NDP #15

1097 posts / 0 new
Last post
Brachina

The media is attacking Mulcair's position on oil using Dix's political corpse with which to beat him with. This is a disaster and its totally unfair to Mulcair because his approach to natural resources is different and he didn't run the BC campaign, Dix did, but Mulcair will take the beating for it.

Brachina

If Dix doesn't resign it will look sexist given Carole James got booted with better results. Double Standard.

gadar

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

Job creation is definitely the top priority, and the most important message to win in 2015. (But I don't think the BC election can be attributed to a lack of focus on jobs.)

BC election can, among other things, be attributed to a lack of focus on the opponent's record.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

knownothing wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Dix is not the problem his party is.  They gave no one outside the party faithful a good reason to vote for them. The only people who voted for them are diehards like us. The BC party is controlled by the same people that controlled it 15 years ago and they keep making the same mistakes over and over again. It is a very tightly controlled party with little room for any grassroots initiatives.

Sounds like the SNDP

The NDP as a whole is getting like this; look who the National President is.

janfromthebruce

I don't see a wide number of the population fighting for nor yearning for "socialism". And by the looks of the election outcome in B.C. the fear of the party doing radical socialism, where the BC Lib smear machine and their corporate MSM lackies, ensured that voters should be beware.

mark_alfred

I didn't really follow the BC election.  But from what I read it sounds like the Conservative vote collapsed and went to the Liberals.  Given that, it hardly lends credence to the position that the NDP need to run more hardline left to win.  It also raises questions about whether proportional representation would lead to a better result federally or provincially.  Seems Conservative and Liberal voters outnumber NDP voters, even in provinces that currently have NDP governments in place.  I think last election would have been Layton's except for the fact that a lot of Liberal voters went Conservative in Ontario.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The NDP has lost votes in the last two elections. That is not just percentages that is less people voted for them in each of the last two elections.  They tailored the platform to speak to middle class voters who are tired of corrupt Liberals and they have failed to convince any of them to vote for the party. Instead their own voters are so bored they stay at home.  The youth in this province don't vote because they are smart enough to see that there is little difference between the parties and none of them are going to do anything to address their concerns. 

The party can either present a platform that appeals to the people who don't vote or they can continue banging their heads against the brick wall that is the middle class vote while waiting for another right wing party to arise that will win at least 15% of the vote.In the meantime the only party with momentum in the province is the Green party and it will soon have a dynamic new leader with a presence in the legislature.

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

kropotkin1951 wrote:

The NDP has lost votes in the last two elections. That is not just percentages that is less people voted for them in each of the last two elections.  They tailored the platform to speak to middle class voters who are tired of corrupt Liberals and they have failed to convince any of them to vote for the party. Instead their own voters are so bored they stay at home.  The youth in this province don't vote because they are smart enough to see that there is little difference between the parties and none of them are going to do anything to address their concerns. 

The party can either present a platform that appeals to the people who don't vote or they can continue banging their heads against the brick wall that is the middle class vote while waiting for another right wing party to arise that will win at least 15% of the vote.In the meantime the only party with momentum in the province is the Green party and it will soon have a dynamic new leader with a presence in the legislature.

 

This is true Federally as well K. The NDP has a number of exciting young MPs. They need to sent out and be seen.

Malcontent

I think though the NDP in Canada is finished.  They will never win federally with that dud Muclair who some in the media have framed as a Quebecor first, Manitoba they will lose next time and Nova Scotia.  In a couple years no NDP governments in Canada from the looks of it.   They will not win in Ontario again (Bob Rae), In Sask Bob Wall and Alberta oil money got him elected and he is not going anywhere soon. In BC I doubt they will ever 'win' again. The 3 times they won in BC have been by default due to right being split. Now with the Greens improving and no more competition ion the right to split the vote it is grim in BC. As well the last two elections they could of won but ran piss poor campaigns both times.

A lot of it too is the corporate media, low info voters who vote for people because they go to their church or have a nice smile without looking at issues but yet these uninformed people know everything about the Hockey team and various reality TV.

NorthReport

The media was suggesting there would be problems for Mulcair if Dix won. Now that Dix lost Mulcair will be attacked for that as well.

What has fairness got to do with politics-seriously!

The NDP is the enemy of Corporate Canada and their mainstream press puppets - what is not to understand here?

Brachina wrote:

The media is attacking Mulcair's position on oil using Dix's political corpse with which to beat him with. This is a disaster and its totally unfair to Mulcair because his approach to natural resources is different and he didn't run the BC campaign, Dix did, but Mulcair will take the beating for it.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Dix's views on oil and pipelines is now irrelevant. They lost and the Liberals have a new four year dictatorship. The ball is clearly in the federal court. The local NDP MP's so far seem to be opposed to Kinder Morgan and definitely the party also seems to be opposing the Northern Gateway. Then there is the international trade of low grade coal that they want to export out of Delta.  Those are all issues the federal NDP needs to take principled stances on.  I sincerely hope that the principle they base their policy on is climate change and not winning the most votes. 

Brachina
mark_alfred

Some thoughts from Mulcair (as reported in the Star) on the BC election.  link

Brachina

mark_alfred wrote:

Some thoughts from Mulcair (as reported in the Star) on the BC election.  link

Mulcair sums most of it up dead on and its good to know he's on top of the situation.

theleftyinvestor

I'm sure an automatic leadership review will happen at the next BC convention anyway, but they can obviously vote to keep Dix.

However a staff review definitely needs to take place. Brian Topp has proven his solid credentials at running campaigns that will come in second place. Unfortunately that is not what Dix was aiming for.

Brachina

theleftyinvestor wrote:

I'm sure an automatic leadership review will happen at the next BC convention anyway, but they can obviously vote to keep Dix.

However a staff review definitely needs to take place. Brian Topp has proven his solid credentials at running campaigns that will come in second place. Unfortunately that is not what Dix was aiming for.

Ouch dude that was cruel.

Actually hope he goes back to writing for the Globe and Mail, I miss his columns and thier are far too few NDP bloggers right now compared to Liberal and Tory bloggers. One just quit today. We need the voice he can provide and his unique position makes him too tasty for even the rightwing globe to reject.

Aristotleded24

Brachina wrote:

theleftyinvestor wrote:

I'm sure an automatic leadership review will happen at the next BC convention anyway, but they can obviously vote to keep Dix.

However a staff review definitely needs to take place. Brian Topp has proven his solid credentials at running campaigns that will come in second place. Unfortunately that is not what Dix was aiming for.

Ouch dude that was cruel. Actually hope he goes back to writing for the Globe and Mail, I miss his columns and thier are far too few NDP bloggers right now compared to Liberal and Tory bloggers. One just quit today. We need the voice he can provide and his unique position makes him too tasty for even the rightwing globe to reject.

Agreed. I think Topp's strengths are much more suited to that kind of endeavour than the daily routine of meeting with the public and winning them over.

Brachina

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Brachina wrote:

theleftyinvestor wrote:

I'm sure an automatic leadership review will happen at the next BC convention anyway, but they can obviously vote to keep Dix.

However a staff review definitely needs to take place. Brian Topp has proven his solid credentials at running campaigns that will come in second place. Unfortunately that is not what Dix was aiming for.

Ouch dude that was cruel. Actually hope he goes back to writing for the Globe and Mail, I miss his columns and thier are far too few NDP bloggers right now compared to Liberal and Tory bloggers. One just quit today. We need the voice he can provide and his unique position makes him too tasty for even the rightwing globe to reject.

Agreed. I think Topp's strengths are much more suited to that kind of endeavour than the daily routine of meeting with the public and winning them over.

As an insider I'd like his insight into what went wrong. I went and read his tweets, he made some jabs at the Liberals, it was Brian who encouraged Jack to take a shot at iggy. I don't think Brian was the one who wanted to try for such a saintly campaign. I think it come from Dix. Brian was too fiesty during his own leadership race.

Its sad Brian pays the price for Dix's mistake.

janfromthebruce

theleftyinvestor wrote:

I'm sure an automatic leadership review will happen at the next BC convention anyway, but they can obviously vote to keep Dix.

However a staff review definitely needs to take place. Brian Topp has proven his solid credentials at running campaigns that will come in second place. Unfortunately that is not what Dix was aiming for.

Yeah, it was horrible how Topp ensured the NDP came Official Opposition federally the FIRST TIME EVER. Yeah, that was so weak of Topp. I'm sorry about that was just so rich.

And I'm with B on his thoughts - Topp is feisty.

Remember, we don't have all the insider information in on the ground. So we had Toronto Mayor Ford's campaign manager working for Clark as well as key communication people from the ONtario McGuinty Libs - how about lots of dirty campaign strategies going on in "select ridings". I saw those in Ontario elections.

However, it's darn hard to fight against big money interests and all corporate media and dirty campaigns.

mark_alfred

Unlike the BC NDP, the federal NDP has never said it would not run attack ads.  The federal NDP already has run attack ads, and has an attack website up (see http://senatehallofshame.ca/).  Interestingly, only the Trudeau Liberals have put on the saintly straight-jacket of not running attack ads and campaigning on themes like "change".  That's something that can appeal to people, but it's very fragile, and usually represents a strong protest vote rather than a vote for power.  For the NDP, it's "Leadership.  Experience".  I expect the federal NDP will present a policy based campaign and will not be shy about attacking its opponents.

janfromthebruce

With Duffy scandal, NDP finds its footing

I linked through N. Spector tweet but I do so want to copy and paste from the G & M

But as it stands today, the only party with any credible claim to clean hands and a real reform agenda in Ottawa is the NDP. Conservatives has been collectively spinning overtime for a week – a lifetime in politics – with little to show for it except the ruin of Nigel Wright’s political career.

If the Conservative government was looking for a way to completely discredit the Senate as part of its master plan to abolish it, then we could see some method to the madness. From the perspective of most Canadians, however, the NDP’s message is much more on target: the Conservative party has been using the Senate for patronage in the same way as parties of the past [edit to say as liberal and Progressive Conservative parties...], and for all of the government’s bluster about righteousness, there are some serious ethical issues at play here. In the Senate, it has failed to make sure that every one of its caucus members read and follow the rule-book; and it has failed to reassure Canadians that the inner sanctum of the PMO is functioning as it should.

snip

On the other side of the aisle, the silence from the Liberal party is, in a word, deafening. On clean hands and Senate reform, there is no new Liberal face – especially one with an old name like Trudeau – that is going to be able to take a firm stand on either matter. [same old same old]

As also suggested, on this particular issue, with the Con govt in a mess as never before, "the NDP has a real opportunity to turn that around."

last para

In Quebec, the NDP was able to ride a wave that had everything to do with a trustworthy image of sweeping the house clean; it may now be at a crucial moment where it can extend that image to enough of the rest of Canada to finally make its mark.

author Antonia Maioni is an associate professor at McGill University and president of the Federation for the Humanities and Social Sciences.

If one strolls down memory lane Trudeau Sr. as his last act of bevelance before his walk into sunset was patronage and evokes this famous line which ended the liberal dynasty: You had an option, sir

phrase used by Brian Mulroney against John Turner during the English-language leaders debate in the 1984 Canadian federal election. The exchange is considered one of the great "knockout blows" in the history of Canadian political debate.

snip

The campaign is best remembered for Mulroney's attacks on a raft of Liberal patronage appointments. In his final days in office, Trudeau had controversially appointed a flurry of senators, judges, and executives on various governmental and crown corporation boards. This was widely seen as a way to offer "plum jobs" to long-time Liberals loyal to the Trudeau-Chrétien faction of the party.

However, the appointments were not finalized prior to Mr. Trudeau's leaving office. The new prime minister, Mr. Turner, therefore had the right to recommend that Governor-General Jeanne Sauvé cancel the appointments—advice that Sauvé would have been obligated to follow in accordance with Canadian constitutional practice. However, such a move would almost certainly have further alienated the Trudeau-Chrétien faction of the Liberal Party, something Turner's advisors believed the party could not risk provoking on the eve of an election. Despite overwhelming pressure for Turner to scuttle the appointments, he refused to do so. Instead, he proceeded to appoint several more Liberals to prominent political offices. Turner cited a written agreement which would see Trudeau retire early in return for the appointments being made.[1]

So who wants to open wide that curtain to reveal TRUDEAU SENIOR'S USE OF TAXPAYER'S PERKS!

janfromthebruce

Abolition will be “at minimum extraordinarily difficult,” said Craig Scott, NDP critic for democratic reform. “Then the question becomes: When do massive changes occur in society? They occur when there is a historic moment when not just elites are ready for it, but the people are ready for it. And I think on this one, if we have a popular threshold that’s been crossed, where average Canadians are just so fed up, they’ve begun to understand that these ethical scandals are not just about individual ethics, but about, let’s call it, structures in culture related to the Senate. Then all of those things can come together and we’d have something resembling a social movement, or at least a social consensus. Without that, it would be almost impossible to abolish.”

“I think Canadians are getting there,” he said.

So is this time for the elites and commoners join hands and "say enough already" and put a fork in it?

Despite Stephen Harper’s rhetoric, abolishing the Senate is practically impossible

 

Brachina

 Even Senator Hugh Segal is saying we need to have a referendum on it.

 

 PS when Harper gets defeated I'd love to see Hugh Segal as the next leader of the Tories.

socialdemocrati...

I find it a little comical when the legalistic types say that abolishing the senate isn't the real issue. If reforming the country isn't the issue, then what is? Replacing blue senators with red senators?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

theleftyinvestor wrote:

I'm sure an automatic leadership review will happen at the next BC convention anyway, but they can obviously vote to keep Dix.

However a staff review definitely needs to take place. Brian Topp has proven his solid credentials at running campaigns that will come in second place. Unfortunately that is not what Dix was aiming for.

I've kind of been wondering if Topp, remembering that the federal NDP tends to do badly in B.C. in elections held right after a provincial NDP government was elected there, deliberately threw spanners into the works in order to prevent Mulcair from having to campaign in 2015 with B.C. being governed by (a by then almost certainly discredited and permanently unpopular)Premier Adrian Dix.

mark_alfred

I doubt that.  I'm pretty sure the hope was that the NDP could be seen to be competent managers of one of the larger provincial economies in recent times, thus proving to doubters that the NDP has the experience and know how to successfully manage a large economy in a more environmentally pragmatic way.  The loss in BC prevents there being this comparison.

NorthReport
janfromthebruce

Ken Burch wrote:

theleftyinvestor wrote:

I'm sure an automatic leadership review will happen at the next BC convention anyway, but they can obviously vote to keep Dix.

However a staff review definitely needs to take place. Brian Topp has proven his solid credentials at running campaigns that will come in second place. Unfortunately that is not what Dix was aiming for.

I've kind of been wondering if Topp, remembering that the federal NDP tends to do badly in B.C. in elections held right after a provincial NDP government was elected there, deliberately threw spanners into the works in order to prevent Mulcair from having to campaign in 2015 with B.C. being governed by (a by then almost certainly discredited and permanently unpopular)Premier Adrian Dix.

That is way over the top and defamatory of Topp. In other words, a load of crap.

jerrym

janfromthebruce wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

theleftyinvestor wrote:

I'm sure an automatic leadership review will happen at the next BC convention anyway, but they can obviously vote to keep Dix.

However a staff review definitely needs to take place. Brian Topp has proven his solid credentials at running campaigns that will come in second place. Unfortunately that is not what Dix was aiming for.

I've kind of been wondering if Topp, remembering that the federal NDP tends to do badly in B.C. in elections held right after a provincial NDP government was elected there, deliberately threw spanners into the works in order to prevent Mulcair from having to campaign in 2015 with B.C. being governed by (a by then almost certainly discredited and permanently unpopular)Premier Adrian Dix.

That is way over the top and defamatory of Topp. In other words, a load of crap.

I have never been a fan of Brian Topp and I do not think he did a good job during the BC election, but this kind of conspiracy theory should be flushed down the sewer like all other insane conspiracy theories. 

NorthReport

Easy, easy!

No one has the full handle on the truth.

-------------------------------------------

 

 

ttp://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/05/29/john-ivison-stephen-harper-making-things-worse-for-himself-with-silence-over-mike-duffy/

janfromthebruce

As for Topp running campaigns for 2nd - yeah, the first time every the NDP came 2nd federally and some how that is crap. I'm just blown away.

addictedtomyipod

Arthur Cramer wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

The NDP has lost votes in the last two elections. That is not just percentages that is less people voted for them in each of the last two elections.  They tailored the platform to speak to middle class voters who are tired of corrupt Liberals and they have failed to convince any of them to vote for the party. Instead their own voters are so bored they stay at home.  The youth in this province don't vote because they are smart enough to see that there is little difference between the parties and none of them are going to do anything to address their concerns. 

The party can either present a platform that appeals to the people who don't vote or they can continue banging their heads against the brick wall that is the middle class vote while waiting for another right wing party to arise that will win at least 15% of the vote.In the meantime the only party with momentum in the province is the Green party and it will soon have a dynamic new leader with a presence in the legislature.

 

This is true Federally as well K. The NDP has a number of exciting young MPs. They need to sent out and be seen.

The Green Party garnered 8.13% of the BC election vote.  Hardly ready to govern the province.  They did manage to get a large portion of the Liberal vote to elect Andrew Weaver as he supported the Liberals in 2009.  Maybe this is the new right wing party that will split the vote to let the left govern again.

theleftyinvestor

janfromthebruce wrote:

As for Topp running campaigns for 2nd - yeah, the first time every the NDP came 2nd federally and some how that is crap. I'm just blown away.

Not saying it's crap. Just that maybe what he brought to the federal campaign under Layton, a 4th party that moved up to 2nd, was not the right skill set for moving 2nd up to 1st under Dix.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I think the whole campaign was done very poorly and there is blame enough to go around.  One of the big differences between the last federal campaign and the BC campaign is the attack ads.  The Conservatives did little to target the fourth place NDP because they were not a threat. As the main threat in BC the NDP was not only attacked during the election but the business community ran attack ads for months before the election even started.

janfromthebruce

theleftyinvestor wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

As for Topp running campaigns for 2nd - yeah, the first time every the NDP came 2nd federally and some how that is crap. I'm just blown away.

Not saying it's crap. Just that maybe what he brought to the federal campaign under Layton, a 4th party that moved up to 2nd, was not the right skill set for moving 2nd up to 1st under Dix.

okay now that made sense. Thanks for correcting my interpretation of your comment. Sorry.

And I do remember the Cons attacking the NDP, especially in the last week of the election when they really became aware that the NDP might eat their breakfast. They did at least one ad but it was of very poor quality.

Having said that, one does remember the attacks in the fear mongering that the NDP could win here so better vote conservative and liberal, for those right leaning liberals. It worked like a charm and it was actually shown by pundit's guide that how the cons won was done by "blue liberals" shifting their vote to cons and not where libs shifted to NDP.

Remember the Libs like to blame the NDP for the Harper majority but in fact it wasn't left leaning voters who shifted as much as right leaning lib voters who shifted. Lib supporters and their operatives still like to "spin" that crap.

theleftyinvestor

janfromthebruce wrote:

 okay now that made sense. Thanks for correcting my interpretation of your comment. Sorry.

To be fair, there was some degree of snark in there but I can see how it would be read as worse. 

One could also take the alternative interpretation: If Topp + Layton = breakthrough, and Topp + Dix = decline/stagnant, perhaps we are overstating Topp's role in both outcomes.

janfromthebruce wrote:
Remember the Libs like to blame the NDP for the Harper majority but in fact it wasn't left leaning voters who shifted as much as right leaning lib voters who shifted. Lib supporters and their operatives still like to "spin" that crap.

Absolutely agreed. The Orange Wave in Quebec could have still happened without a Liberal collapse. It merely would have taken someone as electable as Stéphane Dion or Dalton McGuinty (which is setting a relatively low bar) to keep a dozen or more additional Ontario seats out of Conservative hands. 

janfromthebruce

I remember a friend of mine who lived in a different area of Ontario actually shifiting his vote on the last weekend to conservative. He wasn't conservative in any way but bought into the last weekend push that the NDP would or may possibly win and that it would create financial crisis and turmoil in our economy. In other words, the NDP are bad economic managers.

Now that worked more so in Ontario rather than in provinces where the NDP has been in power provincially and successfully. His vote in that particular riding would not have made a difference in the outcome but still it provided me with insight into how somewhat progressive but conservative liberal voters shifted their votes to prevent the soc dems to come to power. 

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

theleftyinvestor wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

As for Topp running campaigns for 2nd - yeah, the first time every the NDP came 2nd federally and some how that is crap. I'm just blown away.

Not saying it's crap. Just that maybe what he brought to the federal campaign under Layton, a 4th party that moved up to 2nd, was not the right skill set for moving 2nd up to 1st under Dix.

There is this myth out there that Brian Topp was the campaign manager in 2011.  It's not true.  Brad Lavigne was the 2011 NDP campaign manager.  Topp had some involvement (debate prep perhaps?) but had stepped down from the manager's position before the campaign even began.

David Young

janfromthebruce wrote:

I remember a friend of mine who lived in a different area of Ontario actually shifiting his vote on the last weekend to conservative. He wasn't conservative in any way but bought into the last weekend push that the NDP would or may possibly win and that it would create financial crisis and turmoil in our economy. In other words, the NDP are bad economic managers.

Now that worked more so in Ontario rather than in provinces where the NDP has been in power provincially and successfully. His vote in that particular riding would not have made a difference in the outcome but still it provided me with insight into how somewhat progressive but conservative liberal voters shifted their votes to prevent the soc dems to come to power. 

The same thing happened here in South Shore-St. Margaret's, jan.

Gordon Earle lost by less than 1000 votes in the 2008 election to Gerald Keddy, and during the 2011 campaign, the Cons really went after Liberal voters with the 'vote for us, or else the NDP will win!' spin,  and they picked up enough former Liberal voters that they won by 2900 votes.  Had the Conservative vote remained the same as 2008, the NDP's increase in support would have defeated Keddy.

Some people just won't accept the fact that there are a great many Liberal voters that will go Conservative before they ever go NDP.

 

Brachina

Lou Arab wrote:

theleftyinvestor wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

As for Topp running campaigns for 2nd - yeah, the first time every the NDP came 2nd federally and some how that is crap. I'm just blown away.

Not saying it's crap. Just that maybe what he brought to the federal campaign under Layton, a 4th party that moved up to 2nd, was not the right skill set for moving 2nd up to 1st under Dix.

There is this myth out there that Brian Topp was the campaign manager in 2011.  It's not true.  Brad Lavigne was the 2011 NDP campaign manager.  Topp had some involvement (debate prep perhaps?) but had stepped down from the manager's position before the campaign even began.

I believe the line on Iggy's attendance was from Topp, which was the knockout punch, so even though he wasn't campaign manager he had a major contribution.

None of this really hurts Topp in the long term, because he's promised to seek office in Quebec in 2012 so in a couple of years that will be his focus.

janfromthebruce

David Young wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

I remember a friend of mine who lived in a different area of Ontario actually shifiting his vote on the last weekend to conservative. He wasn't conservative in any way but bought into the last weekend push that the NDP would or may possibly win and that it would create financial crisis and turmoil in our economy. In other words, the NDP are bad economic managers.

Now that worked more so in Ontario rather than in provinces where the NDP has been in power provincially and successfully. His vote in that particular riding would not have made a difference in the outcome but still it provided me with insight into how somewhat progressive but conservative liberal voters shifted their votes to prevent the soc dems to come to power. 

The same thing happened here in South Shore-St. Margaret's, jan.

Gordon Earle lost by less than 1000 votes in the 2008 election to Gerald Keddy, and during the 2011 campaign, the Cons really went after Liberal voters with the 'vote for us, or else the NDP will win!' spin,  and they picked up enough former Liberal voters that they won by 2900 votes.  Had the Conservative vote remained the same as 2008, the NDP's increase in support would have defeated Keddy.

Some people just won't accept the fact that there are a great many Liberal voters that will go Conservative before they ever go NDP.

 

Agree David. But perhaps having a provincial NDP govt will help in that matter.

Sean in Ottawa

I am not convinced that the Liberals lost more right wing than left wing voters. First-- a lot of Liberal voters do not see themselves in those terms. Many voters of other parties don't which is how you could get Reform-NDP switchers.

I think when the Liberals went down in the last election they bled out in all directions-- likely fairly equally.

The NDP does attract left wing voters -- but the party has people who also do not see themselves in those terms. There were people who bolted to the NDP over issues of ethics, fairness, leadership and other issues.

I will predict that a good campaign from the NDP will produce Conservative-NDP switchers. Many people here with well-developed political views think the public is equally decided about ideology. In fact other than the political  people I know -- I find most I meet can be swayed by other issues. I have convinced Conservative supporters to move to the NDP in the past.

This reality also explains how a guy like Trudeau can get all that support without exposing policy, ideology or principles.

A move by 10% of the population decides who gets to govern. Many of those switchers are not ideological as the more ideological among us already are decided.

All of this also helps explain why strategic voting is such a crock as voting motivations vary greatly. and you cannot sort all voters neatly into centre right and left.

There were also more left liberals that may also have moved to the Cons to block the NDP as well- it is not simple.

janfromthebruce

I agree it is not simple as that. I agree there was those, say in Ontario who were say left leaning like my friend who voted Conservative. But I do know in rereading Pundit's guide there was just as many right leaning former liberal supporters who voted Conservative as say those who voted NDP.

I was looking for at Pundit's guide the research showing what actually happen in the last election. Go back in her posts in May/June 2011 and say shows what happen in Ontario in those close ridings. As shown, it was NDP who split that vote as put out by Liberals in those key ridings in which they lost.

Sean in Ottawa

Jan I think we agree-- for the same reason neither of us buys strategic vote assumptions. I would go further and say that the more ideologically aware the person is the more consistent their voting patterns may be and that those who moved between the NDP, Liberals, Green and Conservatives are less likely to be Liberals switching to NDP as people disaffected with the Liberals going anywhere, or people leaving a sinking ship, or people with motivations such as stopping one party or another or supporting a person becuase they liked that person.

The NDP did pick up votes in Ontario-- those votes could have come from Green, Liberal, Conservative or those who never voted before. But some combination of the above pushed up the vote dramatically.

The Conservatives also picked up votes--

The NET changes in popular votes were as follows: Conservatives up 4.2%; NDP up 7.4%; Liberals down 7.5%; Greens down 4.2%.

Green/Con and NDP/Con switchers from what we have heard appear to be rare. If you make this presumption then you could assume the following could be the more likely something close to this:

 

Total from other parties 0.3 to Green to other parties: Green to NDP 3.9% Green to Conservative 0.3% Green to Liberal 0.3%

Total from other parties 0.5 to Liberal to other parties: Liberal to NDP 3.7% Liberal to Conservative 4.2% Liberal to Green 0.1%

Total from other parties: 4.5 to Conservative to other parties: Conservative to NDP 0.1 Conservative to Liberal 0.1 Conservative to Green 0.1

Total from other parties 7.7: to other parties: NDP to Conservative 0.1 NDP to Liberal 0.1 NDP to Green 0.1

(Rounding will be out 0.1 as it is in the change total)

Yes I made this up-- I did by coming to the most credible flow that would explain these net changes. You can see if you play with it you can't, as Jan says, credibly explain Liberal losses going all to NDP. To do so you would need to assume an almost wholesale move from Green to Conservative which makes no sense at all.

Makes more sense to see the changes as I did: a major shift from Green to NDP along with a Liberal vote splitting slightly more to the Liberals than the Cons. I showed the above to illustrate that there are vote switches in all directions-- some previous conservatives who were disillusioned could have gone to the NDP; some votes moved to the Liberals as well as away from them-- just that the net was a move away. 

janfromthebruce

I think we pretty much agree. I tried looking last night on pundit's guide site for that final research study but I had to go and thus had to quit my search going through the back posts/years. I do remember reading it at the time. It was in a pdf format.

One thing that happen last election is that in those lib switch to con ridings (close ones), the cons also increased their vote beyond the previous vote totals, and thus they got new voters who didn't vote before. Thus they were better at identifying "their new voters" and getting them to the polls.

I believe that in NS, the NDP lost a race in which they actually increased their vote from the previous election but the Cons increased their vote much more and thus won.

Sean in Ottawa

I think that if Layton had not run such a good campaign it would have been a far bigger majority for Harper. That is the only conclusion you can get from the numbers we have. The Liberal vote was collapsing.

The Conservatives very likely did win seats due to the Liberal collapse-- some that could have gone Liberal others that could have gone to the NDP. But the Liberals also won seats that without a strong NDP could have gone Conservative.

In any case it is not up to any political party to include such dynamics in an election strategy. You present the best of yourself you can to the people and leave the other parties to line up as they will. Otherwise what you are doing is a form of collusion.

NorthReport

Show us the money Mr Harper!

 

Tory line on PMO fund 'doesn't wash,' Mulcair says "No one is denying" party fund run by PM's chief of staff, Tory MP says

 

Produce the cheque'

Alexander insisted the special discretionary fund controlled by the chief of staff was not used by Wright to help Duffy repay his ineligible senate expenses.

"That will be confirmed by independent investigation," Alexander said.

On Friday, the Opposition New Democrats formally asked Elections Canada to investigate the partisan fund controlled out of the PMO.

Mulcair is also calling on the Conservatives to produce a copy of the $90,000 cheque Wright gave to Duffy.

"They have the cheque, they have the ability to produce the cheque. The fact that they continue to refuse to produce it simply leaves all of those questions unanswered," Mulcair said.

Asked if producing the cheque would put all these questions to rest, Alexander said "I don't think, we don't think, it would serve the public interest very well to have a dribs and drabs investigation played out by cheques being shown in front of television cameras and so forth."

"When you want to get to the bottom of something you empower an independent office, an independent authority to look into it, as we have done with the ethics commissioner, as we have done with other independent authorities in this case."

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/story/2013/06/08/pol-th...

NorthReport

Conservatives are attacking the Liberal CBC "maggots'.   Laughing

Show us the money Mr Harper.

Quote:
Let’s see the cheque

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair said the story of how Duffy got paid has changed too many times to be believed and if he wasn’t paid off by the party, it’s easy to prove.

“Let’s see the cheque,” Mulcair said.

“It’s the easier thing to do. We’ll know the date, we’ll know the provenance and we’ll know whose signature is on it.”

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/06/07/conservative-party-says-there-is...

NorthReport

Don't worry Don, Harper will sell Canadian workers out, just as Mulroney did before him with his Free-Trade Agreement.

And please don't forget as well Liberal PM Paul Martin with his offshore companies.

Don warns against signing a CETA in desperation

 

http://dondavies.ca/don-warns-against-signing-a-ceta-in-desperation/

Sean in Ottawa

NAFTA superseded the FTA and was signed by Chrétien and it picked up where the Mulroney agreement left off.

The original Mulroney agreement was designed by a Liberal Donald Macdonald

Pages

Topic locked