Federal polling - started March 2, 2011

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Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

The polls next week - reflecting the Speaker's rulings against the Conservatives this week - should bring the Cons down a bit.

Sean in Ottawa

Survey was taken March 8-9--

Canadians seem to be just fine with Harper putting the boots to democracy in Canada it seems.

 

bekayne

Boom Boom wrote:

The polls next week - reflecting the Speaker's rulings against the Conservatives this week - should bring the Cons down a bit.

If people don't pay attention to the news & only watch the negative ads, their numbers will go up

Lens Solution

Hopefully the Cons will come down by more than just a bit.

Sean in Ottawa

My latest tweet:

@davidakin How do the Cons stay at 39%? Is a hypnotist doing the polling?

Lens Solution

The above polling firm isn't one of the mainstream polling firms though.  It will be more significant when we get a poll from one of the bigger pollsters.

Sean in Ottawa

My latest RT

kinsellawarren Warren Kinsella
Jesus "@davidakin: New poll: #CPC 39 #LPC 23 #NDP 17 Survey: Mar 8-9 Online. 1,023 sample. Details: http://bit.ly/gKBSSu #cdnpoli"

Kinsella nails it in a word-- (first time I ever retweeted him btw)

 

Sean in Ottawa

crap double post and I only pressed the once.

Sean in Ottawa

Lens Solution wrote:

The above polling firm isn't one of the mainstream polling firms though.  It will be more significant when we get a poll from one of the bigger pollsters.

Actually it is-- It is Angus Reid...

http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/

Lens Solution

Seems Angus Reid has merged with Vision Critical.  I hadn't heard that.

NorthReport

 

This AR poll is a disaster for the Ignatieff and the Liberals as the Cons are approaching doubling their support over the Libs.

Cons - 39%

NDP - 17%

Libs - 23%

 

ottawaobserver

It usually takes the really big news stories a few weeks to sink in, while the smaller ones never do. Thus, I would take it as a baseline.

Lens Solution

The Speaker's ruling against the Conservatives only started to make news last night and get into the newspapers today, so it will be interesting to see what the polls next week show.  I notice that even Conservative-leaning newspapers like The Ottawa Citizen today have headlines like "Speaker rules against Tories" on their front page.

Who knows whether or not it will make an impact.

NorthReport

Do you think average voters give a shit about Parliament - it's jobs and the economy that counts.

JKR

If jobs and the economy were all that counted, Paul Martin would still be PM.

NorthReport

I'd like to see Jack focus more and more time on jobs and the economy, seniors, education, and health care, and not spend much time on all this Parliament BS. Leave the sleazeball 'gotcha' politics to the Bobsey twins, Tweedledum Ignatieff and Tweedledee Harper.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Do you think average voters give a shit about Parliament - it's jobs and the economy that counts.

No, it's who puts out the most negative ads

NorthReport

The ads should be simple, and use ridicule a lot. I liked the boot ad. There's a time and place for everything, but my preference is for the NDP to primarily promote 3 or 4 simple positive messages, stick to them, and keep positive - smile, be assertive but pleasant when you are on TV, etc. I notice the Cons behaviour when they are asked a question in the House and they know the cameras are rolling. They sometimes speak with hushed voices - I'm sure they are coached in that. 

NorthReport

I suppose we'll get an EKOS poll soon telling us everything is all right at LPC headquarrters.  Laughing

Lens Solution

A new EKOS poll was just released a few minutes ago and was discussed on CBC.  It shows the NDP doing well in Quebec.

Lens Solution

Cons  35.2

Libs 27.8

NDP 14.9

Green 10.1

Bloc 8.8

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/03/10/pol-ekos-march10.html

Stockholm

Lens Solution wrote:

A new EKOS poll was just released a few minutes ago and was discussed on CBC.  It shows the NDP doing well in Quebec.

12.5% for the NDP is good by Ekos standards, but most other pollsters have much better numbers than that.

NorthReport

Strange, what a surprise poll, exclusive for the Liberal supporting CBC.  Laughing

Rob8305

NorthReport wrote:

Strange, what a surprise poll, exclusive for the Liberal supporting CBC.  Laughing

A 35-28 lead is one that could easily be erased in the campaign. If other polls show this kind of range and not a monster Con lead, I think now is an excellent time to go. Harper will only get stronger if we wait.

Centrist
Stockholm

BTW, the BC NDP went into the 2009 BC election campaign down 16% after the BC Liberals had spent a gazillion dollars on negative ads vilifying them...by election day that turned into just a 3% loss.

Lens Solution

Stockholm wrote:

Lens Solution wrote:

A new EKOS poll was just released a few minutes ago and was discussed on CBC.  It shows the NDP doing well in Quebec.

12.5% for the NDP is good by Ekos standards, but most other pollsters have much better numbers than that.

True.  Except for Ipsos-Reid which had the NDP at 6%!

NorthReport

As as most of us know, it is the Leger and CROP polls which are the main credible polling firms for Quebec.

Lens Solution

They're certainly more credible than Ipsos-Reid.

NorthReport

We know the game well debater.

EKOS tend to show Libs doing better than any other pollster, and Ipsos Reid tend to show the Cons doing better than any other pollster, and CROP and Leger Marketing seem to be quite reliable about Quebec polling.

KenS

You've been called on harrasing LS before.

Since you are doing it again, I have flagged as offensive for personal attack.

Anonymouse

p.11 of the EKOS crosstabs shows the Liberals being crushed by Conservatives and NDP among the second choice of undecideds. There is also a lot of vote-parking with the Greens all over this poll.

bekayne

Anonymouse wrote:

p.11 of the EKOS crosstabs shows the Liberals being crushed by Conservatives and NDP among the second choice of undecideds. There is also a lot of vote-parking with the Greens all over this poll.

Isn't that Other (3.1%), rather than Undecided?

NorthReport

Liberal supporters are getting quite discouraged, and understandably so. 

Quote:
Ignatieff and Liberals Can't Get a Break

 

Yet, the poll states "the first nine weeks of the year have been good for both Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper and NDP leader Jack Layton. Harper's approval increased by six points to 32 per cent and Layton's increased nine points, to 34 per cent. Meanwhile, Ignatieff scored just 14 per cent support. Fully 55 per cent of respondents disapprove of Ignatieff's leadership -- a number that increased by eight points in the first nine weeks of 2011. Ignatieff has the worst momentum of the three main party leaders.

The question that now will be asked is whether Ignatieff is holding back his party. Clearly, with a possible spring election in the offing, it is the worst possible time for Liberals to engage in such a discussion.

 

http://communities.canada.com/vancouversun/blogs/powerplay/archive/2011/03/10/ignatieff-and-liberals-can-t-get-a-break.aspx[/quote]

Frmrsldr

JKR wrote:

I think the obsession with polls is counterproductive. Here's why:

Partisan politics can be seen as a race between political parties. Party politics is akin to athletics where each party can be viewed as being a 100m racer. In racing, the racer's goal is to win races. In politics, the goal of a  party is to win elections. In order to win races, a racers has to be faster then their competition.  In order to win elections, a political parties has to have more popular policies then their competition.

So the goal of a racer ultimately not to win races but to run as fast as possible. Winning races is the biproduct of being fast. Running speed is the independent variable. Winning elections is the dependent variable.

Following this logic, the goal of a party is ultimately not to win elections but to have as popular policies as possible as winning elections is the biproduct of having popular policies. Popularity of policies is the independent variable. Winning elections is the dependent variable.

Spending too much time concentrating on party popularity polls is akin to a runner concentrating too much on handicapping their position vis a vis other racers. Spending too much time concentrating on the other runners takes away from the runners valuable training time and reduces the runners ability to increase their speed. In turn, spending too much time concentrating on the popularity of the other parties takes away from the party valuable time that could be spent on developing better policies. A runners top priority should be training to become faster as a parties top priority should be creating popular policies because the party with the most popular policies wins elections as the runner with the highest speed wins races.

Just as speed is the goal of a runner, popular policy should be the goal of political parties. Just as handicapping the race is a waste of time for the runner, concentrating on party polls is a waste of time for political parties.

In racing, racers use the stop watch primarily to track their own speed but in partisan politics, polls are not sed primarily to guage the populatiy of policies but mostly to guage the realtive popularity of the parties. This is akin to a racer not using a stop watch to guage their own speed. Instead of polling the public to determine the realtive popularity of the parties, polls should concentrate primarily on determining the relative popularity of political policies.

There is an opportunity cost to being obsessed with polls. Instead of using energy to establish popular policies, energy is wasted obsessing on fretting about the latest weekly poll.

So why is their such a dearth of issue based polling and issue based politics and such an excessive amount of party popularity polls and horse race politics?

Because unfortunately, the analogy of the racer is flawed.

Currently, Canadian federal politics is all about the popularity of the leaders of the two traditional parties.

Herr Harper is seen as "Strong Leader" by enough voters who voted in the last two elections to win the Cons two minority governments. Harper's bullying and attack ads shore up the "Strong Leader" perception from this same electoral group.

The Liberals have no discernable political policies and Liberal leader Iggy is seen as a flop.

The NDP does have discernable political policies, they are good ones and are popular with a noticeable number of people. Jack Layton is also generally the most liked and trusted of the party leaders.

Yet, because the NDP is not one of the two traditional parties, its numbers aren't as high as the Cons or Libs.

NorthReport

 

 

NorthReport

Frmrsldr

The polling results posted above is the most recent poll from Nanos Reasearch, Canada's most accurate pollster, which shows the NDP doing reasonably well. What I like in particular is the polling trend. It looks like the NDP and the Liberals may be about to meet. And another poll came out today show them within 6% of each other.

Frmrsldr

@NorthReport

Right on!

It shows that the NDP having clear and popular political policies is causing them to gain on the Liberals, who are lacking in both clear and popular political policies and a popular leader.

I would love to see the day the NDP becomes the Official Opposition.

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

That would be nice.

I'd prefer to see the day when they become government.

Anonymouse

bekayne wrote:

Anonymouse wrote:

p.11 of the EKOS crosstabs shows the Liberals being crushed by Conservatives and NDP among the second choice of undecideds. There is also a lot of vote-parking with the Greens all over this poll.

Isn't that Other (3.1%), rather than Undecided?

 

Nope. It is the last row of the table and according to the first page of the survey >14% of all those surveyed are undecided or ineligible. These are the most fluid of the voters out there, so whomever has their ear prolly has the best chance of gaining some traction in the next election.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

An NDP opposition would be beautiful.

Unfortunately,it would come with the expense of a Conservative majority.

2 feet forward and ten feet back.

KenS

The NDP being in opposition is long odds. For that to happen, there have to be any number of other changes going on. Only one of the possible outcomes would have the Cons in a majority... and its not the most likely [of these unlikely oucomes].

I think what you are unwittingly expressing is the bad habit lefties have of in practice depending on the Liberals to provide the backbone of opposition. However much the NDP may be preferred, there is a de facto assumption that without the Liberals we are lost. "If the Liberals are really weak, we're screwed." Which means of course that we wouldnt want to do anything that would threaten the Liberals position.

KenS

For example:

Cons    145

NDP       58

BQ        55

Libs      50

 

That isnt a likely outcome. But it isnt out of the realm of possibility that the NDP would get that many seats.

And the relevant question here is, assuming they did get enough seats to be the official opposition, how likely is it that the Conservatives would at the same time get a majority. And the answer is, not very likely.

For one thing, the NDP is closest to taking Conservative seats- many more than being close to taking Liberal seats. So if the NDP surged that much, there is no way that the Cons could take enough Liberal seats to compensate for losing a lot of seats to the NDP and BQ.

Yet a lot of people really think that NDP gain ipso facto translates primarily into Liberal pain.

NorthReport

So would I, Malcolm. The NDP is going to favourably surprise a lot of their supporters this coming election. 

Malcolm wrote:

That would be nice.

I'd prefer to see the day when they become government.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Best case scenario,all the numbers the Liberals are losing the NDP gain.

Then we have another Tory minority but with an NDP led opposition.

As the official opposition the NDP would be given the time and seriousness to sell their policies to a public that doesn't know anything about the NDP besides the labels the Cons have branded them in attack ads and rhetoric.

But it is because the Liberals like to sit on the fence and flirt with the right,alot of angry and fed up Liberal supporters would be more inclined to take their chances with the Cons than with the NDP.

I never understood,and I never will, how the populous can side and support a party that works tirelessly AGAINST thier best interests.

Too many gullible people who are incapable of critical thought who believe everything they read and hear in the media..Particularly MSM and talk radio.

I don't want to call 40% of the population stupid but it's safe to say that about half that 40% know NOTHING about our political system,what the issues REALLY are and what the policies really mean to all us dull normals.

 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I wish the damned election would start already, all this speculation is ridiculous, but it happens every time. As long as folks are speculating the outcomes, I'll do one as well:

Cons 140

Libs    80

BQ  55

NDP  33

...and let's see who comes closest when the results are in!  Maybe babble should have a speculation contest on the election.

KenS

I wasnt speculating on outcome BB. I was illustrating a point.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

But there has been speculation... even in thread titles, such as "the NDP will become the Official Opposition", for one.

KenS

That isnt speculation, its tireless assertion of a wish.

Anonymouse

The Conservatives are "surging" a lot more than the NDP. While the breakdown in local races will count for a lot, the NDP may have a tough time catching up to the Conservatives in a lot of key seats. The Conservatives biggest surge is coming in the prairies. Given that the NDP holds 0 seats in Saskatchewan and is competitive in most of them, I hope they go extremely negative on the Conservatives in their ad campaign there. It is time to put the heat to the Conservatives on the prairies and in Saskatchewan in particular.

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