By-Elections, 2014 Edition, Vol. II

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David Young
By-Elections, 2014 Edition, Vol. II

As the length of the previous thread I had started on 2014 federal by-elections was getting fairly long, I've asked the Mods to close the old thread and I'm starting this one to continue the wonderful commentary that people have been making.

 

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David Young

Any word on a (so-called) Green candidate in Whitby-Oshawa yet?

 

Unionist

David Young wrote:

Any word on a (so-called) Green candidate in Whitby-Oshawa yet?

 

Not sure. Is there a Newish (so-called) Democratic Party candidate? Would it be that (so-called) French person?

 

Unionist

Speaking of "so-called", since when do we need to close threads for length?? That will just make it hard to find the previous conversation, as it used to be in old babble.

I totally oppose the request to close threads for length.

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Why don't we start a "Don't close threads for length!"thread and see how long it gets?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Unionist wrote:

David Young wrote:

Any word on a (so-called) Green candidate in Whitby-Oshawa yet?

 

Not sure. Is there a Newish (so-called) Democratic Party candidate? Would it be that (so-called) French person?

 

Which are you questioning?  The candidate's status as French, or as a person? 

I'm not sure the second should be a deal-braker...the NDP has had trouble making inroads among Android-Canadians.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

They have to get permission from The AI Singularity to vote.

Unionist

Ken Burch wrote:

Which are you questioning?  The candidate's status as French, or as a person? 

Neither, Ken. Just a bad joke. Her name is Jennifer French.

Debater

The Liberals & NDP have nominated their candidates for the Whitby-Oshawa by-election, but the Conservatives have not.  I don't think they have to worry though since they are the favourites to win it, regardless of whom they choose.

The riding did used to be Liberal under Judi Longfield before Jim Flaherty came along, but it doesn't look likely to leave the Conservative column unless they are hit with another drop in support in Ontario.  The NDP finished 2nd in 2011 under the Layton Wave, but prior to that it was a Liberal-Conservative race, so we'll see what happens in 2014.

Robo

Today, [url=http://www.unifor.org/en/whats-new/press-room/unifor-endorses-whitby-osh... endorsed NDP candidate[/url], [url=http://trishmcauliffe.ndp.ca/]Trish McAuliffe[/url], for the Nov 17th Whitby-Oshawa by-election, as the candidate best able to beat the Tories.

scott16

Has anyone heard anything about a candidate in the Yellowhead by-election for the NDP?

I know the NDP has a snowball's chance in hell of winning.

scott16

has there been any polling on the by-elections? Specifically in Whitby-Oshawa?

Aristotleded24

scott16 wrote:
has there been any polling on the by-elections? Specifically in Whitby-Oshawa?

Given how inaccurate polls have been lately, I'm not sure I'd want to plan a campaign strategy around them anyways.

mark_alfred

Robo wrote:

Today, [url=http://www.unifor.org/en/whats-new/press-room/unifor-endorses-whitby-osh... endorsed NDP candidate[/url], [url=http://trishmcauliffe.ndp.ca/]Trish McAuliffe[/url], for the Nov 17th Whitby-Oshawa by-election, as the candidate best able to beat the Tories.

I didn't see anything in the link that suggested they're supporting on the basis of strategic voting.  Rather, "Her progressive voice and advocacy would not only be good for the residents of Durham region, but for the whole country."

terrytowel

All the Liberal candiate has to say everyday is

"If you want to stop Harper, you cannot vote NDP"

It worked for Kathleen Wynne to stop Hudak

It worked for John Tory to stop Ford

Why not go 3 for 3!

Stockholm

1. Its a byelection so nothing that happens will get rid of Harper

2. The NDP is the official opposition and the Liberals are a distant third

3. In Whitby-Oshawa the NDP came in second in the last election and the Liberals were a distant third

4. Mulcair is willing to work with the other opposition parties to get rid of Harper. Trudeau refuses to cooperate with anyone and will let Harper stay in power unless he is allowed to govern alone.

terrytowel

Ok rephrase

All the Liberal candiate has to say everyday is

"If you want to send a message to Harper, you cannot vote NDP"

If the Lib candidate says that all day, everyday she will win.

Stockholm

All the NDP candiate has to say everyday is

"If you want to send a message to Harper, you cannot vote Liberal"

If the NDP candidate says that all day, everyday she will win.

Robo

mark_alfred wrote:

Robo wrote:

Today, [url=http://www.unifor.org/en/whats-new/press-room/unifor-endorses-whitby-osh... endorsed NDP candidate[/url], [url=http://trishmcauliffe.ndp.ca/]Trish McAuliffe[/url], for the Nov 17th Whitby-Oshawa by-election, as the candidate best able to beat the Tories.

I didn't see anything in the link that suggested they're supporting on the basis of strategic voting.  ...

It is not explicit in this press release.  It is a position that [url=http://unifor.org/en/whats-new/news/vote-keep-hudak-out]Unifor has made explicit[/url] on its web site, that its priority is to keep Conservatives out of power. I know that this link is explicit about Hudak -- I have no doubt that it applies to Harper as well.

robbie_dee

[url=http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/mp-del-mastro-found-guilty-... Del Mastro found guilty in election overspending trial (Globe and Mail)[/url]

I believe this will require him to vacate his seat?

David Young

Only after an appeal of the conviction by Del Mastro is heard.  That way it won't come until after the next election, and by then Del Mastro will have announced his retirement from elected politics, and goes away to wait 10 years until his $100,000.00 M.P. pension kicks in.

I doubt if there will be any more by-elections between the Nov. 17th pair and the next election, as Harper can wait 6 months to call one.

 

David Young

Double post!

 

 

robbie_dee

David Young wrote:

Only after an appeal of the conviction by Del Mastro is heard. 

Are you certain of that? I would think that once there's been a conviction all bets are off. 

David Young

robbie_dee wrote:

David Young wrote:

Only after an appeal of the conviction by Del Mastro is heard. 

Are you certain of that? I would think that once there's been a conviction all bets are off. 

He's already said that he's going to appeal, so I don't think there's any doubt that this won't be settled until after the next election, but alongside the three suspended Harper-appointed Senators, just their continued existence should show Canadians why it's time to vote the Conservatives out!

 

scott16

Apparently, the Unifor endorsement hasn't done much for Trish McAuliffe based on the forum numbers out on the 27th of October.

Cons 41 Libs 32 NDP 15 Green 8

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Whitby-Oshawa%20News%20Release%20%282...

Could Unifor help pull off a major upset victory in Whitby-Oshawa?

Aristotleded24

scott16 wrote:
Apparently, the Unifor endorsement hasn't done much for Trish McAuliffe based on the forum numbers out on the 27th of October.

Because polls are always accurate. Remember that the polls accurately predicted Judy Wasylycia's victory in the Winnipeg mayoral race and Liberal MP Greg Dinsdale in the Brandon-Souris by-election held last year.

robbie_dee

[url=https://ca.news.yahoo.com/dean-del-mastros-parliamentary-future-21383670... to decide Dean Del Mastro's parliamentary future[/url]

Sean in Ottawa

robbie_dee wrote:

[url=https://ca.news.yahoo.com/dean-del-mastros-parliamentary-future-21383670... to decide Dean Del Mastro's parliamentary future[/url]

Would be great if the Conservatives voted in the House to let him stay -- but that is not going to happen. He will be gone becuase he embarasses them -- because he got caught.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Why is this Del Mastro commentary here? I'd like to know.

swallow swallow's picture

scott16 wrote:

Apparently, the Unifor endorsement hasn't done much for Trish McAuliffe based on the forum numbers out on the 27th of October.

Cons 41 Libs 32 NDP 15 Green 8

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Whitby-Oshawa%20News%20Release%20%282...

Could Unifor help pull off a major upset victory in Whitby-Oshawa?

But Forum isn't a real polling company, it's in the entertainment business.

robbie_dee

Arthur Cramer wrote:
Why is this Del Mastro commentary here? I'd like to know.

I brought it up here because aside from the legal issues for Del Mastro, his conviction may precipitate a byelection in Peterborough.

Debater

swallow wrote:

But Forum isn't a real polling company, it's in the entertainment business.

Well actually, Forum has been pretty accurate in predicting Ontario by-elections so far.  It was correct in predicting Liberal wins in Toronto Centre, Trinity-Spadina & Scarborough-Agincourt.

It also correctly predicted that Kathleen Wynne would win the Ontario election in June.

However, obviously we have to take the individual numbers with caution as those can be off with the wider margin of error involved.

There is another week & a-half before the by-election, too.

However, it's interesting to see that the Conservative margin in Whitby-Oshawa appears to be down considerably from last time, and that the Liberals appear to be back to 2nd place in this riding.  The Mulcair NDP looks like it could finish 3rd in another Ontario riding.

Debater

Stockholm wrote:

1. Its a byelection so nothing that happens will get rid of Harper

2. The NDP is the official opposition and the Liberals are a distant third

3. In Whitby-Oshawa the NDP came in second in the last election and the Liberals were a distant third

4. Mulcair is willing to work with the other opposition parties to get rid of Harper. Trudeau refuses to cooperate with anyone and will let Harper stay in power unless he is allowed to govern alone.

Stockholm, keep in mind the following:

1.  The Liberals are in 1st place in the polls and the NDP are a distant 3rd.

2.  In Ontario it is the Liberals who are the main rivals to the Conservatives, where the NDP are a distant 3rd.

3.  In Ontario it is the Liberals that beat the Conservatives decisively in Scarborough-Agincourt earlier this year, while the NDP finished a distant 3rd.

4.  Harper and the Conservatives are not afraid of Tom Mulcair or the NDP, which is why they make almost all of their attacks on Trudeau and the Liberals.

5.  The Liberals appear to be running a solid 2nd to the Conservatives in the Whitby-Oshawa Forum poll, with the NDP a distant 3rd.

6.  Therefore, in Whitby-Oshawa, the party which is best-positioned to beat the Conservatives is the Liberals!

(Btw, it was Tom Mulcair & the NDP that said they would under no circumstances enter into any coalition agreement with the Liberals.  Trudeau later said the same thing, but only after Mulcair had said it first the previous year during the NDP Leadership run).

Stockholm

Mulcair said he would never enter into a pre-election vote rigging deal with the liberals but he says he is open to ANY arrangement with the Liberals that would dump Harper from power. Only Trudeau is being totally intransigent and refuses to cooperate with anyone. His line is "give me a majority or else i refuse to govern"

Debater

No, Mulcair has changed his story on that.  I know that NDPers want to portray Trudeau as the difficult one and ignore what Mulcair said during the NDP leadership in 2012, but it's on record, and the press called Mulcair out for changing his story.  He said he would never enter into any arrangement with the Liberals under any circumstances, either before or after an election.  And Trudeau has not said anything along the lines of what you said above.

Anyway, that is a debate for another day.

Getting back to the topic of this thread, today was the first time I've posted on this topic since August.  I'm not particularly interested in this set of by-elections as I think both will be won by the Conservatives.  The Yellowhead seat is a safe CPC seat (although they may see a drop as they have in other Alberta ridings recently).  I get the sense that the press isn't as interested in these by-elections, either.  The only story will probably be who finishes 2nd to the Cons, and so far it looks to be the Liberals in both ridings.

In the Whitby-Oshawa riding, the Cons have the highest-profile candidate, since Pat Perkins is the Mayor.  Unless something dramatic happens over the next 2 weeks, the Cons will likely hold Whitby-Oshawa.  The only way the Cons could lose would be if the non-Harper vote all coalesced behind the Liberals, and that doesn't seem likely since Jerry Dias & Unifor are backing the NDP.

While I don't doubt that the Forum poll could be off by several points in some of its numbers, it would have to be very off in order for the NDP to finish higher than 3rd since that poll gives the Liberal candidate a 2-1 lead over the NDP, and the highest approval rating.

scott16

dean just quit. Dave Nickle wants to represent the NDP in the by-election. at least he did back in March.

http://www.mykawartha.com/news-story/4421856-dave-nickle-is-not-seeking-...

David Young

I really thought that Del Mastro would drag this out through appeals, but I'd be willing to bet he got a phone call from a high-ranking Conservative, who said something like...!

'Quit now, and you'll get your pension when you make it to 55...drag this out, and you'll get nothing!'

I can see 3 scenarios now that he has resigned:

#1 - Harper waits the minimum amount of time allowed (like what happened with Penashue) and calls a snap by-election for Monday, December 15th, hoping that a 'late fall' by-election won't have any effect on next year's scheduled election;

#2 - Harper waits the maximum time allowed (May 10th?) to schedule the by-election for October 19th...the date of the general election;

#3 - Harper waits for any bump in support that justifies an early election call 'to save the taxpayers the unnecessary expense of a by-election'.

 

Wilf Day

Debater wrote:

No, Mulcair has changed his story on that.  I know that NDPers want to portray Trudeau as the difficult one and ignore what Mulcair said during the NDP leadership in 2012, but it's on record, and the press called Mulcair out for changing his story.  He said he would never enter into any arrangement with the Liberals under any circumstances, either before or after an election.

Link, please. I don't believe it. I recall him ruling out a pre-election alliance.

nicky

You are entirely correct Wilf
Don't ever expect Debater to back up the outrageous claims he so often makes in what he thinks to be the service of the Liberal party.
He is the drive-by shooter of Babble.

Debater

Wrong, Nicky.

What I stated was correct.  I assumed that since it was all over the press at the time and has multiple articles about it out there that it would be well-known on Babble by now.  Mulcair made unequivocal statements against any form of coalition back in 2012 when he was running for NDP Leader.  He has since tried to walk it back, but members of the press have caught him on it.

------------

Mulcair spins his own flip-flop

Canadian politicians have said many things about coalition governance since Stéphane Dion decided he’d like to become Prime Minister and Jack Layton decided he was OK with that: Many negative, fewer positive, most pure waffle. But perhaps nobody has ever disavowed it as unequivocally as Tom Mulcair did in 2012, in an interview with Huffington Post’s Althia Raj.

“One thing Mulcair is clear on is that he’ll go after Liberal supporters, but won’t work with the rival party,” Ms. Raj reported. “‘N.O.,’ he told HuffPost. The NDP tried to form a coalition with the Liberals in 2008 and then the Grits ‘lifted their noses up on it,’ Mulcair said.”

Ms. Raj continued: “The coalition experience taught Mulcair everything he needs to know about the Liberals. They’re untrustworthy and he said he’ll never work with them again, whether in a formal or informal coalition.”

And then, Mr. Mulcair said something he couldn’t — surely — take back: “The no is categorical, absolute, irrefutable and non-negotiable. It’s no. End of story. Full stop.”

-----

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/02/28/chris-selley-mulcair-spin...

----

Mulcair's Coalition Flip-Flop Is Bad for Democracy

Scene one: March, 2012. The NDP leader is asked if he's interested in someday forming a coalition government with the Liberals. "N-O." he replies. "The no is categorical, absolute, irrefutable and non-negotiable."

Cue screen wipe as we fast-forward to February 26, 2014, when he's asked the same question.

His answer? "We've always said that we were willing to work with other parties."

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/jj-mccullough/mulcair-coalition-_b_4861525....

----

Mulcair flip-flops on coalition talk

http://www.frankmagazine.ca/node/2456

---

And there's even a thread here on Babble about it where several Babblers call out Mulcair:

http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/thomas-mulcair-0?page=71

Rokossovsky

Othe than the fact the Mulcair is saying that he ruled out a "pre-election" coalition of the kind proposed by Nathan Cullen, in his seat sharing plan, and he was quite clear they were going to run 338 candidates, not give up some ridings, this is a funny bit at the bottom of the National Post article:

Quote:
And as silly as Mr. Mulcair looks, Mr. Trudeau’s position is sillier. Forget about pre-election coalitions — they’re not even on the radar. Ruling out post-election coalitions simply isn’t credible. Politics is the pursuit of power; a politician who says he won’t consider seizing it in the circumstances available is either lying (to you or himself) or derelict of duty. Stéphane Dion has forgotten more about parliamentary democracy than Justin Trudeau might ever know. If a coalition was OK for him, it should probably be OK for Mr. Trudeau. What a pity for him and his party that he ruled it out.

Wit, is only sublime when true.

Adam T
Adam T

Still nobody seems interested in the byelections that are just 5 days away!

Maybe I can stir up some controversy

predictions for both byelections:

John Turmel wins unanimously in Whitby-Oshawa

otherwise, in both byelections

1.Conservative

2.Liberal

3.NDP

Or maybe a couple jokes will help.  From 'The Two Ronnies'

1.The evening for people who think they are modes of transport went well. It was sponsored by a man who wishes to remain an omnibus.

2.The Lord, Master and Supreme Ruling Being of the Universe was unable to lord over his subjects today. His wife wouldn't let him out the house.

 

Debater

Why would people be that interested in the by-elections?  They're both going to be won by the Conservatives. (Well, there's an outside chance of a Liberal win in Whitby-Oshawa, but it's a very small one).

Yellowhead is one of the most Conservative ridings in Alberta.  It voted 77% Conservative in 2011.  It's Joe Clark's former riding.  It was won by a Liberal back in the 1970's once during Pierre Trudeau's era, but only because of an internal feud between the Conservatives in the riding.

The only question in Yellowhead will be if the Conservative margin will drop by several points, and who finishes 2nd.  In the last several elections the NDP has finished 2nd.  If the Liberals finish 2nd that will be further confirmation that Trudeau is resonating better in Alberta than Mulcair, but other than that I'm not sure what we can read into it.

The one the press is watching the most is Whitby-Oshawa, because there it appears that while Conservative Pat Perkins is in the lead, she's not likely to win by the margins that Jim Flaherty did in recent years.  And if there is a big Conservative drop, it would be a symbolic blow to Harper.  That may be why Harper is doing so many fiscal announcements and goodie offerings this month.  He wants to sweeten the pot to attract wavering voters in Whitby-Oshawa.

The Liberal candidate, Celina Cesare-Chavannes is a very smart woman with an interesting background in science, and is very charismatic and engaging, and may be headed for a respectable 2nd place finish, but it will be hard for her to pull off the upset on Conservative Mayor Pat Perkins that Adam Vaughan managed over Joe Cressy in Trinity-Spadina.

So perhaps because we're looking at 2 likely Conservative wins, these by-elections aren't of as much interest to NDP & Liberal posters here as by-elections over the past year in Toronto Centre, Bourassa, Trinity-Spadina, etc. where there was more on the line for the Opposition parties.  These by-elections are mainly about the Conservatives.

Anyway, I agree with your prediction that it will probably be:

1. Conservative

2., Liberal

3. NDP

in both by-elections.

Debater

Whitby-Oshawa byelection a dead heat, poll suggests

A new poll by Forum Research has the Conservative and Liberals in a dead heat in the Whitby-Oshawa by-election race.

Fri Nov 14 2014

(conducted Nov. 11)

Conservative (Pat Perkins) 44 per cent

Liberal (Celina Caesar-Chavannes) 40 per cent

NDP (Trish McCauliffe) 12 per cent

----

More:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/11/14/whitbyoshawa_byelection_a_...

----

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/185/liberals-close-gap-in-whitby-osha...

Adam T

Debater wrote:

Whitby-Oshawa byelection a dead heat, poll suggests

A new poll by Forum Research has the Conservative and Liberals in a dead heat in the Whitby-Oshawa by-election race.

Fri Nov 14 2014

(conducted Nov. 11)

Conservative (Pat Perkins) 44 per cent

Liberal (Celina Caesar-Chavannes) 40 per cent

NDP (Trish McCauliffe) 12 per cent

----

More:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/11/14/whitbyoshawa_byelection_a_...

----

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/185/liberals-close-gap-in-whitby-osha...

 

Hrm, what happened to Turmelmania?

Debater

The Conservatives will still likely win Whitby-Oshawa, but it will be nice to see them held to a narrow win, if this poll turns out to be accurate.

I said earlier in the thread that the Liberal candidate, Celina Caesar-Chavannes, is very engaging and resonating well with voters, and that wasn't just spin on my part.  She's just one of those people that has a natural quality to her and who connects well with people on the campaign trail.  Looks like she is going to finish a very solid 2nd.

Meanwhile in Yellowhead, we know the Conservatives are going to win by an overwhelming margin.  The only question is who finishes 2nd there.  This poll shows the Liberal slightly ahead of the NDPer in Yellowhead, but it's too close to know.  Will depend on which opposition party is best at motivating people to come out in Alberta.

terrytowel

Celina Caesar-Chavannes needs to start saying

"If you want to send a strong message to Stephen Harper, you cannot vote NDP"

That way she will win for sure.

Worked for Wynne & Tory, why not her?

nicky

Thanks Debater for drawing our attention once again to just how WONDERFUL the Liberals are.
And thank you TerryT for telling us for the 51st time this month that we Shd all abandon our principles and scumb to strategic voting, even if on the basis of a suspect Forum poll.

terrytowel

nicky wrote:
Thanks Debater for drawing our attention once again to just how WONDERFUL the Liberals are. And thank you TerryT for telling us for the 51st time this month that we Shd all abandon our principles and scumb to strategic voting, even if on the basis of a suspect Forum poll.

So you'd rather have another irrelevant Harper backbencher warming a seat, than an effective opposition member fighting for her constituents?

The government won't fall, and you can have the best of both worlds by sending a message to Harper.

nicky

52nd time this month

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