No more Dr. Prof. Keith Martin

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Centrist

ottawaobserver wrote:

I think there are three people running for the Liberal nomination in that riding. There was something on Twitter last night about it. Did you come across any other names, Centrist?

 

I ran across that article last night with only Szpak's name mentioned. Frankly, I thought the Lib nomination would remain vacant since it was more of a Keith Martin seat. And since when in BC has there been a contested federal Lib nomination? Laughing

I thought that you were joking but you are right. Another article just came online and the Libs actually do have 3 people contesting the nomination. Who woulda thunk?

1. Lillian Szpak - Langford councillor;

2. Edward D. Hodgins - former fire chief in Ontario and Alberta and assistant deputy minister and fire commissioner in B.C

3. Dr. Ian Mackenzie - family physician (former marine biologist and search and rescue for the Canadian Coast Guard);

http://www.timescolonist.com/Three+candidates+running+federal+Liberal+no...

I think that Randall should take a leaf out of Catherine Bell's notebook. Bell has been door-knocking, holding public meetings, and been in the North Island media almost non-stop over the past ~2 years in order to keep up her profile. (prior to her announcement)

 

ottawaobserver

Looks like Layton will be there on January 23.

Lens Solution

Martin was not perfect, but I was hoping he stayed on for one more term until Harper was out of office.

As a member of the LGBT community I admired the pro-gay rights positions he took, and I'm concerned that the riding will now go Conservative.

haydukelives

Door knocking for Garrison would be a good idea. He comes off best in person as a good listener with sincerity. I don't think his image has been that well developed in the riding (people aren't aware of his criminal justice [and to a lesser extent defence] credentials). Typically the riding association in this area has been weak (Victoria is the strong ra and needs to lend EJF a hand), so there is plenty of work potentially to do. While I expect the Tories to win this riding given their close finish in 2008, it is considered a 3-way race. Locally, the NDP probably has enough cred to pick up support from both of the other two campaigns. The HST issue would be interesting to poll in the riding and local MLAs will certainly be supporting Garrison. It will be interesting to see what not having a mid-campaign NDP "sex scandal" in the neighbouring riding or BC NDP organisational problems (e.g. having timely delivery of campaign signs) would do for the NDP this time around.

KenS

I have no local knowledge at all. But I do know a lot of histories of riding associations that were relatively weak until the NDP had its first really good shot. It brings people out of the woodwork, and the party provides the organizational 'glue' for that instantly expanded activist base.

While it has been a 3 way race, the Liberals only got 15% before Martin crossed the floor. Looking at patterns elsewhere in BC, that big a drop in the Liberal vote probably would not help the NDP. But I think this is a riding where it is particularly hazardous to predict the impact of those dynamics.

ottawaobserver

All three provincial ridings are NDP-held, so I don't buy that there's no local organization. Layton is in town this weekend for the nomination meeting, and to do a fundraiser for the three area campaigns (and probably also lovingly cajole our provincial cousins to all come on board). The Juan de Fuca MLA John Horgan is running for the provincial party leadership, but both he and Saanich MLA Lana Popham, who I believe was one of the baker's dozen, are being featured in promotions of the fundraiser.

As to Ken's point, at least some of the initial bump in Liberal support from 1988 to 1993 came from out of Dave Barrett's vote. Was it that Liberals had defected to support him in 1988, or that some NDPers switched to the Liberals in 1993: who knows.

Stockholm

Lens Solution wrote:

Martin was not perfect, but I was hoping he stayed on for one more term until Harper was out of office.

As a member of the LGBT community I admired the pro-gay rights positions he took, and I'm concerned that the riding will now go Conservative.

I think you are giving DOCTOR PROFESSOR Martrin far too much credit. For 11 years he was a loyal Reform/Canadian Alliance MP from 1993 to 2004 and during that time he voted 100% in lockstep with his party leadership to oppose any and all expansion of gay rights - even though the party supposedly had a policy of allowing free votes. Since that time he stopped being viciously homophobib but was hardly what i would call a crusader for gay rights. By far his biggest claim to fame over the last 6 years has been as the point man in the Liberal caucuys for destroying the public health care sysrtem!

GOOD RIDDANCE to pieces of garbage like him!!

haydukelives

If you're concerned about the Conservatives winning, why not provide extra support to Randall Garrison? He is openly gay and will readily defend GLBT rights.

Fidel

That's okay with me. I wasn't looking forward to having doctor-professor Dean Martin as minister of healthcare privatization anyway.  Maybe their next move will be bring in T4 healthkare where everyone has the right to live a life worth living.

Lens Solution

haydukelives wrote:

If you're concerned about the Conservatives winning, why not provide extra support to Randall Garrison? He is openly gay and will readily defend GLBT rights.

I'm planning to do that.  I just think Martin's departure could lead to the Conservatives winning since the Con almost won last time.

I didn't like Martin when he was part of the Reform/Alliance but he did come around and support gay marriage when he broke from them.

Stockholm

I very much doubt the Tories will win this seat. In fact they would have had a better chance of winning if Martin had run again and kept the Liberal vote artificially high causing a three way split. I think that with Martin out of the way, the Liberal vote will plummet to the low teens and Garrison will win my a comfortable margin.  

Hunky_Monkey

Stockholm wrote:

I think you are giving DOCTOR PROFESSOR Martrin far too much credit. For 11 years he was a loyal Reform/Canadian Alliance MP from 1993 to 2004 and during that time he voted 100% in lockstep with his party leadership to oppose any and all expansion of gay rights - even though the party supposedly had a policy of allowing free votes. Since that time he stopped being viciously homophobib but was hardly what i would call a crusader for gay rights. By far his biggest claim to fame over the last 6 years has been as the point man in the Liberal caucuys for destroying the public health care sysrtem!

GOOD RIDDANCE to pieces of garbage like him!!

If I recall correctly, he voted with the Reform caucus to deny equal rights whenever something came up in the House.  How did Martin vote on the first SSM bill? 

Interesting to note... according to wikipedia, only 2 MP's at the 1994 Reform Party convention spoke out against a motion to deny same-sex couples the same rights as heterosexual couples... Jan Brown and... Stephen Harper.

Lens Solution

Stockholm wrote:

I very much doubt the Tories will win this seat. In fact they would have had a better chance of winning if Martin had run again and kept the Liberal vote artificially high causing a three way split. I think that with Martin out of the way, the Liberal vote will plummet to the low teens and Garrison will win my a comfortable margin.  

Interesting possibility.

Was Garrison always planning to run in E-JDF, or did this develop when Keith Martin announced his retirement?

remind remind's picture

Garrison has run there before but did not last election. Like the guy and worked on his campaign too.

adma

Well, didn't he parachute himself into Van Centre until withdrawing for Michael Byers, or something?

Stockholm

I think Garrison had actually moved to Vancouver when he decided to run in Vanmcouver Centre, but then he quit as candidate when he took a new job and it was after that that Byers decided to run.

ottawaobserver

The Goldsteam paper, I think it was, said that Garrison had first been approached to run again about a year ago, but wanted to finish out most of his municipal term before switching his focus. My guess is that they've been expecting Martin to step down for awhile, but weren't 100% sure of when.

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