NDP #16

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Catchfire Catchfire's picture
NDP #16

Continued from here.

Regions: 
janfromthebruce

Thank you. Off to work but I may repost that article by Dobbins.

Polunatic2

Can the NDP win the Toronto Centre by-election (Bob Rae's riding)? If so, how? Any co-relations between that possibility and their fortunes in the 2015 general election? 

socialdemocrati...

Any look at this map tells you that Bob Rae outperformed his Liberal counterparts in Downtown Toronto.

What's the difference between Trinity-Spadina/Danforth and Toronto Center? I suppose some of it you could chalk up to the star power of Jack Layton, not to mention Olivia Chow.

But Olivia had an uphill battle against the Liberals for a few years. Looking at that map again, it doesn't look like she has an uphill battle anymore.

It leads me to conclude that a large number of Toronto progressives vote strategically. There are probably a lot of NDP-leaners who have held their nose and voted Liberal. I would venture to say that there must be some Liberal-leaners who held their nose (or took a chance) on the NDP, once they became the obvious frontrunner in Trinity-Spadina and Danforth.

I would venture to say that Bob Rae has as much star power as Olivia Chow, if not pretty close to Jack Layton. Add to that, a good reputation with some New Democrats, and some Liberals. And a ton of resources and savvy.

In 2011, Toronto Center looks like an outlier to me. I'm convinced that if Bob Rae had resigned before that election, it would have been much closer, if not an NDP pickup. The NDP surged double digits in that riding as is.

The other factor at play: that red and blue blob with the larger voting districts is Rosedale. The richest part of Toronto. There's a good chance when Toronto Center is redrawn, Rosedale will be lopped off. (Mind you, one of the plans is to latch Rosedale onto the top of Trinity Spadina, and turn the bottom half of Trinity Spadina into its own riding.)

My best prediction: if Toronto goes NDP in 2015, then so will Toronto Center. If the NDP support collapses for whatever reason (it could happen), the map will look a lot like 2008, which still isn't that bad.

NorthReport

One of the many challenges facing the NDP.

How Harper's Office Is Playing News Editor

Can you spot the 'scoops' that a PMO flack provided to journalists?

http://thetyee.ca/Mediacheck/2013/06/20/Harper-Playing-News-Editor/

theleftyinvestor

I think the NDP definitely has a serious shot at TC, but this isn't exactly their strongest moment in the polls and the Liberals are broadly doing better than in 2011. It is really going to depend on what each candidate brings to the table.

BTW someone suggested Zach Paikin might want to go for the LPC nomination? Dear lord. I can't think of a better way to hand it to the NDP on a silver platter. He would be so obnoxious that voters would stay home or pick anyone else but him.

quizzical

NorthReport wrote:
Can you spot the 'scoops' that a PMO flack provided to journalists?

http://thetyee.ca/Mediacheck/2013/06/20/Harper-Playing-News-Editor/

 

omg!!!!! the whole article is mind bending this shows the flow.

"Your tax dollars at work

Bear with me, this is complicated.

As CBC's Kady O'Malley reports, a board member of New Brunswick's Grace Foundation leaked the letter requesting Trudeau return his speaking fee, which is what kicked-off this whole "scandal" on Friday. Her name is Judith Baxter. Her husband is Glen Baxter. And he works for the Conservative riding association in Fundy Royal, New Brunswick -- Tory MP Rob Moore's riding. That would be the same Moore whose doubt in Trudeau's sincerity features in this week's memo from Meekes.

Did I mention that the PMO circulated the letter to media after Moore received it? Or that Judith Baxter and her daughter Jennifer are such pals with the PM that they were circulating a photo of themselves shot in his office? (Thank you, Facebook.)

That's right: some Harper insiders used their privileged access to confidential documents to engineer a scandal against the guy who is beginning to look like Harper's biggest worry. And yes, this is your tax dollars at work.

In this case, you're not funding just sleazy politicos and civil servants. Charities are non-profit organizations that enjoy a host of tax benefits and public grants. They are not supposed to engage in political activities. Last year, the Harper Government™ was threatening to revoke charitable status for environmental organizations for being "too political."

But I'm sure they'll overlook a faithful servant like Judith Baxter giving Harper ammo against Trudeau. Although if I were the Grace Foundation I don't think I'd forgive her. Baxter just called attention to the charity's less than stellar management.

It turns out that being incompetent fundraisers is only the tip of their ineptitude. In 2012, they spent the bulk of their revenues on themselves, with $3.2 million going to management and administration, while only $2.3 million on their charitable programs in care homes."

Aristotleded24

What if Smitherman runs for the Liberals and David Miller runs for the NDP?

theleftyinvestor

Aristotleded24 wrote:

What if Smitherman runs for the Liberals and David Miller runs for the NDP?

That'd be a hell of an interesting race, but what makes you think David Miller would be welcomed running for the NDP? He has at times supported individual Liberals after his departure from the party and that tends to make for bad blood at nomination meetings.

I think it's fair to say, at least, that there is no imaginable split of the vote where TC would go Conservative in 2013. Hence the NDP and Greens will be pouring everything they've got into it, and it could stand to be quite competitive.

socialdemocrati...

The timing of the by-election isn't great. There's no coattails of a national campaign, and the Liberal faithful are riding high with Trudeau's nomination still recent.

janfromthebruce

It depends who runs and their local star power. And if Smitherson ran he'd also be running against the Ontario Lib scandals which he carries like a ball and chain at his feet - gas plants, O'range.

socialdemocrati...

Smitherman would be extremely beatable, and would be an easy symbol the Liberal party hasn't actually changed. (If the NDP got the word out.)

NorthReport
NorthReport
Brian Glennie
socialdemocrati...

It IS unacceptable. The thing is, I'm pretty sure it happens at many kinds of events -- Liberals events, Conservative events, certainly corporate events. The key is that many NDPers are receptive to actually doing something about harassment, and that makes people more willing to report it, and stand against harassment.

NorthReport

The NDP needs to be all over this TFW issue because if handled properly it could propel them into government in 2015.

Temporary foreign workers flood into Canada as youth can’t find work: Conference Board asks why

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/tem...

NorthReport

Another issue which can help can to propel Mulcair-led NDP into government.

 

New Poll Carries Stark Warning to Harper: Four in Ten Canadians Willing to Change Their Vote if There Is No National Plan for the Future of Health Care

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/new-poll-carries-stark-warning-h...

socialdemocrati...

Trust on health care is one factor that propelled the NDP forward over the past few cycles. Or, at least, people didn't trust the Conservatives, and stopped trusting the Liberals. Maybe they hadn't fully warmed to an NDP-governed economy, but they knew that the NDP would defend public health care as a matter of principle.

Lens Solution

Robocalls land NDP MP Paul Dewar $7,000 fine

 

Polling firm's automated calls during NDP leadership campaign not properly identified, MP says

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2013/07/26/pol-cp-ndp-mp-paul-dewa...

 

>If Dewar broke the rules, then he has to pay the price, same as any other MP.  But unfortunately this may be used by the CPC to distract attention away from the more serious allegations they face.

socialdemocrati...

Yeah, it obscures the real issue. The issue isn't automated calls, or even automated calls that are unattributed. The problem is automated calls that spread misinformation and smears, with the messenger deliberately hiding their identity.

Aristotleded24

Lens Solution wrote:

Robocalls land NDP MP Paul Dewar $7,000 fine

 

Polling firm's automated calls during NDP leadership campaign not properly identified, MP says

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2013/07/26/pol-cp-ndp-mp-paul-dewa...

 

>If Dewar broke the rules, then he has to pay the price, same as any other MP.  But unfortunately this may be used by the CPC to distract attention away from the more serious allegations they face.

The CRTC has acknowledged that Dewar has co-operated with the investigation.

On a related note, why can't we ditch robo-calls entirely? It seems the only impact is to sway people against whomever is calling them, and they are as welcome on people's answering machines as telemarketers.

mark_alfred

NDP's campaign to make life more affordable.  link

CanadaOrangeCat

If they would cut gasoline taxes and property taxes and sales taxes, my life would be more affordable.

janfromthebruce

COC, those taxes were increased after all the doawnloading from federal to provincial during the Chretien/Martin years, Mike Harris years - the domino effect. Thus they downloaded those costs municipally in which municipalities, for instance, increased property taxes. The other taxes happen at fed/prov level. Those are unprogressive taxes.

mark_alfred

Budget 'mistake' more than doubles tax on credit unions

Good for the NDP on calling the current government out on this. They're turning out to be great in the role of Official Opposition, exposing this government's ineptitude time and time again. I'm sure they'll be great as our next government.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

"If they would cut gasoline taxes and property taxes and sales taxes, my life would be more affordable."

And then if they would just get rid of all thoseother peskey taxes, our lives would be perfect.The problem is the tax system fails the wealthy.  It needs to be chaned. The worst thing Trudeau the Sr. ever did was to bury the Carter Commission. I guess "a buck is a buck" was too much for him and the rest of his Bay Street buddies to take.

clambake

From liberal.ca:

Quote:
The NDP have devolved on this issue – actually moving backwards. Former NDP Leader Jack Layton called for the creation of a “legal environment” and legislation that would allow for the safe, legal purchasing of marijuana. Thomas Mulcair once said that marijuana was similar to alcohol and it should be a matter of personal choice. Now, Mulcair and the NDP are arguing for the continued prohibition of marijuana and attacking those who advocate its legalization.

Regardless of whether this is true or not, the NDP are really getting outflanked by the Liberals on this issue. I imagine this meme is resonating and sticking with many voters that have supported the NDP in the past and furthers the myth the that the LPC is "progressive". I've actually seen many comments saying that the LPC are the more progessive of the three parties.

mark_alfred

The myth of the LPC being progressive has been around for a long time, regardless of what they do.  Regarding marijuana policy specifically, I do agree that legalizing is a better option to decriminalization.  So, on that issue, I'd say the LPC are currently speaking more progressively.  However, overall regarding everything else, particularly anti-poverty stuff and environmental stuff, I find the NDP the better choice.

Looking at marijuana, here's where it's mentioned in the NDP policy book:

NDP policy book wrote:
New Democrats believe in:

Justice:  Decriminalizing marijuana possession with the goal of removing its production and distribution from the control of organized crime.

Health:  Adopting a harm reduction approach to substance abuse and permitting the use of marijuana for medicinal purposes.

And here is the latter part of the Liberal resolution regarding marijuana:

Liberal resolution wrote:

BE IT RESOLVED that a new Liberal government will legalize marijuana and ensure the regulation and taxation of its production, distribution, and use, while enacting strict penalties for illegal trafficking, illegal importation and exportation, and impaired driving;

BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that a new Liberal government will invest significant resources in prevention and education programs designed to promote awareness of the health risks and consequences of marijuana use and dependency, especially amongst youth;

BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that a new Liberal government will extend amnesty to all Canadians previously convicted of simple and minimal marijuana possession, and ensure the elimination of all criminal records related thereto;

BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that a new Liberal government will work with the provinces and local governments of Canada on a coordinated regulatory approach to marijuana which maintains significant federal responsibility for marijuana control while respecting provincial health jurisdiction and particular regional concerns and practices.

mark_alfred

NDP continuing to hold the Conservative's feet to the fire.  link

mark_alfred

Article about NDP laying the groundwork for success in Saskatchewan.  Seems Mulcair is following through with his talk of turning roots into trees (from the leadership campaign).  Hopefully it works.

socialdemocrati...

I've read that the Sasketchewan re-districting will be pretty fruitful for the NDP, even if the numbers from 2011 just hold on.

NorthReport

Hebert's comments remain to be aeen.

Prepare to see a more cutthroat NDP: HébertA memo from NDP strategist Brian Topp advocating a more aggressive campaign style is compelling and dispiriting.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/09/23/prepare_to_see_a_more_cutt...

janfromthebruce

There have been many media party people who disagree with that meme and in fact did go for critism with hard hitting ads but often used humour to show it.

socialdemocrati...

Yeah, I think the dichotomy between "negative attack politics" and "clean optimistic politics" is a false one. The second you buy into that false dichotomy, you either unilaterally disarm and take a beating, or you join in the fight and lower the quality of political discourse away from the issues. Either way, you lose.

Whether attacking or promoting, honesty has to be rule #1. Go after your opponents about their actual record. Promote yourself based on what you actually want to do.

This worked because it was honest and tough, but still lighthearted and hopeful: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9paHEhaKQw

clambake

Apparently there's some discussion about Cullen running for the BC NDP leadership. I really hope not. I think he's a shoe-in for the next leader of the party, especially if they don't do well in 2015

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/cullen-weighing-pros-and-cons-of-bc-ndp-leadership-run/article14498635/?cmpid=rss1&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

NorthReport

Personally I think the Mulcair-led NDP are going to do very well in 2015.

Why would you think otherwise?

Also don't think anyone is a shoo-in for anything within the NDP, although right now I would say the Christy Clark is making all the right moves, while people like George Hayman are not, and that the Premier is a shoo-in to be re-elected in 2017.

And what about Don Davies?

Maybe he would be the best person to lead the hapless BC NDP out of the wilderness.

 

clambake

Oh, I'm not doubting that Mulcair will do well in 2015. I have high hopes that the party can overcome the Trudeau machine, but if they should falter, I think Cullen is the next leader in the wings. Even if a Mulcair NDP form government, Cullen would be a big loss as a potential cabinet minister

felixr

Cullen would be a good fit for the BC NDP.

Brachina

 Yeah for me the best picks would be Nathan Cullen or Elby, both have vision that the BC NDP deseperately need, botb know how to beat rightwingers in thier own turf and Nathan Cullen has charm and humour in greater abundance then Premier Clark.

 I will miss Nathan at the Federal level, but winning government in BC is vital and I have full faith in Mulcair in 2015. Still keeping Nathan's riding without him will be hard.

addictedtomyipod

felixr wrote:

Cullen would be a good fit for the BC NDP.

Yes!  He was hugely popular here during the leadership race.

socialdemocrati...

Count me as another one who would rather see Nathan Cullen (and Olivia Chow) stay involved at the federal level. There's more of a baseline chance for success in Toronto or BC politics, but to get anywhere federally we need the best MPs we can find.

janfromthebruce

I'm with socdem on this one. We need a strong front bench and I would hope that Cullen reconsiders.

Brachina

 While bith Olivia and Nathan will be missed, they are needed elsewhere. Both the Mayorship of Toronto and the Premiership are massively important.

 And Mulcair has no shortage of talent to choose from for his front bench, the NDP has an embarrassment of riches.

 Still its also rumoured Peter Julian and Jinny Sims are concidering running for the Leadership of the BC NDP, I just hope they don' all quit to run, one should run and the rest support them.

socialdemocrati...

Looking at the BC polls, the Premiership is completely reachable without a "star". Same thing with Mayor of Toronto.

The Federal polls are a tougher fight.

mark_alfred

I wouldn't be so sure about Toronto.  Ford had some very good assistance with his campaign last time with targeted polling across the entire city.  Also, the feds recently pledged over 600 million to his inane Scarborough subway idea.  So, they've gambled that he'll not be a major embarrassment before the next election, and thus are aiming to see him win.  He'll have a lot of resources at his disposal for an effective campaign.  Chow, unlike other contenders who may challenge Ford from the left, has clout in both the city and the suburbs, and thus could win.  Others, it's not so sure.

mark_alfred

I saw the last Layton Lecture with Ed Broadbent in Toronto.  It was good.  Cathy Crowe has been appointed as a distinguished visiting practitioner at Ryerson University’s Faculty of Arts.

socialdemocrati...

I concede the point about Toronto. Even if Ford doesn't win, the odds of getting a right-wing-lite George Smitherman or John Tory in there are also bad.

Brachina

The federal battle we be mostly between the leaders, with individual candiates mattering in individual ridings, but the hard truth is in modern politics its a battle of leaders that usually determines that battle, along with a strong organization for close races.

If Nathan chooses to run in BC the only damage that will occur will be to winning Skeena, it will not effect the federal campaign elsewhere accept if Nathan ends up being a very popular opposition leader the good will could drift upwards to the Federal NDP in BC.

Brachina

The federal battle we be mostly between the leaders, with individual candiates mattering in individual ridings, but the hard truth is in modern politics its a battle of leaders that usually determines that battle, along with a strong organization for close races. If Nathan chooses to run in BC the only damage that will occur will be to winning Skeena, it will not effect the federal campaign elsewhere accept if Nathan ends up being a very popular opposition leader the good will could drift upwards to the Federal NDP in BC.

janfromthebruce

Actually I'm going to disagree with really all that matters is the leader. Voters need to know that there is bench strength and one of the memes towards NDP is the youth of the MPs (Quebec) and sometimes no knowledge of other MPs. So bench strength and regional strength matters for individual MPs.

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