Should the NDP and Green Party merge? This is a fascinating idea to consider, backed up in this article by analysis from 338Canada showing the ‘Green Democrats’ would hold the balance of power in a minority government after the next election. Here are quotes from the article, which goes on to give regional breakdowns:
A Green-NDP merger? It could be a big hit.
Here is an interesting exercise of politics-fiction. What if the NDP and Green Party decided that they have more in common than they have differences? With the recent success of the PC and Wildrose merger in Alberta, would it be so unreasonable to imagine what a Green Party-NDP merger could look like?
Let’s call them the Green Democrats.
I entered the numbers in the 338 electoral model and made the following hypotheses:
- Most of the current NDP and Green support would remain with the Green Democrats
- The Green Democrats would have a higher appeal among younger, urban and educated demographics (which is, statistically at least, already the case for the GPC and NDP)
- Neither Elizabeth May nor Jagmeet Singh would lead the new party.
Here are the results.
Popular Vote Projection
According to current data and with the hypotheses formulated above, the hypothetical Green Democrats would get an average support just under 27 per cent (roughly the combined support of the GPC and NDP). The confidence intervals range from roughly 23 per cent to 31 per cent of support.
The Green Democrats would still likely fall in third place behind the Conservatives and Liberals, but the race at the top would become far more competitive.
With this level of support, how would this theoretical new party fare in the seat projection? This is where it gets interesting. Here are the numbers.
By running the 338 electoral model with the numbers above, the Green Democrats would win an average of 59 seats, more than twice the current combined seat projections for the NDP and GPC.
What is perhaps more striking is that neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals stand at an average above the 170-seat threshold for a majority at the House of Commons. In fact, more than 80 per cent of all 250,000 simulations run by the model resulted in a minority government where the Green Democrats hold the balance of power.
Here is the seat projection probability density for the Green Democrats. Its average stands at 58.6 seats, but a total of 70 or even 80 seats would not be out of reach according to current data.