Federal By-elections - Fall '13/Spring '14?

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NorthReport

Sounds more like Liberal talking points as the NDP increased its share of the vote by 7% in TC. Laughing

spoonful wrote:

McQuaig concedes. Devastating night for Mulcair.

Brachina

 Were talking a riding with 50% of the population being high income, so the fact that the NDP got 41 percent is really good. I had a bad feeling when I heard that the North End, read richer end of the riding had a higher vote then the South end, so 41% is not bad at all, very close and something that can be built on and best of all its evidence that Trudeaumania played no part in Broussa or TC. I don't even think its responsible for Brandon, which was more anger over local issues and the fact that they basically were running someone with Tory roots. I think anither week of Mulcair kicking ass during QP and Justin making an ass out of himself would have swayed both Broussa and TC towards the NDP.

 Tomorrow will be the battle of the spin. 

 I figure that the 11 point increase for the NDP mostly came out of the Liberal vote, which means that the Liberals probably swallowed a huge chunk of the Tory vote. I can't help, but wonder if its possible the Tories could came in 3rd in 2015.

 

 Also take note, Mulcair has a couple years to keep rocking QP and other venues and so on.

Aristotleded24

Brachina wrote:
Tomorrow will be the battle of the spin.

Tomorrow, we win the by-election in Macleod! ;)

socialdemocrati...

Guys. The turnout in this by-election was half that of 2011. Nobody took anyone else's votes. People just stayed home.

bekayne

Aristotleded24 wrote:

bekayne wrote:
The only Conservative leaders to lose Branon-Souris in the last 60 years: Kim Campbell and...

Unless we have mainly rural polls to report, I'm prepared to make that call.

Conservatives now lead by 38

DLivings

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

Guys. The turnout in this by-election was half that of 2011. Nobody took anyone else's votes. People just stayed home.

I agree with Brachina's analysis...   ndp picked up progressive votes that went Liberal previously, and conservative votes are fleeing a sinking ship and making the 'anything but ndp' vote by voting LIberal

socialdemocrati...

That's not analysis. That's blind guessing. The numbers don't tell you that. What we know from by-elections: turnout is lower in general, and is lowest for parties that are in third place (why bother voting at all).

Brachina

 I get what your saying SM, maybe its just a feeling, not conclusive.

 Any who, while not idle, I can live with the results, although out West needs major improvement. All this stuff should keep the NDPs anaylists busy for awhile.

 

 And now we go back to watching Mulcair rip Harper to pieces day in and out.

NorthReport

Nothing much has changed since 2001.

In 2011, 2 of these seats were Cons, and 2 were Libs, and now in 2013, the results of the 2013 by-elections are: 2 Con seats and 2 Lib seats.

And yes, most people were disinterested, as these by-elections had no chance of bringing down the government.

And the Cons holding Brandon Souris sure takes the wind out of the sails of the Liberals and their lackey mainstream press. 

They can huff and they can puff, but nothing much else, as most Canadians can figure things out for themselves.

NorthReport

Those Green Party votes in Brandon Souris, had they gone to their Liberal buddies, Lberals would have ended up on top. What a shame! Laughing

NorthReport

The best vote result, bar none tonite, goes to Ted Falk, the Conservative Candidate in Provencher, with 58% of the vote. 

Policywonk

http://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts_e.aspx

All in all not a great night for any party. The Liberals failed to gain a seat, the Conservatives were smashed in Toronto and Montreal, and the NDP lost significant ground in Manitoba but gained in percentage terms in Toronto and held their percentage of the vote in Montreal. The Greens are not worth mentioning. No big winners or big losers I think (unless you include the Greens), although had the Liberals won one of the seast in Manitoba I would have said they had been fairly big winners.

 

socialdemocrati...

NO SEATS CHANGE HANDS

DEVASTATING NIGHT FOR NO ONE

Wilf Day

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

It's probably not the Conservatives voting Liberals so much as it is the Conservatives (and most people) staying home. In by-elections, turnout is generally lower. And when turnout is generally lower, the voters generally skew older, with younger voters tuning out.

Guys. The turnout in this by-election was half that of 2011. Nobody took anyone else's votes. People just stayed home.

Except the Manitoba Liberals, eh?

Riding/party / 2013 / 2011

Toronto Centre
Liberal / 17,081 / 22 832

NDP / 12,643 / 16 818

Conservative / 3,024 / 12 604

Green Party / 1,027 / 2 796

Bourassa

Liberal / 8,767 / 15 550

NDP / 5,716 / 12 270

Bloc Québécois / 2,387 / 6 105

Conservative / 852 / 3 354

Green Party / 368 / 613

Brandon--Souris

Conservative / 12,205 / 22 386

Liberal / 11,814 / 1 882

NDP / 2,037 / 8 845

Green Party / 1,354 / 2 012

Provencher

Conservative / 13,021 / 27 820

Liberal / 6,706 / 2 645

NDP / 1,837 / 7 051

Green Party / 849 / 1 164

 

janfromthebruce

In TorCen the Conservative vote went way down and thus in a 2 party race, in which what ended up happening in TorCen, getting 37% of the vote was not good enough. In 2011 election, Cons took approx 23% of the vote, which in this byelection bled to the libs. So look and compare:

2011 result: Lib 41.01, NDP 30.21, Con 22.64, Green 5.02

Pundits' Guide ‏@punditsguide 2m

#TorCen #byelxn41 (268/268): #lpc 17,081 (49.1%) | #ndp 12,643 (36.4%) | #cpc 3,024 (8.7%) | #gpc 1,027 (3.0%) | oth 1,000 (2.9%) <-- FINAL!

It's quite true that we increased our vote share but we need to shake more progressive votes from the Liberals to win as they con't to shift to the right without letting their progressive supporters see their shift in positioning.

It's also why Trudeau is not talking about policy or this positioning but pretending all this hope and stuff so you don't see that the corporate rises in red down as blue declines. Classic really and reminds of 1993.

nicky

Unfortunately I think The Liberals have the bragging rights from last night. Their vote increased in every riding, massively in Manitoba and by about 7% in each of the other ridings. Mercifully Team Justin did not get Bandon-Souris or they would have been better able to present themselves as the sole alternative.

Although the Cons mainatined their seats they lost ground in every riding, losing more than half their % in Bourassa and TC and suffered huge reductions in Manitoba.

The Greens are flat. The Bloq down 3% which is good for th NDP because it indicates no Bloq resurgence.

I am disapponted but not too surprised at the NDP showing. We got squeezed badly in Manitoba.

One bright spots is Bourassa where we almost maintained our percentage from 2011, down from 32.3 to 31.4%. We can claim that the Orange wave continues from 2011, even if the Liberals aare making modest gains.

In TC we are up from 30.4 to 36.4. The Liberals seem to have profited from the Con collapse and got 49.1%, up 7.1.

Linda announced she will run again on the new boundaries in 2015. The transposition had the Liberals ahead by about 2% on the new boundaries and I expect they have a similar small lead on the by-election results. i would expect Freeland to run in whichever riding includes Rosedale so Linda will not have to face an incumbent and should have excellent prospects.

NorthReport

These were by-elections, particularly avaialble for a big protest vote because it was not going to bring down the government, which often happens in by-elections.

Never mind all the MSP and Liberal talking points, under the above circumstances the Harper-led Conservatives did fine last nite.  

And also remember these 4 seats were Lib and Con strongholds. Nothing changed last nite.

Although the Senate scandal might have impacted a bit on the Conservative vote, by the time the next federal election rollls around it will be probably ancient history.

 

NorthReport

No wonder Canadians are turned off politics with all the nonsense out there in the msp about these by-election results.

Here's one article however that does seem to somewhat make a bit of sense.

Byelection games — Trudeau wins without winning anything, Harper loses without losing

Here’s the short version of the four federal byelections held Monday: Justin Trudeau’s Liberals held onto their two seats, and are thus being hailed as a party on the rise. Stephen Harper’s Conservatives also held onto their two seats and are thus being dismissed as a party in big trouble.

Mr. Trudeau, having failed to win any extra seats, has been confirmed as an electoral force to reckon with. Mr. Harper, having held onto two seats in an intensely competitive election held in the midst of a government scandal, is having both his leadership and his future questioned.

That’s the great thing about byelections. No one really thinks they mean a lot (a fact for which history has offered ample evidence), but everyone gets to express an opinion anyway.

In this case, Mr. Harper had already been measured for the loserhood suit well in advance. No one thought the Conservatives would increase their seat count — the chances of them stealing either of the Liberal seats in Montreal and Toronto were rated as zilch. Just hanging onto the two seats they already held, despite the pounding they’ve been taking for months over Mike Duffy and the Senate debacle, was judged the best that could be hoped for. Yet, despite managing that, they’re still rated the losers. Because … well, just because.

Mr. Trudeau, on the other hand, couldn’t lose unless he actually bobbled away one of the two Liberal seats. The New Democrats put on a valiant push to bring that about, especially in Toronto Centre, but the Liberals managed to hang on in both cases. Mr. Trudeau thus accomplished exactly as much as Mr. Harper, with none of the baggage the Tories had to bear, but is being hailed nonetheless. Why? Well, in this case the reason is a little clearer. Lots of people who don’t like Mr. Harper really want Mr. Trudeau to emerge as a dynamic challenger, and are eager to find a way to suggest he’s done so if at all possible. There was a similar hope for Michael Ignatieff (even here at the National Post we were cheering for some good stiff competition) but it never developed. The yearning for Justin to fill the bill is that much greater as a result.

 

 


http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/11/26/kelly-mcparland-byelectio...

socialdemocrati...

Wilf Day wrote:

Riding/party / 2013 / 2011

Toronto Centre
Liberal / 17,081 / 22 832

NDP / 12,643 / 16 818

Conservative / 3,024 / 12 604

Green Party / 1,027 / 2 796

Bourassa

Liberal / 8,767 / 15 550

NDP / 5,716 / 12 270

Bloc Québécois / 2,387 / 6 105

Conservative / 852 / 3 354

Green Party / 368 / 613

No seats changed hands.

Looking at the numbers...

In Bourassa, the NDP got around 50% of their 2011 vote total. Liberals, just a bit more than 50%. (Conservatives underperformed.)

In Toronto Center, the NDP got around 75% of their 2011 vote total. So did the Liberals. (BQ underperformed.)

The main difference between 2011 and last night was voter turnout. When you control for voter turnout, there has been virtually zero shift between the parties.

The orange wave holds on.

NorthReport

Gotta love this headline with the word "reclaims" in it this morning and of course the bullshit continues to fly all over the place. Laughing

Bourassa byelection results 2013: Emmanuel Dubourg reclaims Montreal riding for Liberals

 

 

NorthReport

Not a bad analysis.

What the by-election results mean for the Tories, Liberals and NDP

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/what-the-by-election-result...

 

Policywonk

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

Wilf Day wrote:

Riding/party / 2013 / 2011

Toronto Centre
Liberal / 17,081 / 22 832

NDP / 12,643 / 16 818

Conservative / 3,024 / 12 604

Green Party / 1,027 / 2 796

Bourassa

Liberal / 8,767 / 15 550

NDP / 5,716 / 12 270

Bloc Québécois / 2,387 / 6 105

Conservative / 852 / 3 354

Green Party / 368 / 613

No seats changed hands.

Looking at the numbers...

In Bourassa, the NDP got around 50% of their 2011 vote total. Liberals, just a bit more than 50%. (Conservatives underperformed.)

In Toronto Center, the NDP got around 75% of their 2011 vote total. So did the Liberals. (BQ underperformed.)

The main difference between 2011 and last night was voter turnout. When you control for voter turnout, there has been virtually zero shift between the parties.

The orange wave holds on.

I think you've mixed up the BQ and the Conservatives. Of course the BQ underperformed in TC, they weren't on the ballot!

Brachina
NorthReport

The poor CBC. They come across as so desperate. It often seems as if the world is passing them by. First the by-elections where their beloved Liberals did not gain any seats, and now the hockey world is also saying goodbye to them.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/byelection-results-how-the-liberals-won-...

socialdemocrati...

Policywonk wrote:

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

Wilf Day wrote:

Riding/party / 2013 / 2011

Toronto Centre
Liberal / 17,081 / 22 832

NDP / 12,643 / 16 818

Conservative / 3,024 / 12 604

Green Party / 1,027 / 2 796

Bourassa

Liberal / 8,767 / 15 550

NDP / 5,716 / 12 270

Bloc Québécois / 2,387 / 6 105

Conservative / 852 / 3 354

Green Party / 368 / 613

No seats changed hands.

Looking at the numbers...

In Bourassa, the NDP got around 50% of their 2011 vote total. Liberals, just a bit more than 50%. (Conservatives underperformed.)

In Toronto Center, the NDP got around 75% of their 2011 vote total. So did the Liberals. (BQ underperformed.)

The main difference between 2011 and last night was voter turnout. When you control for voter turnout, there has been virtually zero shift between the parties.

The orange wave holds on.

I think you've mixed up the BQ and the Conservatives. Of course the BQ underperformed in TC, they weren't on the ballot!

LOL woops.

scott16

I am starting to believe we need to cut ties with the Selinger government. Maybe the NS NDP as well. The provincial governments are killing us. How would that happen if it were to happen?

socialdemocrati...

scott16 wrote:
I am starting to believe we need to cut ties with the Selinger government. Maybe the NS NDP as well. The provincial governments are killing us. How would that happen if it were to happen?

The Liberal Party of Quebec has been technically independent of the Federal Liberal Party for 50+ years. (The PLQ is especially a liability since it's a coalition of federalists from left to right, and could lurch in any policy direction depending which faction is ascendant.) But branding is a powerful thing. If two different parties are both called "Liberal", isn't it natural to assume it's the same people?

So it goes with the NDP. And these days, there are very few provincial governments that are popular enough to be an asset. To be in government is to have people generally hate you.

 

Winston

Yeah...it might be not such a bad thing we lost in BC. Now, if only we can keep Andrea from taking Ontario before 2015... :)

scott16 wrote:

I am starting to believe we need to cut ties with the Selinger government. Maybe the NS NDP as well. The provincial governments are killing us. How would that happen if it were to happen?

janfromthebruce

right b/c Jack always said he was running just for fun b/c being power might make things happen. Personally I'd like to see the NDP take Ontario before 2015.

Pierre C yr

Im not worried about anything west of Ontario. I think the libs will get a few close calls but few new seats. The further west you go the wins over liberals will just get larger. NDP will keep our seats in 2015 in Quebec and are set to make a breakthrough in Ontario assuming the liberals dont appeal to and get too many conservative votes. I dont see the tories bleeding anymore votes out west after this much time on the senate scandal. Short of a new scandal they've bottomed out. 

And if anyone needs to worry about provincial legacy with all the brouhaha on the Manitoba NDP and the backlash on the sales tax its the liberals in Ontario.

After Nova Scotia and Manitoba and BC however I would definitely call on the NDP to stop looking at sales taxes as an option to raise revenue. I supported the tax before as it moderated prices but you cant let this kind of political reality run your taxing policy. Mulcair needs to say he will never raise the HST. We'll just have to tax elsewhere such as investment income and corporate taxes. 

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
The open cheerleading for the Liberals among the media is, as always, quite nauseating.

Add the equally nauseating claim that the Liberals lost Brandon-Souris because the Greens and the NDP "split the vote."

NorthReport

Nothing changed whatsoever in these recent by-elections, except for the fact that Linda McQuaig said that she will continue to run for the NDP which is huge in the scheme of things.

Mulcair is one lucky guy today and this augers well for the NDP's chances in the next federal election.

Stockholm

oops

socialdemocrati...

janfromthebruce wrote:

right b/c Jack always said he was running just for fun b/c being power might make things happen. Personally I'd like to see the NDP take Ontario before 2015.

I have mixed feelings on this too. But in a lot of ways, Ontario is having a very special moment. Conservatives have effectively abandoned any effort at negotiation, meaning that the Liberals need the NDP to stay in power. It's led to the first wealth tax in the country in a generation. There's real talk about some kind of economic stimulus (let's hope), instead of more austerity. Considering we are less than 2 years out from a federal election, this might not be a bad status quo for Ontario in the meantime.

NorthReport

Now here however is utter bullshit  and attempted manipulation at its finest.

John Ivison: Conservatives feeling they can win next election, if the NDP holds strong

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/11/26/john-ivison-conservatives...

socialdemocrati...

Read between the lines. The Liberals are high on their biggest peak in 10 years, but they're still begging the NDP to go away. They are baffled and frustrated.

How can the NDP hang on without Jack Layton? How can the NDP hang on against Justin Trudeau? How is the NDP hanging on in Quebec? Why are there so many safe NDP seats in the ROC? The fact is that the NDP's base of support is firm, and at a minimum, within a few points of their 2011 record-setting election.

Too many voters want real change. You can't convince them to give that up. You'd have an easier time convincing Conservatives to vote Liberal to stop real change.

Steve_Shutt Steve_Shutt's picture

(double post)

Steve_Shutt Steve_Shutt's picture

(ooops, triple post) 

Steve_Shutt Steve_Shutt's picture

So our by-election takeaways for 2015 break down to this (note these are not my thoughts on what IS the case but what the different parties will conclude from the recent events):

Liberals -  Happy days are here again.  Keep putting JT out there.  His faults of immaturity and suspect political judgment will be counterbalanced by a resiliant Liberal brand for non-threatening progressive social policy with competent economic policy (the best memories of the Chretien years) with nostalgia for JT's father.  Fluffy platitudes may be the right response to the cynical politics of the Tories.  With a rebound in our traditional areas of support in Quebec and Ontario we restore the "natural" governing party to its rightful place after too many fase starts with unengaging leaders.

Conservatives - We can weather this.  The Duffy scandal hurt but the blow was hardly fatal.  We have a core that will stick with us and if the opposition continues to be divided we can play the incompetence of Trudeau against the "scary socialism" of the NDP and squeak through the middle - again.  Brandon-Souris was a one-off where local factors of the Liberal candidate's name and our botched nomination process conspired to make a safe seat look more vulnerable that it is.  The battle remains to win three-way fights in the suburban ridings that, with our rural base, can secure another majority for Harper.

NDP - Steady as she goes - and hold fast.  Yes we finished "second" in the two Manitoba ridings in 2011 but we were never in those races in 2011, now, nor 2015.  The two urban races that we were in, we did fine.  Solid increase in TorCentre (with a redistricing opportunity next time out) and no fall-back in Bourassa.  The Orange Wave has held up well without Bon Jack, though we need to be aware it will be tested by a Liberal party that could not possibly run as bad a campaign in 2015 that it ran in 2011.  If we are to make the leap in 2015 we have to continue to demonstate professionalism and discipline in Parlaiment and trust that come the election we present better than Trudeau on competence and substance while avoiding the the anticipated attacks of being "scary" socialists.  Know that the MSM will continue to promote the inevitability of a Harper win and a Trudeau resurgance - just as they didn't see the Orange Wave in 2011.  While in 2011 the shift to us was seen as a response to Jack's personal popularity (which it certainly was, in part) this time the NDP breakthrough in Ontario will need to be as the governing alternative which will only come about if the Tories are seen as unfit to be re-elected and Trudeau as too imature to be handed the keys.  Like it or not we will not be the first choice of those not already onboard with us but can become the next, best option if the Tory attacks on him (not ready) start to be confirmed in the harsh light of an election campaign.

 

terrytowel

BREAKING Linda may seek the nomination in Trinity Spadina when Olivia Chow resigns if she runs for Mayor in February.

NorthReport

I don't much know who he is, or where he comes from, but I agree with him here.

Don’t read too much into byelection results

http://www.torontosun.com/2013/11/26/dont-read-too-much-into-byelection-...

socialdemocrati...

BREAKING completely unsubstantiated rumor that we won't be able to confirm for several months

Aristotleded24

Another trivia bit about Brandon-Souris. Before 2006, the Liberals generally finished well ahead of the NDP. The one exception was the last time they had a by-election after Walter Dinsdale died, in 1982. The NDP took second in that campaign, but fell back behind the Liberals afterwards.

bekayne

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Another trivia bit about Brandon-Souris. Before 2006, the Liberals generally finished well ahead of the NDP. The one exception was the last time they had a by-election after Walter Dinsdale died, in 1982. The NDP took second in that campaign, but fell back behind the Liberals afterwards.

Though both were so far behind that the race for 2nd was like two bald men fighting over a comb

terrytowel

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

BREAKING completely unsubstantiated rumor that we won't be able to confirm for several months

Not according to Susan Delacourt of the Toronto Star. She asked Thomas Mulcair this AM about Linda's future. Mulcair has said he has high hopes for Linda to run in the new riding of Spadina—Fort York. Which happens to be part of Olivia Chow riding pre-redistribution.

Trinty-Spadina is being split between the new Spadina—Fort York and University-Rosedale.

So if Olivia Chow does indeed run for Mayor of TO, Mulcair is already eyeing Linda to run in the Trinity-Spadina by-election, pre-redistribution.

Susan Delacourt said all this on CTV Power Play today.

If you have a dispute about Susan spreading a "completely unsubstantiated rumor" (your words) I suggest you send Susan a message via twitter. Her twitter handle is below.

http://twitter.com/SusanDelacourt

Policywonk

terrytowel wrote:

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

BREAKING completely unsubstantiated rumor that we won't be able to confirm for several months

Not according to Susan Delacourt of the Toronto Star. She asked Thomas Mulcair this AM about Linda's future. Mulcair has said he has high hopes for Linda to run in the new riding of Spadina—Fort York. Which happens to be part of Olivia Chow riding pre-redistribution.

Trinty-Spadina is being split between the new Spadina—Fort York and University-Rosedale.

So if Olivia Chow does indeed run for Mayor of TO, Mulcair is already eyeing Linda to run in the Trinity-Spadina by-election, pre-redistribution.

Susan Delacourt said all this on CTV Power Play today.

If you have a dispute about Susan spreading a "completely unsubstantiated rumor" (your words) I suggest you send Susan a message via twitter. Her twitter handle is below.

http://twitter.com/SusanDelacourt

That's Tom. What has Linda said besides she wants to play a role in 2015? Anyone can say Linda may run in Trinity-Spadina without her or Tom saying anything, which is not the same as Tom saying he has high hopes for her to run in Spadina-Fort York. Hardly warrants a declaration of "breaking news" either way.

terrytowel

"Take Monday's results and superpose it on Fort York. Guess what? Linda McQuaig, you haven't heard the last from her. She'll be in the House of Commons after the next election," Thomas Mulcair told reporters in Ottawa.

Or maybe even sooner, if Olivia Chow does indeed resign her seat in February. Speculation is already rampant online.

We need Linda in the House of Commons NOW. Which makes Linda a natural to run in Trinity-Spadina in a by-election.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/new-mps-welcomed-by-caucus-members-on-pa...

bekayne

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/11/27/andrew-coyne-theres-no-spinning-it-the-conservatives-were-spanked-in-mondays-byelections/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

No, the Senate scandal is not likely to be at the top of most voters’ minds two years from now. But I rather doubt the Senate scandal, on its own, is what has driven one in four Tory voters to abandon the party: As I say, the polls have been showing the same thing for some time. It’s everything that went before it, and everything that’s happened since.

It’s the general impression that we are being governed by a gang of thugs — secretive, high-handed, unprincipled gusting to unethical, and openly contemptuous of such quaint notions as democratic accountability — an impression that grows more baked in each time the Prime Minister dodges a question in Parliament, or worse, sends in the clownish Paul Calandra to answer in his place.

 

DLivings

Steve_Shutt wrote:

So our by-election takeaways for 2015 break down to this (note these are not my thoughts on what IS the case but what the different parties will conclude from the recent events):

here

Makes sense to me.

Ippurigakko

since 9 byelections (2012 to present)

LIB 79,412 (31.9% = +13%)
NDP 68,284 (27.4% = -3.2%)
CON 67,887 (27.3% = -12.3%)
GRN 27,348 (11.0% = +7.1%)
BQ 2,387 (1.0% = -5.0%)
OTH 3,318 (1.3% = +0.3%)
total 249,118
ELIGIBLE 663,201 (voter turnout 37.6% = -23.4%)

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