Federal By-elections - Fall '13/Spring '14?

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NorthReport

TC NDP has lead by 4 votes!

Go Linda Go!!!

NorthReport

What % did NPD get in Bourassa in 2011?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

McQuaig now AHEAD by four votes in TC.  Looks like Bourassa is slipping away, though.

Very Far Away

Linda is at 47.8% now. 

TiradeFaction

McQuaig continues to jump ahead, big lead now against Freeland. Too early to tell though if it will stick.

Also what's up with this? "NDP MLA Drew Caldwell here at Lib reception in #bdnsouris #byelxn pic.twitter.com/gAmfLjQVPf " Did he like get lost or something?

NorthReport

Bourassa - 2011 election results - NPD - 32%, so basically the same result.

99.9999% of the time, the best way to win a rifing is to start knocking on doors the day after the previous lection. Actually that is 100% of the time. Is the NDP/NPD doing that everywhere it can now getting ready for the next federal election, which might be called canytime.

 

Winston

TiradeFaction wrote:

McQuaig continues to jump ahead, big lead now against Freeland. Too early to tell though if it will stick.

Also what's up with this? "NDP MLA Drew Caldwell here at Lib reception in #bdnsouris #byelxn pic.twitter.com/gAmfLjQVPf " Did he like get lost or something?

He's a douchebag.

Brachina

 It sounds like a slight increase in Broussa for the NDP, that's not to bad compared to the 18% Stephanie had in the polls at the beginning of the compaign. It shows that the NDP is still a major player in Quebec and its clos enough to build on for 2015.

clockwise

NDP starting to pull ahead a bit in TC.

Shame about Bourassa, though.

NorthReport

It has tightened up in TC with less 1% difference.

If Linda wins, and it is still a big if, she could be to Mulcair in ROC in the next federal election, what Mulcair was to Jack in Quebec in 2011. 

Linda on the NDP front bench would do wonders, as she has the ability and the credibility to cut throught the right-wing and Liberal bullshit in our MSP.

TiradeFaction

"Robert Benzie @robertbenzie.@TorontoStar #torcen decision desk may go out on a limb and say Freeland wins: Libs 11193, NDP 8477 CPC 1969 GPO 743 207/274 in."

Isn't it way too early to call this?

NorthReport

TC 45-42%, 113 vote lead for Libs now! 

Winston

Toronto Star wrote:

@robertbenzie.@TorontoStar #torcen decision desk may go out on a limb and say Freeland wins: Libs 11193, NDP 8477 CPC 1969 GPO 743 207/274 in.

I presume that is based on the Lib HQ's numbers.

Well, shitty! Still good effort made by everyone in Toronto, and in all the by-election campaigns

NorthReport

Probably but it's the Star - would you expect anything different from them!!! Laughing

Winston

TiradeFaction wrote:

Isn't it way too early to call this?

With a lead like that, no it's not.

NorthReport

Libs 46-41% for Libs 

Now 45% to 41%

TiradeFaction

Winston wrote:

TiradeFaction wrote:

Isn't it way too early to call this?

With a lead like that, no it's not.

Where are they getting those numbers? According to Elections Canada it's far from certain yet. Are they just behind?

NorthReport

NPD are at idential 32 per cent of vote in Bourassa as 2011. No too shabby!

ghoris

The open cheerleading for the Liberals among the media is, as always, quite nauseating.

Aristotleded24

TiradeFaction wrote:

"Robert Benzie @robertbenzie.@TorontoStar #torcen decision desk may go out on a limb and say Freeland wins: Libs 11193, NDP 8477 CPC 1969 GPO 743 207/274 in."

Isn't it way too early to call this?

With the numbers being reported by Election's Canada so far, these numbers look like they would be low for the riding, unless the turn-out at the remaining polls was quite low. We don't even know that the Liberals had all the polls covered.

takeitslowly

if Linda doesn't win, its beause of the conservative- liberal alliance.

NorthReport

Year / NDP / LIb / 

2013 / 41% / 46%

2011 / 30% / 41%

 

So far NDP are making a bigger gain with 11% as opposed to the LIbs 5% gain in Toronto Centre

 

spoonful

Looks to be a good night for Justin Trudeau.

DLivings

ghoris wrote:

The open cheerleading for the Liberals among the media is, as always, quite nauseating.

Agreed...   every twitter by Robert Menzie from the Star notes, "a big cheer goes up" when Freeland's numbers are on top.  I didn't see anything from him when McQuaig was in front.

 

Aristotleded24

The Aristotelian Decision Desk has called Provencher for the Conservatives.

NorthReport

TC Although it does not look good at the moment, we have a long ways to go yet, with only 75 out of 268 polls reporting.

bekayne

Aristotleded24 wrote:

TiradeFaction wrote:

"Robert Benzie @robertbenzie.@TorontoStar #torcen decision desk may go out on a limb and say Freeland wins: Libs 11193, NDP 8477 CPC 1969 GPO 743 207/274 in."

Isn't it way too early to call this?

With the numbers being reported by Election's Canada so far, these numbers look like they would be low for the riding, unless the turn-out at the remaining polls was quite low. We don't even know that the Liberals had all the polls covered.

Scrutineers report back to the parties before Elections Canada releases the results. Am I correct?

 

takeitslowly

Conservative earned  22 percent of the vote in Toronto centre in the 2011 election. They have 6.9 percent now. How can the NDP win when the Conservative and Liberals team up to stop NDP?

NorthReport

I hope the NDP scrutineers are keeping close watch on both the election  officials and the ballots in the very close races.

Aristotleded24

bekayne wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

TiradeFaction wrote:

"Robert Benzie @robertbenzie.@TorontoStar #torcen decision desk may go out on a limb and say Freeland wins: Libs 11193, NDP 8477 CPC 1969 GPO 743 207/274 in."

Isn't it way too early to call this?

With the numbers being reported by Election's Canada so far, these numbers look like they would be low for the riding, unless the turn-out at the remaining polls was quite low. We don't even know that the Liberals had all the polls covered.

Scrutineers report back to the parties before Elections Canada releases the results. Am I correct?

I believe so, but again, we don't know that the Liberals had scrutineers at every polling station.

Aristotleded24

Surprised that the Green vote in Brandon collapsed as much as it did. Looks like neither they nor the NDP will win back their deposits.

NorthReport

Looks like that's it for TC. Congrats to the winner! It felt nice to have the lead even if it was only for a little while. Laughing

DLivings

takeitslowly wrote:

Conservative earned  22 percent of the vote in Toronto centre in the 2011 election. They have 6.9 percent now. How can the NDP win when the Conservative and Liberals team up to stop NDP?

Clearly, that's the new coalition that is emerging - the Cons and Libs under the Jr. Trudeau banner...   this is a story taken from Western Canada for decades...  right wing parties unite in an "anybody but the ndp" campaign.

takeitslowly

Congrats Freeland, you won because the Conservatives voted for your party!

ghoris

The media narrative tomorrow morning will be that the Liberals are now the most viable alternative to the Tories, even in rural Western Canada, based on the strong Liberal showings in Brandon-Souris and Provencher. Of course, this overlooks the fact that the Liberals appear to have had a relatively close result in what should be one of their safest seats in Toronto Centre. It also overlooks the fact that, notwithstanding the 2011 crash-and-burn, the Liberals have always had decent levels of support in the two Manitoba seats and have actually held both of them within the last 20 years. Lastly, the albatross of the Selinger government's unpopular PST hike cannot have helped the NDP in two ridings where it has traditionally struggled to compete.

(Fun piece of political trivia: Manitoba Finance Minister Jennifer Howard was the federal NDP candidate in Brandon-Souris in 1997. She finished fourth with 13% of the vote.)

NorthReport

Toronto Centre

Year / NDP / LIb /

2013 / 39% / 47%

2011 / 30% / 41%

 

 

 

takeitslowly

DLivings wrote:

takeitslowly wrote:

Conservative earned  22 percent of the vote in Toronto centre in the 2011 election. They have 6.9 percent now. How can the NDP win when the Conservative and Liberals team up to stop NDP?

Clearly, that's the new coalition that is emerging - the Cons and Libs under the Jr. Trudeau banner...   this is a story taken from Western Canada for decades...  right wing parties unite in an "anybody but the ndp" campaign.

 

yet..i have friends that tell me there are no differences between the parties. I dont want them to be my friends anymore.

socialdemocrati...

It's probably not the Conservatives voting Liberals so much as it is the Conservatives (and most people) staying home. In by-elections, turnout is generally lower. And when turnout is generally lower, the voters generally skew older, with younger voters tuning out.

takeitslowly

Toronto Centre

 

 

2013 Conservative : 22 percent

2011 Conservative : 8. 8 percent (so far)

NorthReport

That is very understandable as most people are working too hard trying to earn a living rather than watch themselves be screwed over by some lyin' politician. One can hardly blame them. Don't be so harsh on your firends as they are more important than politics on any given day.

NorthReport

In the scheme of things, with all the silly Trudeau hype from the mainstream press the NDP has come out ok. 

socialdemocrati...

Toronto Centre Turnout:

2011: 55670

2013: 16046 (so far)

bekayne

Brandon-Souris might get over 50% turnout, the only one that'll be close

NorthReport

So the NPD held its own in Quebec and the NDP increased its share of the vote in Ontario - not too shabby!

DLivings

And McQuaig concedes...  "Consider this just a trial run for the real thing in 2015, McQuaig says

spoonful

McQuaig concedes. Devastating night for Mulcair.

DLivings

spoonful wrote:

McQuaig concedes. Devastating night for Mulcair.

Not really...   none of the 4 seats were ndp in 2011, even with the Orange Wave.  And Toronto Centre was much closer for the ndp than it's ever been.  I'm betting McQuaig will be in Parliament after 2015.

bekayne

spoonful wrote:

McQuaig concedes. Devastating night for Mulcair.

Eh, not quite

bekayne

The only Conservative leaders to lose Branon-Souris in the last 60 years: Kim Campbell and...

Aristotleded24

bekayne wrote:
The only Conservative leaders to lose Branon-Souris in the last 60 years: Kim Campbell and...

Unless we have mainly rural polls to report, I'm prepared to make that call.

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