Election forecasting - even if the election may be a while away...

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Doug

So still a nice day, really.

Rob8305

Boom Boom wrote:

This thread will be closed soon, so here's my latest:

Conservative    150

Liberals              55

NDP                   54

BQ                     49

(as close to a stalemate in the HofC as we will ever see)

Wow you're predicting a massive Harper win there:( That'd probaly equate to a 14-15 point popular vote plurality over his nearest rival. You think he's far stronger now than he was even in 2008 against Dion then?

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

This thread will be closed soon, so here's my latest:

Conservative    150*

Liberals              55**

NDP                   54***

BQ                     49

(as close to a stalemate in the HofC as we will ever see)

*the Cons will pull out their HST/GST equalization package for Quebec midway through the election thus saving some Quebec seats.

**Ignatieff will resign and go back to Harvard.

***Is this a new record for the NDP in seat count?

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I think this will be the nastiest campaign in Canadian history, and the Conservatives will pull out all the stops. And I think Canadians are generally too apolitical or just don't care, regarding the Budget - the Cons will campaign on the Budget, targetting the Opposition Coalition for defeating a budget that they claim all major economists support.

Dark days ahead. Frown

Slumberjack

Rolling out the economists won't do them any favours among the electorate.  They're glassed over enough with the budget as you suggest.

JeffWells

Feeling pessimistic today, so I'm presuming the media sells the Conservative spin, underinformed voters buy it, Ignatieff holds the Liberal base and the NDP suffer heartbreakingly close losses:

 

CON: 157

LIB: 73

BQ: 51

NDP: 26

IND: 1

 

MegB

Continued here.

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