By-Elections, 2014 Edition, Vol. II

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Stockholm

Actually the Tory candidate in Whitby-Oshawa is far more impressive than the Liberal non-entity. They are running the very popular former mayor of Whitby - whatever you think of Harper and CPC party - they do have the best candidate if you are voting on the basis of local representation. 

If people want to send a message to Justin Trudeau that they think he's an idiot - they MUST vote for the NDP candidate!!

terrytowel

As the this letter to the editor in Now Magazine writes so eloquently

Sadly, while hope may be better than fear and love better than hate, hate and fear are often very effective electoral tactics.

J. Roth

Toronto

http://nowtoronto.com/news/letters-to-the-editor/letters-to-the-editor_2/

NorthReport

That Forum poll is just another in a long series of manipulative polls used to try and sucker NDP votes over to the Liberals

If Forum says

Cons - 44%

Libs - 40%

NDP - 12%

The actual situation is probably closer to:

Cons - 40%

NDP - 24%

Libs - 20%

Regardless by-elections are usually irrelevant, and do not often give an indication of what is happening nationally

 

 

robbie_dee

I would gladly trade an NDP victory in the Saint John East N.B. provincial byelection for Liberal or Conservative victories in Yellowhead and Whitby-Oshawa. Too bad I don't get that choice.

NorthReport

Liberals are just yanking your chain.

When Forum has been off in the past, often it was an over-estimation of the challenger's support. So that would suggest Perkins has more of an edge than the poll indicates.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

That Forum poll is just another in a long series of manipulative polls used to try and sucker NDP votes over to the Liberals

If Forum says

Cons - 44%

Libs - 40%

NDP - 12%

The actual situation is probably closer to:

Cons - 40%

NDP - 24%

Libs - 20%

Going by the previous 13 Forum byelection polls:

Con underestimated by 3.2%

Lib  underestimated by 0.6%

NDP  overestimated by 1.5%

Green overestimated by 1.2%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/By-elections_to_the_41st_Canadian_Parliament

nicky

Where do you get your numbers for Forum's accuracy, Bekayne? The link does not provide them.

Forum has been wildly wrong on several by-elections - Ft McMurray, Brandon, Provencher, Ottawa South and others. They grossly under-predicted the NDP in the Ontario provincial election. They also consistently give the NDP about 5% less federally than virtually every other poll.

I seriously doubt that their average error is as low as you indicate

bekayne

nicky wrote:

Where do you get your numbers for Forum's accuracy, Bekayne? The link does not provide them.

Just click on "Show" where it says Opinion Polling for each byelection.

terrytowel

According to Toronto Star Tim Harper

"The Liberal is grabbing NDP support while (the Cons candidate) Perkins’ strong name recognition and support has remained static."

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/11/13/conservatives_man_the_barr...

NorthReport

Of the current pollsters forum is right up there with Robbins and have by far the worst polling results

nicky

Thanks Bekayne.

I've had a quick look at the Forum numbers in the link. You have obviously offset overestimates against underestimates to get your averages, as if Forum's overestimate of the Liberals by 16% in Brandon somehow comsensates for its underestimate of  the Liberals in Danforth of 10% so that the net error is only 3%. In fact it is 13%.

When I add up all the errors I get these average errors:

Con  7%

Lib   6%

NDP 3%

This is just not a very good average. It is time to recognize Forum as the least accurate of all the major pollsters. Let's see how close they come in Whitby-Oshawa.

NorthReport

Actually are most polls in Canada and elsewhere rigged? I think there just might be a growing body of evidence to suggest that. Don't you agree?

NorthReport

This is the script written long before today, repeated quite frequently at election time, by a certain political party, known for their honesty and integrity Laughing , and it goes something like this:

A couple of days before the vote, let's arrange for a pollster to publish polls showing the LPC doing well, but just not quite enough to win.

Probably too late, but not necessarily, especially as this process often wears thin, for another pollster of the same gendre, to release their poll findings as well shortly before the vote.

This is designed primarily to attempt to stampede another party's voters in thinking that the race is a lot closer than it really is. 

Voters right now have no way of knowing how the vote will turn out.

Voters need to vote for the party that best represents their interests, and if they do, and they might be pleasantly surprised by the results. 

 

 

Debater

Stockholm wrote:

Actually the Tory candidate in Whitby-Oshawa is far more impressive than the Liberal non-entity. They are running the very popular former mayor of Whitby - whatever you think of Harper and CPC party - they do have the best candidate if you are voting on the basis of local representation. 

If people want to send a message to Justin Trudeau that they think he's an idiot - they MUST vote for the NDP candidate!!

1.  Stockholm, thanks for confirming once again that the NDP prefers the Conservatives to win over the Liberals.

2.  Since the NDP candidate appears to be in a distant 3rd place in Whitby-Oshawa, it appears that people are sending a message that they think Trudeau is a good leader and that they aren't too impressed with Mulcair.

Debater

nicky wrote:

Thanks Bekayne.

I've had a quick look at the Forum numbers in the link. You have obviously offset overestimates against underestimates to get your averages, as if Forum's overestimate of the Liberals by 16% in Brandon somehow comsensates for its underestimate of  the Liberals in Danforth of 10% so that the net error is only 3%. In fact it is 13%.

People keep bringing up the Brandon-Souris by-election poll, but that's kind of a distortion of the overall by-election polling we've seen over the past year.

1.  That was a Manitoba by-election, in a rural area where polling is more difficult to conduct.  I said above that I agree that Forum hasn't been good at polling in Western rural ridings.  However, their track record shows they have been pretty accurate in Ontario ridings.  So if you take the Brandon-Souris misfire out of the mix, the Ontario polling has been correct in predicting the Ontario by-election wins over the past year.

2.  Since Justin Trudeau became leader in April 2013, the Liberals have finished ahead of the NDP in every one of the 9 by-elections held since that time.  So it's not as if the numbers in these polls are off the mark from what we have already seen in previous ridings in terms of support for the Liberals vs. the NDP.

NorthReport

Says who? Just about the flakiest pollster Canada has ever seen! Laughing

  

Debater wrote:

 

2.  Since the NDP candidate appears to be in a distant 3rd place in Whitby-Oshawa, it appears that people are sending a message that they think Trudeau is a good leader and that they aren't too impressed with Mulcair.

Debater

If the NDP finishes 3rd in Whitby-Oshawa on Monday night, I assume you will create a new thread called

Tom Mulcair: Is he actually going to be a drag on the NDP 2015 election chances?

Laughing

Debater

Indeed.

That's the point. Wink

NorthReport

These were the 2011 Whitby-Oshawa election results 

Cons - 54%

NDP - 24%

Libs - 19%

 

So if the pollster I dreamed about recently shows:

Cons - 40%

NDP - 24%

Libs - 20%

 

and that is what eventually happens, I suppose the Liberals will at least be able to say that they were the only ones who increased their share of the vote even it it was only a measly 1%  Laughing

 

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Says who? Just about the flakiest pollster Canada has ever seen! Laughing

That's Robbins and no one's even close to him

adma

terrytowel wrote:

Celina Caesar-Chavannes needs to start saying

"If you want to send a strong message to Stephen Harper, you cannot vote NDP"

That way she will win for sure.

Worked for Wynne & Tory, why not her?

Provincially speaking, it didn't work for Christine Elliott's opponent this year; indeed, the NDP got some of the same "Oshawa bump" that elected Jennifer French next door.

That said, the way things stand now, I'm more likely to agree than disagree about the NDP being lost in the middle of this byelection race--albeit not in the scoffing way Debater's prone to doing...

Centrist

bekayne wrote:
That's Robbins and no one's even close to him
 

Robbins isn't a pollster. Just a fraudulent front. Nobody pays attention to him. 

BTW, did ya know that Robbins is for sale for $2.8 million?

Quote:
RSR ROBBINS puts British Columbia polls and surveys - Library up for sale $2.8 million 

.. a solid foundation from which to initiate an excellent commercial operation for an amount well below recognized cost replacement.

http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_1037.html

Perhaps crowd-sourcing should by it? Then all ya need to do is read the papers... stick your finger in tha air... and voila! You write down the first poll numbers that come into your head. Presto! Amazing Kreskin-like. :)

Debater

adma wrote:

That said, the way things stand now, I'm more likely to agree than disagree about the NDP being lost in the middle of this byelection race--albeit not in the scoffing way Debater's prone to doing...

I'm not the one scoffing, adma.  It's North Report that does that.  I'm just countering his anti-Liberal bluster with some cold hard facts & numbers (eg. it's a fact that LPC has beaten NDP in every by-election under Trudeau).

I'm not predicting a win for the Liberals.  So perhaps you will re-phrase your post and direct some of that criticism to the NDP partisans here who predict doom & gloom for LPC while predicting big wins for the NDP?

Thanks. Smile

adma

Debater wrote:

adma wrote:

That said, the way things stand now, I'm more likely to agree than disagree about the NDP being lost in the middle of this byelection race--albeit not in the scoffing way Debater's prone to doing...

I'm not the one scoffing, adma.  It's North Report that does that.  I'm just countering his anti-Liberal bluster with some cold hard facts & numbers (eg. it's a fact that LPC has beaten NDP in every by-election under Trudeau).

I'm not predicting a win for the Liberals.  So perhaps you will re-phrase your post and direct some of that criticism to the NDP partisans here who predict doom & gloom for LPC while predicting big wins for the NDP?

Thanks. Smile

You're still scoffing.

Debater

Interesting statement this week by the NDP candidate in Whitby-Oshawa:

“Last time, I ran against Jim Flaherty. This time, I’m running against Justin Trudeau,” says NDP candidate Trish McAuliffe, a General Motors employee and community activist who finished second in 2011.

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tight-race-to-replace-flahert...

Debater

Also interesting is that Conservative candidate Pat Perkins may not be the wonderful candidate Stockholm claimed she was.

Turns out she is a climate change denier and that she also stuck taxpayers with a big hotel bill after a visit to France:

“I’m sure we could find other experts who could say something to the contrary” and suggested researchers are divided on climate science. “We need some consistency of ideas from our scientists. They are at both ends of the spectrum. They haven’t come together with solutions. You can’t expect a politician to decide which one of these scientists is correct.”

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tight-race-to-replace-flahert...

terrytowel

CPAC does their regular 30 minute special on the two ridings of this by-election. See link for full episodes.

http://www.cpac.ca/en/programs/campaign-politics/

Debater

Yes, the 2 riding specials have been playing several times on CPAC over the past several days, so I had the opportunity to catch them the other night.

You can see in the Whitby-Oshawa profile how engaging Celina C-C is as the Liberal candidate.  Look at how well she interacts with voters and the positive responses she gets just walking down the street.  The NDP candidate Trish M. could learn a lot from Celina.

Interesting that Tom Mulcair has not bothered to travel to Alberta for the Yellowhead by-election but Justin Trudeau did go out for one day and put in an appearance to show his party is re-connecting in Alberta.  That could make the difference in allowing the Liberals to finish 2nd there.

If Mulcair finishes 3rd in 2 more by-elections, it will reflect on his leadership.

GTY

Although I live in Toronto, I have been driving every night and weekends to Whitby-Oshawa to canvass in the by-election since the beginning of November.  While other people may be burnt out from helping in various municipal election campaigns, I have plenty of fire in my belly.

Relative to other by-elections I have participated, this one is a very very quiet one.  There is no serious challenge going on to the Conservative candidate.  The municipal elections have affected all of the political parties as workers spent their October helping municipal candidates.  With only the November days left, the one candidate who benefits the most is Conservative candidate Pat Perkins.  As the former mayor of Whitby, she is very well known to people.

Unlike Toronto, candidates are allowed to place their signs on public boulevards and intersections.  Large signs from each of the three political parties have been put up in these public places in pretty much equal numbers.  As of Friday, November 17th, signs for the Green candidate started appearing in these public locations, as well as some long vertical Liberal signs with the Liberal candidates name in vertical letters.  Most of these signs were likely not noticed until after the municipal candidates signs started coming down.

On private lawns, the conservatives have the edge in number of sign locations, followed by NDP and Liberals.  The voters at the Conservative and Liberal sign locations are very partisan.  And given the sparceness of the locations, gives me the impression that these sign locations are from the membership lists and previous sign locations.  Where the NDP has been canvassing, the NDP outnumbers the others.

There were three candidates debates.  The one recorded at Rogers TV doesn't allow the public to attend, and the other two were held on Thursday, November 13th, one in the afternoon, and one in the evening.  Apparently, only 40 people showed up to the one held in the evening.

Throughout November, I've seen four different pieces dropped by the conservatives.  Two different leaflets have Trudeau/Harper comparisons and two much larger door knockers.  Unless you are actually looking at them, it would be easy for the voter to think they are receiving the same comparison leaflet, or the same door knocker.

The NDP is distributing a normal leaflet and a smaller candidates card size piece.

I've only seen one leaflet from the Liberals and although it has a picture of the candidate on one side, and another picture with her and Trudeau on the other, there is nothing about the candidate.  A voter would have to go to her web site to see her pumped up resume.  If a leaflet describing who the candidate is was ever printed, it must have been dropped during the municipal election.  I've heard Conservatives voters say they are voting for Pat Perkins, but I have yet to hear a Liberal mention the Liberal candidate's name.

In the last federal election, many more Liberal voters seemed to stay home than had switched to the Conservative and NDP.  This was more due to Ignatieff's performance as leader.  This was quickly recovered in the 2011 Provincial election where the Liberals came in second with 33% of the vote, although in 2013 they were down slightly to 31%.  The NDP provincially got just over 15% of the vote in the wake of Jack's passing in 2011, but went up to 23% in 2014.

From the canvassing that I am doing, I think the results of the last provincial election show the feelings of the voters in Whitby-Oshawa.  There hasn't been any sizable effort on any of the political parties to budge these numbers any differently.  But again, people have been known to vote differently in provincial, federal, and by-electional, as well as being influenced by other sets of candidates.

As for Fourm Research, it leaves my head scratching.  It did two polls, the first on Monday October 27th, the day of the municipal election, and the second on Tuesday November 11th.  The first was a sample size of 845 respondents and the second 777 respondents.  These seem to be twice as high as Fourm Research would normally do in a high profile by-election.  Something of great interest needs to be measured, and I don't know what exactly it is.

The Conservative candidate polled at 41% the first time and 44% the second time.  Is there a trend?  How high will she reach by E-day?  Are Conservative supporters more inclined to go out and vote than Liberal, NDP, and Green supporters?

If Fourm Research accurately predicts the winner, does anyone care about the inaccuracies of the other candidates?  Will we see another more recent and accurate one published on the web site on E-day?

As for me, I predict that the results will be much similar to the last provincial results.  The historical equilibrium places the Conservatives first, the Liberals second and the NDP third.  But the real winner will be the NDP in next years federal election in the riding of Oshawa.  Forty federal polls from Whitby-Oshawa will be added to Oshawa under the new boundaries.  The NDP canvassing has been concentrated in these polls, and as a result a decent record of marks, sign locations, and updated phone numbers will be available to the new Oshawa federal riding.  Jennifer French won Oshawa for the NDP in the last provincial election, giving hope for finally winning back Ed Broadbents Oshawa riding.

 

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Thanks, GTY, for the very interesting and informative post. Real first hand information and informed opinion on babble. Imagine that.

PrairieDemocrat15

GTY wrote:

Although I live in Toronto, I have been driving every night and weekends to Whitby-Oshawa to canvass in the by-election since the beginning of November.  While other people may be burnt out from helping in various municipal election campaigns, I have plenty of fire in my belly.

Relative to other by-elections I have participated, this one is a very very quiet one.  There is no serious challenge going on to the Conservative candidate.  The municipal elections have affected all of the political parties as workers spent their October helping municipal candidates.  With only the November days left, the one candidate who benefits the most is Conservative candidate Pat Perkins.  As the former mayor of Whitby, she is very well known to people.

Unlike Toronto, candidates are allowed to place their signs on public boulevards and intersections.  Large signs from each of the three political parties have been put up in these public places in pretty much equal numbers.  As of Friday, November 17th, signs for the Green candidate started appearing in these public locations, as well as some long vertical Liberal signs with the Liberal candidates name in vertical letters.  Most of these signs were likely not noticed until after the municipal candidates signs started coming down.

On private lawns, the conservatives have the edge in number of sign locations, followed by NDP and Liberals.  The voters at the Conservative and Liberal sign locations are very partisan.  And given the sparceness of the locations, gives me the impression that these sign locations are from the membership lists and previous sign locations.  Where the NDP has been canvassing, the NDP outnumbers the others.

There were three candidates debates.  The one recorded at Rogers TV doesn't allow the public to attend, and the other two were held on Thursday, November 13th, one in the afternoon, and one in the evening.  Apparently, only 40 people showed up to the one held in the evening.

Throughout November, I've seen four different pieces dropped by the conservatives.  Two different leaflets have Trudeau/Harper comparisons and two much larger door knockers.  Unless you are actually looking at them, it would be easy for the voter to think they are receiving the same comparison leaflet, or the same door knocker.

The NDP is distributing a normal leaflet and a smaller candidates card size piece.

I've only seen one leaflet from the Liberals and although it has a picture of the candidate on one side, and another picture with her and Trudeau on the other, there is nothing about the candidate.  A voter would have to go to her web site to see her pumped up resume.  If a leaflet describing who the candidate is was ever printed, it must have been dropped during the municipal election.  I've heard Conservatives voters say they are voting for Pat Perkins, but I have yet to hear a Liberal mention the Liberal candidate's name.

In the last federal election, many more Liberal voters seemed to stay home than had switched to the Conservative and NDP.  This was more due to Ignatieff's performance as leader.  This was quickly recovered in the 2011 Provincial election where the Liberals came in second with 33% of the vote, although in 2013 they were down slightly to 31%.  The NDP provincially got just over 15% of the vote in the wake of Jack's passing in 2011, but went up to 23% in 2014.

From the canvassing that I am doing, I think the results of the last provincial election show the feelings of the voters in Whitby-Oshawa.  There hasn't been any sizable effort on any of the political parties to budge these numbers any differently.  But again, people have been known to vote differently in provincial, federal, and by-electional, as well as being influenced by other sets of candidates.

As for Fourm Research, it leaves my head scratching.  It did two polls, the first on Monday October 27th, the day of the municipal election, and the second on Tuesday November 11th.  The first was a sample size of 845 respondents and the second 777 respondents.  These seem to be twice as high as Fourm Research would normally do in a high profile by-election.  Something of great interest needs to be measured, and I don't know what exactly it is.

The Conservative candidate polled at 41% the first time and 44% the second time.  Is there a trend?  How high will she reach by E-day?  Are Conservative supporters more inclined to go out and vote than Liberal, NDP, and Green supporters?

If Fourm Research accurately predicts the winner, does anyone care about the inaccuracies of the other candidates?  Will we see another more recent and accurate one published on the web site on E-day?

As for me, I predict that the results will be much similar to the last provincial results.  The historical equilibrium places the Conservatives first, the Liberals second and the NDP third.  But the real winner will be the NDP in next years federal election in the riding of Oshawa.  Forty federal polls from Whitby-Oshawa will be added to Oshawa under the new boundaries.  The NDP canvassing has been concentrated in these polls, and as a result a decent record of marks, sign locations, and updated phone numbers will be available to the new Oshawa federal riding.  Jennifer French won Oshawa for the NDP in the last provincial election, giving hope for finally winning back Ed Broadbents Oshawa riding.

 

Are the Whitby-Oshawa polls being added to Oshawa NDP-friendy? Jennifer French's huge victory in Oshawa bodes well for the NDP there in 2015 and in working-class, suburban ridings across Ontario at both levels. Keep up the good work!

Debater

Now that we know only the Liberals can beat the Conservatives in Whitby-Oshawa, will Jerry Diaz & Unifor reverse their foolish endorsement of the NDP candidate who is a distant 3rd?

There are a large number of Conservative cabinet ministers showing up in the riding, and CPC Campaign Chief Jenni Byrne herself has arrived in Whitby-Oshawa this weekend.  Why would the Conservatives be sending all these big people there if they were so confident of winning the riding?

Premier Kathleen Wynne also stopped by for a Liberal rally the other night - she wouldn't be there if the Liberals were in a distant 3rd.

The press reports that this by-election is closer than expected, the polling shows it is a Conservative vs. Liberal race.

While I am sure that GTY believes some of the things he/she is posting, it doesn't correlate with all the other reports we are seeing.

Btw, Liberal internal polling also shows that it is the Liberals who are closest to the Conservatives in this riding, not the NDP.  So the Liberal polling backs up the Forum polling.

NorthReport

Based on Forum Research - Ha! Ha! Ha!

Debater

From Global News:

In a discussion on The West Block with Tom Clark, Parvaneh Pessian, a reporter with Whitby This Week said voters in Whitby-Oshawa, located just east of Toronto, are ready for change.

“I’ve been talking to a lot of people and they’re saying they are tired of the Stephen Harper government, they’d like to see a fresh face in government, they’re connecting very well to Celina Caesar-Chavannes whose the Liberal candidate,” she said.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1674675/unpacking-the-politics-2-critical-byel...

Adam T

The vast majority of this riding is the city of Whitby, not Oshawa.  The NDP has strength in Oshawa not Whitby.

NorthReport

But that is what the mainstream press will always says which translates into Conservatives and Liberals same ole story.

What if this article is just an attempt to manipulate the voters? 

Debater

Correct, Adam T.

And the provincial Liberals finished ahead of the NDP in Whitby-Oshawa in this year's June election.

Sure the NDP got a bump from the Oshawa riding nearby, but they still finished 3rd, and there's no election in the other riding this time.

And the Federal Liberals used to finish ahead of the NDP (and held the seat) prior to Jim Flaherty winning.

The only time the NDP finished ahead of the Liberals in recent history is during the Layton wave in 2011.

NorthReport

and Thomas Mulcair was a very important part of the Orange Wave in 2011. Smile

NorthReport

And Thomas Mulcair was a very important part of the Orange Wave in 2011. Smile

Debater

Not in Ontario, he wasn't. Wink

Debater

Tight race to replace Flaherty seat in Whitby-Oshawa by-election

The race to replace Jim Flaherty is nearing its end, as a local mayor running for the Conservatives aims to fend off a strong push by Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

Three years ago, the federal finance minister took 58 per cent of the vote in Whitby-Oshawa, just east of Toronto in the vote-rich “905” region. Heading into Monday’s by-election, however, polls show former Whitby mayor and Conservative candidate Pat Perkins has only a slim lead over Liberal Celina Caesar-Chavannes, with whom Mr. Trudeau has campaigned regularly.

“Last time, I ran against Jim Flaherty. This time, I’m running against Justin Trudeau,” says NDP candidate Trish McAuliffe, a General Motors employee and community activist who finished second in 2011.

----

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tight-race-to-replace-flahe...

jjuares

Debater wrote:

Now that we know only the Liberals can beat the Conservatives in Whitby-Oshawa, will Jerry Diaz & Unifor reverse their foolish endorsement of the NDP candidate who is a distant 3rd?

There are a large number of Conservative cabinet ministers showing up in the riding, and CPC Campaign Chief Jenni Byrne herself has arrived in Whitby-Oshawa this weekend.  Why would the Conservatives be sending all these big people there if they were so confident of winning the riding?

Premier Kathleen Wynne also stopped by for a Liberal rally the other night - she wouldn't be there if the Liberals were in a distant 3rd.

The press reports that this by-election is closer than expected, the polling shows it is a Conservative vs. Liberal race.

While I am sure that GTY believes some of the things he/she is posting, it doesn't correlate with all the other reports we are seeing.

Btw, Liberal internal polling also shows that it is the Liberals who are closest to the Conservatives in this riding, not the NDP.  So the Liberal polling backs up the Forum polling.


Internal Liberal polling?? Oh for goodness sakes.

NorthReport

First Forum  Laughing

Now Liberal internal party polling  Laughing Laughing

I have just been told by someone who was made privy to some internal NDP polling that suggests they could win this by-election.  Wink

Debater

1.  I notice you didn't refute any of the other points I made that indicate why it's a Conservative-Liberal race with the NDP in 3rd.

2.  You can scoff, but the Liberal internal polling is probably accurate and is backed up by the Forum polls, the reports above from journalists, the actions of the Conservatives themselves, and the statement above from the NDP candidate herself.  Trish McAaullife admitted she is running against Justin Trudeau.

3.  Can anyone here post any articles by journalists or polls showing the NDP in contention to win?

4.  If the NDP does indeed finish 3rd tomorrow night, will those who predicted they would be 2nd or 1st be willing to admit they were wrong?

NorthReport

Has anyone else noticed this trend in the media, including the silly pollsters, concerning each and every election and by-election:

I - in formerly held Conservative seats the Conservatives are being closely challenged by the Liberals

2 - in formerly held Liberal seats the Liberals are being closely challenged by the Conservatives  

3 - every single race is so very, very close. As a result you have to pay a lot of attention the mainstream media to find out what is going on

4 - finally just do what the mainstream media suggest and all will be fine 

Debater

What I think everyone has noticed is that since April 2013, the Liberals have beaten the NDP in every single by-election.

If the NDP finishes behind the Liberals again tomorrow, the press is going to be asking Mulcair some questions.

Btw, I hear that Mulcair will be in St. John's tomorrow.  Trudeau will be in Whitby.  Hmm.

UPDATE:  Word coming through that Forum will release a final poll tonight showing Liberals now ahead of Conservatives in Whitby-Oshawa (but in a statistical tie).  Liberals with 3 point-lead in final Forum poll.

NorthReport

The only people paying attention to by-elections are posters to message boards. Laughing

 

Debater

And the entire National press. Laughing

terrytowel

Liberal strategist Susan Smith was on CTV Question Period today and was touting strategic voting for the Whitby-Oshawa by-election.

"you are going to see NDP supporters line up behind Celina to send a strong message to Stephen Harper"

NorthReport

Liberal this and Liberal that.

Could it be the Liberals are in big trouble in the by-election and are worried about ending up last?

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