Labrador By-Election

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Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I like Sean's idea (NDP sit this one out), but I wonder if anyone in Labrador shares it?

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Mulcair should make a visit to the riding soon, get the ground troops fired up, and meet with possible candidates. The NDP could win this riding.

I'd rather go with Sean and see the NDP sit this one out. The Libs would have won last time if the Cons hadn't cheated. And either of the potential Liberal candidates would be a good choice for this riding over Penashue.

Sean in Ottawa

It would establish a sense of fairness and integrity -- the public has a sense that all politicians do is look for opportunity. Reaching direct for fairness and seeing big picture would look good on NDP and would be talked about for years. The NDP might or might not win this now but it would establish something for the future not just there but everywhere.

It would also put the topic of corruption and electoral cheating at the top. It might also lead to the Liberals feeling pressure to reciprocate somewhere else. If the COC suits ever resulted in by elections there would be times to make that case. If the Liberals agreed, good. If not they would look very bad and the NDP would likely win them. Very strong message that this is not a normal by election. The NDP would make the absence of a candidate absolutely clear that the entire campaign would have to be about Conservative cheating.

The NDP could also door knock in the riding reminding people of what is at stake in cheating and explain why they won't run a candidate now. But the candidate of 2015 could start now. Lots of possibilities and they are better than treating this like business as usual.

The media will pretend this is a normal by election if the opposition parties don't do something drastic. There is much, much more to gain by not being on the ballot in this very unusual case.

Stockholm

Boom Boom wrote:

I like Sean's idea (NDP sit this one out), but I wonder if anyone in Labrador shares it?

If they do then the NDP will get less votes. In the 2011 election it was not a two way contest between the CPC and the Liberals, there were four candidates on the ballot and people have a right to vote for whoever they want. Penashue beat Ruseel by 79 votes in a contest with four names on the ballot not two. in any case, this is not a sudden death run-off, it is a byelection caused by a resignation. Russell may not even run again.

In 1990 there was a federal byelection in York North because after endless recounts between the Liberal and the PC the election was declared "controverted"...of course by 1990 Mulroney had become ridiculously unpopular and the NDP was in a honeymoon post the Rae victory provincially so when the byelection took place the Liberal won, the NDP tripled its vote and came in second and the Tory was a distant third...tough beans for the Tory that the byelection was held in a very different environment than during the 1988 election. That's the way the ball bounces.

The Liberals would NOT feel under any "pressure to reciprocate" if the NDP sat out the byelection. Do you think the Liberal Party is the Marquess of Queensberry???

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

You mean they aren't? Laughing

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

There is no doubt that if he is the one writing the rules they would like to be.

knownothing knownothing's picture

Boom Boom wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Mulcair should make a visit to the riding soon, get the ground troops fired up, and meet with possible candidates. The NDP could win this riding.

I'd rather go with Sean and see the NDP sit this one out. The Libs would have won last time if the Cons hadn't cheated. And either of the potential Liberal candidates would be a good choice for this riding over Penashue.

 

Boom Boom, you make me want to punch a hole in my monitor!

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I don't think that is in the rules for boxing.

Debater

Boom Boom wrote:

I like Sean's idea (NDP sit this one out), but I wonder if anyone in Labrador shares it?

It's a nice idea in theory, but I don't think it will happen.  The NDP needs to look competitive and I don't think Mulcair would allow it.  Mulcair wants the NDP to be in the mix, not allow it to only be a contest between the Liberals and Conservatives.

So there will be an NDP candidate, but it will be interesting to see who it is.  Will an NDP MHA run, in the way Yvonne Jones is doing?

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

knownothing wrote:
Boom Boom, you make me want to punch a hole in my monitor!

That makes my day! I'd rather get a response from people than be ignored. Laughing

Sean in Ottawa

I think it would be the right thing and the communications value out of it could be even greater than winning that one seat-- especially if done well.

Obviously the condition would the last Liberal Candidate. You could suppot acclaiming the runner up where there was cheating but not a new candidate-- in that case the NDP should go for broke.

This has nothing to do with Queensbury rules. This is about taking a position on corruption and cheating and having increased credibility behind it. It is about a moral highground when the next election could be fought over ethics and democratic principles rather than just the economy.

Stockholm

Penashue did not only beat the Liberal candidate (fraudulently) in 2011. he also beat the NDP candidate and the NDP has just as much right to try to knock him off in the byelection as the Liberals do. this byelection will be very soon after Justin has his royal coronation as Liberal leader, if the NDP could win Labrador it would be a great way to get justin off on the wriong track!

Sean in Ottawa

The NDP were far enough back that they would not have won the riding had Peneshue had not cheated.

Brachina

Its very possible niether would the Liberals, this was electoral financing fraud, not vote tampering so you can't know if it made a difference or not.

More importantly its not for you or me to decide or even Mulcair. Its the choice of the people of the riding to choose If they agree with you it should be Liberal they can make that choice on thier own, they don't need you to make that choice. To take that choice away from the voters, to force some disgusting Liberal down thier throats is wrong and if someone took that choice away from me, I'd hate them forever and spoil my ballot. I'd die a thousand times before I'd vote Liberal.

This is democracy which means its up to the PEOPLE to decide and sit in judgement. Not backroom players looking to subvert democracy in a misguided attempt at honour, which instead is disrespect.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Brachina wrote:
Its very possible niether would the Liberals, this was electoral financing fraud, not vote tampering so you can't know if it made a difference or not.

That's bullshit. Penashue got free (and illegal) flights from the airline which allowed him to fly into hard-to-reach territory and more frequently. He had a tremendous unfair advantage, and despite that, he only beat Todd Russell by 78 votes. Russell was robbed.

Sean in Ottawa

Let's not compare this case where a cheater won by a hair with any of the bullshit pre election deals that would reduce voter selection okay? Not the case. Labrador would have had only one election in 2011 and another in 2015 if it were not for the Conservative cheating. If the seat were handed to the second placed Liberal this time voters would still have 2015 ro make a change like they always would ahve had just that the second place person would represent the riding rather than the cheater.

As I say I'd prefer that this happened all the time-- if the winner is found to cheat the next place candidate gets the seat. That would make cheaters think twice.

Ippurigakko

Phyllis Artiss maybe run labrador by-election? I think she gonna retire IDK?

 

Peter's mother on cbc "Proud of son, but he's wrong MP's mom" in may 2011

she met NDP candidate Phyllis Artiss in 2008 election who is 2nd place.

here Peter's mom near Phyllis

Debater

Stockholm wrote:

Penashue did not only beat the Liberal candidate (fraudulently) in 2011. he also beat the NDP candidate and the NDP has just as much right to try to knock him off in the byelection as the Liberals do. this byelection will be very soon after Justin has his royal coronation as Liberal leader, if the NDP could win Labrador it would be a great way to get justin off on the wriong track!

Justin is not being coronated - if he wins it will be because he was the most popular candidate and earned the votes through his superior organization and fundraising over the other Liberal candidates.  Unlike Ignatieff, Justin is not deposing an incumbent leader and taking over without having been elected.

Anyway, as for Labrador, as I said above, I am not predicting a Liberal win because you can never rule out the Cons.  But what I am predicting is that the NDP will not win the seat.  Actually, I'm willing to make an agreement, Stockholm - if I am wrong and the NDP does win Labrador, those here will have earned the right to rake me over the coals and rub it in my face for the rest of the year. Wink

jjuares

I beleieve sitting out this byelection could be seen as a betrayal by New Democrats in this riding. There are significant differences between the Liberals and the Cons, however, their similarities are even more important.

Debater

The NDP aren't going to sit out the by-election - that's just the suggestion of a couple of people on this thread.  I don't think the NDP leadership would allow it.  There will be an NDP candidate.

 

Btw, Rex Murphy took a break tonight from his usual pro-Conservative rhetoric to do a critical piece on Peter Penashue:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z__Jb4QRRaA&feature=youtu.be

JKR

Brachina wrote:
 More importantly its not for you or me to decide or even Mulcair. Its the choice of the people of the riding to choose  If they agree with you it should be Liberal they can make that choice on thier own, they don't need you to make that choice. To take that choice away from the voters, to force some disgusting Liberal down thier throats is wrong and if someone took that choice away from me, I'd hate them forever and spoil my ballot. I'd die a thousand times before I'd vote Liberal.

 This is democracy which means its up to the PEOPLE to decide and sit in judgement....

Because we use FPTP, the will of the people often doesn't decide who wins elections in Canada. The majority of voters in Labrador did not choose Peter Penashue in 2011.  If second and third preferences were taken into consideration, the majority of voters would have elected Todd Russell. Penashue stole the election in Labrador in 2011 but so did FPTP, which also stole many other ridings.

Aristotleded24

JKR wrote:
Brachina wrote:
 More importantly its not for you or me to decide or even Mulcair. Its the choice of the people of the riding to choose  If they agree with you it should be Liberal they can make that choice on thier own, they don't need you to make that choice. To take that choice away from the voters, to force some disgusting Liberal down thier throats is wrong and if someone took that choice away from me, I'd hate them forever and spoil my ballot. I'd die a thousand times before I'd vote Liberal.  This is democracy which means its up to the PEOPLE to decide and sit in judgement....
Because we use FPTP, the will of the people often doesn't decide who wins elections in Canada. The majority of voters in Labrador did not choose Peter Penashue in 2011.  If second and third preferences were taken into consideration, the majority of voters would have elected Todd Russell. Penashue stole the election in Labrador in 2011 but so did FPTP, which also stole many other ridings.

I'm assuming you have done the study of Labrador voters to see where their second preferences lined up?

Aristotleded24

JKR wrote:
I"m assuming that people who voted for the NDP and Greens in Labrador would have, by even a small margin, voted more often for Russell than Penashue.

You know what happens to people who assume?

You can assume all kinds of things. In Western Canada, there is what I call a blue-collar Tory vote that swings between the NDP and the Conservatives. From 2008 to 2011, there is a huge slide in the Liberal vote that went almost directly to the Conservatives, so again, you cannot make assumptions about how people will vote. And as a remote riding, other factors besides party labels will play into effect. Perhaps Penashue became so personally popular within Labrador that he will win the riding. Perhaps Todd Russell will be able to come back.

I agree with proportional representation, but you simply cannot make assumptions about voters and how an election goes by adding up numbers for a particular party.

JKR

I"m assuming that people who voted for the NDP and Greens in Labrador would have, by even a small margin, voted more often for Russell than Penashue if given second and third preferences.

In any case a democratic electoral system should ensure that in elections the votes of the majority are worth more than the votes of the minority. Unfortunately, we have minority rule brought to us by FPTP.

JKR

Recent polling of subsequent preferences has consistently shown that people who vote NDP or Green are much more likely to prefer the Liberals over Conservatives.

That's what my assumption was based on.

JKR

Polling has shown that the Conservatives have less subsequent preference support than the other parties. The Conservatives have done a great job consolidating the right-wing vote but in the process they have isolated themselves from most of the remaining pool of votes. Only FPTP would allow such a divisive strategy to win majority government. We're the only major developed country in the world that is ruled by a majority government that received less than 40% of the vote.

Aristotleded24

JKR wrote:
Recent polling of subsequent preferences has consistently shown that people who vote NDP or Green are much more likely to prefer the Liberals over Conservatives. That's what my assumption was based on.

Even so, you can't use those general results to predict how a race in one particular constituency will go under certain circumstances. And while you may be correct about who Liberal voters prefer as their second choice, you can see that in the GTA in 2011, Liberal voters went Conservative to stop the NDP when you look at the change in the numbers.

Besides, that 40% margin is also approximately how Chretien won his majorities. Is it okay for Chretien, or is it only a problem for Harper because Harper is "scary?"

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Debater wrote:

 

Justin is not being coronated.

Thank heavens-It sounds like something that would REALLY hurt.

 

JKR

Aristotleded24 wrote:
Besides, that 40% margin is also approximately how Chretien won his majorities. Is it okay for Chretien, or is it only a problem for Harper because Harper is "scary?"

It was just as much a problem when Chretien was our scary FPTP phony majority dictator. 

adma

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

The NDP were far enough back that they would not have won the riding had Peneshue had not cheated.

Though let's consider, too, that that esp. before the gravity of the Orange Crush sunk in, they might not have been seriously considering this seat, this time--however, Penashue's winning share wasn't that far above Randy Collins' federal losing share in '97.

And re the "which way the left/right vote defaults" question some are offering: remember, this is Newfoundland & Labrador, the question of left/right allegiances can be "complicated" here...

Stockholm

Apparently the NDP will have a contested nomination in Labrador...lots of interest from local notables in running

Ottawa Centre-Left

I've heard that Harry Borlase has confirmed, any other names that are not just speculation?

NorthReport

What have the Cons and the Liberals done for the people of this riding while they were in power, and what is the NDP proposing to do for them once they become the government in Ottawa?

Debater

Ottawa Centre-Left wrote:

I've heard that Harry Borlase has confirmed, any other names that are not just speculation?

Yes, he seems to have confirmed on Twitter that he is running.

https://twitter.com/HarryBorlase

Debater

Elections Canada to recruit up to six new investigators for violations probes

MARCH 22, 2013 1:20 PM

http://www.canada.com/news/Elections+Canada+recruit+investigators+violat...

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Debater, seriously, do you really think anyone who posts here, or anyone with any political accumen at all doesn't look at the LPC leadership and see it for what it is, a Trudeau Cornation? Why can't you just admit it? There's no race and you know it. I agree one thing though, if enough people catch on to what this so-called Leadership Race was, it'll hurt you guys badly.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Well, maybe Penashue is just a 'demi-God' after Harper Himself: all bow down before Harper Canada!

Debater

AC, from now on I will only be responding to posts on this thread that have to do with the Labrador by-election.

I just posted a link above to the Twitter account of the first declared candidate for the NDP nomination.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

NorthReport wrote:

What have the Cons and the Liberals done for the people of this riding while they were in power, and what is the NDP proposing to do for them once they become the government in Ottawa?

According to Harper in QP the other day, Penashue single-handedly paved the TransLabradorian Highway, and single-handedly landed the Muskrat Falls Hydro Project. Oh, and Penashue by himself saved the polar bear hunt, and abolished the Long Gun Registry.

Maybe Penashue really is God! Money mouth

Debater

Interesting.  I hadn't seen that phrase before, Boom Boom.  Is that what the CPC is now calling everything?  "Harper Canada"?  Looks like the Liberals & the NDP have an opportunity to draw attention to King Harper's out of control arrogance.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Debater wrote:

AC, from now on I will only be responding to posts on this thread that have to do with the Labrador by-election.

I just posted a link above to the Twitter account of the first declared candidate for the NDP nomination.

OK, so I assume you won't be bringing up any other non related material. That's fine with me. Oh by the way, you still haven't answered Sean's question. What do you think about Trudeau crossing a picket line. That's kind of funny behaviour form "a man of the people", isn't it? Eh?

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I saw that on another forum - it's a screenshot of a government of Canada webpage.

All bow down to Harper Canada! Money mouth

Debater

I don't think we've ever had a PM who names the country after himself.

nicky

There is a sec on contender for the NDP nomination - Mike Goosney a town councilor in Labrador City.

Debater

nicky wrote:
There is a sec on contender for the NDP nomination - Mike Goosney a town councilor in Labrador City.

Looks like he was just elected a little over a year ago.  A little soon to be making the jump to another level?

http://www.theaurora.ca/Community/2011-12-12/article-2832128/Mike-Goosne...

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Debater wrote:

nicky wrote:
There is a sec on contender for the NDP nomination - Mike Goosney a town councilor in Labrador City.

Looks like he was just elected a little over a year ago.  A little soon to be making the jump to another level?

http://www.theaurora.ca/Community/2011-12-12/article-2832128/Mike-Goosne...

Debater, you guys want Trudeau to be PM with almost no experience. Pot calling the Kettle Black, maybe?

Debater

Just wondering why the NDP isn't running someone more experienced and high-profile to run in Labrador.  Penashue & Jones are well-known (as Russell will be if he runs).

Anyone know why the NDP nomination is so soon?  It sounds like they are holding it on Sunday afternoon, according to CBC Newfoundland today.  That doesn't give the NDP candidates much time to get ready.

Debater

Newfoundland MP Scott Andrews letter to Elections Canada re: Peter Penashue:

 

https://www.liberal.ca/newsroom/news-release/letter-elections-canada-pet...

nicky

Debater is content to run down Mr Goosney without knowing anything about him. The article he links, however, shows that he won his municipal by-election convincingly, 460 to 190.

460 is a lot of votes in Labrador

Debater

I didn't 'run him down'.  I asked a valid question as to why someone who was just elected by his community only a little over a year ago to serve in a particular job is considering leaving that job so soon.  I'm sure questions like that will arise in the by-election.  And it appears that the other candidate has been living in Ottawa and doesn't even live in Labrador right now.

Why isn't the NDP giving more time for other candidates to get ready?  Sunday seems very soon to hold the nomination meeting.

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