Jagmeet Singh provincial seat (on federal level) has been vacated

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Mighty Middle
Jagmeet Singh provincial seat (on federal level) has been vacated

Brampton East MP Raj Grewal is resigning his seat due to personal and medical reasons. The resignation is effective immediately.

This is the same riding Jagmeet Singh represented provincially. Talk about a game changer - but how will he go from saying he wants to represent Burnaby South to saying he wants to go home and represent Brampton?

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NDPP

How fortuitous...

WWWTT

This is a very safe seat for him. 

I always thought he would just wait for the general to run against Grewal. 

But surpise surprise. 

So who else thinks this was fixed?

Mighty Middle

WWWTT wrote:

This is a very safe seat for him. 

I always thought he would just wait for the general to run against Grewal. 

But surpise surprise. 

So who else thinks this was fixed?

But how can he flip-flop like this? Going from saying to "I'm committed to Burnaby South" to saying "I'm going to run in Brampton East" - Plus Trudeau might not even call a by-election for Brampton.

NDPP

True. A sticky wicket indeed.

WWWTT

Ya you’re no fun. 

I give it a 70% chance that Jagmeet sticks to run in Brampton east. Either in a bi or general. 

Mighty Middle

WWWTT wrote:

Ya you’re no fun. 

I give it a 70% chance that Jagmeet sticks to run in Brampton east. Either in a bi or general. 

How does he explain to the voters of both Brampton and Burnaby for his reversal?

NDPP

Trudeau will play cat and mouse games with him over this.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I've always thought this was a poor choice for a seat for Singh and would hope he runs in Brampton. Then the local riding association can have a real nomination meeting and a local candidate will run.

What percentage of voters in either Brampton or Burnaby would even know he said he was going to run in Burnaby and how many of those would care? He needs to show that he can win on his own turf if the NDP hopes to make gains in Ontario in the next election.

Burnaby voters are used to voting for independent minded candidates who take strong stands on local issues like pipelines, even when the central party is being wishy washy. The NDP brand is only one part of the equation in winning this seat and I am not sure being the NDP leader is any advantage for him.

 

JeffWells

Wow. The very day the Burnaby South byelection is called.

So, does Singh now pull out of Burnaby and run in Brampton? He wins, but it's a very bad look. Very, very bad. Or does he run in Burnaby South, expending capital the party doesn't have and risking an embarrassing defeat?

The Liberals want to keep Singh weak, but not so weak he loses his leadership before next year's general election.

They're really good at appearing blameless while playing dirty, the Liberals.

Mighty Middle

Justin Trudeau just tweeted

"Yesterday, I learned that Raj Grewal is facing serious personal challenges, and today he announced he is stepping down as Member of Parliament for Brampton East. While it may have been a difficult decision, it was the right one. I hope he receives the support he needs."

Sean in Ottawa

This is a challenge for Singh as has been mentionned upthread. The Burnaby is a higher stakes byeleciton in many ways:

When leaders lose elections personally they are usually finished. There is an exception: if theya re running in a seat their party did not hold.

Burnaby is a riding that should Singh run in he would have no come-back from a loss as it is presently an NDP seat. To change his mind and go to Brampton would also be difficult and would look desperate - like an admission that he cannot win.

Like it or not, he is stuck.

The Greens not running may give him a couple points, the election may give him more if he makes no mistake. He might win. In the general he can go back to Brampton. If he loses then the NDP has to hold a new -- fast -- race. If that happens I hope they get new candidates-- like some I mentionned previously. But the party would have to be very lucky as in its present condition, it could be a hard sell to get the kind of people the party needs.

 

quizzical

no one except the politically minded will care if he decides to pull out of Burnaby and runs in his home riding. 

no bad optics even. no one in Brampton would want to lose him. they win and keep him.

Burnaby residents though resigned to have a non local run to get him in a seat now can feel relieved they can go local and not have to have a new mp in the inbtge not to distant future. Jagmeet would go east asap anyway.

this is fabulous.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..if singh is ever going to make it he should go home. he'll be more comfortable there. he'll have a chance to regain his confidence to previous levels. fuck what people think meaning the media, the libs and cons. the ndp is not going to get a fair shake no matter what. he can win there.

robbie_dee

Liberals are being too cute by half. Jagmeet can stick with Burnaby and have his brother (or maybe his sister Manjot) run in Brampton. NDP will probably win both ridings. If Jagmeet loses in Burnaby that would seem to suck at first but I suspect he’s regretted taking the federal leader’s job for some time. Certainly at least since things really started going gangbusters for the Ontario NDP. If Jagmeet wins Burnaby that will change the narrative for the better, but even if he loses all that really means is that he has a graceful exit. He could switch back to Ontario politics where he has so much more success, particularly if his brother is vacating the provincial Brampton seat to accept federal office. If Jagmeet doesn’t win Burnaby South and stay in as federal leader he will probably end up as premier of Ontario once Ford finally flames out.

NDPP

"And as history shows, there's nothing stopping Singh from trading Burnaby for Brampton in 2019, if he wants a riding closer to home. However, Singh told reporters Wednesday that he will move to Burnaby and run again there next year if he wins the byelection. 'I've committed to this riding and I'm committed all the way,' he said."   Huffpost 08-08-2018

pietro_bcc

No one will care if he makes the switch to Brampton other than a bunch of pundits on TV shows that no one actually watches. Who cares what the pundits on Question Period have to say?

If people ask why he switched ridings he can say "before my home riding wasn't available, now it is." And if the other parties or pundits persist he can say "my god are you still crying about that?" Project strength and never apologize unless you actually do something that is against your personal ethical code.

Mighty Middle

There are currently six ridings that will be vacant come January. Trudeau has committed to calling 3 of them in January (Burnaby-South being one of them). He has not committed to calling the remaining 3 (which includes Brampton East)

Jagmeet needs to decide now. Does he 100% commit to Burnaby. Or does he switch to Brampton, and risk Trudeau not calling that by-election at all, as it is so close to a general election. Thus being shut out of House of Commons until the General Election.

Bill C-76, which the government hopes will be passed by the end of this year, would forbid the prime minister to call a byelection within nine months of the day fixed for a general election, making Jan. 20 the last day byelections could be called.

Basement Dweller

He should run in Burnaby South. The NDP has a history of leaders, federally and provincially, who could win their home district seats but did little more. Jagmeet needs to show he's not one of them.

JeffWells

I'm surprised that I haven't seen a statement from Singh about this. Only, IIRC, a no comment from a spokesperson. Which makes me think he's actually entertaining the idea of running in Brampton. If he does, I don't know if that would be the final nail in the coffin of his leadership, but it would certainly be one of many.

The date for the Brampton byelection could be six months away. Running in Burnaby South may be a bad choice, but it's better than the worse choice of appearing scared of a tough fight, reneging on a promise and spending another half year on the sidelines.

Mighty Middle

THIS JUST IN - Jagmeet Singh says he is sticking with Burnaby-South and will not run in Brampton East

JeffWells

I know the consituency of people who are paying attention to this must be awfully small right now, but IMO it's going to grow, and it will only be negative attention, the longer he doesn't reiterate his committment to run in Burnaby South. He's letting the story get ahead of him, when he could actually have put it to use to demonstrate resolve. Which is something of a pattern.

NDPP

MPs Told Not To Talk Publicly About Raj Grewal Resignation

https://ipolitics.ca/2018/11/23/mps-told-not-to-talk-publicly-about-raj-...

voice of the damned

Huh? Post 21 is timed at 12:59, but Post 22 clocks in at 12:58.  

Pondering

Responded in the wrong thread

brookmere

Mighty Middle wrote:
Bill C-76, which the government hopes will be passed by the end of this year, would forbid the prime minister to call a byelection within nine months of the day fixed for a general election, making Jan. 20 the last day byelections could be called.

That's not exactly what the bill says:

no writ for the election of a member of the House shall be issued if the vacancy occurs in the House of Commons less than nine months before the date fixed under subsection 56.‍1(2) of the Canada Elections Act for the holding of a general election.

If the vacancy occurs less than 9 months before the election, no by-election may be called. But there's no restriction if the vacancy occurs before that.

WWWTT

Ok looks like Jagmeet sticking to Burnaby. The ONDP did do well in Brampton overall last provincial election so I imagine the NDP has a strong network in Brampton and will give the liberals a good run. 

robbie_dee

PMO says MP Raj Grewal resigned after admitting to gambling problem and significant personal debt (Toronto Star)

Quote:

OTTAWA—Brampton East MP Raj Grewal announced he would resign his seat after informing the Prime Minister’s Office that he is getting health treatment for a gambling problem that has driven him into debt.

Chantal Gagnon, a spokesperson for the prime minister, told the Star by email Friday that Grewal informed them of his situation this week.

“Earlier this week, Mr. Grewal told us that he is undergoing serious personal challenges, and that he is receiving treatment from a health professional related to a gambling problem that led him to incur significant personal debts,” Gagnon said.

“Based on these circumstances, we agreed that his decision to resign as Member of Parliament for Brampton East was the right one. We hope he receives the support he needs.”

Gagnon added that the PMO is aware the Royal Canadian Mounted Police made inquiries earlier this year into the circumstances surrounding the ethics commissioner’s investigation into Grewal’s conduct during Justin Trudeau’s trip to India.

RCMP spokesperson Chantal Payette declined to comment Friday afternoon, stating “the RCMP does not confirm or deny the existence of a criminal investigation unless charges are laid.”

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

WWWTT wrote:

Ok looks like Jagmeet sticking to Burnaby. The ONDP did do well in Brampton overall last provincial election so I imagine the NDP has a strong network in Brampton and will give the liberals a good run. 

He pretty much had to stick to Burnaby.  Switching to Brampton East would likely have cost the NDP BOTH byelections-Brampton East because Singh would look like an opportunist for switching, Burnaby because the Liberals and Conservatives would have made Singh's departure the central issue in that contest..."why should the good people of Burnaby vote for the NDP candidate when the NDP leader made it clear he doesn't think the riding is good enough for him?"

 

Pondering

The election in Burnaby is a referendum on the pipeline. If the Liberals win it will embolden Trudeau to force the pipeline through.  It is by far the single most important federal issue in Burnaby. Singh will be campaigning against it. It's getting to a point where a choice has to be made between BC voters and Alberta voters. BC is a better bet for the NDP.

Singh is betting that there is more opposition to the pipeline than support in Burnaby. I suspect he is right. If he wins the seat he will continue to oppose TM. It will be a signature issue championing the right of people to protect their local environment and the need for thorough environmental assessment before making a decision. Because the Liberals made up their minds in advance the consultations are a sham.

Singh is making climate change a major issue. Wise choice in my view. It may not win him this election but the NDP has to take on climate change if he is to steal current and youth support from Trudeau. There is a huge generational divide on the environment. Young people may be skipping conventional news sources but they know about the islands of plastic. They know about microbeads. They believe in climate change and know that they will be the hardest hit.

This is a means for Singh to begin to take ownership of climate change. Here is a preview of the direction Singh is taking for 2019.

“We’re seeing, again and again, that this government’s priorities aren’t everyday people,” he said. “This byelection for me is an opportunity for us to talk about what’s at stake for Canadians.”

Singh said those issues include affordable housing, the rising cost of prescription drugs and climate change, among others.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/february-byelection-for-b-c-riding-where...

pietro_bcc

Ken Burch wrote:

WWWTT wrote:

Ok looks like Jagmeet sticking to Burnaby. The ONDP did do well in Brampton overall last provincial election so I imagine the NDP has a strong network in Brampton and will give the liberals a good run. 

He pretty much had to stick to Burnaby.  Switching to Brampton East would likely have cost the NDP BOTH byelections-Brampton East because Singh would look like an opportunist for switching, Burnaby because the Liberals and Conservatives would have made Singh's departure the central issue in that contest..."why should the good people of Burnaby vote for the NDP candidate when the NDP leader made it clear he doesn't think the riding is good enough for him?"

 

And right there is the reason that the NDP are perpetual losers. They care too much about what their opponents will say. You don't see the Conservatives running scared and being timid because of what the Liberals will say, they disregard their opponents' rhetoric and bulldoze, which is what the NDP should be doing.

In anycase that's not how it would play out, all he had to say was "I was running in Burnaby because my home riding wasn't available, but I believed that Canadians needed my voice in the house of commons to defend the rights of workers like the Canada Post workers who had their collective bargaining rights infringed by the Liberals and Conservatives. But now my home riding of Brampton is available so I'm running where I've lived for many years and will soon appoint a quality candidate to hopefully represent the people of Burnaby." Controversy over, but instead the NDP is too clever by half. They believe they're playing 3 dimensional chess, but they're barely playing checkers.

I'm not even a fan of Singh's leadership, but I believe he should be allowed to run in the next election as leader because that's what the party members decided. He just put himself in a position that he might be forced by his members to vacate his leadership if he loses in Burnaby, which it currently looks like he will.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

The election in Burnaby is a referendum on the pipeline.

..it is absolutely not a referendum on the pipeline. 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

pietro_bcc wrote:

But now my home riding of Brampton is available so I'm running where I've lived for many years and will soon appoint a quality candidate to hopefully represent the people of Burnaby. Controversy over, but instead the NDP is too clever by half. They believe they're playing 3 dimensional chess, but they're barely playing checkers.

Wow, when Svend resigned we had around a thousand members vote at the nomination in Burnaby-Douglas. You think that the best way to hold the seat is for a leader from Brampton to tell the locals that he will pick someone for them? WTF

WWWTT

Ya pietro got that part wrong. There’s always a nomination meeting. 

And that can be a whole issue in itself! I’m sure you know what I’m talking about 

pietro_bcc

Quibbling over minor details about how the nomination vacancy would be filled have the nomination meeting, the larger point is Singh deciding what he does because he's afraid of what the opposition will say projects weakness.

Mighty Middle

pietro_bcc wrote:

But now my home riding of Brampton is available so I'm running where I've lived for many years and will soon appoint a quality candidate to hopefully represent the people of Burnaby.

And what if after he says that, the Liberals decide not to hold a by-election in Brampton East? Three years ago this month Glenn Thibeault resigned his Sudbury seat to run for the provincial Liberals (December 2014). When 2015 came Stephen Harper didn't call a single by-election from January 2015 until Parliament was dissolved.

The NDP did not complain about leaving  the seat of Sudbury vacant (without representation) for 6 months (January until the session was over in June). If Singh pulls out of Burnaby-South for Bramption, and Trudeau doesn't call the by-election, the Liberals can point to Burnaby-South and say Singh had his chance to run, but he was the one who dropped out.

pietro_bcc

Mighty Middle wrote:

pietro_bcc wrote:

But now my home riding of Brampton is available so I'm running where I've lived for many years and will soon appoint a quality candidate to hopefully represent the people of Burnaby.

And what if after he says that, the Liberals decide not to hold a by-election in Brampton East? Three years ago this month Glenn Thibeault resigned his Sudbury seat to run for the provincial Liberals (December 2014). When 2015 came Stephen Harper didn't call a single by-election from January 2015 until Parliament was dissolved.

The NDP did not complain about leaving  the seat of Sudbury vacant (without representation) for 6 months (January until the session was over in June). If Singh pulls out of Burnaby-South for Bramption, and Trudeau doesn't call the by-election, the Liberals can point to Burnaby-South and say Singh had his chance to run, but he was the one who dropped out.

Once again the rationale for not switching to Brampton isn't the actual merits of whether Singh has a better chance of winning or whether he should represent the citizens of his home city.

Its, "bbbut the Liberals will say..." Who cares what the Liberals will say? Do you think Scheer makes decisions based on what the NDP will say? Do you think Trudeau makes decisions based on what the Bloc Quebecois will say? No, they just do what they think will benefit their party in the next election. Caring about what's best for your party and will best appeal to voters is the mentality of a winning party, while making decisions out of fear of what your opponents will say is the mentality of a loser party which is what the NDP is.

Mighty Middle

pietro_bcc wrote:

Once again the rationale for not switching to Brampton isn't the actual merits of whether Singh has a better chance of winning or whether he should represent the citizens of his home city.

Its, "bbbut the Liberals will say..." Who cares what the Liberals will say? Do you think Scheer makes decisions based on what the NDP will say? Do you think Trudeau makes decisions based on what the Bloc Quebecois will say? No, they just do what they think will benefit their party in the next election. Caring about what's best for your party and will best appeal to voters is the mentality of a winning party, while making decisions out of fear of what your opponents will say is the mentality of a loser party which is what the NDP is.

No, my point is what if Jagmeet Singh announces that he will run in Brampton East, and then Trudeau decides NOT to call a by-election in that riding. Then what?

Sean in Ottawa

pietro_bcc wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:

pietro_bcc wrote:

But now my home riding of Brampton is available so I'm running where I've lived for many years and will soon appoint a quality candidate to hopefully represent the people of Burnaby.

And what if after he says that, the Liberals decide not to hold a by-election in Brampton East? Three years ago this month Glenn Thibeault resigned his Sudbury seat to run for the provincial Liberals (December 2014). When 2015 came Stephen Harper didn't call a single by-election from January 2015 until Parliament was dissolved.

The NDP did not complain about leaving  the seat of Sudbury vacant (without representation) for 6 months (January until the session was over in June). If Singh pulls out of Burnaby-South for Bramption, and Trudeau doesn't call the by-election, the Liberals can point to Burnaby-South and say Singh had his chance to run, but he was the one who dropped out.

Once again the rationale for not switching to Brampton isn't the actual merits of whether Singh has a better chance of winning or whether he should represent the citizens of his home city.

Its, "bbbut the Liberals will say..." Who cares what the Liberals will say? Do you think Scheer makes decisions based on what the NDP will say? Do you think Trudeau makes decisions based on what the Bloc Quebecois will say? No, they just do what they think will benefit their party in the next election. Caring about what's best for your party and will best appeal to voters is the mentality of a winning party, while making decisions out of fear of what your opponents will say is the mentality of a loser party which is what the NDP is.

Interesting to try to follow the logic of comparing a situation where one is the PM and actually has powers the other does not have and the other is a third party in another jurisdiction.

At the end of the day, what is best for a party is to make the best choices within the context that it has. This context:

1) the PM can choose the timing of the election

2) The PM is of another party and can play games with it within the rules

4) public opinion in the riding is an important consideration as these are the voters in the byelection

5) public opinion across the country is important for a party leader as this is where the voters for the party candidates come from

6) The media is likely to be no more friendly to the party than its proportion in the popular vote (in other words - most against)

What is in the interest of the party includes being aware of all the other factors. Looking indecisive will create a stroyline that the leader cannot escape.

 

Misfit Misfit's picture

I actually think that Jagmeet Singh will do well in Burnaby South if he decides to run there. However, for the few months that the election is from  the federal election next fall, I really don't think that it is a big deal for him to run in Burnaby South.

i don't think that Trudeau will call a an election for Brampton East but I do think that it is smarter for Jagmeet Singh to just wait and run in Brampton East next year which is his home and where he should be.

i believe that if that Lineral had not resigned, Jagmeet would have handily defeated him next year in the general election anyway. 

I really don't think that it is a big deal not having the leader in the HoC before the next election, and I also don't think that many people really care. The NDP is a third place party and it is not a big deal.

i hope that Jagmeet Singh sits things out to run in his home riding of Brampton East. It doesn't matter who runs against him because Singh will win just like he would Burnaby South. Brampton East makes practical sense. Burnaby South doesn't to me.

jerrym

Misfit wrote:

i hope that Jagmeet Singh sits things out to run in his home riding of Brampton East. It doesn't matter who runs against him because Singh will win just like he would Burnaby South. Brampton East makes practical sense. Burnaby South doesn't to me.

As noted above, Jagmeet Singh has commited to run in Burnaby South despite the Brampton East opening up.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/11/23/jagmeet-singh-burnaby-south-bra...

brookmere

Misfit wrote:
i don't think that Trudeau will call a an election for Brampton East

He has to, becase the seat is now vacant and it's over 9 months until the general election date. However he can set the date the same as the general election. I don't understand the optimism here about this seat, the Liberals got over 50% of the vote last time and the NDP came 3rd.

Mighty Middle

brookmere wrote:

Misfit wrote:
i don't think that Trudeau will call a an election for Brampton East

He has to, becase the seat is now vacant and it's over 9 months until the general election date. However he can set the date the same as the general election. I don't understand the optimism here about this seat, the Liberals got over 50% of the vote last time and the NDP came 3rd.

He has until January 20th to call a by-election. If he decides not to, then the seat will be left vacant until the federal election.

cco

He can't "decide not to". He has to call a by-election by that date, though the date can be as late as the general election date (which would massively mess with campaign finance rules).

WWWTT

I would imagine if the PM plays too many games with dates for bi elections and the general next year, it could haunt the liberals some

Pondering

epaulo13 wrote:

The election in Burnaby is a referendum on the pipeline.

..it is absolutely not a referendum on the pipeline. 

If the Liberals take the seat for Trudeau that will tell Trudeau that he can push the pipeline through without much political cost. If the Conservatives take it that also sends the message that regardless of how they feel about the pipeline they will accept it. If the NDP takes it it will be because the majority are against the pipeline strongly enough to reject the Liberals and Conservatives. It wouldn't even change the balance of power in Ottawa. There is usually a lower turnout than in general elections. It is mostly people who consider it a duty or feel strongly on a topic. The pipeline is the biggest federal issue in Burnaby by far.

If Singh doesn't win it is very bad news for the party and for the environment.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

pondering

..it is not bby or the ndp that is preventing the pipeline it's indigenous folk and the courts. you skip over this with such ease it alarms me from time to time. whether singh wins or looses it changes nothing with the pipeline. 

Pondering

epaulo13 wrote:

pondering

..it is not bby or the ndp that is preventing the pipeline it's indigenous folk and the courts. you skip over this with such ease it alarms me from time to time. whether singh wins or looses it changes nothing with the pipeline. 

That isn't what I meant. The pipeline may still be stopped but it will show that the environment is not a topic that sways voters very much even in a byelection.

Mighty Middle

cco wrote:
He can't "decide not to". He has to call a by-election by that date, though the date can be as late as the general election date (which would massively mess with campaign finance rules).

Three years ago this month Glenn Thibeault resigned his Sudbury seat to run for the provincial Liberals (December 2014). When 2015 came Stephen Harper didn't call a single by-election from January 2015 until Parliament was dissolved.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Pondering wrote:

epaulo13 wrote:

pondering

..it is not bby or the ndp that is preventing the pipeline it's indigenous folk and the courts. you skip over this with such ease it alarms me from time to time. whether singh wins or looses it changes nothing with the pipeline. 

That isn't what I meant. The pipeline may still be stopped but it will show that the environment is not a topic that sways voters very much even in a byelection.

..i don't believe that this is what this election will show. this campaign is already politically charged. for one the ndp parachuted singh in. for another is the level of discomfort the ndp as a party has about singh as a leader. then there's the erin weir event that was splashed across the country. all this polarizes people.

..if anything it's a referendum on the ndp current state of affairs but to call it one on the pipeline is a stretch. bby just elected a mayor and council that was anti-pipeline. bby just elected a mayor and council that is anti-pipeline..for a reason. your not calling that the referendum. 

..elections are not referendums. sometimes politicos claim them to be but they aren't. they are political campaigns and don't have the level of debate and interactions referendums require.   

Sean in Ottawa

The byelection has a lot at stake for Singh. Perhaps less so for the NDP.

If Singh loses the party has enough time to have a quick leadership campaign and choose a new leader. If he wins then he can go into the general with that.

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