Federal By-elections - Fall '13/Spring '14?

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ctrl190

It's unfortunate that Jen Hollett has her back against the wall. She is a very strong candidate - activist, journalist, Much VJ, Harvard MPA - but doesn't have a fighting chance against the Liberal upper crust Rosedale and Church Street machinery. Especially frustrating considering the potential vacancy in Trinity-Spadina next year.

terrytowel

Quote:
Especially frustrating considering the potential vacancy in Trinity-Spadina next year.

Don't you mean in TWO years? The election is not until 2015

 

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

terrytowel wrote:

I feel sorry for George Smithermann. First losing Mayor, now this.

Why? He's a neo-liberal and a dick.

terrytowel

OnTheLeft wrote:
Why? He's a neo-liberal and a dick.

So you are happy with Ford as Mayor?

edmundoconnor

Lens Solution wrote:

edmundoconnor wrote:

I have to wonder why Freeland has chosen Toronto over Edmonton.

Because that's where the by-election is ?

Absolutely. She's being an opportunist. Although she will struggle to put it in those terms. I'd take her more seriously if she had decided to run in Alberta, and put the party before her personal ambition. She could probably have had her pick of nominations in Alberta, and slogged away for years as a good party soldier, with absolutely no recognition except from a few in the party. Who knows, she might even have improved Albertans' sewer-level opinion of Liberals. Here she's got a quick hit, and if all goes well, she's off to the Commons in less than a year. Yeesh.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Ms. Freeland is a highly paid and highly trusted long time servant of the very oligarchs she purports to expose in her book. She hob-nobs with them at Davos. None of what she wrote seems to have bothered them enough to harm her relationship with them. It would seem to me that the only reasonable inference from these facts is that her actions are all part of the plan for continuing and increasing their strangle hold on money and power. She should be a perfect fit for Justin Trudeau's Liberals.

 

socialdemocrati...

I held my nose and voted for Smitherman for Mayor. He was a pathetic candidate who blew the election for Ford. He will now make tens of thousands of dollars through his political connections. Of all the people out there who have been fucked by successive Liberal and Conservative governments, you feel sorry for *him*?

adma

ctrl190 wrote:

It's unfortunate that Jen Hollett has her back against the wall. She is a very strong candidate - activist, journalist, Much VJ, Harvard MPA - but doesn't have a fighting chance against the Liberal upper crust Rosedale and Church Street machinery. Especially frustrating considering the potential vacancy in Trinity-Spadina next year.

Rosedale maybe--but re Church Street, I think Hollett's MM background may give her more of an upper hand than you think...

adma

ctrl190 wrote:

It's unfortunate that Jen Hollett has her back against the wall. She is a very strong candidate - activist, journalist, Much VJ, Harvard MPA - but doesn't have a fighting chance against the Liberal upper crust Rosedale and Church Street machinery. Especially frustrating considering the potential vacancy in Trinity-Spadina next year.

Rosedale maybe--but re Church Street, I think Hollett's MM background may give her more of an upper hand than you think...

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

terrytowel wrote:

So you are happy with Ford as Mayor?

So you'd be happy with the anti-worker "lesser evil" who would still [url=http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2010/03/03/george_smitherman_backs... services[/url], including the tax revenue lucrative and very affordable [url=http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2010/03/05/hume_privatizing_not_the_answ... Parking Authority[/url]?

socialdemocrati...

OnTheLeft wrote:
So you'd be happy with the anti-worker "lesser evil" who would still [url=http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2010/03/03/george_smitherman_backs... services[/url], including the tax revenue lucrative and very affordable [url=http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2010/03/05/hume_privatizing_not_the_answ... Parking Authority[/url]?

Yep. Ford had a message: stop the gravy train, eliminate waste. Smitherman, seeing Ford in the lead, decided to take on the same message. He was "me too", but couched in conditionals and exceptions. It's not a surprise that he lost. Too bad he's not running in Toronto Center. It would have made for an easy NDP pick-up.

Lens Solution

Running against Smitherman would not have been easy, actually.  NDP has never won the seat before, and Smitherman has strong name recognition and organization from his days in office.

 

He would have been connected to some of the McGuinty scandals and the baggage, yes, but it's by no means a certainty that he would have lost.

socialdemocrati...

Quite the contrary... the seat is a red anomaly in a sea of orange. It was Bob Rae's credibility with the "progressive non-partisan" (would vote NDP, would vote Liberal, take it on a case-by-case basis) that allowed them to hang onto the seat. Otherwise it would have gone the way of the neighboring ridings. Smitherman is tainted by scandal, and people don't like voting for losers.

Lens Solution

But prior to the 2011 red wipeout, most of the seats in the area were red.  It's hard to know whether the 2011 red wipeout was part of a new pattern, or more to do with revulsion towards Ignatieff.

Btw, it was just reported that another candidate is running for the Liberal nomination.  I'm not familiar with her, but her name is Diana Burke and it appears she is a Former RBC senior VP.

http://www.dianaburke.ca/about/

Will be interesting to see how she does against Chrystia Freeland (since that's presumably who Justin Trudeau is privately supporting).

terrytowel

Smitherman is the Hazel McCallion of Toronto Centre. IF he got the Liberal nomination, he wouldn't even have to campaign.

It would be a walk in the park for him to win, no campaiging necessary.

 

socialdemocrati...

You obviously don't know the city of Toronto very well. Once they lop off Rosedale, Smitherman wouldn't stand a chance.

nicky

I don't don't know if terrytowell lives in Toronto Centre, but I do.

I was privately hoping that Smitherman would be the Liberal candidate because I regard him as very beatable. Probably his party does too which is why he was told not to run.

He is perceived as having run a very bad campaign for mayor, veering unsuccessfully to the right to outflank Rob Ford and squandering a huge lead to a fool. Many people regard him as responsible for Ford winning.

Then there is his lamentable record in the McGuinty government. He was closely connected with E-Health and Ornge. he would also have been punished for the gas plant scandal, just as the government was in the by-elections.

May I suggest to terrytowell that George would have a better chance running in Halifax.

Aristotleded24

nicky wrote:
May I suggest to terrytowell that George would have a better chance running in Halifax.

Please don't.

terrytowel

nicky wrote:
I don't don't know if terrytowell lives in Toronto Centre, but I do.

I was privately hoping that Smitherman would be the Liberal candidate because I regard him as very beatable. Probably his party does too which is why he was told not to run.

The last poll done in Toronto Centre (June 2013) show the Liberals 25 points AHEAD of the NDP. There are only five points separating the NDP and Conservatives.

Nicky obviously doesn't know Toronto Centre that well, despite living in the riding.

Again with polling like that, it would be a walk in the park for any candidate carrying the Liberal banner.

janfromthebruce

I suggest George run in Halifax too! He'd be a shoe in.

terrytowel

janfromthebruce & nicky wrote:
I suggest George run in Halifax too! He'd be a shoe in.

Why not? Since Liberals are polling at 49% in Nova Scotia, while the NDP are barely hanging on to double digits at 12%. Even the Conservatives are ahead of the NDP in Nova Scotia, so there would be no shot on splitting the progressive vote in NS.

socialdemocrati...

Terry, I suppose you can put your June 2013 polls with your August 2010 polls and have a really pleasant dream.

Aristotleded24

terrytowel wrote:

janfromthebruce, nicky & Aristotleded24 wrote:
I suggest George run in Halifax too! He'd be a shoe in.

I said nothing of the sort. Please retract.

PrairieDemocrat15

terrytowel wrote:

janfromthebruce & nicky wrote:
I suggest George run in Halifax too! He'd be a shoe in.

Why not? Since Liberals are polling at 49% in Nova Scotia, while the NDP are barely hanging on to double digits at 12%. Even the Conservatives are ahead of the NDP in Nova Scotia, so there would be no shot on splitting the progressive vote in NS.

Of course there won't. How can the progressive vote be split when there is only one progressive party?

josh

Linda McQuaig enters NDP race in Toronto Centre. www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/08/06/columnist_linda_mcquaig_enters_nd...

edmundoconnor

Erin Weir, former SK NDP leadership candidate, criticizes Freeland. His last sentence, especially in light of McQuaig announcing, is very interesting (hat-tip to Alice Funke):

http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2013/08/02/is-chrystia-freeland-prog...

janfromthebruce

And Susan Delacourt in TorStar also seems to take a swipe at Freeland in Toronto Centre byelection tests Justin Trudeau’s ‘open race’ vow

In June, Freeland was in Ottawa just as Bob Rae was getting ready to announce he was stepping down as MP for Toronto Centre and triggering the byelection.

Freeland, who has lived and worked in New York for the past decade, was in Canada to speak at a conference of the National Union of Public and General Employees, which was held from June 14-16. She had breakfast with Trudeau and they talked about her being a candidate for his team — Trudeau was aware that Rae was leaving, a decision the former Ontario premier announced June 19 .

“I had this sort of long-term desire to come home, and then with my book, Justin’s team reached out to me,” Freeland said in an interview with the Star. “Everything that they had to say about a middle-class agenda, putting that at the centre of what they want to do — and also the positive vision of politics — that really resonated with me.”

SNIP

George Smitherman, the former Ontario health minister and Toronto mayoralty candidate, obviously reached a different conclusion. In a tactfully worded column in the Huffington Post last week, Smitherman strongly hinted that he would be fighting Trudeau if he decided to contest the nomination against Freeland.

“Fighting with Liberals isn’t my strong suit,” Smitherman wrote. “First comes loyalty to the leader.” He also said he wouldn’t be a candidate in 2015.

Freeland grew up in Alberta and worked for two years as a senior editor at the Globe and Mail, but most of her career has been spent out of the country — leaving her open to accusations that she is a parachute candidate, or, as some critics say, the new version of former leader Michael Ignatieff.

SNIP

She says, however, that she has kept her Canadian connections and indeed, in her book, Plutocrats, she thanks people such as former prime minister Paul Martin, former deputy prime minister Anne McLellan and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney for their help.

Yes Paul Martin of Canadian Shipping lines who had his ships fly under a foreign flap so his company didn't have to pay all those Canadian benefits and pensions. The same Liberal Martin who did the liberal austarity which was so right wing and in which PC Mulroney only dreamed of. Remember the same Liberals who took workers' employment insurance money to balance the liberal budget - how progressive is that?

Oh I could go on but freeland has good company for fake progressive values.

So glad that Linda McQuaig is running.

 

knownothing knownothing's picture

Great news! I predict Linda will win the nomination and the seat. Perfect match.

terrytowel

Lens Solution wrote:
Kady O'Malley reports that Freeland has an impressive set of campaign managers in place, including current Toronto Centre MPP Glenn Murray and former Toronto Centre MP Bill Graham. Looks like she means business and has brought in the big guns.  Won't be a campaign of amateurs, anyway.

I wondered why she needed all this heavy guns. Now we know. She probably heard through the grapevine about Linda McQuaig and is running scared. No one is going to like a parachute candidate, and someone who hasn't lived in the riding. She will probably get the 'just visiting' label.

This is going to be an interesting race.

 

 

Unionist

josh wrote:

[url=http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/08/06/columnist_linda_mcquaig_en... McQuaig enters NDP race in Toronto Centre[/url]

Finally, some good news! Thanks for this, josh. [PS I fixed the link - your original one didn't work for me...]

felixr

I was excited about Susan Hollett running but Linda McQuaig seems so eloquent. Her career also makes a great contrast with Chrystia Freeland. Linda McQuaig is like Chrystia Freeland if she had lived in Canada and wasn't right-wing. Maybe there is a connection there.

nicky

Here is a list of testimonials about Linda McQuaig. Kevin O'Leary's alone is almost enough to get my suppport:

 

http://lindamcquaig.ca/endorsements/

 

felixr

Ironic that Freeland wrote a book called "Plutocrats" given that she is going to be parachuted in from abroad into a Liberal safe seat by a Trudeau. What do you call that?

David Young

felixr wrote:

Ironic that Freeland wrote a book called "Plutocrats" given that she is going to be parachuted in from abroad into a Liberal safe seat by a Trudeau. What do you call that?

I'd call that the best news that the NDP could get!

Or if you're referring to Freeland herself, what about Iggy 2.0?

 

Stockholm

felixr wrote:

Ironic that Freeland wrote a book called "Plutocrats" given that she is going to be parachuted in from abroad into a Liberal safe seat by a Trudeau. What do you call that?

The ironies abound - to the extent that Toronto Centre is a "safe Liberal seat" at all (and that remains to be seen), its only because the plutocrats of Rosedale vote massively for Freeland's beloved Liberal party!

Policywonk

nicky wrote:

Here is a list of testimonials about Linda McQuaig. Kevin O'Leary's alone is almost enough to get my suppport:

 

http://lindamcquaig.ca/endorsements/

I'm don't think the Post's (as opposed to the Post columnists) testimonial was supposed to be complimentary either. She will make an very interesting candidate and MP.

Lens Solution

terrytowel wrote:

nicky wrote:
I don't don't know if terrytowell lives in Toronto Centre, but I do.

I was privately hoping that Smitherman would be the Liberal candidate because I regard him as very beatable. Probably his party does too which is why he was told not to run.

The last poll done in Toronto Centre (June 2013) show the Liberals 25 points AHEAD of the NDP. There are only five points separating the NDP and Conservatives.

Nicky obviously doesn't know Toronto Centre that well, despite living in the riding.

Again with polling like that, it would be a walk in the park for any candidate carrying the Liberal banner.

You can't use that one Forum poll to predict the Toronto Centre by-election.  The by-election won't be for a while yet (knowing Harper he will drag it out) and the highs of Trudeaumania may have subsided.

However, it may also be the case that the closer race in 2011 in Toronto Centre was more to do with Layton's popularity and revulsion towards Ignatieff.  It's possible that now Trudeau is leader and Mulcair has replaced Layton that the NDP may not do as well as it did in the area under Layton.

janfromthebruce

Or the fact that the losers in that last ONtario byelections was the Liberals and pollsters, particular Forum. Having real names and candidates really changes those numbers.

Take for example London West byelection. It was highly considered a Liberal or Conservative romp but the NDP riding association in the area picked Peggy Sattler a well known person with integrity and many times elected as a school trustee and former chair, and my goodness she won big time.

So far the NDP has some pretty high profile candidates running in Toronto Centre, for example, well known entities and that in itself is a game changer.

Lens Solution

So there are now 4 women running in Toronto Centre - 2 for each party.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/newsblogs/politics/inside-politics-blog/2013/08/meet-y...

 

Looks like the next MP for Toronto Centre will be a woman, whoever it is.  Will that be a first for Toronto Centre?  I think they've been all men so far.

knownothing knownothing's picture
edmundoconnor

nicky wrote:

Here is a list of testimonials about Linda McQuaig. Kevin O'Leary's alone is almost enough to get my suppport:

 

http://lindamcquaig.ca/endorsements/

 

The O'Leary quote is delicious!

edmundoconnor

LS: They've all been men, ever since the riding was a riding. Susan Wallace is the only Labour/CCF/NDP candidate to have cracked 30%. If the NDP gets either McQuaig or Hollett (and especially McQuaig) as their candidate, and the Tories run an actual candidate, rather than a fence post, to soak up the right wing Liberal wobblers who find Freeland's ideas a bit too spicy for their money, then this race could get very interesting. Neither of the announced NDP candidates is going to have trouble attracting volunteers for the nomination and subsequent campaign, especially for a riding that the NDP would so love to get, but hasn't yet.

josh

Quote:
In the concluding chapter of The Trouble with Billionaires, McQuaig makes her policy recommendations very clear: She advocates a marginal tax rate of 60% for incomes above $300,000, and 70% for incomes above $2.5-million — plus an inheritance tax, the eradication of high-end tax-shelters, and the creation of a tax on speculative investments. That may sound radical, but it’s not so different from some of the progressive policies implemented by the (economically healthy) nations of Scandinavia. The question is: Will Thomas Mulcair give her the green light to campaign openly on this sort of thing?

Good question.

Unionist

josh wrote:

Jonathan Kay wrote:
The question is: Will Thomas Mulcair give her the green light to campaign openly on this sort of thing?

Good question.

My definition of "good question" is, a question whose answer isn't perfectly bleeding obvious. This question is not a good question in my dictionary.

Here's a good question:

Why is it up to Thomas Mulcair? What kind of party with "democratic" in its name periodically picks a Pope who makes every single decision, large or small, accountable only to some inner circle?

Ok, that's two questions.

 

socialdemocrati...

Yeah, that's a smart and successful policy. In Scandinavia it would also be safe and moderate. Here, it's radical, because we have a neighbor to the south that thinks tax cuts for the wealthy are good for everyone, and taxes on the wealthy are bad for everyone. I would love to see the NDP campaign on this, but they're going to need a push.

Unionist

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

I would love to see the NDP campaign on this, but they're going to need a push.

Where and how would that "push" be applied? It's up to Mulcair and Mulcair alone, right? Letters and emails addressed to him?

 

janfromthebruce

Well in a constitution of the party there is responsibilities and duties which give certain authority to the leader. We don't run the party, for example by group decision making - nothing would happen.

Instead of getting on high horses here we should be excited that Linda wants to run for the NDP, and moreover, her application to be a candidate has been vetted and accepted. That would be a good indication that the NDP executive and the NDP by extension likes her economic positions.

Linda's outlined position in the book, I'ts the Crude dude is very much the position the NDP has taken and is alined progressively.

socialdemocrati...

Ideally, it would be a movement. Which is easier said than done. But it's what you need for a shift this big.

The high leverage, targeted strategy is pretty limited. Even if you can persuade that small party elite that your idea is right, your champion(s) will inevitably run up against the apathy (let alone antipathy) of everyone else. 

Even to get a nominal wealth tax in Ontario, it took an Occupy Wall Street sized movement, with spin offs in Canada, plus institutional support in the form of U.S. and Canadian media, not to mention a business-friendly U.S. President passing his own wealth tax. It was enough to give the Ontario NDP a spine to fight for it, and a provincial Liberal minority some cover for making that concession.

We'll need at least as much of a movement to achieve a $2.5 million tax bracket. (And this time, we'll be up against a media who says "hey, didn't we already raise taxes on a tiny wealthy population for the first time in a generation? Once is enough!")

For what it's worth, Mulcair (and many New Democrats) have come out in favor of a financial transaction tax, which is a revenue tool AND a way to cool the ridiculous speculation. But this one is always framed in the context of an international solution. So that one's going to need an international movement.

 

We could also just nominate and elect more New Democrats like Linda. But that will take a movement too.

Stockholm

There are rumours that more Tory MPs could step down and cause more byelections. In particular in Palliser, SK where the Tories beat the NDP by just 500 votes, the Tory incumbent Ray Boughen is very old and ailing and there is speculation the Tories may get him to quit now so they can defend his "rurban" seat now and get a new incumbent, as opposed to waiting until 2015 when the new map will create an NDP leaning seat out of most of the riding.

Noah Evanchuk was the NDP candidate who came so close last time and I would imagine that if there is a Palliser byelection, he would be the one to watch for the NDP.

knownothing knownothing's picture

Palliser is about to become part of several ridings. And Evanchuk would most likely be running in the newly formed Regina-Lewvan riding. Most of Palliser is turning into Moose Jaw - Lake Centre - Lanigan. Boughen may be old but he is tough and I have heard nothing about him stepping down early.

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