By-Elections, 2014 Edition, Vol. II

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Debater

NorthReport wrote:

Could it be the Liberals are in big trouble in the by-election and are worried about ending up last?

I don't think it's the Liberals who are worried about finishing last in Whitby-Oshawa.

But I guess we'll find out at this time tomorrow night. . .

NorthReport

Current standings in the House of Commons

Cons - 161

NDP - 96

Libs - 35

Looking at these stats, if I were into strategic voting, which I am not, I think I know who I would be voting for, and it most certainly would not be the last place party that only has 35 seats in the House of Commons. 

Regardless, these by-elections will have a huge impact on politcs in Canada. Right! Laughing

Debater

The only party that has GAINED seats since the last election is the LIBERALS.

Meanwhile the NDP & Conservatives have lost them.  The NDP has already lost SEVEN seats since 2011.  From 103 -> 96.

We can see where the momentum is.

Debater

New FORUM poll - WHITBY-OSHAWA

Libs 45%

Cons 42%

NDP 10%

Green 3%

n-885, MoE +/-3%

https://twitter.com/CorComm/status/534128985354285056

NorthReport

That's why the Liberals have been crashing and burning in the polls over how many weeks and months is it now.

And I think I know who to vote for to defeat right-wing policies.

Current standings in the House of Commons

Cons - 161

NDP - 96

Libs - 35

 

Debater

NorthReport wrote:

That's why the Liberals have been crashing and burning in the polls over how many weeks and months is it now.

I think what you meant to say is that the Liberals have doubled their support in the polls since the 2011 Election, while the NDP & Conservatives have each dropped about 10 points. Laughing

PrairieDemocrat15

Debater wrote:

Now that we know only the Liberals can beat the Conservatives in Whitby-Oshawa,

Faceplam.

Its one thing to support the Liberals (though I don't get why you would do it on a left-wing website), but its another to just spam it with propaganda and talking-points. terrytowel and Debater do it for he Liberals (Pondering, IMO, is on the bubble in terms of actually discussing things and just shouting into the ether) and NorthReport does it for the NDP. Its getting old, fast. Partisan back and forthing between a few users is starting to dominate a lot of political discussions here and bringing down the quality of debate.

Debater

Prairie Democrat, I agree with you to some extent.

I was trying to talk about the by-elections, and cited actual polls & articles by journalists, but North Report resorted to his usual doom & gloom predictions for the Liberals and attempt to pretend that the polls are bad for the Liberals when they are actually extremely good.

So I decided to engage in a bit of back & forth banter because I'm in a good mood tonight after having received some inside info about how things are going in Whitby-Oshawa.

Btw, the Liberals are a left-of-centre party, whether you want to admit it or not, so it makes sense for them to be discussed on a progressive website.  The NDP have never formed a federal government and have never once beaten the Conservatives in their history.  As I just pointed out on another thread, it's a bit rich for you to portray the NDP as so much more left-wing than the Liberals when they are in fact led by a former Liberal, and a Liberal who had no trouble being in the cabinet of a former Mulroney Conservative, and who has been running away from the left-wing as fast as he can.

NorthReport

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NorthReport

Yea there was a honeymoon period when the anointed one took over, however reality has begun to set in across the land, and since then the Liberals have been dropping in the polls for the past few months. 

Debater

The full numbers for the final Forum by-election polls have now been released.  Here's the full report:

All tied up in Whitby-Oshawa. Second place Liberals surge in in Yellowhead

TORONTO, November 16th, 2014

Whitby-Oshawa

LPC - 45

CPC - 42

NDP - 10

Yellowhead

CPC - 51

LPC - 24

NDP - 13

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/186/all-tied-up-in-whitby-oshawa-seco...

Aristotleded24

Debater wrote:
Word coming through that Forum will release a final poll tonight showing Liberals now ahead of Conservatives in Whitby-Oshawa (but in a statistical tie).  Liberals with 3 point-lead in final Forum poll.

Would this be the same Forum that had the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 29 points in Brandon-Souris?

adma

Honestly, I, for one, am more inclined to agree with Debater re which way Whitby-Oshawa is presently going--that is, more of a traditional Lib-Con race.  Whether the NDP bottoms out at 10% (or less!) or comes close to equalling its 2011 share is an open question--I, myself, am preparing for bottomward rather than topward; but I wouldn't pave the electoral lay of this land in stone.  Things can be eternally fluid and shift-y; for all we know, we might have an inverse version of Kitchener-Waterloo, where a byelection basement is followed by a general-election surprise--not *betting* on it; but *allowing* for it. 

And the recent W-O ONDP share gives some halfway indication of "potential"--of course, Debater might claim "yeah, so what, they were still third".

Which is why, in generally agreeing with Debater on where things are going, I disagree with his technique--essentially, he's going about it like the Nickelback of psephology...

jjuares

Debater wrote:

Prairie Democrat, I agree with you to some extent.

I was trying to talk about the by-elections, and cited actual polls & articles by journalists, but North Report resorted to his usual doom & gloom predictions for the Liberals and attempt to pretend that the polls are bad for the Liberals when they are actually extremely good.

So I decided to engage in a bit of back & forth banter because I'm in a good mood tonight after having received some inside info about how things are going in Whitby-Oshawa.

Btw, the Liberals are a left-of-centre party, whether you want to admit it or not, so it makes sense for them to be discussed on a progressive website.  The NDP have never formed a federal government and have never once beaten the Conservatives in their history.  As I just pointed out on another thread, it's a bit rich for you to portray the NDP as so much more left-wing than the Liberals when they are in fact led by a former Liberal, and a Liberal who had no trouble being in the cabinet of a former Mulroney Conservative, and who has been running away from the left-wing as fast as he can.


Just posting articles, poll results, columns, and starting threads all designed to promote the LPC's prospect is not engaging in a debate or even a discussion. And just because it comes from another source besides yourself doesn't make it any less propaganda or talking points. It is also true you are not the only one doing this. Others are also doing this but you happen to be one of the most egregious offenders in this silly game of scouring the internet looking for material to promote a party. I can't help but wonder to what end is all your work.

Debater

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Debater wrote:
Word coming through that Forum will release a final poll tonight showing Liberals now ahead of Conservatives in Whitby-Oshawa (but in a statistical tie).  Liberals with 3 point-lead in final Forum poll.

Would this be the same Forum that had the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 29 points in Brandon-Souris?

This would be the same Forum that accurately predicted Liberal wins in the last 3 Federal by-elections in Ontario -- Trinity-Spadina, Scarborough-Agincourt & Toronto Centre.

Aristotle, I saw you post that same comment about the Brandon-Souris poll several weeks ago in another discussion on polling.

I agree that Forum's polling has been off for the Western Canada ridings - they substantially overestimated Liberal support in both Brandon-Souris & Fort McMurray-Athabasca (although they did accurately predict a substantial Liberal increase from 2011).  I said above that I'm skeptical about Forum's polls for Western Canada because of their track record.  So I don't buy that the Liberals have gone up by as much in Yellowhead as this poll claims.  There will be a Liberal increase, but not by as much as Forum is claiming.

However, when it comes to Ontario by-election polling, Forum has been pretty on the mark.  They accurately predicted double-digit Liberal wins in Trinity-Spadina, Toronto Centre & Scarborough Agincourt.

So while it's fine to mention that Forum has been well off the mark in Western Canada, are you not providing an incomplete analysis if you don't tell your readers about Forum's accurate record in Ontario?

Aristotleded24

Debater wrote:
So while it's fine to mention that Forum has been well off the mark in Western Canada, are you not providing an incomplete analysis if you don't tell your readers about Forum's accurate record in Ontario?

My readers? That's a good one! I never knew I had such a huge following from posting on such an obscure message board! I'll change the world!Laughing

Rokossovsky

Debater wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Debater wrote:
Word coming through that Forum will release a final poll tonight showing Liberals now ahead of Conservatives in Whitby-Oshawa (but in a statistical tie).  Liberals with 3 point-lead in final Forum poll.

Would this be the same Forum that had the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 29 points in Brandon-Souris?

This would be the same Forum that accurately predicted Liberal wins in the last 3 Federal by-elections in Ontario -- Trinity-Spadina, Scarborough-Agincourt & Toronto Centre.

No one needed to poll Trinity Spadina to figure out that Adam Vaughan was going to beat Joe Cressy handily. Don't be silly.

Debater

Rokossovsky wrote:

No one needed to poll Trinity Spadina to figure out that Adam Vaughan was going to beat Joe Cressy handily. Don't be silly.

I'm shocked.  You mean the NDP misled people when it said it would be a tight race? Surprised

Anyway, the point still stands.  We're talking about numbers, and Forum's numbers predicted a double-digit win for Vaughan, just as they did for Freeland in Toronto Centre & Chan in Agincourt.

All I'm interested in right now is whether Forum continues to be in the ballpark when it comes to Ontario ridings.  If Forum ends up way off on its Whitby numbers, it won't be able to claim an accurate track record for Ontario anymore.

Rokossovsky

Debater wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

No one needed to poll Trinity Spadina to figure out that Adam Vaughan was going to beat Joe Cressy handily. Don't be silly.

I'm shocked.  You mean the NDP misled people when it said it would be a tight race? Surprised

I don't recall them saying that actually, but obviously the point you are making is rhetorical, not factual. I doubt you are suggesting that an NDP overly-optimistic claim of a "tight race" in Trinity-Spadina for the purposes of mobilizing support, justifies the same in Oshawa-Whitby from enthusiastic Liberal organizers?

You seem to be suggesting that "inconsistent" polling from Forum has something to do with regional distinctions. What part of Forum's methodology, works in Ontario, but not in Manitoba, and why?

Any ideas on this problem?

Debater

The NDP actually said that Joe Cressy was going to win Trinity-Spadina, but obviously every campaign has to say they are going to win.  It would discourage the workers & voters if a campaign said otherwise.  There aren't many campaigns that want to say they are going to lose, although the odd candidate will admit it sometimes.  For example, at the end of last year's Liberal Leadership race, Deborah Coyne told the press, "I'm obviously not going to win".  None of the other Liberals were willing to admit that.

As for Whitby-Oshawa, the pollsters and the press are saying it's a tight race, so it's not something that just the Liberals are saying.

As for Forum, it seems they've had most of their trouble in the Western Canada rural ridings.  That's where they have been most off, most notably Brandon-Souris, and also in Fort McMurray-Athabasca.  Maybe it is a Western Canada issue for them because in 2013 Forum was pretty accurate in the Labrador by-election, and that's a rural riding.  Meanwhile, their Ontario polling has been pretty accurate overall.  They got the Federal by-elections right in Ontario, and also predicted Wynne would beat Hudak.

I don't really have any ideas on the problem with the polling methodology for Forum in Western Canada since I am not an expert in the regional issues involving polling.  It would be an interesting topic for a polling expert like Eric Grenier to write about.

Rokossovsky

The Toronto Star was saying Trinity Spadian would be a tight race. A tight race is more interesting to read about. Not much story in "case closed, election results are a forgone conclusion", now is there?

It is also part of the way that the news media herds voters into "least worse" option politics.

adma

=

terrytowel

Rokossovsky wrote:

No one needed to poll Trinity Spadina to figure out that Adam Vaughan was going to beat Joe Cressy handily. Don't be silly.

Having lived in the riding I said from day one that Aadm Vaughan was unbeatable. He could have run for the Green party and still win.

But everyone pooh-poohed that saying Vaughan only represented half the riding, and the other half was represented by Mike Layton and Solid NDP territory.

btw the NDP candidate in Yellowhead said he has elected not to put up any election signs as it a waste of paper and harmful to the environment.

GTY

Sunday after my previous last post I drove to Whitby-Oshawa for a last bit of help. As I entered Whitby, I noticed that the Liberals had now put up a number of large signs saying "It's time for a change vote Liberal" on the public boulevards and intersections. This added to the vertical Celina signs that started poping up at the beginning of the weekend gives a sense of momentum to their campaign.

But this narrative is orchestrated by the upper decision makers in the Liberal campaign. Fourm Research seems even more part of this Liberal narrative than just a pollster.

Some people in the news media buy into this staged narrative, but I don't. Recently the electricity rate increases were in the news. Harper signed a trade deal with China. Harper tells Putin to get out of the Ukraine. Yet Forum Research is telling us that Conservatives have suddenly started switching to the Trudeau Liberals.

But let me get back to my Sunday afternoon. The canvassing was shut down so that the data entry could be finished for the E-day event. I was sent with both the normal sized leaflet and the smaller card to drop in Poll 230. Just after starting I met three Conservative, one with a list, and the other two with large door hanger leaflets. I had the impression that they were leaving them at select locations, but they don't have the polling location printed on them.

The poll was full of two story houses with double door garages. One street probably had three each of Conservative and NDP signs and one Liberal sign, while most of the other streets in the poll had mostly Liberal signs and the occasional Conservative sign. In several mail boxes throughout the poll, the Liberal leaflet with the candidate on one side, and her with Trudeau on the other side. Except there are two versions of this leaflet, and unless you are looking at one next to the other you would see one type criticizing the conservative tax cut while the other one more promoting voting on election day. At three mailboxes in the poll I noticed a "Dear Neighbour: I am a volunteer for..." letter on Celina letterhead promoting voting on Monday. I'm sure there were more dropped but they would have been taken in just before the weekend.

I asked a fellow who was outside if he had received any phone calls from candidates, pollsters, or robo-calls. He replied that someone from the liberal campaign tried to call him according to his call display but he didn't take the call.

In this poll, it seems that the Conservatives have identified more voters, but the Liberals but the Liberals have more sign locations. As of Sunday I know of no new Liberal sign locations in one of the polls that I actually canvassed in. They doing some telephoning out of their campaign office, but I don't have evidence that it is beyond that.

Where I have been canvassing I have voters say over and over again that I am the only one who has come to their door or has spoken to them. Where are the Liberal sign locations in the five polls I've been canvassing in?

The fact is voter turnout is very low in by-elections. The weather today is crappy. Many of the people who would do any work are burnt out from the municipal elections. With a shortage of volunteers, fewer supporters are identified. Many people aren't going to vote unless they are reminded, and if you don't know who they are you aren't going to get them to vote. So unless the Liberals were smart enough to hire telemarketers to phone the voters, there aren’t going to be the numbers.

I have to leave soon as I am bringing another volunteer from Toronto for E-day. We will know tonight if the Forum poll is fact or fantasy.

Adam T

For any supporter of Pat Perkins here, the by election has been cancelled. Laughing

nicky

I certainly posted a number of entries questioning whether Cressy was rhe right candidate and predicting Vaughan's win.

But TerryT has never had much respect for facts.

Rokossovsky

nicky wrote:

I certainly posted a number of entries questioning whether Cressy was rhe right candidate and predicting Vaughan's win.

But TerryT has never had much respect for facts.

I also really question luminaries like Layton and Cressy talking up Vaughan's stint at City Hall as exemplary. The "gentleman" thing is all very nice and all, but there are plenty of things to question about Adam Vaughan, in particular his all too cozy relationship with developers.

Vaughan's tenure coincided with the condo boom, and the highest rate of density growth in the ward, ever. A little more resistance out of Adam would have been nice. It's all very well and fine to throw your hands up in the air and claim that everything is the fault of the OMB, and then go for cash deals with the condo builders to compensate, but after a while this becomes collusion. Also, renovating and refitting the Alexander Park social housing project using a P3 model, where valuable land is simply given away to developers, in exchange for services rendered and a handful of long term RGI leases, is the conversion of public property for private profit.

This nonsense of NDP people in the Trinity Spadina trying to ride on Adam's coattails needs to stop.

Vaughan is the Liberal he always was now, and while tactical alliances have there value, they also have their limits.

Rokossovsky

terrytowel wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

No one needed to poll Trinity Spadina to figure out that Adam Vaughan was going to beat Joe Cressy handily. Don't be silly.

Having lived in the riding I said from day one that Aadm Vaughan was unbeatable. He could have run for the Green party and still win.

But everyone pooh-poohed that saying Vaughan only represented half the riding, and the other half was represented by Mike Layton and Solid NDP territory.

btw the NDP candidate in Yellowhead said he has elected not to put up any election signs as it a waste of paper and harmful to the environment.

Last time he spent $18 on his campaign.

I am really sorry to hear that everyone "pooh poohed" you. I recall saying that Chow's mayoralty bid was a grevious error, and most solid NDP supporters on this board questioned the decision to run Cressy, citing the short nomination process, and his relative lack of name recognition as being problematic, despite his qualifications.

That's the way I remember it.

Brachina

 I'm the dumbass who was an original cheerleader for Chow running for mayor, man did I blow that one, it turned to shit on every front, she lost, joe lost, and the NDP got doubly embarrassed. Hind sight is 20/20, and I honestly wish she had never run for mayor.

Rokossovsky

Knowing the ward as I do, I predicted the loss of T-S, if Chow ran well before she announced her bid for mayor. She did have a decent shot at the job, so her decision was reasonable on that front. The fact is that with Chow in the race for mayor, it was entirely predictable that Vaughan would run in the by-election, and likely win without a real NDP contender -- even Chow would be hard pressed to defeat Vaughan, one on one in T-S.

But, Chow's announcement for mayor deterred Vaughan, or any other progressive tinged candidate from running for the mayor's job, so the only way up for Vaughan was at the federal level -- he is not the type to be arbitrating liquour license applications for his entire life.

I was very suspicious of the intentions of the gaggle of Liberals who recruited Olivia, and the lay of the land was such that they saw the potential to neutralize Chow. She would not be too much of a problem if she won the mayor's race, and tractable, and removing her from the federal post took out a key building block of the NDP organization downtown.

Wither Chow now? Who knows. I kind of half wish she would run in University-Rosedale against Freeland, but I doubt that. Freeland is not a great campaigner, and if Chow can mobilize the west end of the new ward, she might be able to take Freeland down, but that is by no means certain.

terrytowel

nicky wrote:

I certainly posted a number of entries questioning whether Cressy was rhe right candidate and predicting Vaughan's win.

But TerryT has never had much respect for facts.

Really? Weren't you the one that wrote

nicky wrote:

Trinity-Spadina is not done and dusted even with Vaughn running. I have been less than enthusiastic about Cressy before but must admit he is off to a good start and has had a favorable early reception. It is interesting that although Vaughn leads by 20%, Cressy leads 3 lesser known liberals by a consistent 15%. This suggests, as do recent national polls, that the generic NDP brand is robust and that Vaughn's lead is personal. To the extent it is based on name recognition it may be vulnerable. I also think, as I posted in another thread, that the public is souring on Trudeau and warming to Mulcair. This could tip the scales in T-S.

Link below

http://rabble.ca/comment/1436079#comment-1436079

Rokossovsky

I see it says that Vaughan leads by "20%", I do not see "tight race".

adma

Again, even if the NDP's closer to 20/25%, Debater will gloat about their being eternal third-place losers.

 

But one thing about the Libs which I'm surprised nobody's pointed out: Celina C-C is actually using the "Justin font" in her election signage--AFAIK a first for Liberal byelections...

https://www.flickr.com/photos/alexguibord/15488122479/

Pondering

Does anyone know where the results will come in on the net?

NorthReport

By-elections don't mean much in the scheme of things, but here is where you can get the results starting in just over 1 hour now.

http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=ele&dir=2014&document=index...

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

By-elections don't mean much in the scheme of things, but here is where you can get the results starting in just over 1 hour now.

http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=ele&dir=2014&document=index...

I agree on by-elections, thanks, on a completely different note, how the heck do people remember what everyone else said?

NorthReport

------------------------

 

bekayne

Looks like turnout is going to be around 25% for Whitby-Oshawa, 12 to 15% for Yellowhead

Aristotleded24

Looks like the NDP lost its depost in both seats.

NorthReport

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Aristotleded24

Actually NR, while the first and second place order may have been off, the poll basically got the general gist of the result we are seeing correct, and the results fall completely within the MOE.

Rokossovsky

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Looks like the NDP lost its depost in both seats.

Last time the guy there claimed $18 worth of expenses. This time he said he was not distributing any flyers because they harm the environment. Have to say, I'd love to be holding up the flag in a place like Yellowhead.

bekayne

John Turmel is currently avoiding last place by 9 votes

ctrl190

Yeesh those are bad NDP numbers in Whitby-Oshawa. The low turnout somewhat cushions the blow. 

sherpa-finn

A24 wrote: Looks like the NDP lost its depost in both seats.

Actually, that clause about needing to get 10% or 15% of the vote in order to "save your deposit" no longer applies.

From the Elections Canada website: "A candidate is required to pay a deposit of $1,000. This is reimbursed only if the candidate's official agent submits the Candidate's Electoral Campaign Return (EC 20120) and related documents to the Chief Electoral Officer and unused official tax receipts to the returning officer within the time prescribed."

So, as long as Mr Turmel sends his campaign return in on time, he can keep recycling that $1,000 ad infinitum.

NorthReport

Of concern is that presently in Whitby-Oshawa the Cons are only 4% off what they got in the last election with Flaherty, and let's face it, he was a big draw. 

Lord Palmerston

No the Tories are down about 10 points from 2011.  The Liberals have tripled their percentage of the vote, and the NDP only have a little more than a third of their vote share.

NorthReport

Thanks for catching that LP. I read it wrong and you are correct the Cons got 58% in 2011 and presently have 48.5%  

bekayne

Rokossovsky wrote:

Looks as if the anybody but John Turmel vote as out in force.

 

Currently at 99.7%

Rokossovsky

IIRC, this will be his 83rd election campaign, and his 82nd loss. To add some fun to the riddle, he didn't win one either.

 

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