Latest Polling Thread - February 11, 2012

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NorthReport
Latest Polling Thread - February 11, 2012

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NorthReport

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/candidates+face+Quebec+popularity+fades...

Political analyst Rejean Pelletier said the NDP in Quebec is reeling from Mulcair's absence as he is courting NDP support across the country.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

That is a very interesting. I think that what happened in Qubec was not a fluke. I am sure we'll regain once the leaders debate is behind us and we have a new leader. I truly believe there has been an important shift in Quebec. Any thoughts folks?

janfromthebruce

Actually Arthur I don't think there has been an important shift happen in Quebec. But that is the way I see it. I think there is MSM really pushing a viewpoint against the NDP and because our top members are on the leadership trail, and the MSM is not following that, it's created a void where the MSM can create a message.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Anybody know if any more polls are due out prior to the NDP convention?

pcml

Arthur Cramer wrote:

That is a very interesting. I think that what happened in Qubec was not a fluke. I am sure we'll regain once the leaders debate is behind us and we have a new leader. I truly believe there has been an important shift in Quebec. Any thoughts folks?


You do not like my thoughts and so I will just say I disagree and that the shift that happened if any is that the Bloc died and the liberals will like a separated wife soon chase the younger interloping new girlfriend away 

Interested Observer Interested Observer's picture

pcml wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

That is a very interesting. I think that what happened in Qubec was not a fluke. I am sure we'll regain once the leaders debate is behind us and we have a new leader. I truly believe there has been an important shift in Quebec. Any thoughts folks?


You do not like my thoughts and so I will just say I disagree and that the shift that happened if any is that the Bloc died and the liberals will like a separated wife soon chase the younger interloping new girlfriend away 

The Bloc is far from dead.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

@pcml:

Whatever.

Stockholm

Here are the full results from that Forum poll from last week. As I suspected, while the NDP has lost ground in Quebec, support is stable at 24% in Ontario and we are doing gang-busters in BC, Prairies and Atlantic Canada!

I tell you Turmel-mania is sweeping English Canada!!!

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2012/02/ndp-up-in-bc-down-in-quebe...

janfromthebruce

I love when you tell us all that Turmel-mania is sweeping English Canada - I know I laugh at myself getting caught up in MSM spin the pols!

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

pcml wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

That is a very interesting. I think that what happened in Qubec was not a fluke. I am sure we'll regain once the leaders debate is behind us and we have a new leader. I truly believe there has been an important shift in Quebec. Any thoughts folks?


You do not like my thoughts and so I will just say I disagree and that the shift that happened if any is that the Bloc died and the liberals will like a separated wife soon chase the younger interloping new girlfriend away 

Your, er, sexual politics are JUST what the Liberals need.  Sheesh!

Stockholm

There is a new CROP poll on Quebec in La Presse and it is somewhat good news. It appears that the NDP erosion in Quebec has bottomed out and the NDP is still solidly in first place in Quebec:

NDP - 31%

BQ - 24%

Tories - 22%

Liberals - 20%

Bookish Agrarian

Really, let's put this in perspective.  The NDP has been accused of diving in the polls in Quebec.  Even a term like bottoming out suggests this. But the NDP is at EFFIN 31% in Quebec and in first place.  Say that a year ago and all of us would have been laughing at the absurdity.  

Brachina

Bookish Agrarian wrote:

Really, let's put this in perspective.  The NDP has been accused of diving in the polls in Quebec.  Even a term like bottoming out suggests this. But the NDP is at EFFIN 31% in Quebec and in first place.  Say that a year ago and all of us would have been laughing at the absurdity.  

Excellent point, the problem is is that the pundits look just at May 2 and beyond, they don't compare it to the NDPs historic numbers. By 2010 standards 31 percent was way beyond expectations, compare it to 2000 and people would be shitting themselves.

nicky

We would lose about twenty seats in Quebec if this poll is correct, maybe more. Our vote is relatively evenly spread and quite inefficient if we drop much below the 42% we got in May.

Each of the other parties, in contrast, have geographical concentrations and are each ahead of where they were in May. The Bloq wd be our main opponent in French speking Quebec, particularly outside Montreal. The Conservatives stand to wrest a number of seats back from us in the Quebec City region and the Liberals in the West Island. The NDP will have to fight a three-front war in Quebec and the results may not be pretty.

Although the CROP poll is somewhat better than some recent polls it is certainly no ground either for complacency nor for the misguided notion that we will carry Quebec regardless of what leader we elect.

NorthReport

Thanks Stock.

It shows the NDP with more than 50% above the support for the Liberals, who are in 4th place, and heading for the trashheap, which confirms what I have thought what might be happening to the Liberals in Quebec.

Stockholm

nicky wrote:

Although the CROP poll is somewhat better than some recent polls it is certainly no ground either for complacency nor for the misguided notion that we will carry Quebec regardless of what leader we elect.

No one is suggesting that...for all we know a lot of people in Quebec have started to tune in (a bit) to the leadership contest and they may have read that Mulcair is the frontrunner and so they may be already assuming that the NDP will be led by him.

NorthReport

Why isn't Nanos releasing a poll now - well we all know why, he's trying to protect Harper's scandal ridden government.!!!

nicky

I've just looked at the numbers. Applying the CROP results on a straight swing, The NDP wd lose 24 seats , the Cons gain 8, the Bloq 10 and the liberals 6.

The overall Quebec result wd be: NDP 35, Bloq 14, Cons 13 and Liberals 13.

So instead of having to make up about 60 seats in the ROC to overtake the Cons the NDP wd have to make up about 100. And that is on the present redistribution which is much less favourable to the Cons than the future one will be..

Ippurigakko

quebec dont fault but you need more vote in ontario they r over 100 mps! they need more ndp like 80. 73 conservative is big!

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Well Nicky, we might lose seats but we'd still be OO. But, we haven't picked a leader yet. The fact that we are where we are in Qubec is encouraging. Overall, I am feeling better.

socialdemocrati...

We keep most (but certainly not all) of our seats if we stay north of 30%. There's some smoke, but no fire yet. Considering the way the media has been heaping praise onto Bob Rae, and ignoring our candidates and interim leader, I'd say we're doing okay. Also keep in mind that even in the worst election, polls are capable of moving within a range of 5%, so as long as we maintain some lead we can likely expand it if our leader is a great campaigner.

Debater

Bloc Quebecois back in first place in Quebec, followed by Liberals. NDP 3rd

Quebec Forum poll:

Bloc (29%)

Liberals (26%)

NDP (22%)

Conservative (17%)

Green party (4%)

 

https://twitter.com/#!/Alex_Panetta/status/174189405995667456

NorthReport

More polling nonsense - what is their track record in Quebec?

 

Stockholm

I don't think Forum has ever polled in Quebec before...and the same poll on provincial politics gives the PQ a mamoth lead - which totally flies in the face of every other survey in Quebec recently. Also, the poll asked a bunch of questions about sovereignty and Quebec's place in canada etc... I think its fair to say that when you ask about federal politics right after a bunch of questions about sovereignty vs. the status quo etc... you tend to bring people back to the old sovereignist vs. federalist polarizations.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Sorry Debater, I don't buy it. Really, can't you contribute more to this discussion then "hey look, we Libs are back and you guys are where you belong"? Its insulting you know, and not becoming of someone who professes education as a lawyer. I would expect you would know better, or at the very least, be a little more gentlemanly, especially since you accused me of "acting like a frat boy". People in glass houses, you know what I mean?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Oh, and one other thing Debater, the NDP is going to form the next government, and you guys will still be the third party in the House. So, get used to the idea now. It'll make the outcome later easier for you to take.

Debater

AC, why do you have to overreact to everything?  Can't you just calmly think about the poll?

Obviously no one poll is significant.  The point is simply that there is fluidity in Quebec right now at both the provincial and federal level, and that parties that didn't have a chance before, now do.  The PQ now has a shot at winning provincially, and the Liberals and the BQ have a chance at a comeback federally.  Whether that happens, who knows?  That's all people are saying.  Chantal Hébert recently wrote a column saying the Liberals may do well in Quebec if the PQ makes a comeback and starts up the federalist/separatist divide again.

Finally, your boastful comments about how the NDP is guaranteed to be #1 and the Liberals are going to be stuck at #3 is a problem for 2 reasons:

1.  It makes the NDP sound very arrogant and entitled.

2.  It doesn't take into account how ruthless Stephen Harper is and the fact that no party may be able to stop him.

Idealistic Prag... Idealistic Pragmatist's picture

Debater wrote:

Finally, your boastful comments about how the NDP is guaranteed to be #1 and the Liberals are going to be stuck at #3 is a problem for 2 reasons:

1.  It makes the NDP sound very arrogant and entitled.

2.  It doesn't take into account how ruthless Stephen Harper is and the fact that no party may be able to stop him.

For once, I agree with Debater on this. It's waaaaay too soon to try to predict what's going to happen in the next election, and pretending we can do so with any success (in any direction) just makes the predicter look foolish (or arrogant).

Of course, that goes for people trying to assign meaning to polls taken this far out, too....

nicky

Arthur I think we established long ago that Debater isn't really a practicing lawyer. He may be something like a paralegal. His misdescription of his occupation may reflect his proensity to be disingenuous on other toics.

BUT, Forum Research, although relatively new to polling was pretty accurate in both the federal and Ontario elections. It may have detected a Quebec trend shown to a lesser extent in other recent polls.

The bottom line is that our support in Quebec is soft and may erode disasterously is we choose our leader unwisely. Those people who complacntly assert that Quebec will be there for us whoever we pick are not living in the real world.

nicky

Arthur I think we established long ago that Debater isn't really a practicing lawyer. He may be something like a paralegal. His misdescription of his occupation may reflect his propensity to be disingenuous on other toics.

BUT, Forum Research, although relatively new to polling was pretty accurate in both the federal and Ontario elections. It may have detected a Quebec trend shown to a lesser extent in other recent polls.

The bottom line is that our support in Quebec is soft and may erode disasterously is we choose our leader unwisely. Those people who complacntly assert that Quebec will be there for us whoever we pick are not living in the real world.

Debater

nicky, your comments are out of line.  It is not appropriate for you to make personal attacks on me or speculate on my profession since you don't even know me personally.  I've never done that to you.  I am a lawyer, not that it has any relevance to you.  I think the moderators will agree.  And I am no more 'disingenuous' here than anyone else.

I didn't even post anything in my original post other than copying and pasting directly from Alexander Panetta's comments on the polls.

nicky

Debater, I m referring to something you posted about a year ago admitting that you do not practice law. 

Many honourable peole do not, so what are you upset about?

Debater

Nicky, what does this have to do with anything on this topic?  I am not practicing law at the moment because I am in policy work, but I am a licensed lawyer.

This is a polling thread.  So what does my individual professional life have to do with it?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Oh, and one other thing, Nicky was trying to defend you. Why you would want to go after him is beyond me.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Nicky, I hear what you are saying, but I simply have a hard time dealing with Debater.

Debater, most of the time when you come on here, if not all the time, you do do so to rub our faces in the latest poll, or when you want us to commiserate with you over the latest injustice suffered by a Liberal or the Lib party. As to being told that I shouldn't be arrogant, that is really rich. This is coming from the same guy, you, who posted in a thread that you were the only being objecticve. Then you have the audacitiy to compound it by telling me that the NDP is being arrogant. This is coming from the same guy, you again, whose party self adopted the title "Canada's Natural Governning Party". There are plenty of other examples that I could provide regarding Lib arrogance, but I think you get the drift.

But the thing that really got me was your audacity calling me a "Frat Boy". I am never going to get over that insult. And, you have never have apologized for making such a completely, "over-the-top comment" like that. And I have news for you Mister, I never met a "frat boy" type in my 25 years in the Navy. Simply, those guys are takers, and you'll never see them rise to any call  to national service.

So don't lecture me on what I am or I am not. I am completely sick of it. And as to the NDP being arrogant, I say it again Debater, "people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones". You want to dish it out, fine, but don't complain when you get it back.

Brachina

nicky wrote:

Arthur I think we established long ago that Debater isn't really a practicing lawyer. He may be something like a paralegal. His misdescription of his occupation may reflect his propensity to be disingenuous on other toics.

BUT, Forum Research, although relatively new to polling was pretty accurate in both the federal and Ontario elections. It may have detected a Quebec trend shown to a lesser extent in other recent polls.

The bottom line is that our support in Quebec is soft and may erode disasterously is we choose our leader unwisely. Those people who complacntly assert that Quebec will be there for us whoever we pick are not living in the real world.

Agreed. Isn't it the same poll that,said 58 percent of Quebecers would support Mulcair as NDP leader? From around 20 to nearly 60 is a massive jump and would put us right back into the game from day one after the leadership.

Charles

As a mere reader here can I request we not attack/speculate/personally malign people's personal lives/professions/etc here? Sometimes Debator can be insufferable with his Liberal boosting but you know what - this is an on-line discusion forum and that's his right, just as it is the right of so many more of us to be equally insufferable in our NDP or Green boosting. Irritating postings or even posters are part of the territory. If we don't like it, let's not read those posts. If there are folks who would jump at the chance to read occasional Liberal crowing over the occasional poll or the like, then they have posts they can read and enjoy. I'd prefer to see us engage on these issues - if there's a poll that looks out of whack with other polling we've seen, let's talk about that instead of going after a poster because we don't cotton to his demeanor or political leanings (and I write this as someone who has a hate-on for the Liberal Party of Canada that burns with the heat of a thousand suns)...

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Well that is a reasonable thing to ask Charles, but very hard to do. I don't like having sand kicked in my face, but I think you really make a sound case. It is a touch thing that you are asking. As I said above, I don't like being pushed around or having my faced rubbed in it, and I didn't like being insulted in such a demeaning, and contemptuous way. But, I'll give it a try and I really appreciate your reminding at least me that we need to try always act like adults first.

Cheers!

flight from kamakura

that's a pretty scary poll, and may well be an outlier.

adma

How "fresh" is the poll, anyway?  I seem to have heard about a NDP-in-third poll maybe a couple of weeks ago if not more...

Bärlüer

The poll was conducted on Feb 23rd.

JKR

A trend to watch may be the popularity of federalism in Quebec. If federalism starts losing popularity in Quebec, both the PQ and BQ could gain popularity at the expense of their political adversaries.

Stockholm

There is a new poll from Ekos for the first time in a year. It shows that the Tories are way down from a year ago and within the margin of error of the NDP

CPC - 31.5%

NDP - 29.2%

Libs - 21.7%

BQ - 6.0% (25% in Quebec)

as usual with Ekos they drastically overestimate support for Green (8.3%) and Other (3.3%) - this is almost 12%. in the 2011 election Green and Other barely got over 4% nationwide.

The NDP numbers are stellar everywhere...leading in BC and Atlantic, strong second in Ontario and Man/Sask (its that TURMEL-MANIA!)...they have the NDP leading in Quebec at 28% - but no one is really picking up the slack...the BQ, Liberals, Tories, Greens and "Other"s are each up a couple of points from May. Its worth noting that if the NDP was still at 42% in Quebec, it would be in first place nationally!

 

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_march_2_2012.pdf

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Great numbers! Thanks for sharing this Stock.

clambake

If that's accurate, then its fantastic, especially with Turmel at the helm (though having the CONS at the top of any poll still baffles me). The data makes it seem like the Tories lost support to the Greens

clambake

Though what should we make of the drastic differences in Quebec polling numbers? EKOS still has the NDP with a comfortable lead...

Idealistic Prag... Idealistic Pragmatist's picture

There's a part of me that would rather hear that the NDP and the Tories were in a near-statistical tie because support for the NDP had just gone up that much, but to be honest, at this point what we really need is for the support for the Tories to go down. So yeah, this is a very good thing. And apparently it isn't even showing any "Robocon" effects yet...

Idealistic Prag... Idealistic Pragmatist's picture

There's a part of me that would rather hear that the NDP and the Tories were in a near-statistical tie because support for the NDP had just gone up that much, but to be honest, at this point what we really need is for the support for the Tories to go down. So yeah, this is a very good thing. And apparently it isn't even showing any "Robocon" effects yet...

Ippurigakko

Alberta cons is down to 53% from 66% last election and ndp 20% from 16%

National cons is down to 31% from 39%

 

Cons will be duper super drops like 1993 next election reason robocalls etc

cant wait?!

Idealistic Prag... Idealistic Pragmatist's picture

Ippurigakko wrote:

Alberta cons is down to 53% from 66% last election and ndp 20% from 16%

Yeah, some of the other numbers in the poll are admittedly more impressive, but the NDP at 20% in Alberta makes my heart race! If that number is actually correct and we're at 20% province-wide, I can only imagine what the numbers must look like in Edmonton. Laughing

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