Election forecasting - even if the election may be a while away...

108 posts / 0 new
Last post
adma

Malcolm wrote:

When the political dynamic shifts, it can shift very fast.  The ONDP moved from third party to government in two or three elections. 

As did the PCs who replaced them, lest we forget (though yeah, I know they have a Big Blue Machine precedent; but, still)

KenS

Stockholm wrote:

I think there is ZERO chance of Harper dissolving parliament himself. Why would he when it is so CENTRAL to the Conservative messaging that the Liberal-Socialist-Separatist coalition (sic.) is forcing an election Canadians don't want. If Harper pulled the plug himself when the NDP is still (officially at least) still waiting to read the budget before deciding whether to support it or not - I can see a lot of downside for Harper and no upside at all.

There is some specualtion that now that the actual non-confidence vote may come as late as March 29th - meaning a May 9 election.

That isnt just 'some speculation'- that has been the most likely scenario.... until all the noise about the scandals began to build.

The narrative is getting worse for the Cons with each passing day. How much it will stick is an open question, but the planned complete dominance of the Cons ballot question of 'stewards of the economy' is now out the door no matter what.

While the scandals have not really sunk in yet. So there is a lot of compelling reason to pull the plug ASAP- as soon as the optics are good enough. That will not stop Harper claiming as much of the ballot question as he could get by waiting. "We cant work under these conditions. Here is the important elements of the Budget that the coalition was preventing the government from doing what you elected us for." 

And I half expect a deal between Elections Canada and the Cons, which would have to be this week if its going to happen. Deal would end all the court cases and have a joint agreement that leaves the Cons looking like the rules that were broken inadvertently.

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

JKR wrote:

If the Conservatives try selling the idea that they didn't want an election the opposition can point out that the Conservatives started a massive pre-election campaign weeks before they instigated the election.

Yes, the 26 million dollars of public money spent in the last month to tell us how Stephen Harper saved the economy with his action plan certainly needs to be pointed out.

Particularly since Harper and Flaherty's initial plan was to do absolutely nothing, and their secondary plan was to use much of the public's money to bribe the banks to keep credit flowing.

That money could have been used to completely revitalize Canadian infrastructure, and the Banks, as creatures of the state, could have been whipped into compliance instead.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Lard Tunderin Jeezus wrote:

Yes, the 26 million dollars of public money spent in the last month to tell us how Stephen Harper saved the economy with his action plan certainly needs to be pointed out.

That should be emailed to all of the Opposition leaders to remind them, in case they've forgotten. They need to keep the Con's feet to the fire.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Cons  160 (solid majority)

Libs 60

BQ 53

NDP 35

 (my numbers will change every other day or so until the Writ is dropped)

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

My bold prediction:

  • Conservatives - Incremental net losses to the NDP and Bloc, partially offset by smaller incremental gains from te Liberals
  • Liberals - Incremental net losses across the board.
  • Bloc - Incremental gains from the Conservatives and the Liberals, possibly offset by a small number of losses to the NDP.
  • New Democrats - Incremental gains from the Conservatives and Liberals and possibly the Bloc.
  • Greens - Liberal Liz wins in Saanich - Gulf Islands if andd only if a herd of swine are seen soaring through the sky under their own power.

Standings post election:

  • Conservatives 125 - 135
  • Liberals 60 - 70
  • Bloc 50 - 54
  • NDP 45 - 60
  • Greens 0 - 0

adma

Maybe the best-case scenario is if Layton frames himself as the Ford to Harper's Smitherman.  (Don't laugh; don't cringe.  It actually makes a bit of sense.)

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

Insofar as Ford's positioning was "I'm with the ordinary folk and against the elites," then yes.

And it should be easier for Layton by virtue of being true.

Lens Solution

Boom Boom wrote:

Lard Tunderin Jeezus wrote:

Yes, the 26 million dollars of public money spent in the last month to tell us how Stephen Harper saved the economy with his action plan certainly needs to be pointed out.

That should be emailed to all of the Opposition leaders to remind them, in case they've forgotten. They need to keep the Con's feet to the fire.

I watched Question Period earlier today and I think Pat Martin and David McGuinty pointed out the huge amount of $$$ the Cons have spent on advertising.

adma

Malcolm wrote:

Insofar as Ford's positioning was "I'm with the ordinary folk and against the elites," then yes.

And it should be easier for Layton by virtue of being true.

And remember: it's *Harper* as the "elite" in question, more than Iggy per se.  Which, all in all, is a strategy not unlike what led to Ed Broadbent's sweeping gains in the West in 1988...

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

I think Harper annd Iggy as the elite since they both serve the same Bay Street masters.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Both of them (Harper and Iggy) support the Alberta Tar Sands projects. Iggy calls them a strategic Canadian reserve (or asset, I'm not sure which).

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

Boom Boom wrote:
Both of them (Harper and Iggy) support the Alberta Tar Sands projects. Iggy calls them a strategic Canadian reserve (or asset, I'm not sure which).

Nationalize them, and they'll become a strategic Canadian asset. But without so much as our own energy policy, they are nothing but Canada's biggest source of pollution.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Exactly.

NorthReport

What do people think would happen to NDP support if they said they were going to nationalize the Tar Sands?

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

NorthReport wrote:

What do people think would happen to NDP support if they said they were going to nationalize the Tar Sands?

Wow. You have more concern for "NDP support" than doing the right thing for Canada?

I much prefer LTJ's response to yours.

ETA: Correct me if I am wrong, but nationalization of the tar sands is the 'anti-imperialist' response, and therefore, the correct one according to babble.ca policy.

KenS

'Nationalizing' the Tar Sands would be a massive distraction.

In the first place, the resource is not privately owened, therefore not subject to nationalization.

The debate is about what happens with the resource. It is controlling how it is used [extracted] or not. Who 'owns' the exptraction production process is a distraction waved by people stuck on that banner.

If 'we' did 'own' the production process we'd just be shouting at the government as 'owners' as well as about their duty to control. The latter is the issue, and government ownership would just give them a deeper stake in not listening.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

KenS wrote:
'Nationalizing' the Tar Sands would be a massive distraction.

That's crazy. Nationalization is the only way the federal government can step in and clean the mess up.

KenS wrote:
In the first place, the resource is not privately owened, therefore not subject to nationalization.

It's the nationalization of the industry we are talking about - totally achievable.

KenS

I'm sorry BB, what you are talking about is anything but clear.

Explain how federal government ownership is the only way to clean up the mess.

What is required to clean up the mess is political will. That obviously is not easy. But the will to nationalize makes it easier or more acheivable some how? Please explain that.

Cleaning up the mess means you tell them to do it. The politics is not easy.

Nationalizing means you have to do that, PLUS own the sucker. Thats so easy. And the track record of governments in Canada owning resource extraction industries has been such an environmental model.

ilha formosa

Tar Sands nationalization surely deserves its own thread...in any case, would Jack bring it up next election?

As for election forecasting, looks like the NDP is on the rise in BC and Quebec.

 

NorthReport

We want projections based on including the Nanos poll, after all Nanos Research is Canada's most accurate political pollster.

 

- from the 308.com website

Quote:
Unfortunately, the new Nanos poll came out too late for me to include it in the projection, but I will do a write-up on the poll soon. In the meantime, here are the details to today's projection update:

 

 

 

Tories and Bloc poised for modest gains in snap election

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-and-bloc-poised-for-modest-gains-in-snap-election/article1949232/

NorthReport

Quote:
Method found for waterless oilsands extraction

Roughly 75 per cent of the bitumen can be recovered from the sand with the traditional methods, observes Painter - a figure he said his system can vastly improve.

"We can reclaim more than 90 per cent of the oil using our method - something I think would be very appealing to the big companies," he said. "Plus, we can do it without the waste that is currently produced."

Painter's technique basically uses ionic liquids - a type of charged solvent - in the place of water as a way to facilitate oil separation. The separation takes place at room temperature without generating waste water.

"Essentially, all of the bitumen is recovered in a very clean form, without any contamination from the ionic liquids," Painter said. "And because the bitumen, the solvents and the sand separate into three distinct phases, each can be removed separately, and the solvent can be reused."

Painter said his team was in contact with Syncrude about a year ago, but "they didn't seem all that interested in what we were doing."

Syncrude did not respond to calls for comment.

 

http://www.montrealgazette.com/health/Method+found+waterless+oilsands+extraction/4475085/story.html[\quote]

Krago

The Globe and Mail wrote:

Tories and Bloc poised for modest gains in snap election

 

By what incredible leaps of logic could the upcoming election -- endlessly speculated-about for months -- be considered "snap"?

NorthReport

Excellent observation Krago. Laughing

 

And probably indicative of the calibre of that  308.com seat projection forecast as well. 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

KenS wrote:
And the track record of governments in Canada owning resource extraction industries has been such an environmental model.

Versus what's happening right now? A new National Energy Policy that respects the environment, that has some teeth, would be leap years better than letting the current system of 'anything goes' run amuck.

ps: yes, I agree this deserves a separate thread.

ETA:

Why We Need To Nationalize Oil and Gas (from 2006)
http://canadiandimension.com/articles/1879

excerpt:

Naturally, in order to cut back drastically on U.S.-bound exports, let alone nationalize the industry, it will in turn be necessary to abrogate NAFTA. In our November/December Dimension editorial, we set out some more reasons for giving notice.

All very fine and well, you might say — but just how would a nationalized oil-and-gas industry deal with the current crisis differently?

In the first place, in a nationalized scheme, unexpected price fluctuations can be more easily buffered by the state. The beneficiaries will be those whose livelihoods depend upon the availability of oil and gas, rather than the big energy companies.

A nationalized industry can also be both mandated to conserve energy and ordered to divert money into R&D for sustainable alternatives. It will have no fears about competing with its own new energy-saving products. Moreover, a state-run industry can weigh the benefits and costs of exploration against the interests of citizens, instead of merely return on investment.

Granted, this is a made-in-Canada solution for what is in reality a world-wide energy crisis. But we hasten to add that other countries — Venezuela, for example — are offering their own solutions. Clearly Canada must stand with other nations against the U.S. solution — an endless series of wars in the Middle East and other oil-producing regions to maintain an iron grip on the world’s increasingly scarce supply of oil.

"Shut down the tar sands," NDP candidate urges:
http://oilsandstruth.org/quotshut-down-oilsandsquot-ndp-candidate-urges (from 2008)

Layton calls for halt to tar sands approvals:
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080907/election200... (from 2008)

Government must take responsibility for tar sands pollution:
http://www.ndp.ca/press/government-must-take-responsibility-for-tar-sand... (from 2010)

And... I'm not sure who these people are, but the Socialist Project _in 2008_ wrote:

- When NDP candidate Michael Byers declared that the (tar sands) projects should be “shut down,” he quickly drew a rebuke from party leader Jack Layton.

- The (NDP) party avoids policies that would offend Canada's business elite. A call to nationalize the oil industry and use its profits for social and economic improvements, as Venezuela is doing, could win broad support. Similarly, it could demand the nationalization of companies that threaten to close operations when profit rates decline. from:
http://www.socialistproject.ca/bullet/bullet143.html

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

NorthReport wrote:

 

WTF???

Solvents, saturated with salts? That's the answer? 

Not for the environment, it's not. Syncrude is ignoring these assholes for good reason. Why you think they are worthy of attention is another one of those stupefying questions we have about your motives here.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

On the eve of a possible election being called, I'm going to be at my most optimistc ever. Smile

My renewed forecast:

Conservatives 125

Liberals           86

BQ                  54

NDP                 41

Independent      2

I predict once the Writ is dropped (hopefully this week) that things on the ground are going to change in a very good way for the Opposition parties, and make a Coalition Government very, very likely.

welder welder's picture

I'm starting to think there will not be an election until next year.Layton could rightly say he getting things he wants from the Harper Tories and he's there to make things work...

 

Admittedly,it's going to be tough to plug his nose at the ethical issues surrounding the Con's...But I think it's going to be pretty tough to go out on the campaign trail turning these goodies down.Also...I think these ethical issues need to take a little more time to really get the Tories in trouble because I don't believe they are sticking yet.They might if the opposition waits 6 more months.

The other thing is,if we have an election,I'm fairly certain we are going to see a parliament with relatively the same numbers we see now,and very little is going to change.

By the way,is'nt this Con government starting to get the same whiff of the dying days of the Mulroney government?I mean,pretty soon the RCMP are going to be camped out at the Prime Minister's residence!!!

welder welder's picture

I take it back,folks!!

 

I'm watching Layton's presser right now and he say's he's not supporting the budget...

 

Now it depends on if everyone shows up for the vote on the budget...

no1important

The cons will get 165 seats and Gilles Duceppe will be moving into Stornaway.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

No changes after the Writ drops, folks, so get your predictions in now!

Tonight I'm not feeling optimistic any longer so here's my new prediction:

Conservatives    149

Liberals              75

BQ                     49

NDP                    33

Independent         2

Another minority government - with more seats than last time - and little co-operation, if any,  between the Libs and NDP in the new Parliament, meaning this new minority government will probably go for four years or more, and Harper again rules as though he has a majority. Frown  Iggy will retire or be pushed out before a new election is called.

ETA: If Harper rolls out his HST/GST harmonization package to Quebec ($2.2 billion) during the election campaign, he gets his majority with help from Quebec.

Pogo Pogo's picture

If this election is like the last few.  The Liberal Campaign will follow the following arc.

Big hopes will soon disapate as the campaign sputters.  Both the campaign themes and the leader will be lacklustre and unappealling.

At some point it will look like the party is ready for a free fall.  At this point old campaigners will come out of the woodwork to remind people of the Trudeau Pearson era.  Future leadership hopefuls will take this opportunity to show their loyalty by making headlines campaigning in far away ridings. 

The free fall will be averted and Liberal hope for reliving their past greatness will continue unabated.

Somewhere along this continuum a collapse will happen. 

edmundoconnor

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

 

www.grantrobertson.ndp.ca

www.tarasnatyshak.ca

www.brantmarc.ca

www.nettiewiebe.ndp.ca

I hate to be all old hippy- but be the change you want.

If we're doing shout-outs:

www.mikesullivan.ca

www.noah4palliser.ca

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

The Liberals have nobody to be excited about, except Martha Hall Findlay (dunno if I got the name right) and Scott Brison. But neither is a true progressive, just typical Liberal.

edmundoconnor

Findlay is slightly more adept at PR than the rest of the Liberals (I live in her riding, and her communiques are borderline-competent), and she makes a change from the elderly male crustaceans lining the opposition benches (witness the Christy Clark effect), but there's nothing under the hood.

wage zombie

My prediction:

Cons 143
Libs 67
Bloc 52
NDP 46

adma

This may be really bold 1990-Ontarioesque thinking (perhaps more long-term than short-term), but I'd almost be willing to test NDP potential in a seat like Whitby-Oshawa--well, the NDP might be more capable than the Liberals of knocking off Flaherty, at this point...

edmundoconnor

Predicting some giant-killing, are we, adma?

Oh hell, why not. I'll go for Tonks looking wobbly in YS—W. It's a long-ish shot, but with a few (thousand) Liberals floating over to the Tories, and Sullivan building on his support, it's not entirely out of the question. While Tonks won solidly last time, 46.6% of the vote is a ways down from the almost 60% he got in 2004. If his vote has yet to find a floor, then things could get interesting.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

adma wrote:
--well, the NDP might be more capable than the Liberals of knocking off Flaherty, at this point...

I would pay good money to see that happen. Money mouth

edmundoconnor

If that happens, Harper presses the panic button, and thousands of Mike Harris clones are set loose upon the land.

edmundoconnor

.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Surprised

Rob8305

My prediction

LPC-110

NDP-50

BQ-52

CPC-96

Will change this the morning that Harper goes to the GG to my final but before he gives his opening address.

KenS

I'm probably never going to make a seat prediction. I usually dont.

But when the Conservatives started setting up this election window their chances of getting a majority were unlikely.

But the events of the last month have moved those odds to remote.

[Ditto for the chances of the Liberals over 100, or CPC under 100.... with the latter maybe being slightly less remote a possibility. Like if everything possible went off the rails for the Cons. But the Liberals over a 100 would require miraculous breaks in their favour.]

adma

edmundoconnor wrote:

Predicting some giant-killing, are we, adma?

Oh hell, why not. I'll go for Tonks looking wobbly in YS—W. It's a long-ish shot, but with a few (thousand) Liberals floating over to the Tories, and Sullivan building on his support, it's not entirely out of the question. While Tonks won solidly last time, 46.6% of the vote is a ways down from the almost 60% he got in 2004. If his vote has yet to find a floor, then things could get interesting.

That's obviously a *lot* more possible than the NDP taking down Flaherty.  BTW, I feel a lot of 2008's NDP bump was a byproduct of Paul Ferreira's brief Ontario legislative stint "loosening up" the vote.  (Not in a bad way, mind you--quite the contrary.)

Slumberjack

My prediction:

Before:                                                                   After:

 

KenS

I think the dog is going to wake up.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

@Ken: Laughing

Slumberjack

It certainly won't be because they'll be open to sharing more of their available shade.  It'll probably receive a swift kick for the trouble.

KenS

moralist

Pages

Topic locked