that the NDP is in contention or even winning.  Cash is pummelling the Liberals in terms of signs, media and attention.  Whereas the reality is that Silva will carry it relatively easily for the Liberals.

I wouldn't bet wholeheartedly on "relatively easily"--I can see the end result being more like the provincial Ferreira vs Ruprecht '07 shocker than federal Ferreira vs Silva '08.  (And both a strong Green candidate + the Green Shift cultural-class swing Liberalward skewed the picture in '08, remember.  I can see Cash repatriating a whole lot of that--even though he lacks Ferreira's "ethnic pull".)

Of course, if the perceived post-debate NDP boomlet fails to sustain itself: yes, status quo all over again.  But I certainly wouldn't consider 30%+ in three consecutive elections a sign of "out of contention" in Davenport.

Anonymouse

Anyone posting here needs to remember that the MP that Linda Duncan beat was Rahim Jaffer. That MP had always been a lazy, immature, goof-off. When Klein stepped down as premier all the ABC parties thought that this would mean major gains. Instead, the Conservatives started campaigning at the local level and years of negatives that the PC brand was carrying from Klein's drunken episodes and attempts to open up universal health care went away. The NDP and Liberals were decimated.

I'm not saying that is going to happen in Edmonton Strathcona, but Ryan Hastman is no Rahim Jaffer, if ONLY for the reason that he is actually putting in some work. Also, the NDP has never re-elected an MP in Alberta, same for Nfld, and same for Québec. So there are a lot of good reasons to keep throwing every last ounce of effort at Linda's campaign. It would be all too easy for her to lose.

Searosia

Garth:

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 But, in areas of the country where they are well-organized, as in Edmonton, it is probable that the Hastman admission was planned. 

 
Conservatives are less well organized here than you might think...enough years of no-contest ridings here have left them quite rusty as far as actual campaigning goes. They haven't bothered showing up to debates in most ridings, I'm not even sure if they'd know how to debate any more. They are particularily good and getting their vote to come out to the polls though...and have an amazing fundraising ability (mostly to finance the national campaign).
 
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On the other hand, when I was a younger man, I canvassed in several ridings each election.  There probably are some people who are doing that.

Happens frequently in Calgary (I'm active in Calgary city center and Calgary center north)...the recent municipal election had several of us from all over calgary working under one candidate, and the ties made there help on the federal level. I guess same goes for Provincial...a bunch of my fellow alberta libs jump to NDP for federal campaigns and we end up in slightly different ridings yet sharing same resources when we can.
Anony:
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That MP had always been a lazy, immature, goof-off. When Klein stepped down as premier all the ABC parties thought that this would mean major gains.

Not entirely sure on that...Klien stepping down was generally felt to be positive for libs in calgary but negative for them in Edmonton (though some people disagree with me on this point) Klien's presence kept Calgary a little more conservative and Edmonton a little more ABC.
Personally I think EDM-Strath is in the NDP safe seat territory...not saying they can slack on the campaigning there or anything, but I can't see the seat going Cons this election. There's a large amount of apathy within the Alberta left...when we do get engaged, it's amazing the numbers we actually show up in. Any election I've been involved in where the non-conservative option is ahead, we actually get far too many volunteers going. Linda seems to be tapping into the same apathy and drawing volunteers to no end.

David Young

Anonymouse wrote:

I'm not saying that is going to happen in Edmonton Strathcona, but Ryan Hastman is no Rahim Jaffer, if ONLY for the reason that he is actually putting in some work. Also, the NDP has never re-elected an MP in Alberta, same for Nfld, and same for Québec. So there are a lot of good reasons to keep throwing every last ounce of effort at Linda's campaign. It would be all too easy for her to lose.

Not so fast, Anonymouse!

While the NDP hasn't re-elected an MP in Alberta, in Newfoundland a New Democrat won a by-election in 1978 and was re-elected in the 1979 election, Fonse Faour, in Humber-Ste. Barbe-Baie Verte, but he lost in 1980.  And Thomas Mulcair won Outremont in the 2007 by-election and was re-elected in 2008.