Federal By-elections - Fall '13/Spring '14?

455 posts / 0 new
Last post
Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Freeland is not 13 points ahead of McQuaig; that's just nonsense. I say McQuaig has a real and serious shot! I think the Libs are panicking. If  they win it'll be because the NDP vote stayed home; that's what happened in Winnipeg North.

NorthReport

NDP by-election win Monday depends on voter turnout

Better “get out the vote” will push NDP to victory, otherwise it’s 3 Liberals and a Conservative

 

Of the two, the odds favour Linda McQuaig in Toronto-Centre proving the pollsters wrong a little more than Stéphane Moraille upsetting favoured Liberal candidate Emmanuel Dubourg in Bourassa. Dubourg was already well-known from his six years as a Member of the National Assembly in Québec.

But in both cases, if the NDP can mobilize enough to vote (historical patterns over the past twenty years show that average turnout only runs 30-33 per cent, with 8-10 per cent voting in advance polls, so getting your voters to vote matters much more than in a general election), their candidates can win.

Brandon-Souris remains a case where the Conservatives are on track to lose one due solely to upsetting the community.

-----------------------------

What these add up to is the following:

For Stephen Harper (who has not campaigned personally for any of his four candidates), nothing. None of these votes are turning on the Senate scandal, or, indeed, on any other policy or move by the Harper government. Holding Brandon-Souris, on the other hand, would be a plus for the Prime Minister (Provencher is considered “safe”, and the other two contests would require the polls be wrong by four to one margins for Conservative victories to occur), given the disarray Maguire’s nomination has caused in the riding.

For Justin Trudeau (and this is the surprise), these results also mean nothing, unless he loses one of Bourassa or Toronto-Centre). His two eastern ridings were considered “safe,” and in both cases the candidates are his selections. A win in Brandon-Souris, on the other hand, isn’t a sign of a Liberal resurgence after decades on the Prairies, but simply divisions in Conservative ranks.

For Daniel Paillé, the Bloc leader, seeing the Bloc’s vote in Bourassa come back to the traditional 25 per cent mark from the 16 per cent gained in the 2011 general election would represent a positive sign, even if the Bloc candidate isn’t the winner.

Elizabeth May’s Green Party is making no special effort (as they did, for instance, in both Calgary-Centre and Victoria during the 2012 by-elections there) in any of these four, so no gains for her, either.

As for Tom Mulcair of the NDP, any win tomorrow is a plus. (Two wins — which are not being projected even by party insiders — would show the public shifting behind Mulcair as a result of his pressure on the Prime Minister daily over the Senate mess.) One win makes it clear that Trudeau is not the lock to replace Harper that the national polls suggest.

Turnout is the key: high for Mulcair to smile, low for Trudeau to claim momentum.

Unionist

Aristotleded24 wrote:

knownothing wrote:
Gap is closing in latest Forum Poll

TC - Libs 48 NDP 35

Bourassa - Libs 43 NDP 31

Brandon - Libs 50 Con 36

Prov. - Con 48 Libs 37

I wonder what the pre-vote polls would have said about the Outrement by-election in 2007.

Mulcair was polling 38% to the Liberals' 32% just before the September 2007 byelection, according to a [url=http://tvanouvelles.ca/lcn/infos/national/archives/2007/09/20070914-0741... poll of the time, while the CBC said he was polling [url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/mulcair-clinches-outremont-for-ndp-1.73081... than 10 points ahead[/url]. However, he exceeded expectations when he captured 47.5% of the votes on election night vs. 29% for the (now forgotten) Liberal candidate.

 

janfromthebruce

There were no cell phones called for these polls and that's a huge problem in TorCen where most people use cells and not landlands. It's always a problem in urban centres. And also ppl reported they got robocalled polled for forum but do not reside in TorCen. The NDP is known for getting out their vote on eday.

Brachina

For some perpective on the forum polls, I saw it mentioned in the comments section of an article someone posted that forum not only called them several times, but that they live in Trinity Spadina!

So yeah just the latest evudence forum's polling is becoming more and more wack.

Brachina

http://m.thestar.com/#!/canada/federal-byelection-candidates-should-trea...

 

 A touch of perpective on the Byelection cwmpaigns and they're place in the greater picture.

socialdemocrati...

This election was always going to be about one thing: turnout. I'm not sure that the low-intensity of a by-election is good for the NDP. Turnout statistically favors old people, and old people statistically favor Trudeau nostalgia. But it's within range of winning if Liberal intensity is overstated (which is a real possibility in the polls), and if the NDP has a great GOTV.

If the NDP can match their orange wave performance from 2011, under a new leader, with no national campaign push behind them... That would be incredible news in of itself.

takeitslowly

for whats its wroth, i am going to help out with LInda's campaign tomorrow and i almost never volunteer.  personally, i think as a trans woman, she is great for our community.  I dont trust the liberals and i believe they are good at throwing the marginalized under the bus.  Freeland reminds me of those superficial and fake corporate types- i do not see why we need more of those in Ottawa.i am not sure if any trans people will be voting, i know some of us may not be comfortable with showing ID. the biggest enemy , i believe is apathy toward the three major parties and the cold weather. we need LInda because she knows  alot about economic policies and she is what the NDP and Ottawa need. no matter the result, we need to fight hard because snobbish people who had it easy in life dont deserve to take us for granted

janfromthebruce

Have fun takeitslowly. Eday is fun and intense. Get your voters out and be kind. It goes such a long way.

NorthReport

And of course he is correct about some things he is saying. The NDP bless therir souls have got to learn to stop running against jobs. And if they lose tomorrow it will be because they are perceived as not supporting jobs.

 

Tory tone, NDP policies put a floor under the Liberals

 

http://o.canada.com/news/politics-and-the-nation/tory-tone-ndp-policies-...

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

NorthReport wrote:

And of course he is correct about some things he is saying. The NDP bless therir souls have got to learn to stop running against jobs. And if they lose tomorrow it will be because they are perceived as not supporting jobs.

Tory tone, NDP policies put a floor under the Liberals

http://o.canada.com/news/politics-and-the-nation/tory-tone-ndp-policies-...

Sigh.

That might be the perception.  And if it is, it's a problem for the NDP.  But opposing Keystone isn't about opposing jobs.  Keystone ships raw product out of the country for processing elsewhere.  In otherwords, it ships jobs out of the country.  There is no reason bitumen can't be processed in Canada, creating tens of thousands of jobs.

Brian Glennie

"I've....just made a big decision."

Lou Reed, "Heroin"

 

I've decided I'm going to get excited about tonight. I want to see Tom do really well and I think he will.

felixr

Polls showed a narrow win for the NDP the weekend before the Outremont byelection.

NorthReport

Whose polls because there are glaring differences bewteen pollsters?

NorthReport

99% of working Canadians don't spend a lot of time on politics. They are too busy just trying to find a decent job and providing for their families.

I agree with you Lou but Stephen Harper wins because he uses the KISS approach and it usually works for him. When you have to spend a lot of time explaining something in politics you are done!

 

Lou Arab wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

And of course he is correct about some things he is saying. The NDP bless therir souls have got to learn to stop running against jobs. And if they lose tomorrow it will be because they are perceived as not supporting jobs.

Tory tone, NDP policies put a floor under the Liberals

http://o.canada.com/news/politics-and-the-nation/tory-tone-ndp-policies-...

Sigh.

That might be the perception.  And if it is, it's a problem for the NDP.  But opposing Keystone isn't about opposing jobs.  Keystone ships raw product out of the country for processing elsewhere.  In otherwords, it ships jobs out of the country.  There is no reason bitumen can't be processed in Canada, creating tens of thousands of jobs.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Stephen Harper wins because he uses the KISS approach

Unionist

NorthReport wrote:

Whose polls because there are glaring differences bewteen pollsters?

See my post #303 above.

NorthReport

Thanks Unionist.

----------------------------------------------

Whatever happens, happens.

If the NDP don't win any seats tonite, and regardless of what MSP press says, and seriously who gives a frig what they do say, it will not be the end of the world like Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu is braying about, concerning the Iran-USA secret but successful, at least so far, negotiations over Iran's nuclear research.  Laughing

 

lagatta

North Report, surely you don't think class-conscious workers had to work less hard or fewer hours to ensure their and their family's subsistence?

NorthReport

Will we use this thread for the eection results tonite, and how are we gonna get the results anyways?

NorthReport

Just listened to Chris Hall comment on the by-elections, giving his not-so-subtle biased viewpoint.

They are so used to it at the CBC News Dept, it must just come second-nature to them, and they don't even realize they are doing it. NOT! Frown

NorthReport

So it appears that the Montreal and Toronto by-election voting ends at 9:30 PM Eastern time - do polls really close that late?

Brachina

 The Star is live tweeting the results, its the top story on thier site.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Will we use this thread for the eection results tonite, and how are we gonna get the results anyways?

http://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?lang=e

Brachina
NorthReport

After one poll Liberals in the lead in Bourassa by one vote with the Cons, the BQ, and the NDP tied for second. Laughing

NorthReport

Looks like it's a wrap for the Cons in Provencher. Laughing

Aristotleded24

Only Toronto Centre has no results posting yet.

NorthReport

And the Cons have at least the initial lead in Brandon Souris. Oh, oh!

takeitslowly

no one voted in Toronto Centre i guess.  Bob Rae pledge to stay on as MP.

NorthReport

People can't count very well in Toronto!  Wink

NorthReport

Liberals pulling away from second-place NPD in Bourassa, because of a strong showing by the Bloc.

NorthReport

Remember it was 2 Cons, and 2 Lbs  who initially won these elections in 2011, and it looks like 2 Con seats and 1 Liberal seat so far,

Trudeau can't be very happy right now.

NorthReport

Right now Cons have 57% of the vote in Brandon-Souris. We really do have a Liberal Party of Canada-loving mainstream press in Canada, don't we.

NorthReport

Pitiful, pitiful showing for the NDP in Manitoba - this needs to be asddressed sooner rather than later, eh!

Unionist

takeitslowly wrote:

Bob Rae pledge to stay on as MP.

For which party? Tongue out

NorthReport

Bourassa, 46-35% right now.

Brachina

 Its still too early to call anything right now.

Brachina

 Only 15 polls in Brandon are in and 10 in Broussa. Too early to call.

NorthReport

TC - 50-24% for Freeland so it looks like nothing whatsoever is going to change. Laughing

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Right now Cons have 57% of the vote in Brandon-Souris.

Now down to 45%. Must have been rural polls reporting first.

Brachina

 Its one poll in TC, I wouldn't stress over it, maybs its from Rosedale ;p

Aristotleded24

Brachina wrote:
Only 15 polls in Brandon are in and 10 in Broussa. Too early to call.

That really depends on which polls are coming in. The First Nations will go big for the Liberals. The rural areas will most definitely go Conservative, but they may have a reduced margin. The Conservatives may outright lose Brandon City. If it's mostly rural polls coming in so far, Dinsdale still has a chance. It's filpped a few times, so there's probably a mixture of polls reporting right now.

Unionist

My desk is calling Outremont for T. Mulcair.

TiradeFaction

NorthReport wrote:

Right now Cons have 57% of the vote in Brandon-Souris. We really do have a Liberal Party of Canada-loving mainstream press in Canada, don't we.

Gap seems to be closing, though they haven't even counted 10% of the ballots yet. Linda McQuaig is catching up to Freeland as well.

bekayne

Dinsdale inching ahead in Brandon-Souris

Aristotleded24

Unionist wrote:
My desk is calling Outremont for T. Mulcair.

LOL!

TiradeFaction

NorthReport wrote:

Right now Cons have 57% of the vote in Brandon-Souris. We really do have a Liberal Party of Canada-loving mainstream press in Canada, don't we.

Gap seems to be closing, though they haven't even counted 10% of the ballots yet. Linda McQuaig is catching up to Freeland as well.

*edit* Dinsdale's in the lead now.

TiradeFaction

McQuaig and Freeland are almost evenly matched right now. This is gonna be a nail biter...

NorthReport

TC - 44-42% Lib right now

Pages