By-Elections 2014 Edition

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David Young
By-Elections 2014 Edition

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David Young

Olivia Chow will resign today (Wednesday, March 12th) as M.P. for Trinity-Spadina.

This means 3 seats will be vacant at present.

MacLeod has been vacant since November 9th, while Fort McMurray-Athabasca became vacant on January 17th.

I'm wondering if Harper will delay the calling of these by-elections in the hopes that the Liberals and NDP will battle amongst themselves over Trinity-Spadina for as long as possible, knowing that the two Alberta seats will vote Conservative whenever he sets the date.

Or will he just call them for the ones in Alberta, and let Trinity-Spadina wait for 6 months?

The deadline for MacLeod is April 9th.

 

nicky

This may be a very dangerous by-election for the NDP.

Although Oliva's majority in 2011was massive, T-S is hardly a safe seat. Rosario Marchese barely won it a few months later in the provincial election and relentless condo development is changing the demographics.

The Liberals are high in the polls federally in Toronto at the moment and will throw everything they can at T-S to neutralize the NDP as an alternative to Harper.

Much may depend on the NDP's choice of candidate. If we run an apparatchik like Joe Cressy (who is openly pursuing the nomination) we will almost certainly lose.

However.......

https://www.hilltimes.com/2014/03/10/page-to-join-mulcair-in-yukon-to-ta...

 

 

 

 

Brachina

 If Page lives in Toronto that would be a home run.

toaster

A safe bet would be to go with someone like Churley, although I hope Hollett tries for the nomination.

Stockholm

By all accounts the Liberal candidate in Trinity-Spadina will be...sad trombone please....Christine Innes the no-name Liberal hack who ran and lost in 2008 and 2011 and whose husband Tony Ianno ran in 1988, 1993, 1997, 2004 and 2006 (He has since been hauled before the Ontario Securities Commission for some sort of insider trading...).

You literally have to go back THIRTY YEARS to 1984 for the last time the federal Liberal candidate in TS was not either Tony Ianno or his wife Christine Innes. You'd think they could do better.

"On March 9, 2010, the Ontario Securities Commission made allegations of market manipulation against Ianno.[9] Ianno has denied the charges.[10] The matter was heard before the commission in September 2011.[11] Ianno accepted a plea deal which had him pay a $100,000 fine and was banned from working as a stock trader for five years.[12]

Ianno is currently being investigated for insider trading in the shares of Aurelian resources.[13]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Ianno

Stockholm

Brachina wrote:

 If Page lives in Toronto that would be a home run.

He lives in Ottawa and I believe Page is a native Ottawan.

David Young

When is municipal voting day in Ontario?

After reading some of the comments on Olivia's entry into the Toronto mayoral race, I'm really becoming convinced that Harper will wait to call the by-election as close to that date as possible to cause the Liberal and/or New Democrat supporters to split their efforts.  He knows that the Conservatives will do as badly there as they did in the Toronto Centre by-election last year.

 

Hunky_Monkey

The Liberals are going to go after Trinity Spadina big time!

What about Mike Layton?  

mark_alfred

Here's the Wikipedia page on it.  They speculate either Hollet, McQuaig, or Adam Vaughan.  On Twitter I haven't seen much activity from McQuaig, but there's been plenty from Hollet.  So, I'm thinking she'll definitely try.  I don't think Vaughan would go for it.  I also don't think Layton would go for it.  I think Innes may try for the Liberals, but I suspect the Liberals will parachute someone in.  Who knows, maybe the NDP will parachute someone in too.  Time will tell.

Ottawa Centre-Left

Liberals on twitter have been spreading the rumour that the riding has been 'promised' by the NDP to Joe Cressy, as if the NDP nominates candidates the same way Liberals do (and he isn't busy enough with the Chow campaign!)

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I really wish had put the party and Canadians ahead of the Mayoral campaign; if the NDP loses to the Libs, this will be an absolutely CRUSHING defeat and completely GAURANTEE a disasterous 2015 for the NDP if the NDP loses the by-election. I am very dismayed by this. I certainly wish her luck, but I am not happy at all she made this jump. This was a very bad decision for all Canadians potentially; the LAST thing this country needs is HARPER OR TRUDEAU!

Aristotleded24

Arthur Cramer wrote:
I really wish had put the party and Canadians ahead of the Mayoral campaign; if the NDP loses to the Libs, this will be an absolutely CRUSHING defeat and completely GAURANTEE a disasterous 2015 for the NDP if the NDP loses the by-election. I am very dismayed by this. I certainly wish her luck, but I am not happy at all she made this jump. This was a very bad decision for all Canadians potentially; the LAST thing this country needs is HARPER OR TRUDEAU!

Art, this could actually turn out positive for the NDP. The last NDP mayor of Toronto, David Miller, had to rely on support from Liberals, and it was for that reason that he treated McGuinty with kid gloves when McGuinty failed to act in Toronto's best interests, most notably on provincial downloading to municipalities. Hypothetical polls about the mayorality of Toronto had Chow doing very well even if Bob Rae was in the race. That tells me that, while there will certainly be Liberals who support her, that Chow can win the election on her own without any help from the Liberal party machinery. If that happens, it will be a huge blow to the Liberals in one of their last standing bastions in the country.

Winston

Yeah...just like the loss of Winnipeg North portended a CRUSHING defeat of the NDP in 2011...

Chill out, Art!  :)

Arthur Cramer wrote:

I really wish had put the party and Canadians ahead of the Mayoral campaign; if the NDP loses to the Libs, this will be an absolutely CRUSHING defeat and completely GAURANTEE a disasterous 2015 for the NDP if the NDP loses the by-election. I am very dismayed by this. I certainly wish her luck, but I am not happy at all she made this jump. This was a very bad decision for all Canadians potentially; the LAST thing this country needs is HARPER OR TRUDEAU!

Winston

Chow won't be doing it on her own. She'll be getting lots of help from none other than ... Warren Kinsella.

link - sixth sentence from the bottom

 

Aristotleded24 wrote:

That tells me that, while there will certainly be Liberals who support her, that Chow can win the election on her own without any help from the Liberal party machinery. If that happens, it will be a huge blow to the Liberals in one of their last standing bastions in the country.

PrairieDemocrat15

By-elections are meaningless. The NDP's preformance in the 2011 federal and 2013 BC pre-election by-elections did not foreshadow the party's results in the actual contests.

Besides, even a guaranteed loss of T-S would be worth the decent shot Olivia has at the mayor's chair.

Aristotleded24

Winston wrote:
Chow won't be doing it on her own. She'll be getting lots of help from none other than ... Warren Kinsella.

There's a difference between having Warren Kinsella's wife as part of the campaign team and relying completely on the Liberal machinery.

Stockholm

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

The Liberals are going to go after Trinity Spadina big time!

You would think so, yet it seems their candidate will be Christine Innes the Grade Z candidate who lost in the last two elections and whose husband is being charged with insider trading. If that is the best they can do - I'm not sure they are actually making that big an effort.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Trinity-Spadina Byelection Not Necessarily 2015 Election Preview, http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/03/12/trinity-spadina-byelection_n_4951384.html?ref=topbar. Ari, you may be right.

Ottawa Centre-Left

Stockholm wrote:

By all accounts the Liberal candidate in Trinity-Spadina will be...sad trombone please....Christine Innes the no-name Liberal hack who ran and lost in 2008 and 2011 and whose husband Tony Ianno ran in 1988, 1993, 1997, 2004 and 2006 (He has since been hauled before the Ontario Securities Commission for some sort of insider trading...).

Shortly after she announced she is running for the nomination, she has been openly barred from ever running anywhere by Trudeau. Guess they have someone else in mind!

http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2014/03/13/trudeau-blocks-candidacy-of-...

theleftyinvestor

Well if Freeland wants to run for the Liberals again in University-Rosedale, and Mulcair thinks McQuaig should run again in Spadina-Fort York, it might be awkward if Hollett won Trinity-Spadina. As she would then either have to choose between competing with McQuaig again for the Spa-FY nomination, or running against incumbent Freeland in Uni-Rose.

Then again if Freeland is 100% sure of taking Uni-Rose, maybe McQuaig would be happy to run again in the reduced Toronto Centre, which will once again have no incumbent.

nicky

So Trudeau says he has vetoed Innes's candidacy because her husband hasn't played nice with Freeland?

A more obvious explanation is that Innes had already sewn up the nomination and the only way to deny her was to eliminate her from the race altogether.

The Liberals have done the cynical calculation that she is a weak candidate , having been swamped by Chow, and that they prefer to parachute in a supposed star candidate like they did with Freeland.

So much for Trudeau's professed "open nominations" BS.

 

Brachina

 Reading the article its clear that Innes real crime is that she refused to conceed a future riding to Freeland nomination contest.

 

 And the green light committee is Trudeau breaking his promise on open nominations through the back door.

Brachina

http://t.co/tn63tj27BP

 

 This is Innes response to what Justin has just done to her. Honestly I think the Liberals just fucked up thier shot at taking Trinady Spadina from the NDP with this. Its ironic that Justin has said this was to avoid in fighting when it just caused it instead.

 And its not the TS nomination they had a problem with, its the nomination process in the new riding where Freeland will run that Justin objects too.

 

 I will also note we only have the word of a few Freeland partisans that this happened, convient isn't it. This will blow up in the Liberals faces.

 

 Oh and this isn't just occurring in TS its nation wide.

 

 Open nominations LMFAO. Just like when George Smithermen was pressured not to run against Freeland.

 

 Justin is breaking promises at a record breaking pace. He's not even in government!

janfromthebruce

another new liberal "open nomination" rule is that any leadership liberal with a leader debt has to be all paid up to get red I mean green lighted. So JT handily eliminants any challengers to his throne, and also those he may consider dead weight to his modernization project.

Note that and mentioned in the Lib Party of Cnd thread that Liberal MP Marc Garneau is recreating himself into a very undiplomatic attack dog. One wonders had hard the TJ leash is pulling on his neck to ensure his obediance and loyality to Trudeau (and be exempted from the new rule of no leadership debt to get green lited). Sad to see the 1st Cnd in Space with these credientals - C.C., CD, Ph.D., F.C.A.S.I., demean himself in this way.

As an aside, the NDP leader has done fundraisers with unsuccessful leadership hopefuls as a way of bringing the caucas and party together.

I also understand that this is not the only handpicking in the "open nomination" scam. Des militants mécontents des nominations libérales fédérales

For late night giggles:

Ian Gillespie ‏@IanRGillespie 6h

Unless it's Christine Innes. #irony RT @liberal_party Know a woman in your area who is a great leader? Invite her to run for office in 2015.

And

Brandon Stevens ‏@StevensParker 6h

Trudeau isn't letting Innis run. Interesting take on open nominations. Maybe her favourite virtue isn't the same as JT's. #cdnpoli #TOpoli

Hello Ladies (well the select chosen)

 

Brachina

Lmfao Jan.

janfromthebruce

Take note that now there is a star name floating for the Liberals. Funny how quickly that happened.

Martin Regg Cohn ‏@reggcohn 12h

Hearing lawyer Glenn Wheeler seeks fed Lib nomin in Trinity-Spadina vacated by Olivia Chow after Justin bans @Christine_Innes

http://glennwheeler.ca/bio.html

So no wonder that they had to prevent Innes who would have had the votes of riding party members in the "open nomination" race. 

Incidently, Glenn is a member of the Liberal Toronto Centre riding executive. The riding in which Freeland was parachuted in. Perhaps a nice backroom deal was made, knowing that rumours of Chow strongly considering running for mayor opened up a deal: don't run against our parachute candidate for the nomination and we'll ensure the nomination for you in Trinity Spadina.

Same old Liberal party with fresh glossy red paint.

 

 

Ottawa Centre-Left

 

That makes sense. Since yesterday it has sounded like the fix was in for riding candidate, now we know who it was for.

Also of interest, 308 has started the Trinity-Spadina riding analysis: http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/by-election-barometer.html?spref=tw

Prior to known candidates the situation is assessed as 'likely NDP'.

janfromthebruce wrote:

Take note that now there is a star name floating for the Liberals. Funny how quickly that happened.

So no wonder that they had to prevent Innes who would have had the votes of riding party members in the "open nomination" race. 

Incidently, Glenn is a member of the Liberal Toronto Centre riding executive. The riding in which Freeland was parachuted in. Perhaps a nice backroom deal was made, knowing that rumours of Chow strongly considering running for mayor opened up a deal: don't run against our parachute candidate for the nomination and we'll ensure the nomination for you in Trinity Spadina.

Same old Liberal party with fresh glossy red paint.

Stockholm

I would not describe Glenn Wheeler as a "star" in any way shape or form...in fact I would consider him just about the weakest candidate the Liberals could possibly run. He is a low profile middle aged white guy who is head of a small union and by being one of the few partisan Liberals who is also a union leader - he is a proverbial 'big fish in a small pond"...he would be another Ken Coran.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

what is it with these Union guys? Don't they know about Wage and Price Controls, or the 504 vote. Morons?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Zach Paikin real time tweet. This is the new "Progressive Trudeau Liberal"?

 

 

adma

Given that Wheeler's greatest claim to fame is as an erstwhile NOW masthead figure, I'm supposing this is a Liberal "raid the left" move...

janfromthebruce

Adma, that is what I am thinking too. However, Innes has not decided to go gently into the good night. The Ontario Lib people are not looking clean here. And that open nomination hoax is looking like a cover for picking the winner. Also Innes let known that she lives in that riding that Freeland is in, the new one to be formed, and rightly believed the young leaders virtue of "open nomination".

The other new riding in which Linda McQuaig is going to run in, well they have that marked for the C.D.Howe wonder. The keynote guy at the Lib Convention. Just how well that will go over in James town is beyond me. Perhaps the campaign will be about delivering the masses onto the god of corporate think.

theleftyinvestor

Stockholm wrote:

I would not describe Glenn Wheeler as a "star" in any way shape or form...in fact I would consider him just about the weakest candidate the Liberals could possibly run. He is a low profile middle aged white guy who is head of a small union and by being one of the few partisan Liberals who is also a union leader - he is a proverbial 'big fish in a small pond"...he would be another Ken Coran.

Far be it from me to dictate whether he is white - I know that Statistics Canada would have him skip the question of whether he is a visible minority after answering "Yes" to being Aboriginal. From Wheeler's cached "About Me" page which is now taken down:

I’m a lawyer. I work and live in downtown Toronto on the traditional territory of the Mississaugas of the New Credit.

I grew up in York Harbour, a Mi’kmaq community on the west coast of Newfoundland. I am a member of the Qalipu Mi’kmaq First Nation.

I have a place in York Harbour and I go back every chance I get. Sometimes I just have to sit, watch the water, mountain and sky…and just be.

Besides being a lawyer, I’m a June Callwood Graduate Fellow in Aboriginal Law at the University of Toronto Faculty of Law.

Through my union, I have participated in the Aboriginal Circle of the Ontario Federation of Labour.

I’m a strong believer in community service. I’m communications chair of the Toronto Centre Federal Liberal Association.

I also serve on the board of directors of MCIS Language Services, which provides interpretation and translation in more than 200 languages, including the indigenous languages of Canada.

Before I became a lawyer, I was a professional journalist, for most of my career as associate editor of the largest urban weekly in Canada. Ink still flows in my veins and I crank out articles from time to time for the Toronto Star.

As I bicycle the streets of Toronto on the coldest winter days, I call on the spirit of our people who survived and thrived in these lands through many hard seasons.


sherpa-finn

I grew up in York Harbour, a Mi’kmaq community on the west coast of Newfoundland. I am a member of the Qalipu Mi’kmaq First Nation.

Politics aside (for a moment), that's a very interesting pedigree. The Mi'kmaq people of course are native to what we know as the Maritime provinces and there is some debate as to whether they reached, never mind settled the island of Newfoundland pre-contact. But they certainly moved in thru the 16th + 17th centuries, using European boats to make the crossing of the Gulf. Their modern struggle to get recognition as a First Nation has been slow and troubled, - with the major break through happening only in the past decade.

The ensuing process of registering members has been a bit problematic: about 10K qualifying members were projected, but last I heard over 50K had submitted applications.

And FWIW, York Harbour is a lovely spot... next door to Blow Me Down Provincial Park if any Babblers know the neighbourhood. (Beats the shit out of Toronto T-S, if you ask me! But it takes all sorts to make a world.)

nicky

This comment was posted on the Blunt Objects Blog:

 

Kyle, I think you are right to suspect there is more here than meets the eye.
I don't have any special knowledge but there are various dots that it is tempting to connect.
The Liberal nomination contest in Toronto Centre sheds some light on the contest in Trinity-Spadina.You will remember that the party brass unexpectedly changed the sign-up date for new members. This move effectively disenfranchised hundreds of supporters of Chrystia Freeland's rivals, thereby ensuring her nomination.
The same hand appears to be working in Trinity-Spadina to ensure the nomination of some yet to be revealed Trudeau favourite. Innes had been working hard for the nomination and may well have had it sewn up, partly through the machinations of her odious husband. The party may have thought that she would be a weak candidate, having been trounced by 20,000 votes her last time out.
They want someone stronger, likely some "star" preferred by Justin (or his handlers.) So they have devised this means of eliminating Innes.
They might also want to forstal her challenging Freeland for the University-Rosedale nomination in 2015. If Innes were to win the by-election she would have a serious leg up for that nomination. Unlike Freeland, she has roots in the new riding and a political machine. She may well have beaten Freeland who is an ineffective politician who alienates many by her diffidence.
In any event, Justin's "open nomination" posturing has been exposed as a hoax both in Toronto Centre and Trinity-Spadina. I used to think that there is not much more to him than name and hair and narcissism. Perhaps we can now add cynicism and hypocrisy. I say 'perhaps" because these traits are more likely what motivate the handlers who try to protect this callow mediocrity from full public scrutiny.  

David Young

Who here thinks that Trinity-Spadina will go sooner alongside the two Alberta by-elections, or like me, who thinks it will go later?

Harper knows the Cons can only benefit from yet another NDP-Liberal slug-fest in T.S. after watching what happended in Toronto Centre and Bourassa, so I'll be shocked if he calls by-elections in all three vacant seats together.

 

theleftyinvestor

I suppose with Liberals leading the polls, Harper might prefer to arrange the date so that the NDP has an advantage. The NDP winning back its incumbent seat would not be big news, and would not really say much about the prevailing trends in politics. The Liberals winning the seat would give Justin more attention and bragging rights, and Harper would rather not see that happen.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Steve Paikin‏@spaikin1 hr

Forum has a new poll out on trinity-spadina byelection: ndp 46%, lib 32%, con 15%, green 6%. Hasn't been called yet but solid ndp today.

From Twitter.

DLivings

theleftyinvestor wrote:
responding to David Young

I suppose with Liberals leading the polls, Harper might prefer to arrange the date so that the NDP has an advantage. The NDP winning back its incumbent seat would not be big news, and would not really say much about the prevailing trends in politics. The Liberals winning the seat would give Justin more attention and bragging rights, and Harper would rather not see that happen.

I tend to agree with lefty's reasoning on this.  Given the recent poll out cited in the above post, we could see a much earlier byelection rather than later...  

Harper will want a sure thing, and to look like business as usual.  Calling all three byelections at the same time raises fewer eyebrows, and there is nothing to currently suggest the Alberta seats are likely to go any way but conservative.  (Unless Harper knows of other upcoming vacancies.)

Stockholm

I have to hand it to Joe Cressy - he sure knows how to line up media profile for his candidacy - today Tim Harper at the Star weighs in.

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/03/17/ndp_turns_to_young_activist_with_deep_chow_roots_in_trinityspadina.html

nicky

Joe Cressy was Paul Dewar's campaign manager in his disasterous leadership campaign.

I must say that his tactics in that campaign do not give me a lot of hope that he can hold the riding against a concerted Liberal onslaught. He seemed fixated on stacking online polls to give a false sense that Dewar was a contender.

Surely we can find a better candidate.

 

 

Stockholm

Cressy was NOT Dewar's campaign manager. He was the campaign spokesperson/Director of Communications. In any case, the last thing we need is to re-hash old rivalries leftover from the 2012 NDP leadership contest.

Brachina

 I agree, although I hope that nomination will be contested, it would make a nice contrast with the Liberals.

nicky

I'm not rehashing any old rivalries, just giving one example 

From everything I can see Joe's judgement is questionable and he will be eaten alive in the by-election.

I hope we can do better .

Stockholm

I think he did as good a job as a spokesperson for Dewar as he could have given what he had to work with (ie: Dewar). From what i know of him, he'd make an excellent candidate - and if there is anyone better waiting in the wings - suggest a name!

nicky
OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

Hopefully the Trinity-Spadina NDP will field a better candidate than an arrogant insider who apparently has no connections to the riding itself.

Stockholm

OnTheLeft wrote:

Hopefully the Trinity-Spadina NDP will field a better candidate than an arrogant insider who apparently has no connections to the riding itself.

No connection to the riding apart from having lived, gone to school and worked in it literally his entire life?

Stockholm

Warren Kinsella sure has become NDP-philic lately - here he ways in on Joe Cressy

http://m.torontosun.com/2014/03/17/grit-moves-only-boost-ndp

Joe Cressy - who you might not know much about, but will soon enough - is a handsome, young fellow seeking the the NDP nomination in the Trinity-Spadina riding in Toronto. He is not just one of the most organized and committed guys I have ever met in politics - he is also the most likeable.

Oh, and this: If NDP leader Thomas Mulcair had a national army of guys like Joe Cressy, he'd have the biggest majority in the history of Canadian democracy.

Now, Joe is going to be mad at me for saying this kind of stuff, but too bad. Over the past year or so, Joe and I have become - full disclosure - very good friends. We got together to volunteer on a municipal election campaign and, despite our alleged ideological differences, we hit it off big time.

...

But, bottom line, this guy has got it. He's the kind of person we need more of in Parliament.

I'm a dirty rotten Grit, but if I lived in Trinity-Spadina, I'd sure vote for Joe Cressy.

If you live there, you should, too.

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

Stockholm wrote:

OnTheLeft wrote:

Hopefully the Trinity-Spadina NDP will field a better candidate than an arrogant insider who apparently has no connections to the riding itself.

No connection to the riding apart from having lived, gone to school and worked in it literally his entire life?

That's why I included apparently, and outside of NDP/political insider circles, no one knows who he is. If he wins the nomination, hopefully he won't prove to be our version of Jim Coutts, setting up a big narrative for the Liberals heading into 2015.

And a fluff endorsement from a Liberal Party insider is useless.

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