Initial post-election polling thread

281 posts / 0 new
Last post
josh
Initial post-election polling thread
Unionist

From the link:

Quote:
74 per cent approve of Trudeau’s gender-balanced cabinet, with 22 per cent disapproving and 4 per cent unsure. “That’s what he said he was going to do and there is a big premium these days on doing what you say you’re going to do,” Bozinoff said.

NDP cheerleaders should pay attention to this.

And to everything else.

 

Debater

Good to see 74% support Trudeau's gender-balanced cabinet.

But who are the 22% who disapprove of it?

What's the matter with them?  Are they Conservatives?

Debater

Trudeau has brought the Federal Cabinet closer to parity than anyone else in Canadian history.

Can it be improved further in the years ahead?  Sure.  Eg. We need to have the first female Finance Minister some day.

But considering that it was totally male-dominated when Trudeau arrived, this is a monumental change.

It not only has more women than ever before, but a record number of racial minorities.

Plus an openly-gay cabinet minister (Scott Brison).  Something we NEVER saw under Harper.  Not ONE gay person was allowed to be officially out in the Harper Regime.  Not ONE.

Debater

EKOS numbers today back up what Forum is saying -- many NDPers are happy with the results of the 2015 Election:

The EKOS poll: Why many New Democrats are content with a Liberal government

https://ipolitics.ca/2015/11/11/the-ekos-poll-why-many-new-democrats-are...

quizzical

they believe in "merit" (meaning all men) based appointments instead of parity?

or like me don't believe it's, as of yet,  true parity?

or maybe they think there should be more women?

terrytowel

Nanos Numbers this week for perferred Prime Minister

Trudeau - 46.6%

Harper - 21.8%

Mulcair - 13.8%

https://twitter.com/niknanos/status/664157568063946752

quizzical

Debater wrote:
Trudeau has brought the Federal Cabinet closer to parity than anyone else in Canadian history.

true. sad it's something to be bragged about.

Quote:
Can it be improved further in the years ahead?  Sure.  Eg. We need to have the first female Finance Minister some day.

too many Jim Prentice's around.

Quote:
But considering that it was totally male-dominated when Trudeau arrived, this is a monumental change.

to be fair we don't know this yet. they can be there with no real voice. at least 5 of the women seem to be in jr positions and the ones who did get higher profile positions aren't apparent of in the media yet.

I

Quote:
t not only has more women than ever before, but a record number of racial minorities.

select racial mnorities

Quote:
Plus an openly-gay cabinet minister (Scott Brison).  Something we NEVER saw under Harper.  Not ONE gay person was allowed to be officially out in the Harper Regime.  Not ONE.

not even Harper himself? ;)

his bio was interesting. just read it. i never make distinctions about someone's suitability or status based on their sexuality preferences. hopefully one day no one will. i did see he's a part of the Trilateral Commission though.

terrytowel

There were TWO gay ministers in Harper's cabinet but they were not openly out.

quizzical

only 2?

terrytowel

From my calculations yes, and both of them are not of the same sex.

pookie

There were at least two gay men in Harper's cabinet.

pookie

There were at least two gay men in Harper's cabinet.

Unionist

Debater wrote:

Trudeau has brought the Federal Cabinet closer to parity than anyone else in Canadian history.

Except for Québec, of course - we had parity in 2007.

Quote:
Eg. We need to have the first female Finance Minister some day.

Except for Québec, of course. Monique Gagnon-Tremblay was named Finance Minister in 1993. And Pauline Marois was named Finance Minister in 1995, and Finance Minister and Deputy Premier in 2001.

Quote:
But considering that it was totally male-dominated when Trudeau arrived, this is a monumental change.

I agree. But you know, I think Trudeau promising gender parity was even more important than achieving it. Because it tells the whole society that it matters. It tells women, girls, in every walk of life, that this actually matters. It tells men and boys that it matters.

I thought it was a master stroke. Attempts to minimize it miss the point.

 

terrytowel

pookie wrote:

There were at least two gay men in Harper's cabinet.

In your dreams, and I say that as a gay man who has pretty good gaydar

Unionist

terrytowel wrote:

pookie wrote:

There were at least two gay men in Harper's cabinet.

In your dreams, and I say that as a gay man who has pretty good gaydar

So... you're saying... that... Harper isn't... ??

brookmere

quizzical wrote:
Quote:
but a record number of racial minorities.

select racial minorities

Pretty much the same select racial minorities as we've seen in provincial NDP governments and for the same reason - cabinet appointments for any party reflect their voter base and membership.

 

DaveW

Debater wrote:

Trudeau has brought the Federal Cabinet closer to parity than anyone else in Canadian history.

Can it be improved further in the years ahead?  Sure.  Eg. We need to have the first female Finance Minister some day.

But considering that it was totally male-dominated when Trudeau arrived, this is a monumental change.

It not only has more women than ever before, but a record number of racial minorities.

Plus an openly-gay cabinet minister (Scott Brison).  Something we NEVER saw under Harper.  Not ONE gay person was allowed to be officially out in the Harper Regime.  Not ONE.

 

honestly, Debater:

have you EVER posted anything here that is not a full-throated endorsement of the Liberal Party of Canada and its positions?

only question in my mind, political operative or strictly pro bono?

Debater

terrytowel wrote:

There were TWO gay ministers in Harper's cabinet but they were not openly out.

Correct.

The male minister has departed and the female minister (now an ordinary MP) is still in the CPC caucus.

So the question remains, why are people afraid to come out in the CPC?

There are 6 openly-gay MPs in the new 2015 Parliament -> 4 Liberals & 2 NDPers.

Still not one openly-gay CPC MP.

The CPC is at odds with the Liberals & NDP, who both have had openly-gay MPs for years now.

And I think even the UK Tory party has a couple of openly-gay MPs, yes?

quizzical

Unionist wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

pookie wrote:

There were at least two gay men in Harper's cabinet.

In your dreams, and I say that as a gay man who has pretty good gaydar

So... you're saying... that... Harper isn't... ??

maybe bi?

Debater

Well, if you want to get into this, there are rumours about Harper (and Laureen) and their entire marriage.

They were reportedly separated for a period of time between 2011-2013.

This was a heavy rumour in the Ottawa area, and it was coming from political insiders -- it was just something that someone made up on the Internet for fun.

So I guess we can wait & see what happens with the Harper marriage in the years ahead now that they are on their way out of politics (although Harper is an MP still).

terrytowel

Debater wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

There were TWO gay ministers in Harper's cabinet but they were not openly out.

Correct.

The male minister has departed and the female minister (now an ordinary MP) is still in the CPC caucus.

Debater has this 100% correct.

terrytowel

BTW one of Stephen Harper biographers is gay as well. He is out, but doesn't shout it out from the rooftops.

Who is it? You'll have to figure that one out, whoever gets it right I will confirm.

Again I am NOT outing this person, as he had dedicated his Harper book to his male partner/husband as "The Love of his Life"

Debater

Paul Wells & John Ibbitson both wrote biographies of Harper, so I would assume it is one of them.

Lawrence Martin also wrote a book on Harper, but perhaps it isn't considered a biography in the same way as the books by Wells & Ibbitson.  "Harperland - The Politics of Control", is more a book on the Harper Government itself, rather than a traditional biography like the ones by Ibbitson & Wells.

Debater

It appears to be John Ibbitson.

He reveals he is gay in this 2006 piece:

http://rrj.ca/being-john-ibbitson/

quizzical

oh and she's only been around since 2011

terrytowel

Debater gets the Gold Star. It was really sweet how Ibbitson dedicated the Harper book to "The Love of my Life, Grant" his partner. Very sweet.

Debater

What is not sweet is the fact that Ibbitson is a Harper supporter. Yell

I've never understood why a gay person would want to vote for the CPC.  There is still not one person who feels comfortable officially coming out in the year 2015 in the CPC.

Scott Brison left OVER A DECADE ago now, and still nothing has changed in that party.

Even in the new Parliament, the only openly-gay MPs are 4 Liberals & 2 NDPers.  No CPCers:

Liberals

1. Seamus O'Regan (NFLD)

2. Randy Boissonneault (Edmonton)

3. Rob Oliphant (Don Valley)

4.  Scott Brison (NS)

NDP

1. Randall Garrison (BC)

2. Sheri Benson (SK)

---

http://www.dailyxtra.com/canada/news-and-ideas/news/four-openly-gay-lesb...

nicky

Let's not get too excited over this honeymoon poll.

Remember when the Ontario NDP were polling at 63% soon after Bob Rae's win.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

It'd be weird if the Liberals were in trouble in the polls at this point, given that they've only been in power for eight days.

Slumberjack

Give em time.  They're liberals after all.

Debater

I think everyone knows they are honeymoon numbers.

While those numbers won't stay that high for the Liberals, there's no guarantee that the NDP will bounce back unless it changes its attitude in the current leadership.

Even their announcement today of being the "Progressive Opposition" was a bit arrogant & over the top.

The Liberals can't take anything for granted in the next 4 years, but neither can the NDP.

nicky

So, Debater, who would you say is the "Progressive Opposition"? Perhaps Rhona Ambrose and the Conservatives?

Aristotleded24

nicky wrote:
So, Debater, who would you say is the "Progressive Opposition"?

Perhaps Elizabeth May?

jjuares

Yeah, the polling numbers are meaningless. After a few days I see little cracks already. The Liberals are now saying that they may not reopen all the veteran centres. Several people in the media are now saying that they explicitly promised to reopen them all.

Slumberjack

It's as people have been saying all along, Liberals will be Liberals in their promises, there's no getting around that.  Which helps to explain the urgency with having a budget update before the end of 2015.  Things are bound to be worse than the previous government had let on, which no one will deny as entirely possible from conservatives, and which, from the Liberal perspective, will lay the necessary groundwork for dismantling, plank by plank, the election platform upon which they stood.

Sean in Ottawa

Slumberjack wrote:

It's as people have been saying all along, Liberals will be Liberals in their promises, there's no getting around that.  Which helps to explain the urgency with having a budget update before the end of 2015.  Things are bound to be worse than the previous government had let on, which no one will deny as entirely possible from conservatives, and which, from the Liberal perspective, will lay the necessary groundwork for dismantling, plank by plank, the election platform upon which they stood.

Don't forget Bob Rae is a Liberal.

If he does nothing else, he will explain to them how stupid he was when he won in 1990 and did not bring in a statement to show what a mess Peterson had left.

This was the most serious political mistake he ever made and that is saying something given the social contract. He got to forever wear Peterson's deficit as his own. Now even if Rae did not remind the Liberals of this, the Ontario Liberals can remind them because they go the last laugh on that and never had to take credit for the deficit.

Now to be fair Rae was also hit with a recession, downloading from the federal government, suppression of spending due to the GST and horrific Free Trade adjustments. But a budget statement before any changes would have been able to show that all three were already in play when Rae took office.

I would have been shocked to see the Liberals in that context not do a statement.

But then again I was shocked that the NDP in Alberta repeated Rae's error. They will pay dearly for a generation in that province for this blunder. They will not get to pin the real outgoing deficit on the PC government and will get to wear it instead. It is a political necessity for any government taking office in difficult times to do this.

quizzical

what are you talking about Sean. ABers know exactly what kind of mess the PC's left, the Notley government never hid it.

Sean in Ottawa

quizzical wrote:

what are you talking about Sean. ABers know exactly what kind of mess the PC's left, the Notley government never hid it.

Four years from now it will be fuzzy and modified by millions of dollars of propaganda.

In a few years millions will be spent -- successfully -- convincing people that it was all the NDP government's fault.

When you take over a mandate it is wise to have a balance sheet.

And I was here in Ontario when Rae won. I drove to Toronto before their first budget and before ANY tax measures there were billboards up that said "Taxed off at Bob Rae" along the route.

Everyone knew how bad Peterson left the Ontario economy then. Only a few New Democrats remember any of that today. It is politically expedient to forget.

A budget statement leaves a historical marker that can always be pointed to.

One day people will point to all the gravy train days of the Conservatives and the austerity and trouble of the NDP. And there is no single document to point to. There could have been.

Debater

nicky wrote:

So, Debater, who would you say is the "Progressive Opposition"? Perhaps Rhona Ambrose and the Conservatives?

Well, I don't consider a Thatcher admirer to be a "Progressive Opposition", do you?

Debater

Slumberjack wrote:

It's as people have been saying all along, Liberals will be Liberals in their promises, there's no getting around that.  Which helps to explain the urgency with having a budget update before the end of 2015.  Things are bound to be worse than the previous government had let on, which no one will deny as entirely possible from conservatives, and which, from the Liberal perspective, will lay the necessary groundwork for dismantling, plank by plank, the election platform upon which they stood.

The Liberals cannot fix everything, and it's unreasonable to expect them to.

The Conservatives have left the cupbard bare with no surplus at all.  Scott Brison, the new Treasury Board President, was speaking about this yesterday.

But the Liberals have already done a lot of things that they promised to do already, even though they've only been in power a week.

-> They have removed the restrictions on scientists & civil servants

-> they have started a plan to bring in refugees

-> they have invivited the other leaders to the Pairs Climate Summit

-> Trudeau has already met with the Press Gallery in the Press Theatre and invited them to the 3rd Floor outside the Government Caucus room

Cody87

I'm a bit late, don't check 308 very often anymore, but Eric Grenier's analysis is surprised by the Liberal strength even considering it's a honeymoon poll.

Quote:
The poll gives the Liberals the support of 55% of Canadians, an enormous number that the Conservatives never managed in any poll throughout their tenure. My records only go back so far and are incomplete the earlier they go, but even back in the days of 2002 and 2003, when the Liberals faced a divided opposition and the coming Paul Martin juggernaut was poised to deliver Liberal rule for the rest of time, the party was only polling at around the 50% mark.

The Conservatives have dropped down by seven points to 25%, a number they were flirting with in the dark days of the Mike Duffy scandal. The New Democrats have also dropped by a similar amount, down to just 12%, a score that brings them back to the earliest days of Jack Layton.

The numbers in this poll are just astounding: 61% for the Liberals in British Columbia, 56% in Ontario, and 58% in Quebec (the Conservatives, remarkably, are holding firm in Alberta and the Prairies). The NDP takes the brunt of the hit in most parts of the country, down to just 11% in Quebec. All told, these numbers would likely deliver around 245 to 280 seats to the Liberals, with the Conservatives taking 55 to 90 and the NDP less than 10.

Sean in Ottawa

Again I have analysed polling participation many times. There is no surprise here.

I am not happy with the leadership of the NDP. I am not happy with the election result. I want to see significant changes in the NDP before I get interested again.I might consider that a good poll for the NDP might give a reason not to do the examination the party needs or the leadership change.

So.... If a pollster called me I likely would not pick up the phone or would refuse and not waste time on the survey.

Close to an election I would always participate.

What I am saying is the NDP support is low but NDP supporters are discouraged and may be extremely unmotivated to participate in a poll right now. They will stay that way until they see somethign happening in the rebuild if that is what they want or a new leader if that is what they are looking for.

Liberal supporters are motivated and eager to show their support. Why would they not be?

Then there is the thing about the Liberal promises -- they show a lot of possibility and they have not been broken yet. You can expect that supportt to be there until there is cause for concern with the Liberals -- not before a throne speech and budget.

Sean in Ottawa

mark_alfred wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Then there is the thing about the Liberal promises -- they show a lot of possibility and they have not been broken yet. You can expect that supportt to be there until there is cause for concern with the Liberals -- not before a throne speech and budget.

That's a really surprising thing, actually.  In the past, Liberal governments after 12 days in office have usually broken all their promises.  And yet so far, Trudeau hasn't.  Amazing.  How long they can keep it up?

Well before the first budget and before the throne speech? That would be a bit soon.

Sean in Ottawa

mark_alfred wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Then there is the thing about the Liberal promises -- they show a lot of possibility and they have not been broken yet. You can expect that supportt to be there until there is cause for concern with the Liberals -- not before a throne speech and budget.

That's a really surprising thing, actually.  In the past, Liberal governments after 12 days in office have usually broken all their promises.  And yet so far, Trudeau hasn't.  Amazing.  How long they can keep it up?

Well before the first budget and before the throne speech? That would be a bit soon. Hard to say what happens from here

mark_alfred

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Then there is the thing about the Liberal promises -- they show a lot of possibility and they have not been broken yet. You can expect that supportt to be there until there is cause for concern with the Liberals -- not before a throne speech and budget.

That's a really surprising thing, actually.  In the past, Liberal governments after 12 days in office have usually broken all their promises.  And yet so far, Trudeau hasn't.  Amazing.  How long can they keep it up?

Debater

mark_alfred wrote:

That's a really surprising thing, actually.  In the past, Liberal governments after 12 days in office have usually broken all their promises.  And yet so far, Trudeau hasn't.  Amazing.  How long can they keep it up?

Justin Trudeau is the most progressive PM you are going to see in Canada for a long time.

Rather than always hoping that you can find things to criticize him for, why don't you find some areas of common agreement?

If the Liberals & the NDP would stop fighting with each other all the time, maybe they could do a better job of challenging Conservative propaganda.

We have a very right-wing media in Canada and are living in a world where people want to ramp up the pro-war rhetoric.

Would you rather have a war monger like Harper in power right now?

I think it's quite extraordinary that we have a thoughtful PM like Trudeau who isn't rushing into war the way lots of people in the Canadian media would like him to.  That should be a position that makes NDP supporters like yourself glad.

Brachina

Unionist wrote:

Debater wrote:

Trudeau has brought the Federal Cabinet closer to parity than anyone else in Canadian history.

Except for Québec, of course - we had parity in 2007.

Quote:
Eg. We need to have the first female Finance Minister some day.

Except for Québec, of course. Monique Gagnon-Tremblay was named Finance Minister in 1993. And Pauline Marois was named Finance Minister in 1995, and Finance Minister and Deputy Premier in 2001.

Quote:
But considering that it was totally male-dominated when Trudeau arrived, this is a monumental change.

I agree. But you know, I think Trudeau promising gender parity was even more important than achieving it. Because it tells the whole society that it matters. It tells women, girls, in every walk of life, that this actually matters. It tells men and boys that it matters.

I thought it was a master stroke. Attempts to minimize it miss the point.

 

 

Actually I feel the opposite, it was stupid, if he wanted 50% women in his cabinat and more racial minorities, then shut up and do it.

By making it into a whole thing he's made it about himself, its his achievement and that's how people will see, not that these people worked hard, which as much as I hate Liberals, many of them did work hard and have achievements to thier name.

 But Justin's approach will colour that and because Justin made it about parity instead of merit, people will look on these ministers and assume they got the job because they were women or racial minorities.

Its a white guy looking to make himself they're savior to buff his own ego.

 I have no objections to a 50% male 50% female cabinat and given the large amount of female MPs Justin elected, it'd be shocking if he didn't have 50% women, but by the way he went about things he's undermined peoples respect for these MPs which makes their jobs harder.

 

 I share the goals of greater diversity in public office more women too, as long as they are quality people, but affirmative action is the lazest way to achieve that and it can create more resentment and bigotry then it fixes.

I'd rather go with longer term solution and that aren't as divisive like research into how subconscious biases work and how to help them get passed them, I'd also like to focus on solutions that encourage people to grow and improve themselves and give them to tools to be stronger people.

 thealantic.com/magazine/archieve/2015/09/the-coddling-of-the-american-mind/399356

 

 I had to type that who address out, but its really worth reading.

 At the end of it are some really good suggestions.

Brachina

Debater wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:

That's a really surprising thing, actually.  In the past, Liberal governments after 12 days in office have usually broken all their promises.  And yet so far, Trudeau hasn't.  Amazing.  How long can they keep it up?

Justin Trudeau is the most progressive PM you are going to see in Canada for a long time.

Rather than always hoping that you can find things to criticize him for, why don't you find some areas of common agreement?

If the Liberals & the NDP would stop fighting with each other all the time, maybe they could do a better job of challenging Conservative propaganda.

We have a very right-wing media in Canada and are living in a world where people want to ramp up the pro-war rhetoric.

Would you rather have a war monger like Harper in power right now?

I think it's quite extraordinary that we have a thoughtful PM like Trudeau who isn't rushing into war the way lots of people in the Canadian media would like him to.  That should be a position that makes NDP supporters like yourself glad.

 If the Liberals want a less resentful relationship with NDPers,they need to start by admitting what the Liberals did to Canada and its people was wrong, they slashed and burned the social safety net, they broke tons of promises, including on Kyoto ect...

 Next step is to keep the progressive promises the Liberals have made, especially PR, getting rid of winner takes all alone will make for a less polarized political enviroment.

Brachina

I will say that because harper was such a huge asshole and most Canadians hated the guy, that the bar has been greatly lowered. This will likely be a long honeymoon, years in fact which is bad for Mulcair.

Aristotleded24

Brachina wrote:
I will say that because harper was such a huge asshole and most Canadians hated the guy, that the bar has been greatly lowered. This will likely be a long honeymoon, years in fact which is bad for Mulcair.

People were releived to see Mulroney gone in 1993, only to be shocked by the fact that Martin's budget cuts went farther than Mulroney dared. It wasn't visible, but the resentment against the Chretien Liberals was so great that they came close to losing their majority in 1997. The opposition Trudeau faces is much stronger, united, and more competent than Chretien faced, and that's true regardless of what happens to the leadership of the Conservatives and the NDP.

Pages