Latest Polling Thread - March 5, 2012

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NorthReport
Latest Polling Thread - March 5, 2012

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NorthReport

Looking forward to the end of this leadership race and having a permanent leader.

 

Having the NDP back in the saddle with their new leader which will inevitably result in the NDP rebounding in the polls.

Debater

One has to keep in mind that a new permanent NDP leader will not 'inevitably' result in an increase for the NDP.  It depends upon who the new leader is and whether or not that person can be successful.

If it is going to be Thomas Mulcair, who is the person I suspect will be the winner, it could end up leading to a decrease for the NDP for 2 reasons.  One is that many in the Canadian press dislike Mulcair and have made no secret of the fact that they intend to go after him, and the second is that there are some who think he could harm the NDP outside of Quebec.

So it will be interesting to see whether or not the NDP is affected by these factors.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I just looked at Eric Grenier's "analysis" at threehunderdeight.com. Sorry Eric, don't buy it. As a matter of fact, I never have. And as to "there are some who think he could harm the NDP  outside of Quebec", all I can say is "there are some who say NASA never landed on the moon". Just because allegeldy people have an opinion doesn't mean anything other then the fact they have an opinion. As my wife always say when she hears "they say", her reply is "they, three guys in a bar in Newfoundland"!

NorthReport
Debater

Slightly biased pro-Conservative headline?  The Conservatives may not be collapsing, but they're certainly not going up, and appear to have gone down since the last election.

Cons - 35.7 

Liberals -  29.5

New Democrats  -  25 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

As I said, I don't believe it at all. Sorry. Just another Nanos outlier.

Debater

Don't believe what?  Please be more specific.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

You know what I meant.

Debater

No, I don't know exactly.  I can surmise that you are saying that you think the Conservatives are actually lower and the NDP higher, but it's hard to know for sure unless you actually state it.

I already agreed above myself that I think this Conservative number may be on the high side, although it may be about right.  EKOS has the Cons at 31, so 35 for Nanos is not that far off.  Who knows which one is right?  This scandal hasn't been around long enough to cause sufficient damage to the Cons yet, although hopefully that will change!

Mr. Cramer, I would politely suggest one thing:  I know you love the NDP, but you are going to give yourself a heart attack over the next few years if you get upset each time a pollster says something you don't agree with.  As you yourself said above, most political analysis is opinion anyway.  So it's best to relax and not feel the need to jump every time something contrary to our opinions is stated.  Otherwise, the period until the next election could be very stressful. Wink

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I have news for you, I already find this stressful. I wish I could just start ignoring this, but I'm like a guy who can't stop betting on the horses, I can't help myself, Yell I guess I just need more Valum, Laughing, Wink!

Debater

I found the full Nanos poll breakdown on their website:

 

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/2012-02-BallotE.pdf

socialdemocrati...

Nanos has been consistently overpolling the Liberals. Been very out of step with the other polls.

NDP is doing pretty good considering the lack of leadership in Parliament. When the race is over, things will improve instantly regardless of who we pick. And if we're smart, we'll pick someone who can build us steadily upwards til 2015.

knownothing knownothing's picture

Nanos won't be close until the day before the next election,

Debater, you are dreaming if you think the Libs are that high!

Debater

knownothing (interesting nameWink), Nanos conducted the poll, not me.  So please don't make me the focus of the discussion.  Contact Mr. Nanos.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I need more Valium, Wink!

Hunky_Monkey

knownothing wrote:

Nanos won't be close until the day before the next election,

:)

socialdemocrati...

Hey, if you don't believe in the poll, don't post it.

Here's another one from this week.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/03/02/frank-graves-poll-so-where-are-we-in-...

Following the polls is a fool's errand. Probably why the Liberals lost in the first place, because they thought they could govern by polling instead of principle.

Debater

The EKOS poll was posted on the previous thread, I believe.

 

Anyway, there may be signs of underlying damage to the Conservatives from this scandal.

Rosemary Barton just reported on P&P that Forum Research did a poll on the robocalls which shows 39% of Canadians blame the Conservatives, and only 10% blame the Liberals and only 7% blame the NDP.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

SD, you hit the nail on the head regarding this being a "fools errand".

Debater, "there may be signs of underlying damge to the Conservatives". I am hoping you are right, but given this Alberta numbers, I don't know if it really matters. Western Canada is damaged goods right now, and I don't have any idea at all how you fix it.

And I took my Valium and feel better, lol!

ETA: I really honestly don't understand at all how anyone could think the NDP was behind any of this. Sorry very partisan on my part, but its what I feel. I guess Lincoln was right that you can "fool some of the people all of the time". Absurd.

Ippurigakko

FB Poll Questions:

If the NDP leadership race vote were held tomorrow who would your first choice be?

Paul Dewar - 50
Peggy Nash - 38
Nathan Cullen - 21
Niki Ashton - 12
Thomas Mulcair - 8
Brian Topp - 6
Martin Singh - 3

adma

I'm sorry, people, but I wouldn't be so outlier-dismissive of the Nanos poll--even if it did turn out to be an outlier.  (Though I wouldn't use it as a Debater-esque cue to abandon ship for the "strategic" Liberals, either.)

Stockholm

The latest Forum poll of 1,600 Canadians says it is Tories 37%, NDP 28%, Libs 25%...essentially unchanged for three straight months. Interestingly they have the NDP back in first place in Quebec though at just 28%...but they also find that if Mulcair was the new leader, NDP support in Quebec would instantly soar to over 40% (not surprising).

Debater

The question is though, will Mulcair tank the NDP's numbers outside of Québec?

jjuares

Debater wrote:

The question is though, will Mulcair tank the NDP's numbers outside of Québec?

Why would you say this? Because he is from Quebec and the rest of Canada won't vote for a Quebecois? Is that what you really want to imply?   

Doug

I don't see why he would. I don't see him as so vulnerable to a Conservative campaign to define him first as Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff were. What will they craft that message on? They can't say he's inexperienced, they'll have some trouble promoting the idea he's a closet separatist and the idea that he's a dangerous socialist radical out to raise your taxes to infinity is pretty easily countered by the claims of fellow leadership candidates and others that he's the opposite. Also, any advertising or other actions by the Conservatives that are widely seen as underhanded would be *very* bad publicity coming after the Robocalls controversy.

Debater

jjuares wrote:

Debater wrote:

The question is though, will Mulcair tank the NDP's numbers outside of Québec?

Why would you say this? Because he is from Quebec and the rest of Canada won't vote for a Quebecois? Is that what you really want to imply?   

No, not at all.  Don't read things into my posts that aren't there.  The Liberals have elected a record FOUR Prime Ministers from Québec, and are in fact still the only party to elect not just one, but FOUR Francophone Prime Ministers.  (Laurier, St. Laurent, Trudeau & Chrétien).

I am simply pointing out the fact that the Canadian press does not like Mulcair, thinks he has a big ego, and thinks that outside of his base in Québec he may struggle to connect with Canadians as well as Jack Layton did.

Aristotleded24

Debater wrote:
I am simply pointing out the fact that the Canadian press does not like Mulcair, thinks he has a big ego, and thinks that outside of his base in Québec he may struggle to connect with Canadians as well as Jack Layton did.

And about this time last year, the Canadian press was certain that the NDP would lose seats in the upcoming election. How did that one turn out?

Besides, ever since Mulcair was first elected as an NDP MP, the media was saying he would certainly become the next leader after the NDP inevitably lost seats in the next election. Just because those in charge of the media decide something doesn't make it true.

Policywonk

Debater wrote:

jjuares wrote:

Debater wrote:

The question is though, will Mulcair tank the NDP's numbers outside of Québec?

Why would you say this? Because he is from Quebec and the rest of Canada won't vote for a Quebecois? Is that what you really want to imply?   

No, not at all.  Don't read things into my posts that aren't there.  The Liberals have elected a record FOUR Prime Ministers from Québec, and are in fact still the only party to elect not just one, but FOUR Francophone Prime Ministers.  (Laurier, St. Laurent, Trudeau & Chrétien).

I am simply pointing out the fact that the Canadian press does not like Mulcair, thinks he has a big ego, and thinks that outside of his base in Québec he may struggle to connect with Canadians as well as Jack Layton did.

Evidence? This sounds like an opinion, not fact.

Debater

I didn't use the word 'evidence' anywhere on this thread.  Of course it's mainly opinion - that's what most of political analysis and prediction is.  But it's based on what people are talking about and what the previous patterns are.

I'm just reporting what I think the media will do to Mulcair.  Andrew Coyne is already talking about Mulcair's 'big ego' on Twitter today.

And when Don Martin was interviewing Joel-Denis Bellavance earlier this year they basically said that the NDP needs Mulcair if they want to do well in Québec, but they think he may tank in the rest of Canada.

Who knows whether this will happen.  I'm just saying it is a prediction of what COULD happen.

Incidentally, Chantal Hébert has written a column this week on some of the challenges the new NDP faces:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1140841--hebert-ndp-...

Policywonk

Debater wrote:

I didn't use the word 'evidence' anywhere on this thread.  Of course it's mainly opinion - that's what most of political analysis and prediction is.  But it's based on what people are talking about and what the previous patterns are.

I'm just reporting what I think the media will do to Mulcair.  Andrew Coyne is already talking about Mulcair's 'big ego' on Twitter today.

And when Don Martin was interviewing Joel-Denis Bellavance earlier this year they basically said that the NDP needs Mulcair if they want to do well in Québec, but they think he may tank in the rest of Canada.

Who knows whether this will happen.  I'm just saying it is a prediction of what COULD happen.

Incidentally, Chantal Hébert has written a column this week on some of the challenges the new NDP faces:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1140841--hebert-ndp-...

Facts require evidence; you have provided some, but it is hardly conclusive. I was referring to your view as opinion, not fact.

Debater

We're kind of getting off topic, but will the allegations that Mulcair sought a cabinet position from the Conservatives hurt him?

David Young

Sought?

I don't think so.

The Conservatives offered a cabinet post as an incentive to get him to run for them, but he turned them down flat as I recall Tom saying when asked that question at the post-debate gathering in Halifax.

But then, when did Debater bother with facts?

 

DSloth

SPOILER ALERT: Andrew Coyne is going to say mean things about whoever we pick, I wouldn't say it's a certainty to sink the NDP in english speaking Canada. 

DSloth

Debater wrote:

We're kind of getting off topic, but will the allegations that Mulcair sought a cabinet position from the Conservatives hurt him?

Anonymous allegations, five years past their sell by date? No, that story won't outlive the week. 

An attack you can't put in a TV ad without being sued for slander isn't going to get the Conservatives far. 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

DSloth wrote:

SPOILER ALERT: Andrew Coyne is going to say mean things about whoever we pick, I wouldn't say it's a certainty to sink the NDP in english speaking Canada. 

I wish their was a fanned funciton on this site DSloth, I would so fan that comment!Smile

jjuares

As for the Conservative allegations about their offer to Mulcair-they must be true right? Because anonymous conservative "sources" speak nothing but the truth when talking about opposition politicians right? The Conservatives must have some genuine fear in regards to Mulcair.I wonder what their internal polls (or political instincts) are telling them? I mean the Coservatives don't have much to lose in Que.  Of course their whole leaked narrative undermines several attacks that they may want to launch against Mulcair if he wins. It is going to be difficult to portray Mulcair as a bomb throwing Bolshevik in any case. This whole bogus story makes it even more challenging for the Conservatives. I guess they felt it was easier to stop him before he became leader rather than in parliament after. I agree with them on that issue. I have met Mulcair and as someone who has been in the party for almost 40 years, I beleive he is the best candidate.

   

Wilf Day

Debater wrote:

Rosemary Barton just reported on P&P that Forum Research did a poll on the robocalls which shows 39% of Canadians blame the Conservatives, and only 10% blame the Liberals and only 7% blame the NDP.

Great news! The Conservative hard-core vote is only 17%.

autoworker autoworker's picture

Asymmetrical federalism, outside Quebec, is a dead weight for the NDP.

Stockholm

The Conservatives decided that Quebec was a "nation" - how much more of aan acknowledgment of asymmetry can you have? they still swept Canada outside Quebec.

Debater

David Young wrote:

Sought?

I don't think so.

The Conservatives offered a cabinet post as an incentive to get him to run for them, but he turned them down flat as I recall Tom saying when asked that question at the post-debate gathering in Halifax.

But then, when did Debater bother with facts?

 

I was just asking a question based on the media reports.  It's the first time I've asked about it here.  I didn't write the story.  David, you have a tendency to make me the subject of an issue around here.  Seems you don't bother about facts, yourself.  Keep the focus on the story, rather than the person asking about it.

Debater

Angus Reid Public Opinion poll

 

Four-in-five respondents call for an independent investigation to find out who was behind the misleading robocalls made in the 2011 federal ballot.

 

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/44424/most-canadians-think-robocalls-wer...

Debater

Canadians interested in robocall scandal: poll

Nearly half of British Columbians asked want by-elections held in ridings which received misleading calls

 

http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/338299--canadians-interested-...

Stockholm

yay, we can have a byelection in Guelph and the NDP could take it away from the Liberals!

Debater

I assume that's meant as a joke, Stockholm.Wink

Winston

I already posted these in the Leadership thread, but here are the Forum Research numbers released today:

 

Cons/Lib/NDP/Green/BQ/Other/Undec

33/22/25/4/5/1/11

Reportioning undecided:

Cons/Lib/NDP/Green/BQ

37/25/28/4/6

 

Oh...and the following numbers are especially for Debater.  With Mulcair at the helm of the NDP (distributing undecideds):

Cons/Lib/NDP/Green/BQ
33/24/31/8/4

Debater

Let me see if I can re-format that to make it a little more readable: Wink

Cons:  33

NDP:  25

Libs:  22

Reportioning undecided:

Cons:  37

NDP:  28

Libs:  25

Debater

Keep me out of the discussion please, Winston.  Let's just look at the numbers.

But incidentally, Forum tends to underpoll the Liberals and overpoll the NDP.  As for Mulcair, it's pure supposition to predict how he will do before he has even been properly introduced to the Canadian public.

Winston

Debater wrote:

Keep me out of the discussion please, Winston.

Why would I want to keep you out of the discussion?  It's good to have another (Liberal) perspective on things!  Wink  Besides, your formatting is far easier to read than my own!

 

Debater wrote:

But incidentally, Forum tends to underpoll the Liberals and overpoll the NDP.  As for Mulcair, it's pure supposition to predict how he will do before he has even been properly introduced to the Canadian public.

How do you figure they underpoll the Liberals?  They were one of the last to show the Orange Crush (and Liberal collapse), and tend to show numbers (in Quebec, at least) that are much, much higher than any of the others.

As for Mulcair, I think he has been properly introduced to the Canadian public over the last several years, and it appears they like what they see!!!  I know that many Liberals wish that he was one of them!  Laughing  

 

Brachina

Wilf Day wrote:

Debater wrote:

Rosemary Barton just reported on P&P that Forum Research did a poll on the robocalls which shows 39% of Canadians blame the Conservatives, and only 10% blame the Liberals and only 7% blame the NDP.

Great news! The Conservative hard-core vote is only 17%.

I find it baffling that 7% think the NDP is responsible, what the hell have these people been smoking.

Brachina

Debater wrote:

Canadians interested in robocall scandal: poll

Nearly half of British Columbians asked want by-elections held in ridings which received misleading calls

 

http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/338299--canadians-interested-...

I bet when you take out non voters that total is closer to 60% want a bielection.

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