The NDP Resurgence in Quebec - Canto the Second

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ottawaobserver

Debater, I was just reading in this Liberal blog that Martin Cauchon is now planning a mayoralty run in Montreal for 2013.  You don't suppose he's given up on trying to unseat Mulcair, do you?

http://calgarygrit.blogspot.com/2010/08/lets-get-municipal.html

melovesproles

That's pretty clearly Calgary grit's sense of humour if the "My anonymous Liberal sources have recently confided to me..." setup wasn't obvious enough.  It's an ongoing joke on his blog.

NorthReport

It's getting crowded.

Are they both running for mayor? Laughing

 

Coderre seems to offer little vision for city

 

Liberal MP considers taking a run for the mayor's chair

 

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Coderre+seems+offer+little+vision+ci...

ottawaobserver

melovesproles wrote:

That's pretty clearly Calgary grit's sense of humour if the "My anonymous Liberal sources have recently confided to me..." setup wasn't obvious enough.  It's an ongoing joke on his blog.

OK, I see your point there, MLP.  I should have been able to tell the real anonymous sources from the humourous ones.

melovesproles

That's the blogger's point I believe-that the media's constant use of 'anonymous sources' to create headlines and narratives is a joke.  I sometimes read his blog as he's occasionally funny and not as obnoxiously shrill and partisan as your average Liberal or political blogger.  Anyways, it's a running gag on his blog, a google search for: 'anonymous sources calgarygrit' would provide several examples of that in seconds. 

Like this:

Quote:

 

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Signs Michael Ignatieff has Nothing to Worry About

 

I must admit, I'm a little disappointed in Angelo Persichilli's column today

Not because he speculates about the Liberals dumping Ignatieff. Not because he muses about who would replace Ignatieff (including...wait for it...Frank McKenna!).

No, the reason I'm disappointed is that he couldn't find a single anonymous source, Liberal strategist, or party insider to grumble about Ignatieff or muse about dumping him. Even the computer journalist would have been able to round up a "senior backroom operative" or two, off the record.

 

[snip]

Friday, October 09, 2009

Agreeing with Kory Teneycke: The First Post in a One Part Series

 

Harper's former communications director on anonymous sources:

 

[snip]

 

 

Monday, January 12, 2009

CTV Leadership Crisis Ready To Explode: Anonymous Source

 

The Hill Times begins speculating on who the next host of Mike Duffy Live On The Hill will be. And since the media loves baseless speculation about political leadership races, perhaps we should all begin some rampant speculation about this media leadership race, oui?

So, to get the ball rolling, I will confirm that anonymous CTV employees are none too happy about the selection of Graham Richardson as interim host (especially after earlier reports that John McCallum would get the job). Many programing strategists feel that in these turbulent political times, it is essential to have a permanent host in place so as to not appear divided. Senior members of Globemedia are privately concerned that not naming a permanent host by the time Harper's January 27th throne speech is read would create a leadership vacuum that Don Newman could exploit. As a result, many are quietly urging the appointment of Tom Clark as host, even if this means that not all the other candidates will be fully vetted for the job.

However, well-connected media insiders say that Rosemary Thompson would prefer a longer hiring period, as this would allow her grass roots campaign to gather momentum. Sources close to Rosie confirm that many viewers are concerned about Tom Clark's time outside of the country as Washington Bureau chief, and this could become her main campaign wedge issue.

Rest assured, we will all be following this CTV leadership crisis with bated breath.

bekayne

And to tie together anonymous sources & Jane Taber

http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/08/15/harpers-summer-according-to-vague-random-individuals/

 

It was, for the Prime Minister, "a good summer." This isn't a quote from a senior Conservative source or a veteran caucus member or a super-senior double-secret invisible party uber-insider. These are the words of Jane Taber herself. I'm as confused as you as to why she didn't demand anonymity from herself.

ottawaobserver

Yes, the Scott Feschuk column was just brilliant, wasn't it.

lagatta

By the way, I have friends who were strongly involved in Mulcair's campaign who are mightily pissed off at him now, about his scandalous stand on Israel/Palestine. Oh, they knew he was a Zionist of sorts, but thought he did have more commitment to human rights.

Debater

ottawaobserver wrote:

Debater, I was just reading in this Liberal blog that Martin Cauchon is now planning a mayoralty run in Montreal for 2013.  You don't suppose he's given up on trying to unseat Mulcair, do you?

http://calgarygrit.blogspot.com/2010/08/lets-get-municipal.html

That blog says a source claims he is considering a run.  That's different from "is now planning a mayoralty run".  And as others have pointed out above, it is probably b.s. anyway.  Wink

There will probably be a federal election before the next municipal election in Montreal, but like any politician he might consider more than one option for down the road.

But I don't think he is afraid of trying to "unseat" Mulcair.  Even a less prominent Liberal would have a chance at beating Mulcair in the next election.  Mulcair will always be vulnerable - regardless of who is running against him.

asterix

Debater wrote:

I'm not sure what it is about this riding that makes the NDP want to target it.

It's not because it's Hull--Aylmer; it's because it's Pierre Ducasse.

Just sayin'.

Debater

asterix wrote:

Debater wrote:

I'm not sure what it is about this riding that makes the NDP want to target it.

It's not because it's Hull--Aylmer; it's because it's Pierre Ducasse.

Just sayin'.

I think Pierre Ducasse ran for the NDP leadership back in 2003, yes?

But didn't he used to run in Manicouagan before moving down to Hull-Aylmer?  Guess he decided to play musical chairs like so many political candidates do.  Wink

Sean in Ottawa

Musical chairs?

Maybe he moved for other reasons.

Debater

Some candidates like to try another riding once they realize they can't get elected in one place, so they try another.  Look at Peter Kent.  He realized he couldn't win in St. Paul's against Carolyn Bennett so he moved over to Thornhill.  And look at Tony Clement.  After being defeated BOTH provincially and federally in Brampton, he moved up to Parry Sound-Muskoka.

ottawaobserver

Debater, he moved to Hull to work for Jack Layton on the Hill.  BTW, without realizing it, you just said that Hull/Aylmer was winnable for the NDP.

Unionist

lagatta wrote:

By the way, I have friends who were strongly involved in Mulcair's campaign who are mightily pissed off at him now, about his scandalous stand on Israel/Palestine. Oh, they knew he was a Zionist of sorts, but thought he did have more commitment to human rights.

Sounds like me.

Debater

ottawaobserver wrote:

Debater, he moved to Hull to work for Jack Layton on the Hill.  BTW, without realizing it, you just said that Hull/Aylmer was winnable for the NDP.

Not really.  I was pointing out that some candidates like to move to other ridings that they think are more winnable after losing somewhere else.

Apparently that isn't the reason Ducasse moved though.  If he moved to work in Ottawa, that makes sense as well.  Thanks for the info.

adma

Debater wrote:
Not really.  I was pointing out that some candidates like to move to other ridings that they think are more winnable after losing somewhere else.

So?  Maybe Hull-Aylmer *is* more winnable than Manicouagan.  What's it to ya?

NorthReport

The thing is, Quebec used to be (past tense) a stronger Liberal base of support, so when we see the present low Liberal polling there, it must make Liberal supporters want to cry. 

Year - Liberal support

'08 GE - 24%, 14 seats

'06 GE - 21%, 13 seats

'04 GE - 34%, 21 seats

'00 GE - 44%, 36 seats

Debater

Not really sure what your point is NR.  You're just pointing out what everyone already knows.

The Liberals had very good numbers in Quebec in 2000 because Jean Chretien was at his height and then they took a tumble in 2004 and 2006 because of the catastrophic effect of the Sponsorship Scandal.  All the gains the Liberals had made under Chretien were wiped out.  Then they started improving again in 2008.  It's going to take the Liberals a while before they can get back to the numbers they had in 2000.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

The other problem the Liberals face in Quebec these days is that, frankly, there's no good reason for anyone in QC who still self-identifies as a "Trudeau Liberal" to bother voting Liberal anymore.  Even Lil' Justin is just a Martinite at heart and will never have what it takes to step into his father's shoes.  Everything Pierre Trudeau stood for is now extinct within Quebec Liberalism(let alone among Liberal politics in the ROC).

Without those votes, there will simply never be enough support for the Liberals in Quebec to lift them anywhere past their current pathetic level.

Debater

Ken B, your post seems based more on personal opinion than on objective analysis.  You sound very angry and emotional in your language ("pathetic").  I'm also not sure if Justin would agree with the description of him as a "Martinite" (whatever that means).

Having said that, I do agree with your point that the federalist vs. separatist dynamic has changed in Quebec over the past two decades.  Chantal Hébert and others have also pointed this out.  It is affecting not just the traditional federalist parties like the Liberals, but also parties like the BQ who are experiencing declining vote share as well.  Quebecers are not enthusiastic about any of the parties right now, and all of the parties are going to have to re-define what they stand for.

NorthReport

Debater,

Don't you remember when you previously ran into trouble here, making what comes across as derogatory comments about other posters, rather than what the rest of us do here, which is sharing own own personal opinions on the thread subject.

I didn't flag your comments, hoping you might rethink your strategy here, and request you stick to commenting on the topics under discussion. Thanks.

 

Debater wrote:

Ken B, your post seems based more on personal opinion than on objective analysis.  You sound very angry and emotional in your language ("pathetic").  I'm also not sure if Justin would agree with the description of him as a "Martinite" (whatever that means).

Having said that, I do agree with your point that the federalist vs. separatist dynamic has changed in Quebec over the past two decades.  Chantal Hébert and others have also pointed this out.  It is affecting not just the traditional federalist parties like the Liberals, but also parties like the BQ who are experiencing declining vote share as well.  Quebecers are not enthusiastic about any of the parties right now, and all of the parties are going to have to re-define what they stand for.

Debater

There's nothing derogatory in my comments, and my tone here is usually quite polite compared to a lot of other people's.  And my post was responding to the topic under discussion, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.  I stated that the poster's response was an emotional and angry one rather than a calm and reasoned one.  There's nothing wrong with pointing that out.

NorthReport wrote:

Debater,

Don't you remember when you previously ran into trouble here, making what comes across as derogatory comments about other posters, rather than what the rest of us do here, which is sharing own own personal opinions on the thread subject.

I didn't flag your comments, hoping you might rethink your strategy here, and request you stick to commenting on the topics under discussion. Thanks.

 

Debater wrote:

Ken B, your post seems based more on personal opinion than on objective analysis.  You sound very angry and emotional in your language ("pathetic").  I'm also not sure if Justin would agree with the description of him as a "Martinite" (whatever that means).

Having said that, I do agree with your point that the federalist vs. separatist dynamic has changed in Quebec over the past two decades.  Chantal Hébert and others have also pointed this out.  It is affecting not just the traditional federalist parties like the Liberals, but also parties like the BQ who are experiencing declining vote share as well.  Quebecers are not enthusiastic about any of the parties right now, and all of the parties are going to have to re-define what they stand for.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

For whatever it's worth, I wasn't at all angry and I'm not angry now.

It's not anger to note that the current Liberal vote share in Quebec is low and isn't going to increase.  And, from what I've seen, Justin has said nothing to question the Liberal Party's embrace of austerity and militarism, therefore we can pretty much assume he's a Paul Martin type.  There's nothing in Justin's political views that reflects the values his father held at his best.

It's just simple empirical observation-and, apparently, this observation touched a nerve with you, Debater.  That happens sometimes.

Lord Palmerston

Looks like the NDP is looking at a serious run in...[url=http://www.cjnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=19776&It... Royal.[/url]

Quote:
As a lifelong supporter of Israel, Jeff Itcush says the New Democratic Party’s (NDP) endorsement of his candidacy in the next federal election is proof that the party is open to people who will not hesitate to stand by that country.

Granted, Itcush has not been handed a plum riding. He’ll be running in Mount Royal, which has been firmly in the grasp of Irwin Cotler for 11 years, and a Liberal stronghold since 1940.

But none other than NDP party leader Jack Layton, as well as deputy leader Thomas Mulcair, spoke at Itcush’s nomination meeting Aug. 23 at a Snowdon restaurant. About 120 people turned out for the event, which, Itcush observed, was probably the largest number of NDPers that had ever gathered in one place in the constituency.

Itcush, who lives in the riding, insists he is not just a sacrificial lamb, and will be campaigning full out. The party is giving him the support he needs, he said.

“Five years ago, people were saying the NDP could not get elected,” he said, referring to Mulcair’s upset in a 2007 byelection. Mulcair, the sole NDP MP from Quebec and only the second ever, is the one who encouraged Itcush to take on what may appear a thankless job.

Itcush, 47, has taught history and social studies at Bialik High School since 1994. He is a past president and current first vice-president of the Federation of Teachers of Jewish Schools, the union at the major day schools, and its chief negotiator.

He is also on the boards of Quebec Jewish Congress and Canadian Jewish Congress. QJC executive director Daniel Amar and public affairs director Jéremie Tapiero were among those attending the nomination.

“I think the party’s stance on Israel has changed in the past three years; it has moderated with Mulcair’s presence and with the leadership,” Itcush said in an interview. Mulcair’s wife is Jewish, and Outremont has a significant Jewish population.

ottawaobserver

Interesting bio:

Quote:

Jeff Itcush was brought up in southern Saskatchewan and has resided in Montreal since 1989.  He has studied at universities in Saskatchewan and Quebec.  Most of his professional life has been in the field of education.  He is former President of the Federation of Teachers of Jewish Schools and has worked in labour negotiations and advocacy.  Itcush has worked with several community groups and has done political organizing at Federal and municipal levels in Montreal.  He has been a candidate for elections at those levels.   He has traveled widely and has ongoing interests in labour relations, civil rights and ethno-religious rapprochement.   He has a particular interest in First Nations culture.  Itcush is married, resides in Montreal and enjoys performing on guitar in his leisure time.

ETA: More here.  He has run for the party twice before in other Quebec seats (in 1997 and 2000), I notice.

Debater

The NDP isn't polling very well in Quebec in the latest poll:

BQ - 37

Liberals - 28

Conservatives - 15

Greens - 10

NDP - 9

 

http://www.harrisdecima.com/news/releases/201008/905-conservatives-lead-...

NorthReport

More meaningless summer political silliness.

Sorry to burst your balloon, but NDP usually do better when the results are from a pollster that doesn't have historical connections to the Liberals.

Do a little polling company research, like we have done here at Rabble over the years, and you might have a better grasp of what's going on.  Wink

Debater

Allan Gregg, who runs Harris-Decima, is a Conservative, not a Liberal.  He worked for many years for Brian Mulroney and the P.C. party.

You can't discount every poll you don't like by claiming it is biased.

ottawaobserver

Ah yes, Debater, but you have to take into account the Liberal credentials of the other Harris-Decima principals, Bruce Anderson and his brother Doug.  I don't think it influences their numbers, but I do think it influences both the questions they decide to ask sometimes, and also sometimes what they choose to emphasize in their analysis.

What I don't put stock in is drawing conclusions from regional sub-samples of small-ish national polls conduced by english-language pollsters in Quebec.  This is why the 2000 N samples that Leger and Crop do in Quebec are of most interest.

So, no-one here is freaking out.

NorthReport

Debator,

I'm just shocked I tell you, just shocked, that you would leave out the Harris-Decima / Liberal connections as mentioned in the comments made by OO. Laughing

Do you think the results may be skewed, and are being used to try and manipulate the voters. Ya think!

We have done substantial research here on Canada's pollsters.

Why don't you share with us your extensive knoweledge of the historial political connections bewteen Canada's political parties and the pollsters? 

ottawaobserver wrote:

Ah yes, Debater, but you have to take into account the Liberal credentials of the other Harris-Decima principals, Bruce Anderson and his brother Doug.  I don't think it influences their numbers, but I do think it influences both the questions they decide to ask sometimes, and also sometimes what they choose to emphasize in their analysis.

What I don't put stock in is drawing conclusions from regional sub-samples of small-ish national polls conduced by english-language pollsters in Quebec.  This is why the 2000 N samples that Leger and Crop do in Quebec are of most interest.

So, no-one here is freaking out.

ottawaobserver

I'm not claiming the results of any poll are being skewed, though, by the way.  I'm just not freaking out about small regional sub-samples of small national samples, that have a very high margin of error and have fluctuated wildly.

Stockholm

Itcush sounds like a great candidate and a very good fit for the riding of Mount Royal.I wonder how long before a few people start threads about "Zionists" (sic.) infiltrating the NDP?

I should correct one thing though - Itcush commented that the 120 people at the event he had was the largest gathering of New Democrats ever in Mount Royal. That MIGHT be true - but let's not forget that back in 1965 a certain political philosophy professor names Charles Taylor ran in Mount Royal for the NDP against his personal friend and fellow professor Pierre Trudeau. Trudeau won 28,000 to 15,000 - but that 15,000 was a pretty impressive vote total for the NDP in that riding.

Lord Palmerston

I guess a few of Fred Rose's old supporters from Laurier may have moved over to the NDP (kind of like how I suspect a lot of J.B. Salsberg's old supporters in Spadina ended up voting for David Lewis in York South).

Debater

ottawaobserver wrote:

ETA: More here.  He has run for the party twice before in other Quebec seats (in 1997 and 2000), I notice.

Another candidate to add to the list of those who like to play musical chairs.  Wink

What will be interesting in Mount Royal in the next election will be what happens between 2nd and 3rd place.  The NDP can't realistically expect to win the riding, but perhaps it can beat the Conservatives for 2nd place like it did in Westmount in 2008.  I think the Conservative vote may drop in Montreal in the next election based on current polls.  The Conservatives actually performed fairly well in Mount Royal in 2008 and were able to get over 25% of the vote.  I think that number could go down unless they improve their Quebec numbers.

NorthReport

 

Duceppe takes aim at trending NDP in Quebec

 

 

Far from troubled, Mulcair said he was delighted to see Duceppe attacking the NDP to such length because it indicates that the NDP's rise in the province has him worried. He noted that in recent polling the NDP has pulled level with the Conservatives in the province and suggested that progressive federalists who previously voted Bloc by default for social policy reasons are coming over to the NDP.

"This is making Duceppe nervous. He knows we're starting to eat into his plate."

Layton on Tuesday said enough of his rural MPs will support his compromise and gun registry will likely survive Commons vote.

 

http://www.montrealgazette.com/sports/Duceppe+takes+trending+Quebec/3523...

nicky

Although the numbers are encouraging for the NDP they reveal a consistent level of support accross the province. 18% in the Montreal region, 15% in the Quebec City Region and 15% in the rest of the province.

By contrast the Conservtives with only  slightly larger overall support have geographical concentrartions that will safeguard their seat total. They are weak in Montreal but get 37% (vs 28% for the Bloq in Quebec) and 24% in the rest of the province (vs 39%) for the Bloq. The Cons also get a surprisingly high 29% from Allophones.

Two questions; Are the Cons really making  inroads in the Allophone vote? This means principally West Montreal. If they have only 16% in Montreal as a whole this might indicate they are weak in the east but strong in the west.Is there other evidence of this?

Secondly, what ridings does Leger include in the Quebec City region?

Stockholm

Just to add to the info on the Leger poll, the BQ at 36% is down 1% from last month and the Green party has plunged from 7% to 3% (I guess the "Laraque bounce" flamed out pretty fast).

ottawaobserver

Well, I expect this is the trend he was worried about:  NDP up to 17% in Quebec, says Leger Marketing.

N=1000, Sept 13-16, Quebec only, of course

BQ 36% (-1) Libs 22% (-2) CPC 21% (+2) NDP 17% (+4 !!!) GPC 7% (-3)

[ETA further details from Stockholm's post below]

The pollster, Christian Bourque, also notes that Layton and Mulcair are very popular, and says the gun registry issue appears to be having little effect on that.

NorthReport

Sweet! Smile

The NPD should be able to bump that up to 20%, or more, in Quebec during the actual election campaign which will probably take place in Spring, 2011. A reasonable forecast is 3-10 seats for the NPD next time in Quebec.

 

Vision Critical (AR) poll released today

 

Quote:
 In Quebec, the Bloc continues to dominate (38%), with the three federalist parties far behind (Lib. 22%, NDP 17%, Con. 17%).

Stockholm

A New CROP poll of 1,000 Quebecers has more evidence of the NDP upswing in Quebec. They have the BQ at 32% (down 6% from the last election), the Liberal and Tories with 22 or 23% each and the NDP at 18% (up six points from the '08 election)!
It seems to me that between this and the recent province-wide Leger poll there is more and more evidence that the NDP is doing very well in Quebec - contrary to the conventional wisdom that the NDP would suffer in Quebec in particular as a result of the gun registry!
Looking at the latest "cycle" of poLls it seems like counter-intuitively the NDP has taken a bit of a hit in English Canada but is doing better than ever in Quebec. Go figure.

Krago
NorthReport

Thanks Krago.

So with a reliable unaffiliated pollster in Quebec, as opposed to pollsters that have LPC connections, its the NPD and the Conservatives that are gaining ground in Quebec. How could that be! Laughing 

Bloc - 32%

Cons - 23%

Libs - 23%

NPD - 18%

That's 6% higher than the NPD election results in the 2008 general election in Quebec.

Is this the best polling ever for the NPD in Quebec?

Stockholm

The best polling EVER in Quebec for the NDP was in in the mid-80s before the BQ existed when Broadbent was riding high. I know that in late 2007 and early 2008 after the win in Outremont and when Dion was really dragging the Liberals down - the NDP was in the high teens in some CROP and Leger polls - but I can't remember if they ever hit 18% at that time.

bekayne

Stockholm wrote:

The best polling EVER in Quebec for the NDP was in in the mid-80s before the BQ existed when Broadbent was riding high. I know that in late 2007 and early 2008 after the win in Outremont and when Dion was really dragging the Liberals down - the NDP was in the high teens in some CROP and Leger polls - but I can't remember if they ever hit 18% at that time.

They were at 18% in an August 2009 CROP poll

bekayne

Here are the results of the CROP poll compared with the last one of theirs I could find, from January:

BQ     32  (34,  -2)

Lib     23  (24,  -1)

Con   23  (21,  +2)

NDP   18  (17,  +1)

adma

Stockholm wrote:

The best polling EVER in Quebec for the NDP was in in the mid-80s before the BQ existed when Broadbent was riding high.

And the ultimate demonstration of that: Phil Edmonston's byelection win--in what would soon be Bloc landslide territory...

NorthReport

The NPD's recent surge in polling support in Quebec is quite encouraging.

In the last election the NPD garnered only 12% of the vote in Quebec, and elected one MP, Mulcair in Outremont. With their current polling of 18% in Quebec, and the election still 6 months away, the forecast of 3-10 seats for the NPD in Quebec is quite reasonable, and very doable.   Kudos to the Layton-Mulcair team!    Smile

NorthReport

The NDP/NPD has finally moved into the technological age, and not a moment too soon either. Money can't necessarily buy happiness, but it sure can help in certain areas. Laughing

 

Thomas Mulcair

 

Winning in Quebec

http://www.ndp.ca/council-2010-live

 

NorthReport

Will the mod squad please close out this thread as it now has 100 posts and has been continued here:

 

http://www.rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/npd-surging-quebec-part-3-0

 

Thanks.

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