NDP candidate quits: Endorses Liberal candidate in bid to unseat the Tories 2

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Unionist

Hey janfromthebruce, did you leave Ryan Dolby [url=http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-candidate-quits-endorses-l... message[/url] yet? If so, any reply?

 

gadar

Centrist wrote:

Speaking of a party member/candidate bolting to another party - here's Canada's creme de la creme case of same.

BC's riding of South Surrey-White Rock is represented by the infamous, useless, right-wing, so-con - Russ Hiebert, who claimed the highest MP expenses in Canada one year ago. His riding association and local Con party members are now split - and how split they are in terms of local candidates: Tongue out

Con: Russ Hiebert

Lib: Hardy Staub (former 3-term White Rock mayor who was part of the local Con executive)

Green: Larry Colero (local Con member who has never been an environmentalist)

Christian Heritage Party: Mike Schouten (local Con member who despises Hiebert)

Ind: Aart Looye (local Con member and part of executive who despises Heibert)

So we have 5 Con party members now running for different parties and four of them are running in order to defeat disgraced Hiebert.

And the only REAL opposition candidate in the riding is progressive New Democrat Susan Keeping who has won the YWCA's Women of Distinction Award!

 

 

And inspite of 5 cons running against a con, watch the infamous, useless, right wing, so-con Russ Hiebert win again. That riding mainly comprises rich and/or old and we all know how those people vote. The local media is not doing too bad of a job tho

http://www.thenownewspaper.com/Surrey+Hiebert+under+fire+doing+nothing+help+Afghan/4538811/story.html

 

flatustheflower

this statigic move is step in right direcetion partian politic aside, cause its the question willl there be a next time / what will the landscape look like?
our only option to save Canada. Vote NDP, Vote Bloc, if in Quebec, Vote Liberal. Any thing But Conservative or Green!
So as it lay's the probability and how many feel this is the particular May 2, 2011 election
is the tipping point that is going to decide Canada's ultimate Direction.

below is a statement more aimed at the greens but resonates to all
http://www.flatustheflower.org/?p=491

Stockholm

This seems like kind of a gutsy move on Layton's part and really takes the bull by the horns on this incident! what do others think?

"On Monday Mr. Layton said he will make an important announcement about retirement security. He also takes his campaign bus to the riding of Elgin-Middlesex-London where last week his candidate Ryan Dolby quit and gave his support to the Liberals to mount a greater attack against Stephen Harper’s Conservatives.

Mr. Layton will hold a rally with his new candidate, Fred Sinclair, the former riding association president who stepped in to fill the vacancy."

Aristotleded24
janfromthebruce

Right on Jack! Gutsy for sure and I like it - that's why he's the leader and I'm Stickin with the NPD!

 

Stockholm wrote:

This seems like kind of a gutsy move on Layton's part and really takes the bull by the horns on this incident! what do others think?

"On Monday Mr. Layton said he will make an important announcement about retirement security. He also takes his campaign bus to the riding of Elgin-Middlesex-London where last week his candidate Ryan Dolby quit and gave his support to the Liberals to mount a greater attack against Stephen Harper’s Conservatives.

Mr. Layton will hold a rally with his new candidate, Fred Sinclair, the former riding association president who stepped in to fill the vacancy."

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

Farmpunk

Fred Sinclair is a better candidate than Ryan Dolby.  

wage zombie

Please remove Ryan Dolby's name from the riding's donation page: https://secure.ndp.ca/riding/index.php?riding=35020&language=e

Doug

Farmpunk wrote:

Fred Sinclair is a better candidate than Ryan Dolby.  

 

Not to disparage Fred Sinclair, but an old battered Teddy Ruxpin would be a better candidate than Ryan Dolby.

Stockholm

Check this out!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/layton-gamb...

"It was a bit of gamble for NDP Leader Jack Layton to hold a rally in the southwestern Ontario riding where one of his candidates defected just days into the election campaign to throw his support behind the Liberals....In the end, it was a gamble that seemed to pay off. An exuberant crowd of 400 filled the hall."

 

janfromthebruce

Great turn out and great article in both G & M and TorStar.

 

Stockholm wrote:

Check this out!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/layton-gamb...

"It was a bit of gamble for NDP Leader Jack Layton to hold a rally in the southwestern Ontario riding where one of his candidates defected just days into the election campaign to throw his support behind the Liberals....In the end, it was a gamble that seemed to pay off. An exuberant crowd of 400 filled the hall."

 

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

thorin_bane

Hope this gives us momentum in that riding and the NDP actually does better than the libs, even if we lose to the cons. I never thought I woudl say that, but the backroom doyle guy has left a bad taste in my mouth.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Anybody else want to vote strageically?

 

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adma

Of course, it helps Layton that he has representation in the area already (Irene M.) to piggyback off; so it's not as quixotic a campaign-trail gesture as it may appear,,,

adma

Of course, it helps Layton that he has representation in the area already (Irene M.) to piggyback off; so it's not as quixotic a campaign-trail gesture as it may appear,,,

Farmpunk

Layton has been very good about visiting EML over the years.  Mathyssen wins her riding by outworking everyone on the ground.   

Doug, I know Sinclair seems like a champ compared to Dolby right now.  But Dolby put in a great deal of time and effort supporting and representing the NDP.  It's possible that his exit will galvanize an ant-Preston movement in the riding.   

Sinclair is a much harder edged and blunt candidate.  Dolby was a little too hesitant, and I have to wonder if the local NDP may have wedged him into the position.  

It's a thankless job getting your ass kicked.  Sinclair is more equiped to deal some damage along the way to a re-election for Preston.

JeffWells

I thought this topic needed the EML 2011 results:

CON 28,958

NDP 12,436

LIB 6,812

knownothing knownothing's picture

Yep let the truth be told! Strategic Voting is Liberal Propoganda!

The Liberals made a strategic attack on the NDP at the start of the campaign.

- Bob Rae campaigned in Saskatoon Rosetown Biggar

- Vote Compass

- Left-wing platform

- Strategic Voting Campaign

Anybody got any others?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

NDP candidate got twice the votes as the Lib? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Stockholm

Maybe at the NDP convention in Vancouver next month - they should give out a Ryan Dolby Memorial Award! or better yet - we should hold a "Dinner for Losers" and invite the following people:

Ryan Dolby

Christelle Bogosta

Jean-Claude Rocheleau

Paul Summerville

Chris Axworthy

...and as Bob Rae and Ujjal Dosanjh to take turns as honorary MCs at the event!

janfromthebruce

You know, maybe some of those above mentioned folk would like to come back into the fold and personally I don't really like the attack. Let's not act like others do in the MSM. So are my thoughts!

adma

Though in the meantime, we can shoehorn this in as a token obligatory gesture

vermonster

janfromthebruce wrote:

You know, maybe some of those above mentioned folk would like to come back into the fold and personally I don't really like the attack. Let's not act like others do in the MSM. So are my thoughts!

Thanks for voicing that - I've been thinking much the same.

While I personally don't have any desire to see any of these folks standing for the NDP again, I am reminded that the challenge/opportunity right now is (partially) whether or not we can earn the votes of folks who have never or rarely voted NDP in the past.

A good number of those will need to be non-voters and new voters. Some of those may even be folks who have voted Conservative before (populist Reformers who may someday become disillusioned, prairie farmers who get screwed over by Harper's corporatism, new Canadians temporarily taken in by Kenney's tactics, middle class voters who finally realise that Harper is hurting them, etc...).

But a good part of those new NDP voters will probably come from the ranks of former Liberal voters. There are a good number of them who hold progressive viewpoints on most issues, and whose vision of Canadian society is probably pretty congruent with the NDPs. They've been voting Liberal out of a belief that the LPC holds those same values, or as a lesser of evils vote against the Conservatives, or because there was no viable NDP presence in their riding, etc... We need to be able to reach these voters, we need to figure out how to deliver a message that they can hear and respond to in language that makes sense to them. 

I share the disdain for the turncoats and opportunists who have deserted the NDP, and I totally understand (and to some extent engage in) the ritual of ridiculing them now that the shoe has been moved to the other foot. While we shouldn't deny ourselves some of that pleasure, neither should we revel too much in it or be too smug about it.

Our message and language needs to be one of openness and welcoming to the folks we want to attract for future elections. Too much disdain and personal attacks on the people they have been voting for doesn't seem like the best way to reach them.

 

 

 

 

bekayne

JeffWells wrote:

I thought this topic needed the EML 2011 results:

CON 28,958

NDP 12,436

LIB 6,812

2004:  4,473

2006:  9,899

2008: 11,801

2011: 15,522

vermonster

bekayne wrote:

JeffWells wrote:

I thought this topic needed the EML 2011 results:

CON 28,958

NDP 12,436

LIB 6,812

2004:  4,473

2006:  9,899

2008: 11,801

2011: 15,522

Probably makes sense to look at ALL the relevant numbers if we want to understand what is going on in EML

2004

Con:  20,415 (44%);   LIB 15,860 (34%);   NDP 6,763 (15%);  Green 2,033  (4%); CHP  1,246 (3%)

2006:

Con:  23,416 (46%);   LIB 13,517 (26%);   NDP   9,873 (19%);   Green 2,873  (6%); CHP 1,039 (2%)

2008:

Con:  22,970 (48%);   LIB 11,169 (24%);   NDP   9,135 (19%);   Green 3,241 (7%);  CHP  619  (1%)

2011:

Con:  28,958 (57%);   LIB  6,812  (14%);   NDP  12,436 (25%);  Green 1,529 (3%);  CHP  582  (1%)

 

So over the past 4 elections, several trends are clear.

Two parties have seen their share of the vote rise each election:

The Conservatives have seen a steady rise in their vote, from 44% to 57%, an increase of 13%.

The NDP have gone from 15% to 25%, an increase of 10%

 

One party has seen a steady decline in their vote over the same time:

The Liberal vote has decreased in each election, from 34% to 14%, a drop of 20%

 

The two minor parties have both seen fluctuations over the elections.

The Greens have dropped 1% from their 2004 performance, going from 4% to 3% (with better performances during the 2 intervening elections.

The CHP have dropped steadily from a high of 3% in 2004 to 1% in 2011.

 

In general it can be presumed that the Conservative increase (13%) corresponds to gaining from the Liberals (11%), while also gobbling up 2% from the CHP. Similarly, the NDP increase (10%) corresponds to gaining 9% from the Liberals and 1% from the Greens. [Obviously it is impossible to look at those numbers in anything other than generalities, in reality individual voter behaviour changes cannot be definitively accounted for, nor can the changes created by new voters entering the electorate or past voters not voting.]

With the dramatic collapse of the Liberal vote over past elections, and the Conservative rising to win a fairly strong majority over the same time, it makes no sense to talk of this riding as one as a strategic voting target in the current electoral environment. Barring a major reversal in party fortunes, incumbent retirement, or dramatic redistribution changes, it seems that EML has moved into the category of being a fairly safe Conservative seat. The Liberals are no longer in contention for the seat, and it remains to be seen if the NDP vote will continue to grow at the same rate it has in past elections. But anyone arguing that NDP supporters here should vote Liberal to defeat the Conservative (as did Ryan Dolby) clearly can find no evidence in recent voting trends. 

 

 

 

 

janfromthebruce

It also suggests that when suggesting strategic voting, that these silly sites have to take into consideration the "trend line overtime" rather than just using the last election as the benchmark. If sites had done this, those sites may have suggested that the rise in votes for the NDP was really the one to support rather than the declining liberals.

 

That said, I also believe that these strategic voting sites are operated as part of the Liberal home team - and thus it's no surprise that they were recommending more NDP vote liberal rather than vice versa, particularly since the majority of them were situated out of Ontario.

 

Furthermore, if these are supposed "progressive voting sites" they should be supporting real progressives rather than some Liberal candidates who didn't have a progressive bone in their bodies.

 

I about choked on my coffee this morning when seeing that the CAW supported their members voting for Joyce (whoever) in Vancover. Really, are you for real? It was the monied fighting the monied (lib/con) and suggesting that Joyce would even welcome your "visible" presence (outside of getting the progressive vote out of the certain neighbourhoods) by going door to door in those trendy neighbourhoods smacks of "union misrecognition".

Tommy_Paine

I think magnaminity is well placed with defeated opponents who are people of principle and honour.  

It is missplaced on the prefidious.

Did you know Bennedict Arnold died penniless? No one in Britain-- not even John Company-- would employ him.  It's not a matter of an archaic version of honour.  It's just being smart about not placing trust in someone who has violated trust in the past.

So no, you certainly don't welcome those with a proven track record of perfidy back into the fold. 

They are deserters, and don't merit mention by name without subsequent expectoration,  nor should we entertain any intercourse with them.

Ever.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Who is Joyce?

vermonster

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Who is Joyce?

I would assume it is Joyce Murray, Liberal MP from Vancouver Quadra.

janfromthebruce

Joyce Murray

 

Liberal incumbent Joyce Murray has defeated Conservative challenger Deborah Meredith once again.

With 185 of 239 polls in, Murray has taken 41.5 percent of the votes.

Meredith has garnered 38.6 percent.

The NDP's Victor Edward Elkins has 14.4 percent.

Laura-Leah Shaw of the Greens has 5.5 percent.

 

Current Member of Parliament

Its Member of Parliament (MP) is Joyce Murray, (Liberal) a former BC cabinet minister and provincial Member of the Legislative Assembly. She was first elected in a March 2008 by-election, by a small margin. She was re-elected in the general election on October 14, 2008, by nearly 5000 votes.

[edit] Demographics

This is the sixth wealthiest riding in Canada, with an average family income of over $145,000. As of 2006, this riding had 37% immigrants, most of whom are Chinese-Canadians. The province's largest university, the University of British Columbia is situated in this riding. The major employer is the professional, scientific and technical service sector. The unemployment rate is 5.2%.[1] Nearly every house in this riding is worth over a million dollars

 

 

 

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Who is Joyce?

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

janfromthebruce

So Joyce Murray was in the Campbell govt, composed of social credit and right leaning Liberals - she is most definitely NOT progressive and represents the moneyed class - so electing and supporting her just meant that she would support the Cons when the vote came forward in a minority situation. Thus the progressive misrecognition!

adma

vermonster wrote:
With the dramatic collapse of the Liberal vote over past elections, and the Conservative rising to win a fairly strong majority over the same time, it makes no sense to talk of this riding as one as a strategic voting target in the current electoral environment. Barring a major reversal in party fortunes, incumbent retirement, or dramatic redistribution changes, it seems that EML has moved into the category of being a fairly safe Conservative seat. 

Maybe so, technically--but esp. if the NDP has a "three hundred and eight" strategy in the works (no, not as in the website), it's worth preparing for the unexpected.  After all, it went NDP provincially in 1990 (yeah, I know). and both St Thomas and the rump of urban London have a certain latent "NDP-friendliness" to them...

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