Federal By-elections - Fall '13/Spring '14?

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Stockholm

About 2/3s of the voters in the current Palliser seat will be in the new Regina-Lewvan seat. Unless Boughen is at death's door not sure why he would resign now. he was first elected in 2008 so he has to stay in Parliament for one more year to Oct. 2014 to qualify for his pension.

Brachina

 Any news on who will be running for the NDP in Quebec?

knownothing knownothing's picture

Stockholm wrote:

About 2/3s of the voters in the current Palliser seat will be in the new Regina-Lewvan seat. Unless Boughen is at death's door not sure why he would resign now. he was first elected in 2008 so he has to stay in Parliament for one more year to Oct. 2014 to qualify for his pension.

Well the population of Palliser was 68,000 in 2011 and Moose Jaw and surrounding area that will be staying in Moose Jaw - Lake Centre - Lanigan would have a population of at least 35,000. I don't know the exact population of the Regina portion of Palliser.

Ottawa Centre-Left

Brachina wrote:

 Any news on who will be running for the NDP in Quebec?

Yes, from the always excellent Alice over at Pundit's Guide (with full credit to her), who is doing ongoing detailed updates on byelections:

=====================================================================================================

Running for the NDP in Bourassa now are both: (i) their 2011 candidate, translater Julie Demers, and (ii) a PSAC regional vice-president, Haitian-born Larry Rousseau. Ruling himself out of both the Bourassa and Toronto Centre races on the other hand is former party president and leadership candidate Brian Topp.

=====================================================================================================

Brachina

Thank you and Alice Ottawa.

 

 I thinks it interesting that we would could have NDP women author and activist vs. Liberal Woman Autbor and Activist in TC and NDP Haitian vs Liberal Haitian in Broussa both at the same time. like what would odds of that be.

 Sounds like the NDP has alot of great people running so I'm excited. 

 I like how Linda rt a comment on how the NDP has 2 intelligent woman running for the nomination, it shows class.

 I also liked how she rt about Australia having a 16 dollar minium wage. Holy Crap on a cracker.

Lens Solution

Looks like PLQ MNA Emmanuel Dubourg has made it official that he is running for the LPC to replace Denis Coderre.

 

 

Emmanuel Dubourg candidat dans Bourassa pour le PLC

 

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201308/...

 

Depending on whether Rousseau or Demers wins the nomination for the NDP, all 3 parties in Bourassa (LPC, NDP & Greens) could have a candidate of Haitian background running!

 

Demers did well in Bourassa in 2011, but Rousseau may have more organization as a PSAC V.P.  Who is best-positioned to win the NDP nomination?

Stockholm

There is some speculation that a third person may decide to seek the NDP nomination in Bourassa and that it may be someone quite high powered. i heard a pundit on TV speculate that it might be Laure Waridel who spoke at the NDP convention in montreal and is a big name in environmental circles in Quebec as the founder of Equiterre. If she were to run she would probably win the nomination hands down and COULD be a game changer as an NDP candidate who would probably suck up almost all of the BQ vote and who would also nip Laraque in the bud. But these are still just idle rumours.

Centrist

Stockholm wrote:
Laure Waridel who spoke at the NDP convention in montreal and is a big name in environmental circles in Quebec as the founder of Equiterre.

In that regard, we all know that Tom is a proponent of TransCanada's proposed natural gas pipeline conversion from natural gas to Alberta tar sands crappy bitumen through Montreal to the east coast, which they now call "Energy East". Based upon numerous MSM stories to date, it looks like the major opposition of this pipeline will come from both environmental groups and First Nations.

More importantly, it also looks like this major opposition to "Energy East" in Canada will come from Quebec alone - for now. How do we deal with that?! 

 

autoworker autoworker's picture

Then, there's that pesky business involving the Clarity Act, which should provide some interesting commentary in both Toronto and Montreal. It will be interesting to see how Mulcair co-ordinates his position in Ontario
and Quebec.

CanadaOrangeCat

Refining Canadian oil in Canada might allow us to bring back a Canadian price for oil and throw out the Free Trade deal with the US.

janfromthebruce

COC - now that sounds good.

Lens Solution

Is the NDP leaning towards a Haitian candidate in Bourassa?  This Gazette article almost makes it sound like a foregone conclusion, but I got the sense on the ground earlier this Summer that 2011 candidate Julie Demers had the momentum for the NDP nomination.  Has that changed?

 

----

 

Haitian candidates loom large in yet-to-be-called Bourassa byelection

 

http://www.montrealgazette.com/sports/Haitian+candidates+loom+large+call...

David Young

This just sounds like more of the Liberal-friendly media diluting the fact that someone prominent in an ethnic community has dared not to run for the Liberal Party of Canada, as the Liberal-friendly media has been telling Canadians for generations that the Liberal Party of Canada is only political party that ethnic Canadians should be supporting.

 

Ottawa Centre-Left

It's time to add another by-election to the list:

Brandon-Souris (Manitoba) Conservative MP Merv Tweed says he's resigning seat effective Aug 31 "to pursue opportunities in the private sector."

 

Stockholm

Brandon-Souris is up there with Provencher as one of the most supersafe Tory seats in Canada - so not much of interest there. The NDP has some support in the city of Brandon itself, but that gets totally diluted by the virtually unanimous Tory support in the rural parts of the seat.

Lens Solution

Don Martin of CTV says that this departure by Tweed is 'very odd' and that it may have something to do with the railway transportation issue (Tweed was on the House Committee).  Now he will take over Omnitrax.

https://twitter.com/DonMartinCTV

trotwood73

Lens Solution wrote:

Is the NDP leaning towards a Haitian candidate in Bourassa?  This Gazette article almost makes it sound like a foregone conclusion, but I got the sense on the ground earlier this Summer that 2011 candidate Julie Demers had the momentum for the NDP nomination.  Has that changed?

That would be a strategically weak move for the NDP,  when the Greens and Liberals will likely be pushing Haitian candidates.

Here’s an interesting article in last week’s Calgary Herald:

Liberals, NDP ready to grapple for federal riding in Montreal – once the byelection is called

Quote:
As for the NDP, Jeffrey said the party won’t stand a chance against the Liberals if Demers runs for the orange banner. “The NDP needs all the help it can get, it needs a strong candidate,” she said, saying Demers simply doesn’t have the public profile to win.

Stockholm

Why should we pay any attention whatsoever to what Brooke Jeffrey has to say when the article says she has "Liberal ties"???

knownothing knownothing's picture

Yeah, I also found that article quite condescending

Krago

Stockholm wrote:

Brandon-Souris is up there with Provencher as one of the most supersafe Tory seats in Canada - so not much of interest there. The NDP has some support in the city of Brandon itself, but that gets totally diluted by the virtually unanimous Tory support in the rural parts of the seat.

 

Brandon: CONS 8,927 (55%), NDP 5,359 (33%), GRN 1,021 (6%), LIB 983 (6%)

Rural: CONS 13,459 (71%), NDP 3,486 (19%), GRN 991 (5%), LIB 899 (5%)

Total: CONS 22,386 (64%), NDP 8,845 (25%), GRN 2,012 (6%), LIB 1,882 (5%)

 

Also, Brandon-Souris is one of 18 seats where the Greens outpolled the Liberals in the 2011 federal election.  I wonder if Justin will return the favour for Labrador.

Aristotleded24

Merv Tweed is gone. So what now?

I think it is a mistake to write off Brandon-Souris (and for that matter, Provencher) as a super-safe Tory seat. The fact that there is a by-election actually allows the NDP to target more resources to these seats than they would in a general campaign, and that will be really helpful in building the party going forward. And we have historical examples to go by. Elmwood-Transcona was traditionally a "super-safe" NDP seat, but then the Tories won it. And why did the NDP waste all that energy in the Outrement riding in 2007? It was such a safe Liberal seat with the NDP perennially in 3rd or 4th, did anyone seriously think the NDP would ever take that riding? Oh wait....

Ironically enough, Tweed's first run was a year after the provincial NDP's best-ever showing in southwestern Manitoba, and had people voted the same way federally as they had provincially the previous year, the NDP would have taken that seat.

Lens Solution

I think Brandon-Souris was one of only 12 ridings the PC's under Joe Clark managed to retain in 2000.  PC MP Rick Borotsik who had been the Brandon Mayor, managed to hold off the Canadian Alliance.  So perhaps there is a more moderate vote there that is willing to move from the Conservatives if the circumstances are right.

When it comes to Bourassa, this Professor Jeffrey in Montreal may have a point - it often takes a game-changing candidate to alter the dynamics in a stronghold.  Mulcair was able to win Outremont because he was a big name provincial cabinet minister who could appeal across the board to more than one party voter - NDP, BQ and Liberals.  That enabled him to change history in the riding.  Now that it looks like both the Liberals & the Greens will have a candidate well-known in the Haitian community, it may require the NDP to also have a candidate who can reach out to voting groups that previously did not vote that way, as Mulcair did in Outremont.

 

Aristotleded24

Lens Solution wrote:
I think Brandon-Souris was one of only 12 ridings the PC's under Joe Clark managed to retain in 2000.  PC MP Rick Borotsik who had been the Brandon Mayor, managed to hold off the Canadian Alliance.  So perhaps there is a more moderate vote there that is willing to move from the Conservatives if the circumstances are right.

Exactly, and many non-PCs voted for Borotsik for that exact reason. I think there was also a bit of a Brandon/rural split in terms of the distribution of the votes, but I would have to look at the data to know for sure. One of the reasons Borotsik cited for not offering again in 2004 was uncertainty over Harper.

If we have any NDP strategists reading this, here is the order in which I think things need to be done:

1) Engage the First Nations. First Nations tend to support the NDP, but have very low voting rates. There are 2 First Nations in that constituency, and they are often ignored.

2) Crack the rural vote. This is tough, as they are spread out, but it is doable if you target it correctly. I would love to see Mulcair in places like Pipestone or Melita or Waskada, even with a small gathering, and pointing out that he's there and Harper isn't. Remind people that the Conservatives are taking the seat for granted.

3) Consolidate the vote in Brandon City. As this is where the NDP vote is most strongly concentrated, effort here will pay off.

Lens Solution

JUST IN -- Toronto Centre #NDP announces nomination mtg for Sunday, September 15, 2:00 PM at the Toronto YMCA. #TorCen #byelxn41

 

https://twitter.com/punditsguide

Stockholm

It will be particularly challenging for the NDP to make any kind of serious run in Provencher or Brandon-Souris when the provincial NDP government is quite unpopular right now.

David Young

Sounds like someone who's finally realized that he's never going to make it into cabinet, so he'll take his parliamentary pension (having just celebrated his 58th birthday on August 6th) and run.

 

adma

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Merv Tweed is gone. So what now?

I think it is a mistake to write off Brandon-Souris (and for that matter, Provencher) as a super-safe Tory seat. The fact that there is a by-election actually allows the NDP to target more resources to these seats than they would in a general campaign, and that will be really helpful in building the party going forward.

And let's remember, too, that the NDP took a similar approach to the Dauphin-Swan River byelection next door--and, lacking an urban centre of Brandon's size, that's even more "super-safe" than Brandon-Souris.  Sure, it may have been futile in the end; but it was still worth it, for the sake of judging and road-testing barometers and "potential"...

Aristotleded24

adma wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Merv Tweed is gone. So what now?

I think it is a mistake to write off Brandon-Souris (and for that matter, Provencher) as a super-safe Tory seat. The fact that there is a by-election actually allows the NDP to target more resources to these seats than they would in a general campaign, and that will be really helpful in building the party going forward.

And let's remember, too, that the NDP took a similar approach to the Dauphin-Swan River byelection next door--and, lacking an urban centre of Brandon's size, that's even more "super-safe" than Brandon-Souris.  Sure, it may have been futile in the end; but it was still worth it, for the sake of judging and road-testing barometers and "potential"...

Although Dauphin did go NDP in 1980, while Brandon hasn't.

felixr

The NDP federally is led by Easterner (and a former Liberal). Would that have any effect in how the NDP is seen in Manitoba (maybe less linked to the Selinger govt)?

I'm concerned with the NDP starting to look more and more like the current Liberals in Western Canada. In other words, fading from the map in everywhere but BC. First the NDP lost Saskatchewan, last election it began to lose Manitoba, and winning in Alberta is a historical anomaly. Getting relected there, moreso!

Lens Solution

The NDP has lost ground in the Prairies, although some of that could be because of circumstances.  It's certainly weird that when you think about it, the NDP under Alexa McDonough had very little support nationally compared to what it earned under Jack, and yet, it held a number of seats in SK & MB in those days.

Weird that the LPC holds a seat in SK and the NDP doesn't, but part of that may be because the rest of the SK seats have boundaries that have favoured the CPC till now.

It does look like there was deterioration of some kind in MB.  It was surprising to see Winnipeg North lost to the Liberals after Judy W-L retired.  Kevin Lamoureux has name recognition from his days in the Provincial legislature, but it was still surprising when he pulled off the upset.  As for Elmwood-Transcona, the departure from the federal scene of a giant like Bill Blaikie made the seat harder to keep.  Maloway was not able to achieve the same towering stature of Blaikie, although granted it was a tough act to follow.  CPC were narrowly able to win the seat in 2011, although it was close and that was one of the ridings that also had possible robocall fraud.  Still, the CPC probably wouldn't have pulled off the win if Blaikie had still been there.

autoworker autoworker's picture

The NPD is now a Quebec first party. What more needs to be said?

janfromthebruce

Yes, it's so sad that under Layton, the most popular leader in Canada that they won all those Quebec seats from the Bloc (and conservatives) and was propelled to official opposition. And sad that it won the most seats in Ontario behind the Conservatives. And it was rough that Orange crush hadn't quite made it out west although most races from northern Ontario and beyond were all Conservative/NDP races in which the libs just weren't competitive.

I'm sure the other national parties - Greens and Libs are glad they don't have that problem to contend with, just saying. Kiss

David Young

Would there be any former NDP M.L.A.s from the Brandon area as a credible candidate in Brandon-Souris?

Arthur?  Can you be of any help on this matter?

 

adma

Aristotleded24 wrote:

adma wrote:
And let's remember, too, that the NDP took a similar approach to the Dauphin-Swan River byelection next door--and, lacking an urban centre of Brandon's size, that's even more "super-safe" than Brandon-Souris.  Sure, it may have been futile in the end; but it was still worth it, for the sake of judging and road-testing barometers and "potential"...

Although Dauphin did go NDP in 1980, while Brandon hasn't.

Federally, of course.  But in terms of 2013, Brandon'd seem a likelier bet (relatively speaking) than Dauphin, largely because the NDP's more urban-based than it was in 1980, when it still held a fair bit of rural-prairie-populist sway...

autoworker autoworker's picture

janfromthebruce wrote:

Yes, it's so sad that under Layton, the most popular leader in Canada that they won all those Quebec seats from the Bloc (and conservatives) and was propelled to official opposition. And sad that it won the most seats in Ontario behind the Conservatives. And it was rough that Orange crush hadn't quite made it out west although most races from northern Ontario and beyond were all Conservative/NDP races in which the libs just weren't competitive.

I'm sure the other national parties - Greens and Libs are glad they don't have that problem to contend with, just saying. Kiss

True, but a divided opposition in Ontario may yet provide the CPC with another majority. Repudiation of the Clarity Act will hurt the Dippers here, federally.

Stockholm

autoworker wrote:

True, but a divided opposition in Ontario may yet provide the CPC with another majority. Repudiation of the Clarity Act will hurt the Dippers here, federally.

The only people who even know what the (lack of) Clarity Act even is are a few wonks with degrees in Poli Sci and some partisan Liberals still beating off over a portrait of Pierre Trudeau.

Aristotleded24

David Young wrote:
Would there be any former NDP M.L.A.s from the Brandon area as a credible candidate in Brandon-Souris?

None that I can think of off the top of my head. I don't know if former Brandon-West MLA Scott Smith or current Brandon-East MLA Drew Caldwell would be interested. Former Brandon East MLA Len Evans is quite up there in years, and former Brandon West MLA Henry Carroll actually ran for the Reform Party in 1988.

My guess is that John Bouche will want to take another run at it. Whether or not it will be a contested nomination run remains to be seen.

Aristotleded24

autoworker wrote:
janfromthebruce wrote:

Yes, it's so sad that under Layton, the most popular leader in Canada that they won all those Quebec seats from the Bloc (and conservatives) and was propelled to official opposition. And sad that it won the most seats in Ontario behind the Conservatives. And it was rough that Orange crush hadn't quite made it out west although most races from northern Ontario and beyond were all Conservative/NDP races in which the libs just weren't competitive.

I'm sure the other national parties - Greens and Libs are glad they don't have that problem to contend with, just saying. Kiss

True, but a divided opposition in Ontario may yet provide the CPC with another majority. Repudiation of the Clarity Act will hurt the Dippers here, federally.

You do realize that there is more to Canada than Ontario and Quebec? Such as Western Canada, where the Liberals are not a viable option and a rise in NDP support will cut into the Conservative seat count regardless of what happens in Ontario or Quebec?

Aristotleded24

adma wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

adma wrote:
And let's remember, too, that the NDP took a similar approach to the Dauphin-Swan River byelection next door--and, lacking an urban centre of Brandon's size, that's even more "super-safe" than Brandon-Souris.  Sure, it may have been futile in the end; but it was still worth it, for the sake of judging and road-testing barometers and "potential"...

Although Dauphin did go NDP in 1980, while Brandon hasn't.

Federally, of course.  But in terms of 2013, Brandon'd seem a likelier bet (relatively speaking) than Dauphin, largely because the NDP's more urban-based than it was in 1980, when it still held a fair bit of rural-prairie-populist sway...

That's complicated. Brandon is a city with a University (most of the graduates end up moving away) and challenges that one associates with living in an urban environment, like poverty and homelessness. But it's a much smaller city, and that is reflected in the attitudes. Major news events have an impact on the whole community in Brandon in ways they don't in a larger cities, simply due to the small size and how close-knit it is. It is also changing as many new Canadians make Brandon their home.

I think if the NDP does it right, they can combine the best elements of being urban-based and rural-prairie-populism and win the seat.

Lens Solution

Stockholm wrote:

autoworker wrote:

True, but a divided opposition in Ontario may yet provide the CPC with another majority. Repudiation of the Clarity Act will hurt the Dippers here, federally.

The only people who even know what the (lack of) Clarity Act even is are a few wonks with degrees in Poli Sci and some partisan Liberals still beating off over a portrait of Pierre Trudeau.

Kind of an exaggeration.  The clarity act issue is certainly not as big on the radar as it was back in the 1990's when it was passed and there were all the debates about separation, but the concept is still supported by most Canadians outside Quebec.  Even a couple NDP Premiers are uncomfortable with the idea of the Federal NDP wanting to abolish it and told Mulcair to be cautious earlier this year because they don't want the issue to arise in their provinces.

autoworker autoworker's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

autoworker wrote:
janfromthebruce wrote:

Yes, it's so sad that under Layton, the most popular leader in Canada that they won all those Quebec seats from the Bloc (and conservatives) and was propelled to official opposition. And sad that it won the most seats in Ontario behind the Conservatives. And it was rough that Orange crush hadn't quite made it out west although most races from northern Ontario and beyond were all Conservative/NDP races in which the libs just weren't competitive.

I'm sure the other national parties - Greens and Libs are glad they don't have that problem to contend with, just saying. Kiss

True, but a divided opposition in Ontario may yet provide the CPC with another majority. Repudiation of the Clarity Act will hurt the Dippers here, federally.

You do realize that there is more to Canada than Ontario and Quebec? Such as Western Canada, where the Liberals are not a viable option and a rise in NDP support will cut into the Conservative seat count
regardless of what happens in Ontario or Quebec?

You're right, there is more to Canada than Ontario (although I would say that Quebec now shares the decreasing electoral relevance, as the Maritimes, and Prairies). It's just that, in terms of a national campaign
strategy, what matters in Brampton is more relevant to winning seats, than in Brandon, or Beaconsfield. Realistically, the next general election will be decided by how Ontario votes.

edmundoconnor

Krago wrote:

Also, Brandon-Souris is one of 18 seats where the Greens outpolled the Liberals in the 2011 federal election.  I wonder if Justin will return the favour for Labrador.

I think we all know he won't. I wonder how long Greens will put up being used by the Liberals like this. A relationship where only one side makes sacrifices isn't partnership. It's exploitation.

adma

Aristotleded24 wrote:
That's complicated. Brandon is a city with a University (most of the graduates end up moving away) and challenges that one associates with living in an urban environment, like poverty and homelessness. But it's a much smaller city, and that is reflected in the attitudes.

Much smaller than WinRegSask.  But, much larger than Dauphin...

janfromthebruce

Aristotleded24 wrote:

autoworker wrote:
janfromthebruce wrote:

Yes, it's so sad that under Layton, the most popular leader in Canada that they won all those Quebec seats from the Bloc (and conservatives) and was propelled to official opposition. And sad that it won the most seats in Ontario behind the Conservatives. And it was rough that Orange crush hadn't quite made it out west although most races from northern Ontario and beyond were all Conservative/NDP races in which the libs just weren't competitive.

I'm sure the other national parties - Greens and Libs are glad they don't have that problem to contend with, just saying. Kiss

True, but a divided opposition in Ontario may yet provide the CPC with another majority. Repudiation of the Clarity Act will hurt the Dippers here, federally.

You do realize that there is more to Canada than Ontario and Quebec? Such as Western Canada, where the Liberals are not a viable option and a rise in NDP support will cut into the Conservative seat count regardless of what happens in Ontario or Quebec?

I agree with this statement and when statements are made that suggest certain areas of Canada don't matter or matter alot less, it's hurtful. In Ontario, the OLP is really going down due to Liberals will do and say anything to get elected - those gas plants and huge costs of cancelling have painted this govt as corrupt.

Aristotleded24

adma wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:
That's complicated. Brandon is a city with a University (most of the graduates end up moving away) and challenges that one associates with living in an urban environment, like poverty and homelessness. But it's a much smaller city, and that is reflected in the attitudes.

Much smaller than WinRegSask.  But, much larger than Dauphin...

Still, I think Brandon would relate more to Dauphin than WinRegSask. To give an example, when people in big cities see a front page picture of a traffic accident or major crime, that's all it is, a headline. In Brandon, you likely know someone who is connected to that event.

Aristotleded24

autoworker wrote:
You're right, there is more to Canada than Ontario (although I would say that Quebec now shares the decreasing electoral relevance, as the Maritimes, and Prairies). It's just that, in terms of a national campaign strategy, what matters in Brampton is more relevant to winning seats, than in Brandon, or Beaconsfield. Realistically, the next general election will be decided by how Ontario votes.

So how much sense does it make to have a national campaign that only takes into account the needs of Ontario? Doesn't sound like the best way to run a national campaign to me.

Lens Solution

edmundoconnor wrote:

Krago wrote:

Also, Brandon-Souris is one of 18 seats where the Greens outpolled the Liberals in the 2011 federal election.  I wonder if Justin will return the favour for Labrador.

I think we all know he won't. I wonder how long Greens will put up being used by the Liberals like this. A relationship where only one side makes sacrifices isn't partnership. It's exploitation.

Let's be realistic here.  Elizabeth May did not pull her candidate in Labrador to help the Liberals or the NDP.  She did so because the Greens have no resources in the area and only have 2 members of their party in that part of the country.  There was a thread on it here at the time.

When Elizabeth May can, she often runs competitive campaigns against the Liberals and NDP.  She did so in Victoria last year against the NDP, and in Calgary Centre against the Liberals.  Now she is doing so again in Bourassa with her Deputy Leader.  So I don't think she's trying to help either party, actually.

knownothing knownothing's picture
janfromthebruce

Lens Solution wrote:

edmundoconnor wrote:

Krago wrote:

Also, Brandon-Souris is one of 18 seats where the Greens outpolled the Liberals in the 2011 federal election.  I wonder if Justin will return the favour for Labrador.

I think we all know he won't. I wonder how long Greens will put up being used by the Liberals like this. A relationship where only one side makes sacrifices isn't partnership. It's exploitation.

Let's be realistic here.  Elizabeth May did not pull her candidate in Labrador to help the Liberals or the NDP.  She did so because the Greens have no resources in the area and only have 2 members of their party in that part of the country.  There was a thread on it here at the time.

When Elizabeth May can, she often runs competitive campaigns against the Liberals and NDP.  She did so in Victoria last year against the NDP, and in Calgary Centre against the Liberals.  Now she is doing so again in Bourassa with her Deputy Leader.  So I don't think she's trying to help either party, actually.

E. May has never helped the NDP and has most often acted as the Liberal's cat's paw. Just want to clear that up.

David Young

E. May has never helped the NDP and has most often acted as the Liberal's cat's paw. Just want to clear that up.

Agreed!