Quebec mayor accuses Tories of misleading people on arena

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Quebec mayor accuses Tories of misleading people on arena

Breaking story at

http://www.cbc.ca/news/

Lens Solution
Aristotleded24

Harper may have misled people about the opportunity, but on the whole I can't say I'm sorry that no federal dollars will be used to bring back NHL hockey to Quebec City. There is the principle of spending federal dollars on private sports teams that average people cannot afford to see. On top of that, with he feds recently saying no to federal funding for a sports facility in Regina (again, a decision with which I agree in principle) saying yes to Quebec and no to Regina on something like this will anger the Western Alienation crowd, possibly resulting in Reform II that quite likely would openly advocate separation, and for no good reason.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I like this bit from the metronews link:

The Bloc wasted little time testing a possible campaign line with a release titled, "Conservatives dupe the people of Quebec."

"The Conservatives created expectations and promises, but when it comes time to deliver the goods, they bail," Bloc MP Christiane Gagnon said in the statement.

One prominent pollster sees possible repercussions.

Sylvain Gauthier, vice-president at the Montreal-based polling firm CROP, declined to share details of a soon-to-be-released survey but was unequivocal when asked whether there would be consequences.

"Yes, based on what people in the region are saying," he replied, without offering the numbers of a just-completed poll.

"There will surely be an impact."

Lens Solution

Does this hopefully mean the Conservatives will lose some of their Quebec seats?

That might be one of the best ways to stop them from getting a majority.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

One can only hope.Smile

Stockholm

I think that Tories grossly mishandled this file. For six months they left Quebec City and the Tory Mps from that city twisting in the wind while Harper pulled pulled daisy petals "shall I pay for the arena in  QC, shall I not pay for it...". The moment this story first surfaced in the late summer when those idiotic Tory MPs posed for a picture wearing those Nordiques sweaters - Harper shoudl have stated unequivocally that there would be no funding of the arena. That way it would have been old news by now. Instead, the Tories have made things time times worse for themselves by dragging thsi out for so long. I'm glad!! 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I'm glad, too. The Cons are having another bad week.

bouchecl

The problem is not as much that Josée Verner et al did not deliver some federal money (although it points to their utter uselessness), it's the fact that the Conservatives delayed the process by a few months by posing in Nordiques livery and equivocating in public while sitting on their asses in Ottawa -- on Harper's orders?

Régis Labeaume feels like he's been crossed and decieved by Ottawa and our little emperor will make them pay for that. Although he took a few hits on this file, he's got a lot of political capital to spend. If I was Josée Verner, Sylvie Boucher,  Daniel Petit, Steven Blaney or Jacques Gourde I'd brush up my résumé.

Lens Solution

Does Régis Labeaume have the ability to do what Danny Williams did?  I guess that is the question.  Does he have a lot of personal popularity whereby he can get voters in a concentrated geographic region to vote en masse against the Conservatives and take away their seats?

ottawaobserver

Hey, centrist party guy. We've all seen your posts, so you don't need to post them in every single thread. I imagine there will be a limited take-up in your offer to join a party between the Liberals and Conservatives from folks who post to this board, but your point has been made.

bouchecl

Lens Solution wrote:

Does Régis Labeaume have the ability to do what Danny Williams did?  I guess that is the question.  Does he have a lot of personal popularity whereby he can get voters in a concentrated geographic region to vote en masse against the Conservatives and take away their seats?

Interesting analogy. Labeaume was elected with more than 80% of the votes in 2009, and uses the same populist style as Williams, mixed with a bit of Jean Drapeau's megalomania. Although a lot of people locally are critical of the publicly-funded "multifunctional amphitheatre", he is much more popular than the no-name conservatives present in the Quebec City area. No wonder why Verner seemed so worried.

Lens Solution

There was this Segma projection done in January that showed Verner trailing to the BQ in Louis St Laurent, and the same for Sylvie Boucher in Beauport-Limoilou, so we'll have to see whether the Bloc is able to capitalize on the opportunities in the next election:

 

http://www.punditsguide.ca/img/Segma_QueCity_2011_Jan21-14_byRid.jpg

bouchecl

Lens Solution wrote:

There was this Segma projection done in January that showed Verner trailing to the BQ in Louis St Laurent, and the same for Sylvie Boucher in Beauport-Limoilou, so we'll have to see whether the Bloc is able to capitalize on the opportunities in the next election:

http://www.punditsguide.ca/img/Segma_QueCity_2011_Jan21-14_byRid.jpg

With that kind of MoE (9-10%), results are to be taken with a huge grain of salt. However, some recent Léger and CROP polls show the Bloc is ticking up in the Quebec City metro area, where they were hovering in the 30% range. Now, you see them at 33-34% and higher regionally. There is already a movement to the Bloc, and it could have consequences on all area MPs and on the future of André Arthur, the conservatively-aligned 'independent' in Portneuf.   

Lens Solution

Yeah, Arthur is not really an Independent.  He votes with the Conservatives on almost everything, and has basically upheld their whole agenda.  I wouldn't mind seeing him go.

As for the Cons in Quebec City, things may have gotten worse for them since the above poll was taken, so perhaps they have dropped further.  It will be interesting to see the next Quebec poll that is expected soon.

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

Centrist Party, not only does it cost money to advertise on rabble, I'm not sure we'd accept your money even if you offered to pay for it. I don't think you have your demographic quite right. No more posting adverts to your Centrist Party project. We get the message. Any further links will be removed.

bekayne
bouchecl

Just to confirm what was previously said in this thread,  a new Léger poll released this morning (n=598; MoE: 4%) confirms a strong disapproval of the federal government (72% disapproving Ottawa's decision) and a clear move towards the Bloc in Quebec City.

Bloc: 44%

Cons: 20%

LPC: 17%

NDP: 17%

Pogo Pogo's picture

If Phoenix moves to Winnipeg (because they have an arena), that will really stoke the flames.

NorthReport

 Merci bouchecl

So it looks like the Cons have dropped quite a bit and are going to lose some seats in that region - good on the Bloc.

Sean in Ottawa

Pogo do you mean the flames or the Flames? Not sure the good folks in Calgary will care ;-)

Stockholm

bouchecl wrote:

Just to confirm what was previously said in this thread,  a new Léger poll released this morning (n=598; MoE: 4%) confirms a strong disapproval of the federal government (72% disapproving Ottawa's decision) and a clear move towards the Bloc in Quebec City.

Bloc: 44%

Cons: 20%

LPC: 17%

NDP: 17%

At first I assumed this was a poll of the whole province of Quebec and not just Quebec City since these are very typical of the numbers we usually see in province-wide Quebec surveys. It says that this is a poll of "Quebec City" as opposed to "la region de Quebec" which means that it may or may not include ridings like Portneuf-Jacques Cartier or Levis-Chute de la Chaudiere. BUT, numbers like this do suggest a potential Tory wipeout in Quebec which would mean losing Limoilou, Louis St. Laurent, Charlesbourg and a probably more. If the Tories end up losing 6 or 7 seven Quebec seats - it means that getting a majority involves gaining almost 20 seats in ROC instead of just 12.

Sean in Ottawa

From the article  it is Quebec city only. That is a major collapse and more support for the Liberals there than I would normally expect

NorthReport

The Bloc will take every seat now in that area.

Lens Solution

bouchecl wrote:

Just to confirm what was previously said in this thread,  a new Léger poll released this morning (n=598; MoE: 4%) confirms a strong disapproval of the federal government (72% disapproving Ottawa's decision) and a clear move towards the Bloc in Quebec City.

Bloc: 44%

Cons: 20%

LPC: 17%

NDP: 17%

Is this a poll for the whole province, or just the Quebec City region?

Sean in Ottawa

just Quebec City region from the article...

NorthReport

It looks like the Bloc will take every seat in that area as they jumped 16% in support from previous poll

BillBC

Do we conclude from all this that Harper was a fool for not pouring money into the arena?

Sean in Ottawa

no he would have lost more elsewhere had he gone ahead

JKR

Harper must regret that his Quebec City MP's donned Quebec Nordiques jerseys and proclaimed to the city that they were going to help Quebec City get a brand new arena to attract an NHL team back to Quebec City. As it turned out the Con Mp's couldn't deliver on their promise and the province and city went ahead without them.

So now the BQ is in position to make big seat gains and are thus unwilling to toss the Conservatives a life preserver in the form of a deal on the budget. Because of these missteps, Harper has no control over the timing of an election. As far as determining when the next election occurs, Harper is now at the mercy of the NDP and Liberals.

Lens Solution

So do you think the BQ is looking at this poll in detail tonight?  Will it really be a major factor in their decision?

In the 2008 election, the BQ was only able to defeat one Conservative MP despite the arts controversy, so can it be risky to assume a big loss in QC seats for the Cons?

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I think it's in the best interests of the BQ to go to an election sooner than later while there is still anger in Quebec City - that is, unless the Cons load the Budget with megatons of goodies aimed at getting BQ support. Probably very unlikely.

 

ETA: I suspect the Cons want an election, despite their public pronouncements to the contrary. They may know something about what's coming down the pike that the rest of us know nothing about.

Lens Solution

What could be coming down the pike?  Tax cuts and goodies for Canadians in the budget?

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I don't know - I'm not in Harper's inner circle. Tongue out

Lens Solution

Anyways, hopefully the BQ will take a number of seats away from the Cons.  It may be the best way to prevent a Conservative majority.

Aristotleded24

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
Pogo do you mean the flames or the Flames? Not sure the good folks in Calgary will care ;-)

LOL!

Lens Solution

Here is ThreeHundredEight's analysis of the Leger poll and the Conservative seats at risk:

 

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/03/no-arena-funding-puts-two-...

nicky

While this poll is welcome news it still indicates  potential for a Conservative recovery in Quebec City.

If the arena decision is reversed, according to Leger, the Conservative vote rises from 20 to 28%, reducing the gap with the Bloq from 24 to 11%. One can assume that in any event the arena fiasco will fade somewhat as an issue during the campaign.

Secondly, the poll also indicates that the ADQ are in the high 20s and in a virtual tie withe the Parti Quecois in the city. This suggests a sizable sentiment for right wing poicitics that Harper might exploit.

I have been intrigued by the Conservative success in Quebec over the past couple elections. It has been mirrored by the ADQ strength there as well. I have never heard a convincing reason for this. I would have thought that a cultured well-educated provincial capital with plenty of civil servants would not be  fertile ground for right wing politics.

The only explanation I have heard is that Quebec City has been the home of a number of popular right wing radio commentators (such as Andre Arthur) and that this has moulded public opinion.

I would be very interested in any other insights.

KenS

I dont know about Quebec in particular nicky, but here is one generalized trend looked at in the light of Quebec in particular.

More so than big cities like Toronto and Montreal, unambiguously "regional cities" like Quebec and Halifax are collecting points for the demographic emptying of the hinterlands. In the case of Quebec, that is especially the francophone and often unilingual 'pur lain' who are the Conservatives best demographic in Quebec.

That is a considerable chunk of the area population, add in even a very modest 20-25% support among the rest, and thats plenty to win FPTP elections.

Stockholm

nicky wrote:

While this poll is welcome news it still indicates  potential for a Conservative recovery in Quebec City.

If the arena decision is reversed, according to Leger, the Conservative vote rises from 20 to 28%, reducing the gap with the Bloq from 24 to 11%. One can assume that in any event the arena fiasco will fade somewhat as an issue during the campaign.

If there is one thing i guarantee we will NOT see during the election campaign its Harper addressing a crowd in Quebec and saying "guess, what I changed my mind and i will pay for your arena after all". and BTW, according to that poll even if the Tories narrow the gap in QC with the BQ from 24% to 11% - they still lose most of their seats - that is still a big swing away from what they got there in the last election.

bouchecl

nicky wrote:

While this poll is welcome news it still indicates  potential for a Conservative recovery in Quebec City.

[...]

The only explanation I have heard is that Quebec City has been the home of a number of popular right wing radio commentators (such as Andre Arthur) and that this has moulded public opinion.

I would be very interested in any other insights.

One thing to keep in mind here: the populist radio announcers in the Quebec City media market are the most radical proponents of the return of the Quebec Nordiques in the city. CHOI and FM 93 have been deeply involved in this in the last 6 months with the 60,000 strong Marche bleue, the J'ai ma place seat sale ($15 million) and the busing of 1,000 fans in Uniondale, NY to demonstrate at a Islanders-Trashers game a few months ago.

What's the primary audience of these stations? Rabid hockey fans who voted conservative twice in Charlesbourg, Beauport, Vanier, Sainte-Foy, L'Ancienne-Lorette, Saint-Augustin-de-Desmaures and Lévis...

In this instance, hockey trumps politics.

Lens Solution

Is Harper trying to go on the offensive in Quebec now?

 

Party’s over for the Bloc Québécois, Harper says

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/partys-over-for-the-bloc-qu...

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

From the above link:

The separatist Bloc Québécois is a party without a mission and is on the cusp of becoming obsolete because support for Quebec sovereignty has fallen dramatically, Prime Minister Stephen Harper says.

 

I think that's bullsh*t. If Harper wins a majority, I think it'll push this province back into full-on sovereignty mode, because no one here I know of wants the Cons with a majority.

WyldRage

It's always the same message, first from the libs, then from the cons: "the Bloc is useless".

 

Never worked, never will.

 

Instead of accusing others of being useless and powerless, they should present their plans. All I'm hearing from the CPC and the LPC is "Hey! At least we're not the other guy!"

N.Beltov N.Beltov's picture

This is also a sports strategy called "play not to lose" and is commonly used in ice hockey as well.

KenS

Boom Boom wrote:

I think that's bullsh*t. If Harper wins a majority, I think it'll push this province back into full-on sovereignty mode, because no one here I know of wants the Cons with a majority.

That is predicated on so many mythologies that it is sad BB.

Just one: we've had Harper government for 5 + plus years now. Please explain the huge compelling difference you see when a majority is 4 years more, and another minority is generally at least another 2 and a half years.

The categorical difference is what now?

And with the Bloc being the only plausible handmaiden for a continued Harper minority, the wisdom of supporting them to lessen harm is what now?

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

You obviously don't fear a Harper majority, unless I'm not reading you right.

KenS

What could push people towards soverirgnty is a Harper government that ratchets up the substance of what people do not like. What people think now that they will think if there is a Harper majority, is not going to push a single person towards sovereignty.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Yes, I agree with the first part, not the second. I'm in Facebook conversations with people, and all of them support sovereignty if the Cons get a majority (including a few people in Ontario who have stated they will move to an independent Quebec under a Harper majority). No one expects life in Quebec will be bearable under an alienating Harper majority. But, of course, we're just a handful of people in a huge province.

KenS

Even your limited group you are talking about BB- that is just what you say now. What you say when and if there is actually a Harper majority is what matters.

But as to what you think now- are you writing up a pact to jump off a cliff if Harper gets a majority? That would be the consistent thing to do.