Federal By-elections - Fall '13/Spring '14?

455 posts / 0 new
Last post
nicky

Linda challenges Freeland to a debate:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJveXlWhQuM

 

(I wd really like to see Tom and Justin debate)

Brachina

nicky wrote:

Linda challenges Freeland to a debate:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJveXlWhQuM

 

(I wd really like to see Tom and Justin debate)

Me too, but we all know Justin will run and hide until he has no other choice during the 2015 election.

Centrist

Well, still very early in the campaign, but here are the first polling results of the 4 by-elections from Forum Research - the robo-call pollster (not my fave by a long shot):

Quote:
Poll shows Liberals leading 3 out of 4 by-elections

By Brian McKechnie  Global News

TORONTO – Prime Minister Stephen Harper called federal by-elections on Sunday for Toronto Centre, the Montreal riding of Bourassa and the Manitoba ridings of Provencher and Brandon-Souris, and according to a poll conducted by Forum Research, the Liberals are leading in three of the four ridings.

A random sampling of public opinion shows the Liberals have strong leads in Toronto Centre and Bourassa, and have a surprising slight lead over the Conservatives in Brandon-Souris. The Conservatives are strong in Provencher, a safe bet for them.

The NDP, which has strong contenders in Toronto and Bourassa, is trailing by a wide margin in the ridings, according to poll results.

In Toronto Centre, Liberal candidateChrystia Freeland has close to half the vote with 45 per cent support compared to NDP candidate Linda McQuaig, who has 30 per cent support. The Conservatives and the Greens barely register with 18 per cent and 7 per cent support, respectively.

The Bourassa riding shows similar results with Liberal candidate Emmanual Dubourg leading with 47 per cent support compared to NDP candidate (and former member of the band Bran Van 3000) Stephane Moraille, who only has 18 per cent support. The Bloc Quebecois candidate has 15 per cent support, while the Green candidate, who withdrew from the race the day the polling took place, has just 12 per cent support.

The Manitoba riding of Brandon-Souris has the closest race, with the Liberal candidate Rolf Dinsdale and Conservative candidate Larry Maguire almost neck-and-neck with 39 per cent support and 35 per cent support, respectively. The NDP and Green candidate are both holding 12 per cent support.

Provencher is considered one of the safest Conservatives seats in the country and candidate Ted Falk has a huge lead with 56 per cent support compared to Liberal candidate Terry Hayward, who has a meek 29 per cent support. The NDP candidate has 9 per cent support and the Green candidate has 6 per cent support.

“For the Liberals to be leading in Bourassa is expected, and in Toronto Centre, it’s to be anticipated. But for a federal Liberal to be leading in Brandon‐Souris is a strange result indeed. The Justin factor seems to be working right across the country,” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

The by-elections have been set for Nov. 25.

Forum Research conducted the poll on Oct. 17-18 with results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of randomly selected Canadians over the age of 18. Margin of error for Toronto Centre results are +/- 3 per cent, Bourassa results are +/- 5 per cent, Brandon-Souris results are +/- 5 per cent, and Provencher results are +/- 6 per cent.

http://globalnews.ca/news/913973/poll-shows-liberals-leading-3-out-of-4-by-elections/

Aristotleded24

NorthReport wrote:
So realistically which seat has the most promising prospects for a win for the NDP?

I'd rank the prospects accordingly:

1-Toronto Centre

2-Bourassa

attainable

3-Brandon-Souris

long shot

4-Provencher

safe Conservative

Stockholm

Centrist wrote:

In Toronto Centre, Liberal candidateChrystia Freeland has close to half the vote with 45 per cent support compared to NDP candidate Linda McQuaig, who has 30 per cent support. The Conservatives and the Greens barely register with 18 per cent and 7 per cent support, respectively.

That comes as no surprise to me...in the 2011 election Rae took 41% and the NDP took 30% and the Tories took 22% - so basically since the 2011 election the NDP has retained its big gains and the Liberals have gained a little bit of ground from the Tories...being down 45-30 at the starting gun is not insurmountable but when all is said and done this contest was really mainly about positioning the NDP and McQuaig to win the new post redistribution Toronto Centre. I like running from behind but not so far behind as to be seen as utterly hopeless.

NorthReport

So realistically which of the 4 seat shas the most promising prospects for a win by the NDP?

Whichever one it is, let's put 100% of our resources into it .

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Well, pretty dam depressing. Especially Bourassa. If Canadians elect Trudeau PM, it shows we're dumber then Americans.

Aristotleded24

The more I think about it, the more I am still scratching my head about those Liberal polling results out of Brandon. Last election, the Liberals finished dead last. There is no on-the-ground infrastructure for the Liberals of any significance outside of Winnipeg. The upcoming provincial Liberal leadership race has not garnered any attention whatsoever, and that is in spite of recent polling suggesting the Manitoba Liberals are in second place. And let's not forget that Brandon-Souris is deeply Conservative.

So what is going on there? I expected the Liberal numbers to bounce a bit from right-wing vote splitting and Trudeaumania, but are those 2 really enough to propel the Liberals to first place? Especially since the federal NDP has polled around 20% in Brandon in the last 4 federal elections?

Please. Somebody tell me what's going on here.

NorthReport

How about a wee bit more balanced reporting than Forum's attempt at manipulating the voters into thinking that there is some big change taking place here when there is probably none

Toronto Centre previously held by Liberals will probably go Liberal again nothing new here so please move on.

Bourassa previously held by the Liberals will probably go Liberal again, once again nothing new so please move on here as well

Provencher was a Con seat and will remain a Con seat so move on here too

and Brandon Souris was a Con seat and will probably be a Con seat again.

 

 

What's the big news again?

Oh, maybe this, eh:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberals-expense-postings-raise-question...

 

 

 

 

NorthReport
Stockholm

Aristotleded24 wrote:

The more I think about it, the more I am still scratching my head about those Liberal polling results out of Brandon. Last election, the Liberals finished dead last. There is no on-the-ground infrastructure for the Liberals of any significance outside of Winnipeg. The upcoming provincial Liberal leadership race has not garnered any attention whatsoever, and that is in spite of recent polling suggesting the Manitoba Liberals are in second place. And let's not forget that Brandon-Souris is deeply Conservative.

So what is going on there? I expected the Liberal numbers to bounce a bit from right-wing vote splitting and Trudeaumania, but are those 2 really enough to propel the Liberals to first place? Especially since the federal NDP has polled around 20% in Brandon in the last 4 federal elections?

Please. Somebody tell me what's going on here.

I have to think that the Tories are suffering a bit from all the controversy around their rigged nomination contest etc...I think that in the end - even if this poll shows it being close - the Libs will have "peaked too soon". As we all know, byelections tend to have low turnouts and organization is critical...I think that unless some massive tidal wave developped the Tories will win Brandon if for no other reason than that they have an organization and the Liberals don't

Aristotleded24

Stockholm wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

The more I think about it, the more I am still scratching my head about those Liberal polling results out of Brandon. Last election, the Liberals finished dead last. There is no on-the-ground infrastructure for the Liberals of any significance outside of Winnipeg. The upcoming provincial Liberal leadership race has not garnered any attention whatsoever, and that is in spite of recent polling suggesting the Manitoba Liberals are in second place. And let's not forget that Brandon-Souris is deeply Conservative.

So what is going on there? I expected the Liberal numbers to bounce a bit from right-wing vote splitting and Trudeaumania, but are those 2 really enough to propel the Liberals to first place? Especially since the federal NDP has polled around 20% in Brandon in the last 4 federal elections?

Please. Somebody tell me what's going on here.

I have to think that the Tories are suffering a bit from all the controversy around their rigged nomination contest etc...I think that in the end - even if this poll shows it being close - the Libs will have "peaked too soon". As we all know, byelections tend to have low turnouts and organization is critical...I think that unless some massive tidal wave developped the Tories will win Brandon if for no other reason than that they have an organization and the Liberals don't

That's plausible. But how do you account for the Liberals being in second and the NDP being tied for dead last, considerng that the NDP has more organization in and around Brandon than the Liberals do, especially in light of the riding history I just posted?

adma

Aristotleded24 wrote:
That's plausible. But how do you account for the Liberals being in second and the NDP being tied for dead last, considerng that the NDP has more organization in and around Brandon than the Liberals do, especially in light of the riding history I just posted?

Well, look at it this way: with a little help from bloodline, Dinsdale likely registers as a "Rick Borotsik PC" kind of Liberal.

Centrist

Aristotleded24 wrote:
That's plausible. But how do you account for the Liberals being in second and the NDP being tied for dead last, considerng that the NDP has more organization in and around Brandon than the Liberals do, especially in light of the riding history I just posted?

Firstly, it's Forum Research and their robo-poll numbers can bounce around all over the place. Just look at Forum's different numbers during last year's Durham, Victoria, and Calgary Centre by-election polls. And they were way off the mark in Victoria compared to the actual results:

http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/15603_Durham_Calgary__Victoria_By-Elections_%28Forum_Research%29_%2820121113%29.pdf

That said, the fact that the Manitoba NDP government is polling 15% behind the Manitoba provincial Cons is also a drag on the federal scene in Manitoba. And Probe Research's recent federal numbers for Manitoba also may explain something.

http://www.probe-research.com/documents/131010%20Sept%202013%20Federal%20Standings.pdf

nicky

Compare the Toronto Centre poll with results of the last Forum poll in that riding.

https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/13054_Toronto_Centre_by-Election_%2806202013%29%28Forum_Research%29.pdf

This was taken in June before McQuaig and Freeland were even mentioned in the media as candidates.

The gap with the Liberals has narrowed from 24 to 15%. The liberals have fallen fro 49 to 45 and the NDP has risen from 25 to 30. The other parties are pretty stable.

We can still pull this one out.

KenS

Pundits Guide: By-election slates, Bourassa bombshells, and polls out Monday

At the moment her blogpost refers to the elections probably being called for 25 November.  No doubt Alice Funke will update the blog soon.

nicky

Here is the previous Forum poll for Bourassa, taken in May and before any candidates were chosen:

https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/18255_Bourassa_by-Elections_(Forum_Research)(18052013).pdf

 

The Liberals have increased their standing from 45 to 47%

The NDP fell from 21 to 18, but regained second place from the Bloq whicch fell from 26 to 15.

The Green vote soared from 3 to 12% and will probably now evaporate with Laroque's departure.

Not great numbers for the NDP, given that they got 32% in the general election. Hopefully they will pick up much of the Green vote and establish themselves in second place. Perhaps then, like in the Outremont by-election, they can stampede much of the Bloq vote in their direction and make a race of it.

Skinny Dipper

No doubt Linda McQuaig will have a great campaign team.  However, I think it is unlikely that she will win the by-election in Toronto-Centre.  As I have mentioned in other comments, the rich people of Rosedale who normally vote Conservative or Liberal will likely vote Liberal in order to keep out Linda McQuaig.  While the rich Rosedalians are a small group, they will be more likely to vote on the by-election day than the middle income and poorer people living south of Bloor.

Brachina

All I can say is I hope the Forum poll is wrong, it has been the odd man out recently as far polling is concerned.

Our best shot seems to be Toronto Centre which seems reasonably close.

Mulcair is going to start attacking Justin hard, really hard, like maybe a negative tv ad, but a good one, not like Harpers.

janfromthebruce

I think that one has to be careful attacking Trudeau in this regard. If you are going for the same voters the idea is not to turn them off.

Brachina

I'm not suggesting something personal and mean, more like a comparesion between Mulcair's record and Justin's.

trotwood73

The irony of this (and the look on Justin's face) is priceless:

Chrystia Freeland on the advantages of having a famous daddy :

"It’s increasingly the case that your job prospects are correlated, not with how hard you work, not with how well you do in school, but with the job your father had. And that’s not Canada."

 

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture
Brachina

Count them 3, 3 wonderful female candiates running for the NDP, mawhahahahaha. And a really cool dude too.

Aristotleded24

Mulcair will be in Brandon tomorrow, I heard this on the radio.

David Young

According to the Pundit's Guide Website, former Liberal prospect Frank Godon has entered the Brandon-Souris race as a Libertarian candidate.

Would this be seen as good news by the Harper forces, who want the anti-Harper vote fractured as much as possible?

 

jerrym

David Young wrote:

According to the Pundit's Guide Website, former Liberal prospect Frank Godon has entered the Brandon-Souris race as a Libertarian candidate.

Would this be seen as good news by the Harper forces, who want the anti-Harper vote fractured as much as possible?

 

A Libertarian, whatever his previous political designation, may well take more votes from the Cons than the Liberals because it represents the far-right of Conservatism on many issues. 

janfromthebruce

which is interesting as this individual was going to run for the Liberals but stepped down for personal reasons. It thus suggests that Liberal means anything and nothing but most definitely closer to conservatism.

Aristotleded24

jerrym wrote:

David Young wrote:

According to the Pundit's Guide Website, former Liberal prospect Frank Godon has entered the Brandon-Souris race as a Libertarian candidate.

Would this be seen as good news by the Harper forces, who want the anti-Harper vote fractured as much as possible?

 

A Libertarian, whatever his previous political designation, may well take more votes from the Cons than the Liberals because it represents the far-right of Conservatism on many issues.

It might take votes away from the Liberals over marijuana.

Having said that, the Libertarian Party in Manitoba is so weak that I don't see them having an impact.

adma

janfromthebruce wrote:

which is interesting as this individual was going to run for the Liberals but stepped down for personal reasons. It thus suggests that Liberal means anything and nothing but most definitely closer to conservatism.

Or it could echo the lately-woeful state of the Liberals in the Prairies (cf. the Sask provincial wing, which has lately flirted w/Libertarian-fringe status)

Centrist
David Young

It was just on the news that Alberta Conservative Ted Menzies, M.P. for MacLeod, has resigned.

The first rat to jump from the sinking ship?

Wanna bet Harper calls a quick by-election in this safe seat, in order to show Canadians that the Conservative brand is still strong?

 

 

Wilf Day

mark_alfred wrote:

Found an interview with Stéphane Moraille on the CBC when she was first running.  She strikes me as a very cool person.

What are the implications of the Montreal municipal elections in this riding?

The federal riding of Bourassa includes the two districts of the Borough of Montréal-Nord, plus about a third of Rivière-des-Prairies district. In one Montréal-Nord district, Équipe Denis Coderre got 72.20% while Projet Montréal got only 10.25%. In the other, Équipe Denis Coderre got 63.29% while Projet Montréal got only 15.35%. In Rivière-des-Prairies Équipe Denis Coderre got 67.73% while Projet Montréal got only 16.65%.

Does this mean Coderre's machine is intact and unbeatable? In 2011 he got 40.9%, but in 2008 he got 49.8%. I don't see any good omens?

mark_alfred

Recent polling.  Bourassa seems unwinnable.  The only faint hope is Toronto-Centre, but seems there's still a pretty big gap (47% to 32%).  The only surprising news is that the Liberals seem to be pulling off a miracle in Brandon-Souris and are going to take it.  So, Smiling-Harper takes over from Harper.

Mind you, the poll apparently over-represents middle-aged voters, due to over-reliance on land-lines (which are less used by younger voters).  But, younger voters don't really vote in high numbers.  I dunno.  It's frustrating.  It'll be interesting to see the results.

Brachina

Not just middle aged voters, but old voters too and to a larger extent. Abacus has criticismed them for this, and even Forum themselves have a caveat that it all depends on voter turnout, so they just admitted Liberal victory is far from certain.

socialdemocrati...

Nothing gained, no loss. It would be great if the NDP can pull off an upset in Toronto Center. But life will go on if they don't. I hope Linda will stick around.

DLivings

It's not over till it's over.  After watching the debate (thank you to who posted the link), I can imagine voters leaning towards "anyone but Harper" will be wrestling with where best to cast their vote.   The media and ground games may well be crucial in helping voters make up their minds - McQuaig's long time in the riding, and stand on issues facing voters, the superficial nature of "Team Justin".  With Parliament back in session next week, hopefully opportunity will present itself to highlight the leadership contrast between the Libs and ndp as well.

I'm cautiously optimistic that McQuaig will take this one!

Brachina

I think Linda has a great shot at winning it, not garunteed, but a great shot, Stephane Morialles has a fair shot, but the odds are against her, and the ones out West, its looks bad.

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/stephen-harper-mails-byelection-v... Brandon voters: I need you. Love, Stephen Harper:[/url]

Quote:
The Conservative Party has taken the unusual step in the Brandon-Souris byelection of distributing letters signed by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, urging people to vote for his party.

...

 

The letter’s return address indicates it came from the Conservative Party of Canada, but also contains the signature of Harper.

The unusual move is only the latest in what has been a bizarre and increasingly close byelection, one each party appears desperate to win.

Leaders of both the NDP, Tom Mulcair, and Trudeau have visited the riding to ramp up support for their candidates, Cory Szczepanski and Rolf Dinsdale respectively.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Brachina, Brandon-Souris means nothing; that riding will NEVER go NDP. The Libs are going to win because people are mad at Harper and Sellinger.

NorthReport

Why am I getting the impression that the Bourassa riding by-election is a lot closer now than it was even just a couple of weeks ago, and that the Mulcair-led NPD has a shot at winning it? What's changed to make this a horserace?

NPD hopes to turn Bourassa orange this weekend

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/hopes+turn+Bourassa+riding+orange+th...

Brachina
NorthReport

That about sums it up Art.

Senate scandal has put Stephen Harper in uncharted territory:

Make no mistake about the RCMP torpedo that has hit Stephen Harper’s ship of state this week. It has thrown the prime minister in uncharted waters with barely more than a plank to hold on to.

 

Arthur">http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/11/22/senate_scandal_has_put_ste... Cramer wrote:

 

Brachina, Brandon-Souris means nothing; that riding will NEVER go NDP. The Libs are going to win because people are mad at Harper and Sellinger.

NorthReport

Harper's handling of crumbling Montreal bridge 'inexcusable,' Mulcair says

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/harpers-handling-of-crumbling-mo...

NorthReport

Excellent!

Why reporters shouldn't predict vote results:

Other than the risk of looking stupid, media predictions often become part of the political game.

http://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2013/11/22/why_reporters_shouldnt_pr...

knownothing knownothing's picture

Gap is closing in latest Forum Poll

TC - Libs 48 NDP 35

Bourassa - Libs 43 NDP 31

Brandon - Libs 50 Con 36

Prov. - Con 48 Libs 37

Aristotleded24

knownothing wrote:
Gap is closing in latest Forum Poll

TC - Libs 48 NDP 35

Bourassa - Libs 43 NDP 31

Brandon - Libs 50 Con 36

Prov. - Con 48 Libs 37

I wonder what the pre-vote polls would have said about the Outrement by-election in 2007.

knownothing knownothing's picture

Lorne Bozo is still leaving the door open for an NDP victory in TC despite his Lib-biased projections

Polling companies should be banned

adma

Interesting that *Provencher* is now so close (maybe the old "Iftody Metis" electorate is being repatriated?)

nicky

I notice that the Forum panel for Bourassa reported that it voted 2 to 1 for the Liberals over the NDP in. 2011.For Tor C it was more than 3 to one for the Libs.
Yet in 2011 each riding voted roughly 41% Lib and 30% NDP.
I have applied Forum's vote migration figures to the 2011 results and get 41% Lib and 39% NDP, only minute lead,
What gives?

Pages