By-Election Predictions / Results / Discussions for Feb 25, 2019

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NorthReport
By-Election Predictions / Results / Discussions for Feb 25, 2019

Make your predictions up until the polls close in the respective ridings

Burnaby South

NDP

Outremont

Libs

York—Simcoe

Cons

bekayne

York Simcoe-John Turmel wins

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

NDP wins Burnaby.  Nailbiter in Outremont, with a real possibility of an NDP upset.  York-Simcoe:  no winner-everyone too bored to vote.

 

pietro_bcc

Burnaby South: I think the SNC Lavalin controversy will save Singh and he will win.

Outremont: I think that the Liberals still win in a squeaker, but of all the by-elections I think that this one has the biggest possibility of an upset because the NDP have been working hard for this seat and have a great candidate, while I have heard nothing from the Liberals. I think the Liberals are taking this win for granted making them lazy and that hubris may cost them.

York Simcoe: conservatives win.

JeffWells

Agreed, I think Burnaby South is safely Singh's now because of SNC-Lavalin.

Outremont, though, I don't think will be close. Liberals in a walk.

robbie_dee

I agree with a prediction Wage Zombie posted in another thread. Jagmeet wins Burnaby South and pretty handily at that, but PPC shows surprising momentum. I could definitely see the Liberals end up finishing third (or worse). Libs pick up Outremont relatively easily, though, and Conservatives win York Simcoe.

Looking forward a bit, I think the NDP may get a bit of a boost in the polls this year with Jagmeet entering Parliament and Liberal scandals overtaking the NDP's bad news stories from last year. But without a substantial uptick in fundraising the NDP will remain an also-ran in the election this fall. It will likely lose most if not all of its seats in Quebec. Meanwhile the divided right will fail to capitalize on Trudeau's weakness and the Liberals will win another term, although they may be reduced to a minority. The Bloc will return to official party status and the Greens will win at least three seats.

These statements are not guarantees of future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Actual performance in future periods to differ materially from any projections of future performance.

bekayne

Apparently Mainstreet did a bit of byelection polling (details not publicly released)

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1100018692463702016

R.E.Wood

I agree with the bulk of predictions so far. Singh will win Burnaby South because of the SNC scandal weakening the Liberals. Liberals take Outremont, dealing a major blow against any chance of recovery for NDP fortunes in Quebec. Cons easily hold York Simcoe. 

But to carry on robbie_dee's forward-looking predictions, I think that whether or not Singh's arrival in Parliament generates any uptick for the NDP in the polls, the party will remain an also-ran in the election, losing almost every Quebec seat (possible survivors might be Boulerice, Brosseau and Caron), while also losing a scattering of others across the country (in Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and perhaps also some in BC). The party will have no significant gains anywhere to make up for the losses. The NDP will maintain party status but likely won't have more than about 20 seats. Singh will resign as leader (willingly or not) and much hand-wringing and soul-searching will ensue as to the purpose, intentions and future of the party as the survivors try to pick up the pieces and chart a new course.

Pondering

Why does everyone think the NDP has no chance in Outremont? Mulcair may have broken the Liberal hold but that doesn't mean people won't continue voting NDP particularly in a byelection. I suspect NDP voter are more motivated than Liberals to vote. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ndp-byelection-outremont-1.5028818

Sanchez, meanwhile, has been counting on support from the remaining local NDP heavyweights.

Montreal MPs Hélène Laverdière and Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet — two Orange Wavers who won't run in the next election — have been stumping for her. So too has Charles Taylor, the 87-year-old philosopher who has run for the party several times.

"If we can get our people, our base, out to vote … then we will win," Sanchez said during a recent interview at a cafe in the riding.

"In this byelection the NDP is actually the underdog," said Karl Bélanger, a former NDP strategist who worked closely with Layton and Mulcair.

"If the NDP finishes with a strong second place, that would already be a win for the party."

The most likely scenario on Monday, in his view, is for Outremont to return to the Liberal fold. Before Mulcair's win in 2007, the Grits had held the riding almost continuously since the 1935 election.

2007 was over a decade ago. I'm not saying the Liberal history doesn't matter at all but just because Mulcair is gone doesn't mean voters will now flip back to Liberal. They may, in part because the Liberals are in power now, but it is far from a given. 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

And really...how healthy is it for the NDP to accept the "2011 in Quebec was just Jack and Mulcair-it doesn't COUNT as an NDP breakthrough!" meme?  If the party agrees to that, if it buys into the notion that the 2011 gains weren't valid, weren't anything-what possibility is there for the NDP to ever make a comeback in Quebec in ANY future election?

Something REAL happened in Quebec in 2011.  Some of it was Jack...but it wasn't ALL Jack.  Psychic freeing occurred, if only for a moment.  It showed that realignment in Quebec is possible and that sustained realignment could be achieved if the party were to set up a real long-term organizational presence there.   That's not going to happen if the party accepts the toxic Lib-Con notion that 2011 wasn't in any way authentic or replicable and that what happened then can simply be forever erased from history.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

In 2011 the NDP had an impressive slate of candidates that screamed we are proudly left wing. The breakthrough happened and the Ottawa cabal muzzled the new MP's who had formerly been known for their out spoken views on issues. Instead of firebrand opposition we got "liberal government" in waiting from the Mulcair years. The vehicle is over 50 years old and needs to be retired to the museum. When the focus is on fundraising and not building the volunteer base one knows a socialist party that is supposed to appeal to the poor and marginalized has lost its way and become just another party interested in the middle class.

I think Singh wins and the Liberals finish third and the Greens and PPC get similar numbers under 10%.  I would love to see the NDP win in Outremont but have no clue what is happening on the ground.

blanche_neige

I predict Jagmeet will win by a significant margin, with the CPC guy coming in second.  

I don't know what's happening in Outremont, but I lived in that riding for years and helped out during the Mulcair campaign in 2007.  It was awesome, all hands on deck stuff, and happened at a time of significant instability and unpopularity for the PLC, when the BQ was one its way out.  Numerous people in the NDP's cauces are pessimistic about our chance of winning in Outremont, so my guess is that we're looking at a fairly lopsided loss.   Polls close at 9h30, so it'll be a couple hours still before there's some indication of which way it's headed.  

NorthReport

Do not all the polls close at the same time taking into consideration time zone differences? In Burnaby South the polls are open 7 am to 7 pm

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Do not all the polls close at the same time taking into consideration time zone differences? In Burnaby South the polls are open 7 am to 7 pm

Back in the olden days it was a 3 hour gap between Ont/Que and BC but since the ban on reporting early results was thrown out they've squeezed them together.

Unionist

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Do not all the polls close at the same time taking into consideration time zone differences? In Burnaby South the polls are open 7 am to 7 pm

Back in the olden days it was a 3 hour gap between Ont/Que and BC but since the ban on reporting early results was thrown out they've squeezed them together.

Well, the York-Simcoe results have started coming in (9:56 pm EST), and the Cons are at 54.8%, with 73 votes reporting. Still waiting for Outremont.

EDITED 9:58 pm: OUCH! 75.3% for the Libs, out of 81 votes.

NorthReport

Outremont

Libs 582

NDP 381

NorthReport

In Outremont the People’s Party has about 1/3 of the votes of the Conservatives however in York-Simcoe the People’s Party support is minimal 

pietro_bcc

So Simcoe and Outremont are decided for the Conservatives and Liberals respectively. But still no results for Burnaby and now I'm worried because the Liberals performed pretty well in both of the other ridings.

NorthReport

Less than 5% of the eligible voters voted in Outremont These results are basically meaningless

Mighty Middle

The CBC News Decision Desk is projecting that Liberal candidate Rachel Bendayan will be the winner tonight in the riding of Outremont

bekayne

Yellow Vest candidate in York-Simcoe running at 0.1%

NorthReport

Liberals in 2nd in Burnaby South but barely

People’s Party is killing the Conservative chances now taking more than 50% of their vote

pietro_bcc

At least Singh won in Burnaby, not an absolute disaster but still a loss of a seat.

NorthReport

The only reason the Liberals are in 2nd place is that the People’s Party has more than 50% of the Conservative vote in Burnaby South

That’s a staggering result and a disasterous nite for the Cons

Mighty Middle

NorthReport wrote:

The only reason the Liberals are in 2nd place is that the People’s Party has more than 50% of the Conservative vote in Burnaby South

That’s a staggering result and a disasterous nite for the Cons

I know Conservatives are going to point to York-Simcoe & Outermount and says the PPC had no traction there.However Burnaby-South has proven if you get a high profile candidate, you can take away a TON of votes from the Conservatives.

So if the PPC lines up dozens and dozens of high profile, big name candidates that is bad news for the Conservatives.

JKR

Maxime Bernier might be the only high profile big name candidate they need. Much like Preston Manning.

R.E.Wood

It's interesting that at this point (results still in flux) Singh has by far the weakest "win" of the night:

Burnaby South - Singh wins with 37.7%, against 26.4% Liberal, 22.3% Con, 11.7% People's Party.

Outremont - Liberal 42.2%, NDP 26.3%, Con 6.3%

York-Simcoe - 52.5% Con, 30.5% Liberal, 7.3% NDP

Final numbers may well vary, but I'd say that under 38% is the weakest win the NDP could have possibly pulled off in Burnaby South, especially given that the party poured all its resources into the riding and Singh campaigned there for months in advance of the vote, and this result won't give the party any confidence heading into the general election.

Mighty Middle

R.E.Wood wrote:

Final numbers may well vary, but I'd say that under 38% is the weakest win the NDP could have possibly pulled off in Burnaby South, especially given that the party poured all its resources into the riding and Singh campaigned there for months in advance of the vote, and this result won't give the party any confidence heading into the general election.

I read somewhere on twitter that the turnout in Burnaby-South was under 40%, so that might have something to do with the results.

 

R.E.Wood

Updated numbers for all the ridings - it seems Singh has hit 38%. Still a low-bar "win":

Results so far:

Burnaby South (145 of 196 polls reporting)

  • NDP – Jagmeet Singh (38 per cent)
  • Liberal – Richard T. Lee (26 per cent)
  • Conservative – Jay Shin (22 per cent)
  • People’s Party – Laura-Lynn Thompson (11 per cent)

York-Simcoe (105 of 136 polls reporting)

  • Conservative - Scot Davidson: 52 per cent
  • Liberal - Shaun Tanaka: 31 per cent
  • NDP - Jessa McLean: 7 per cent
  • Green Party - Mathew Lund: 3 per cent

Outrement (115 of 170 polls reporting)

  • Liberal - Rachel Bendayan: 43 per cent
  • NDP – Julia Sanchez: 26 per cent
  • Green Party - Daniel Green: 13 per cent
  • Bloc Québécois - Michel Duchesne: 9 per cent
  • Conservative - Jasmine Louras: 7 per cent

bekayne

Mighty Middle wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

The only reason the Liberals are in 2nd place is that the People’s Party has more than 50% of the Conservative vote in Burnaby South

That’s a staggering result and a disasterous nite for the Cons

I know Conservatives are going to point to York-Simcoe & Outermount and says the PPC had no traction there.However Burnaby-South has proven if you get a high profile candidate, you can take away a TON of votes from the Conservatives.

So if the PPC lines up dozens and dozens of high profile, big name candidates that is bad news for the Conservatives.

They'd better not point to Outremont. It's their 2nd worst result there since 1935.

josh
lagatta4

I suspect that some NDP voters went Green...

And Outremont riding isn't only the mansions in upper Outremont. It encompasses several diverse neighbourhoods.

I'm down in dumps. Worked for Julia all day yesterday.

Webgear

What would the results looked like under a PR system for the three ridings? 

WWWTT

lagatta4 wrote:

I suspect that some NDP voters went Green...

And Outremont riding isn't only the mansions in upper Outremont. It encompasses several diverse neighbourhoods.

I'm down in dumps. Worked for Julia all day yesterday.

You’re a real trooper lagatta! I hope Julia took you out for dinner last night. Her team deserved it!

Pondering

How is 38% a "low-bar" win?  What is the average for winning a seat? Why put "win" in quotes? Is it not a real win? Did he cheat? 

pietro_bcc

Winning by 12% is a perfectly fine win, especially considering the margin was a lot more narrow in the general.

lagatta4

No, both the candidate and the key helpers and the rest of the volunteers were utterly knackered and wanted only to go back home in the horrible weather. I did have both a bottle of wine and some CHEESE  waiting as well as a green salad, though scarcely made a dent in any of those. I crawled into bed with my wee black cat, Livia.

NorthReport

Never mind the NDP haters like Wood whose posts are non-stop nonsense
Singh could form a majority government and he would find something negative to say about it

cco

Not only was the weather miserable, I caught some kind of cold or flu while watching the polls. Democracy exacts a high price sometimes.

Unionist

*

R.E.Wood

NorthReport wrote:
Never mind the NDP haters like Wood whose posts are non-stop nonsense Singh could form a majority government and he would find something negative to say about it

You're such a joke, NR. I'm absolutely not an "NDP hater" - I've voted for the NDP almost every single opportunity I've had for the last nearly-30 years (almost - not all). But I absolutely think Singh is a terrible leader and the party faces a major disaster in October. That has no correlation at all with being an "NDP hater", except in your bizarro hyper-partisan view.

Unionist

lagatta4 wrote:

And Outremont riding isn't only the mansions in upper Outremont. It encompasses several diverse neighbourhoods.

That's somewhat of an understatement, no?

Outremont is one of the lowest-income federal ridings in Canada.

The 2016 census results showed that the median household income in Outremont riding was $49,070 - not quite among the 10 poorest, which ranged from $43K to $48K, but close. The overall Canadian household average was over $70,000.

Source: Census 2016 and the House of Commons: Income

wage zombie

R.E.Wood wrote:

You're such a joke, NR. I'm absolutely not an "NDP hater" - I've voted for the NDP almost every single opportunity I've had for the last nearly-30 years (almost - not all). But I absolutely think Singh is a terrible leader and the party faces a major disaster in October. That has no correlation at all with being an "NDP hater", except in your bizarro hyper-partisan view.

What would you like to see from Singh over the next eight months?

R.E.Wood

wage zombie wrote:

What would you like to see from Singh over the next eight months?

Thanks for the question, wage zombie. I'd like to see lots of things from Singh. In no particular order:

- I want him to be up-to-date on all the issues, and on all party policies, so he can avoid looking like a deer in the headlights during media interviews, avoid having to ask other MP's the answers to the tough questions, and avoid contradicting party policy.

- I want him to make decisive decisions that reflect a progressive, left viewpoint, rather than his usual delay tactics and wishy-washy statements.

- I'd love if he stopped being "deeply offended", "deeply disturbed" or "deeply disappointed" over every little thing. Save the hyperbole for when it's actually appropriate - otherwise he's the "boy who cried wolf".

- I'd like him to reinstate Erin Weir as an NDP MP and allow him to run in the next election as the NDP candidate, and at the same time he needs to make amends with most of the NDP in Saskatchewan, where he is currently unwelcome -- an unacceptable state for a federal leader of the party to have placed himself. (Oh, and he could do the same thing in Alberta, too.)

- I'd like him to work harder in Quebec. The NDP is on the verge of losing every single seat in the province - that has to be taken more seriously.

- I'd like him to stop dismissing the prairie provinces entirely (when he isn't insulting them specifically), and value NDP voters in those provinces, and the potential to hold the current NDP seats in those provinces, as well as the opportunities to elect more NDP MP's in those provinces. Singh has written the prairie provinces all off, which I find "deeply offensive" (to borrow a phrase!).

- I'd like him to demonstrate some of his self-professed talents as a fundraiser, which have been sadly lacking since he won the leadership.

- I'd like him & the party itself to craft a genuinely compelling platform that will motivate and excite progressive people. Stop with the Doom-and-Gloom (I'm sick of him telling us how terrible things are in the country) and offer a set of exciting, positive policies to move Canada forward, and don't do it with the moronic "love and courage" pablum. We don't need meaningless platitudes. We need a concrete platform for progress and visionary change that will lead the world, benefit all of our country, and not leave behind workers and people in provinces Singh doesn't seem to value very much.

- I'd like him to have clear lines based on principle, not political expediency. For example, his contradiction between his support for LNG and his refusal to support Trans-Mountain. How does he justify one and not the other? (Well, I know how he tries to - I've seen him talk about it, but political expediency is the true answer.) People like Svend Robinson have made an unequivocal stance based on principle... so have people like Rachel Notley, who's made a stand based on pragmatism... like them or not - agree with their viewpoints or not - they have made clear unwavering choices. Singh is a fence-sitter, and not a particularly good one IMO.

There's probably a lot more I'd like him to do... or not do... but those are the things that come immediately to mind.

Unionist

Is it possible that people could have these conversations in an appropriate thread, where others can actually find their posts and reply to them if they so wish? Please consider reposting the above in Jagmeet Singh heads to Parliament, or any of the many other more relevant threads. Thanks.

EDITED TO ADD: Never mind - I've re-posted it myself in the other thread - thanks for this, R.E. Wood!

Unionist

[Originally posted in this thread.]

kropotkin1951 wrote:

What I find interesting is the fact that Singh as a national leader obviously affected the vote in Burnaby South. In Outremont the voter turmout was 21.4% and in York-Simcoe it was 19.9%  In Burnaby South the turnout was low but at 29.9% it was a 50% bump over the other by-elections. Clearly the voters in Burnaby were more engaged in these by-elections.

"More engaged"?? Not sure what that means. Surely you've read lagatta's graphic description of the hazardous conditions on Montréal sidewalks in recent days. Many people, especially older folks who have more time and are more likely to vote in a byelection, simply stayed home. Especially when everyone knows what the result will be anyway.

In 2007, by contrast, 37% voted in the Outremont byelection. I guess we were a lot more engaged then?

lagatta4

Yes, I knew there were huge wage - and wealth - differences across Outremont riding - one need only take the 160 Barclay bus from Outremont to some very rundown areas in CDN to see them - but didn't know how poor Outremont riding was. Papineau has been the poorest urban riding in Canada - some modest gentrification in Villeray must have let it move up a notch. Bourassa is Montréal-Nord, perhaps parts of St-Michel? They really need the Pink Line.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Unionist wrote:

[Originally posted in this thread.]

kropotkin1951 wrote:

What I find interesting is the fact that Singh as a national leader obviously affected the vote in Burnaby South. In Outremont the voter turmout was 21.4% and in York-Simcoe it was 19.9%  In Burnaby South the turnout was low but at 29.9% it was a 50% bump over the other by-elections. Clearly the voters in Burnaby were more engaged in these by-elections.

"More engaged"?? Not sure what that means. Surely you've read lagatta's graphic description of the hazardous conditions on Montréal sidewalks in recent days. Many people, especially older folks who have more time and are more likely to vote in a byelection, simply stayed home. Especially when everyone knows what the result will be anyway.

In 2007, by contrast, 37% voted in the Outremont byelection. I guess we were a lot more engaged then?

I would think so with a high profile Liberal defector taking on the federal party in one its strongholds. I am sorry I did not factor in the nasty Montreal weather. I am sorry i pissed you off again I was merely replying to someone who was saying that the presence of Singh had no real effect on the voters.

 

lagatta4

You didn't piss me off at all. And I'm always interested in your reports from your part of the world!